Armenia is preparing to host two major summits in early May as the former Soviet country seeks closer ties with Europe while cautiously loosening its dependence on Russia.
Dozens of European leaders are expected to attend a European Political Community summit in Yerevan on May 4. The meeting will be followed on May 5 by the first EU-Armenia summit with the bloc’s senior officials.
The summits come as relations between Armenia and its traditional ally Russia have grown strained in recent years, partly because Russian peacekeepers failed to intervene during military conflicts with neighboring Azerbaijan.
Armenia says it is pursuing diversification
Under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, Armenia has formally pursued a strategy he calls “diversification,” seeking relations with both Russia and the West.
For Armenia, the EU summit is about telling the European Union “we are here and we are ready,” said Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on security issues in the South Caucasus.
“In reality, it’s a process where Armenia tries to establish relationships with the European Union,” said political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan.
Armenia, a country of 3 million people between Europe and Asia, signed a comprehensive partnership agreement with the European Union in 2017. The agreement deepened cooperation in trade and other areas.
Last year, Armenia adopted a law formally declaring its intention to apply for EU membership.
When EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos visited Armenia in March, she said “Armenia and the EU have never been closer.”
Yerevan has not submitted EU application
Armenia has not yet taken the formal step of submitting an EU membership application.
The country remains a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Moscow-led CSTO security alliance, though it froze its CSTO membership in 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia in April that it could not be a member of both blocs.
“It’s simply impossible by definition,” Putin told Pashinian.
For Europe, holding the meeting in Yerevan is a deliberate choice “to counter the narrative of Russian spheres of influence and to show Vladimir Putin that these countries … do not belong to him,” said Sebastien Maillard, a special adviser at the Jacques Delors Institute.
EU enlargement could take decades
The European Union has been slow on enlargement, with expansion fatigue in the bloc and Ukraine, which is fighting a Russian invasion, remaining a priority.
“We know countries, for example, Western Balkans, who are already in negotiation with the European Union for decades,” Iskandaryan said.
He said it could take decades for Armenia to become a member.
Opinion polls show most Armenians support European integration, while support for Russia has fallen sharply.
But many Armenians remain skeptical about whether EU membership is realistic and worry about further provoking Moscow.
“Everyone understands that Europe’s goal isn’t really to help us, but to push Russia out of the region,” said Armine Vanyan, a 52-year-old psychologist in Yerevan.
“There will be lots of statements about Europe being close to Armenia and ready to help, and then they’ll leave. After that, Russia will probably get even angrier,” hairdresser Susanna Melkonyan said of the upcoming summits.
Armenia balances between Europe and Russia
Armenia’s government has taken an increasingly distant tone toward Moscow, with authorities suggesting Russia is attempting to interfere in domestic politics.
Analysts say Russia has no incentive to walk away from Armenia.
With Georgia’s domestic politics divided over Russian influence and Azerbaijan forging closer ties with Europe and Türkiye, Armenia remains Moscow’s closest ally in the Caucasus.
If Russia cuts economic ties with Armenia, “they will lose the last instrument to impact the region,” Iskandaryan said.
For now, Armenia is trying to sit on “both chairs at the same time,” Vartanyan said.
On the streets of Yerevan, some Armenians said closer European ties could help the country become more independent from Russia, even if EU membership remains distant.
“We all know Armenia won’t be joining the EU anytime soon—not today, not tomorrow, not in the near future. But closer ties could help us become more independent from Russia,” said Manush Ghevondyan, a 58-year-old out-of-work accountant.
“At the same time, it shouldn’t happen too abruptly or at the cost of making Russia an enemy,” she added.