168: Russia-Armenia war has not started yet. today to the security of Syunik

In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan guestn: Researcher of “APRI Armenia” research institute, international scholar, candidate of historical sciences Sergey Melkonyan is

How many days has the Armenian media personality been? Konstantin Sokolov is the person named

Russian-born, Chicago-based private investor Konstantin Sokolov has been appointed chairman of the US State Department’s new venture fund, which will oversee $201 million in investments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This was reported by The Guardian.

The fund plans to finance projects in the fields of transportation, energy infrastructure and important minerals in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, as well as in a number of Central Asian countries.

According to the newspaper, Sokolov has not previously held a public office, but during Trump’s second presidential term, he donated more than $12 million to Republicans and political groups, including $11 million to the president’s Super PAC MAGA Inc.

The Tripp Foundation, founded by Sokolov, is named after Trump’s path to international peace and prosperity. we are talking about the 27-mile trade corridor passing through the south of Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to The Guardian, it is not yet clear what benefit he can personally get from the activities of the foundation and whether he will be paid for that position.

To remind, in 2024 In January, “MTS Armenia” left the Russian “MTS” group. The new owner of the company is the Cypriot Fedilco Group Limited, whose ultimate beneficiaries are Zhe Zhang and Konstantin Sokolov.

“Hetq” found out that in the initial stage of the transaction, persons (Manolis Tarkhanidis, Andreas Ouris) appeared, who, according to the investigation, did not have the appropriate financial capacity to acquire one of the largest taxpayers in Armenia. They were only “on paper” owners in connection with the same companies providing services.

It wasn’t until months later, when the deal was redrafted, that new names were announced: Zhe Zhang and Konstantin Sokolov.

Even when their names became known, the origin of the money remained “dark”. The involvement of these same persons (Zhe Zhang) in the sale and management of another major transaction, “Arybusinessbank”, shows that we are dealing with a group operating through offshore structures, which specializes in hidden asset management.

Recently, it became known that the Russian “VTB” bank has officially left the management of the Teghut copper-molybdenum mine by selling its share. The new owners of the mine include American businessman Konstantin Sokolov, who is also one of the owners of “MTS Armenia” (now “Viva Armenia”). The exit of VTB was due to the sanctions applied against Russia, which hindered the financial transactions and exports of the company belonging to the bank.

To remind, the bank got control over the mine in 2018, as a result of not repaying the credit obligations of “Vallex Group”. Teghut is one of the largest mining assets in Armenia and in 2025, it paid 14.4 billion drams in taxes to the state budget.

Who is he, what kind of connections does he have with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the American and Israeli political and economic elites?

The main theses of the interview with Sergey Melkonyan are below.

• I do not think that the appointment of Konstantin Sokolov is a compromise with Russia, because the latter has ties to the Trump family.

• I am pessimistic about the fate of TRIPP because Iran is a big obstacle to its construction. Iranian Ambassador Shirgholami announced that Armenia cannot cross Iran’s red lines regarding TRIPP. This is a deviation from the previous statement of the Iranian Foreign Ministry:

• As a result of the Iran-US war, something important for Armenia changed. In the Middle East, Iran was called a toothless dog that barks but does not bite. This war has shown that when it comes to Iran’s national security, it hits even those countries with which Iran has economic interests. It’s the same now. Iran has serious security concerns with the South Caucasus and, in particular, with TRIPP, and has stated this many times.

• Iran does not need TRIPP. Of course, Iran wants to be a part of the “Middle Corridor”. that is, the goods should come from the border of China to Kazakhstan, from there to Turkey through Turkmenistan and Iran, or through Nakhichevan and Armenia to Georgia and the Black Sea. That railway exists and operates.

By the way, that’s why during the war they hit the railway bridge in the direction of Iran-Turkmenistan, so that they wouldn’t get supplies either from Russia or China. However, the Iranians restored it within a few days.

• Even the large number of Azerbaijanis located in the north of Iran had a more anti-Azerbaijani stance during the war.

• Israel is interested in opening the so-called Zangezur Corridor. If this becomes a reality, Iran will be isolated from the north, and Iran understands this very well:

• The facts testify to the rise of Turkey’s role in the region. In the recent period, there have been no negative statements from the regional countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, unlike Iran. Russia very wrongly thinks that Turkey is playing its own game and has nothing to do with the West. Russia’s attitude changed in 2025. since December, and its trigger was the statement of Martha Kos that the energy systems of Armenia and Turkey should be united. From that moment on, Russia’s approach changed. However, Iran has always considered Turkey as an adversary in this region:

• I don’t think that Turkey wants to go to the US or NATO because they know that long-term agreements do not work with them. The point of conflict of their interests with the US was Syria, but they have no contradictions in other issues.

