The new stage of Russian-Azerbaijani dialogue. What is Bayramov’s Muscovite hiding?

While Armenian-Russian relations are at a dead end, signs of normalization are emerging in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Jeihun Bayramov is on an official visit to Moscow, he is scheduled to meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov. This was announced yesterday by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.

“On July 16-17, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan will pay an official visit to the Russian Federation, and his negotiations will take place with the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov,” Zakharova said during the briefing.

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement ahead of the visit, noting that peace and stability in the South Caucasus are important for Russia, and Moscow is ready to help normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. “Peace and stability in the South Caucasus are important for us. As before, we are ready to provide the required support in the full normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including the signing of a peace treaty, border demarcation and unblocking of communications,” said the statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry. It is noted that the road maps of these processes are included in the tripartite declarations signed at the highest level in 2020-2022.

In addition, the announcement states that the 33 regional cooperation platform uniting Russia, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia has significant potential. This mechanism is designed to contribute to the solution of any regional problem and challenge by the countries of the region and their neighbors without external destructive intervention.

The Russian Foreign Ministry considers Jeyhun Bayramov’s visit in the context of the continuation of reliable Russian-Azerbaijani political dialogue and the further expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation.

It should be noted that earlier the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan also informed that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country Jeihun Bayramov left for Russia on an official visit. On July 17, he will hold talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

It is noteworthy that literally a few days before this visit, while speaking at the IV Global Media Forum in Shushi, Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan-Russia relations have been completely settled.

He also said that Baku attaches great importance to relations with Russia and carefully follows the statements of Russian official circles. “We have seen the statements of Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, according to which relations between our countries are developing with positive dynamics,” said the President of Azerbaijan.

Aliyev admitted that there were some difficulties in the relationship, but, according to him, that phase is already in the past.

“I would say that the relations have been completely settled,” he announced.

According to the President of Azerbaijan, the contacts at different levels continue. He noted that there is active cooperation between the governments, the co-chairs of the intergovernmental commission, the ministries of foreign affairs and the staffs of the presidents of the two countries.

Aliyev also noted that Azerbaijan-Russia relations are important not only for bilateral cooperation, but also for the wider region. According to him, the cooperation includes both traditional and new directions to be formed in the future, among which the fields of transport, trade and humanitarian cooperation are of particular importance.

Along with this, during that media forum, Aliyev made a very unpleasant statement for Moscow, stating that Baku “unconditionally defends the territorial integrity of Ukraine”. Aliyev also called on the official Kyiv “not to put up with the occupation of Ukrainian lands”.

Responding to this, the press spokesman of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, said: “Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s view on Ukraine is wrong.”

He also made it clear that the Russian Federation will explain consistently and in a justified way through all channels why it considers [Aliyev’s approaches] wrong. Along with all this, Azerbaijani mass media report that Bayramov’s visit to Moscow will be followed by his visit to Ukraine, which is a so-called balancing attempt by Azerbaijan.

Bairamov’s visit to Moscow and the statements of both Baku and Moscow that preceded it show that the parties are consciously trying to end the recent phase of tension and return relations to the logic of practical cooperation.

It is noteworthy that ahead of the visit, Moscow not only emphasized the continuity of the Russian-Azerbaijani “trustworthy political dialogue”, but also specially emphasized the relevance of the tripartite agreements of 2020-2022 and the importance of the “3 3” regional format. This once again proves that Russia is trying to restore its political presence and influence in the South Caucasus, through the very agendas that were gradually pushed out in recent years as a result of Western activity.

In that context, Baku, for its part, shows readiness not to deepen differences and to return relations to the field of predictable cooperation.

At the same time, it is noteworthy that even after Aliyev’s sensitive statements for Moscow regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the Russian reaction remained restrained and limited to the registration of political disagreement.

The Kremlin avoided harsh measures, and just a few days later, Bairamov’s official visit was already announced. This indicates that in both capitals the strategic calculation prevails over the current disagreements.

Azerbaijan, maintaining the possibility of foreign political maneuvering and continuing the multi-vector policy, at the same time tries not to jeopardize the cooperation with Russia.

Against this background, the current picture of Armenian-Russian relations becomes more pronounced. If the parties in the Russian-Azerbaijani direction are talking publicly about dialogue, expansion of cooperation and restoration of mutual trust, such political impulses are not considered in the Armenian-Russian relations for now.

Moreover, the limited nature of high-level political contacts between Yerevan and Moscow in recent months, mutually critical statements and fundamental disagreements indicate that relations remain at a difficult stage. Under these conditions, Russia is actually trying to maintain the partnership support in the South Caucasus, which it sees today in its relations with Azerbaijan.

Therefore, Bayramov’s visit to Moscow is difficult to consider only as another diplomatic contact. It is a broader political impulse that Baku is interested in the stabilization of relations with Russia and does not want individual conflicts to affect bilateral strategic cooperation.

Moscow, for its part, shows readiness to accept that approach in order to preserve its own positions in the South Caucasus and restore involvement in regional processes. However, time will tell to what extent this visit and Azerbaijani-Russian cooperation will satisfy Russian expectations.

Thus, if the atmosphere of mutual mistrust still prevails in the Armenian-Russian direction, then in Russian-Azerbaijani relations today there are already clear political impulses for the restoration of relations and easing of tension, which may turn into more substantive cooperation in the near future.

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