• Macron also understands that he cannot use leverage on Ankara to open or not open the Armenian-Turkish border. Therefore, they have to find other means to convince Turkey. According to them, the main obstacle is Aliyev. Many will probably remember the scandal that arose due to the statement made by the ambassador of Azerbaijan to Turkey. He was called to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. a part of the Turkish side supported him, and the other part strongly opposed it.

However, Turkish diplomats and experts who are more oriented towards the West are convinced that Turkey should maintain a certain distance from Azerbaijan and open the border with Armenia. But there is also another, wider scope. if we look at Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the largest nationalist force in Turkey, the “Nationalist Movement” party, a political ally of President Erdogan. statements, nationalist experts and some analysts close to the AKP (Justice and Development Party), we will be convinced that they believe that Azerbaijan is an extremely important ally, and it is not worth questioning or partially sacrificing that relationship for the sake of improving relations with Armenia or opening the border.

• It is clear that Armenia will not become a member of NATO. Even if we leave the CSTO now, and 20 years pass, it is almost impossible (the probability is less than 1%). The same applies to the European Union. If Armenia leaves the EAEU right now, technically we will have to go such a long way to become a member of the EU, which will last at least tens of years. We have the example of Georgia. Georgia, which has an Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU since 2014, still cannot export most of its agricultural products to EU countries. Moreover, Georgia is geographically closer to the EU. they deliver the goods to the port, from there they go to Bulgaria or Romania and already enter the European market. Meanwhile, we are not in a profitable position from that point of view and are even a few steps behind.

That’s why we need to be more realistic and think extremely pragmatically. What will be the economic and security consequences if we leave the EAEU and CSTO, and what will be our next step? Getting out of these structures should not be an end in itself. it should be a means to move in a specific direction. We need to understand how realistic it is to reach our destination and when we will reach it. 

Now, when some in Armenia insist that the country should leave the CSTO, adopt a non-aligned, neutral status, this means leaving the CSTO and removing the Russian military bases (the 102nd military base from Gyumri and the Erebuni military base). But it is necessary to understand what consequences it will have. Does Armenia today have enough potential to become a non-aligned neutral state? 

When we leave the CSTO and remove the Russian military base, a security vacuum is created. That vacuum cannot last long. it must be filled. We can do this ourselves only if we dramatically increase the number of our armed forces, have enough and high-quality weapons, and have other security arrangements that really work. Only then will the vacuum be filled. Otherwise, if a vacuum is created, other forces will definitely try to take advantage of that opportunity.

It is obvious that Russia can no longer be the full guarantor of security that we talked about until 2022. A lot has changed in the world after 2022. But the problem is that, in parallel, no other country is ready to undertake the same security obligations towards Armenia on paper. It turns out that we have agreements that do not work as we would like, but other countries are not ready to replace them either. 

There was only one country that was ready to take practical steps in that direction, and that was Iran, because de facto today, Iran is the main security guarantor of Syunik. Even Armenia, at the level of the Foreign Ministry, has officially announced that the further Azerbaijani advance during the September 2022 attack was stopped due to Iranian intervention. Everything is clear here for Iran. they openly declared that the borders of Armenia are a red line for them and are directly related to the security of Iran. Therefore, no one in Tehran doubts that they will take concrete steps if any problems arise in that direction. Therefore, it is extremely important to maintain this relationship until we ourselves restore the balance of power.” 

• The war with Russia has not started yet. As long as there is no such war, we currently have diplomatic relations, trade in certain directions, direct communication, etc., and we also import some goods from Russia. Of course, Russia has many other means that it can use against us, and it is not only about gas and wheat.

  If there was a political decision, and Russia wanted to collapse Armenia, they would do it with a very simple tool, completely zeroing out trade. For example, they would not just raise the price of gas, they would unilaterally withdraw from the contracts and completely stop the supply, they would do the same with wheat, completely freeze financial transactions (transactions) and completely cancel air traffic. In that case, yes, we would be on the verge of economic collapse, and that would be the real economic war.

  What is happening now are just signals from Russia about what the consequences could be after December 2026 (the EAEU has given time until December). Now Russia is waiting for the EAEU summit to be held in St. Petersburg. During that summit, EAEU member states and representatives of the structure are preparing to present reports on what the consequences could be if Armenia continues its path to the EU. If a consensus approach is formed there that this is an economic problem for the EAEU, then the restrictions applied by Russia will no longer be unilateral.

  Now those steps are not considered legitimate, because they were decided unilaterally, but if the other EAEU member states also declare that there are problems here, then collective decisions will be made regarding gas, wheat, and all other issues.

• Yes, Russia’s sanctions are political, not economic, but by choosing that period for those sanctions, it was perceived that they are related to the ongoing NA elections in Armenia, which is not the case, and those sanctions will continue at least until December. The problem is Armenia’s steps towards the European Union. Russia and Europe openly view each other as adversaries, and Russia views Armenia’s rapprochement with Russia as siding with the enemy. There is a perception in Russia that Armenia is no longer sovereign and cannot make independent decisions.

• There is not enough gas in Azerbaijan. Although they can agree to exchange Turkish gas through Iran or Azerbaijan itself, theoretically now we cannot say for sure that it will work in practice.

As for oil, Iran even offered us to establish various oil refineries on the border and process oil. It would allow us to become self-sufficient and have our own resources. But the problem is that diversification can also create new dependencies. Diversification is an extremely important phenomenon, but it should not be misinterpreted. 

Of course, there are no fully self-sufficient countries in the world. When the RA authorities say that sovereignty is when you depend on many, as a result, you make Armenia dependent on Turkey and Azerbaijan. In fact, in some areas, we simply replace our dependence on one country with another country, and in this case, one of those countries is Turkey itself. 

For example, India has become such a partner in the military-technical field. If earlier we received approximately 80-90% of our weapons from Russia, now we receive about 70% of them from India. God forbid, if a full-scale war breaks out between two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, or if the war in Iran becomes more prolonged and large-scale, we will have serious problems with arms supplies from India. 

Therefore, diversification is important, but it does not mean simply replacing dependence on one partner with another. That is why I claim that the best solution is self-sufficiency, when all strategic assets, such as the railway, gas pipeline, etc., are exclusively in the hands of Armenia. And where we cannot ensure our self-sufficiency on our own (for example, regarding the nuclear power plant), yes, there must be an external partner. However, it is dangerous when you simply divide everything and give it to one or several different countries.

• Pakistan has always been on Azerbaijan’s side and has always had a negative attitude towards Armenia. I believe that Armenia’s establishment of diplomatic relations with Pakistan is related to its ambitions for membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Pakistan is an important partner for Iran, but they understand that Pakistan’s activity in the region strengthens Turkey and Azerbaijan. We should not think that others do not understand what is happening here:

• Russia’s latest sanctions against Armenia harm the Armenian people more than the government. And if they make a decision on gas prices, we will feel it on our skin this winter. We can be ready for cold winters, we are ready to go this way, if its result is 1994. victory will be. Purpose is important. But why go down that road just to be a sticking point in the Russia-West conflict? Unfortunately, there is no special attitude towards Armenia in Russia.

• The ultimate goal of Azerbaijan here is to establish “West Azerbaijan”. Azerbaijan does not only want the “enclaves”, but the roads leading to them. This is called the “salami tactic”. The only place where “West Azerbaijan” office was officially opened is Turkey. Therefore, one cannot separate their goals and have illusions that Turkey and Azerbaijan are playing different games:

• There are discussions in Azerbaijan that maybe Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan should think about getting observer status in the Organization of Turkic States. According to them, since we are neighboring countries, and certain communications that will connect these states must pass through our territory, Armenia can be given observer status. This idea has been circulating in Azerbaijani expert circles for at least a year or two. 

It should be noted that this idea contains the greatest risks related to political, economic, identity and sovereignty for Armenia. TPC is based on Turkic identity and cultural commonality. In case of Armenia’s participation in this structure, its own national identity and national values ​​will be sacrificed. The relations with the important countries of the region, Iran and Russia, will be disrupted, because the TPC’s goal is to assume an influential role in the region.  In addition, in order to expand the regional influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan, which are hostile towards Armenia, to completely absorb Armenia.

For the TPC, the involvement of new countries, including Armenia or Georgia, aims not only to ensure economic integration, but also to geopolitically isolate Armenia, putting it within the framework of the structure operating in their sphere of influence. 

• If Israel continues the process of recognizing the Armenian Genocide, it will only be beneficial. The Israeli intelligentsia was in favor of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, but when they saw that it endangered Israeli-Azerbaijani relations, they withdrew. In any case, there is no such agenda in the Knesset.

• What is happening now around Iran is a war to change the status quo in the Persian Gulf. The uniqueness of this phase of war is that Israel is not involved in this process. Right now, the US is at war with Iran without Israel. This is certainly a success for Israel. 2025 In the war, the US did not achieve a change in the status quo, but Iran achieved that the Persian Gulf became the Persian Gulf and Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US saw that the Iranian people hated them, and millions showed it at Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral. Iran understands that the said memorandum was a pause before a new round of war. 

• Trump’s ratings are falling, and there are elections ahead, but now Trump is driven by purely economic interests:

• The strikes in the direction of Nakhichevan were Iran’s signal to Azerbaijan that if you take one more step, the consequences will be more severe. In Iran, they say, we will not allow to have a single United Arab Emirates in the north of Iran, which was used against Iran in this war. There is deep mistrust in Iran against Azerbaijan:

Details in the video.

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