National Assembly of Armenia in 2026 June elections, as it is already known, attracted the attention of not only the Armenian public, but also of various international actors and are widely characterized as “geopolitical elections” between different poles.
There is nothing surprising in that context. The geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus, which derives primarily from its geographical position and relief, constantly makes it an object of competition not only between regional but also global powers. There is no doubt that the Armenian elections will be essential for the future power balance and security architecture of the region and will affect all Eurasian processes. Therefore, almost all the forces with their interests in this region will be openly interested in the Armenian topic in the coming weeks.
Naturally, neighboring Turkey is not an exception to all of this, where the June parliamentary elections are being watched with great attention. One of the most vivid evidences of that attention could be witnessed in 2026. in January, when Turkish Foreign Minister H. Fidan announced on the air of one of the Turkish TV stations. “In June 2026, there will be elections in Armenia, which will be an important part of this process (the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process – ed.). We see that the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, is currently the leader in public opinion polls. We sincerely support the constructive role he is playing in this matter.
This approach, this will must continue” [1]. Although Fidan’s statement really referred to the Armenian elections and actually gave indirect support to Prime Minister Pashinyan, referring to sociological polls and stating that the latter is a “leader”, the wording in it can be characterized as cautious, therefore, giving rise to misinterpretation.
Considering the importance and sensitivity of the issue, Fidan’s statement became the reason for heated discussions regarding Turkey’s interventions against Armenia’s sovereignty, the core of which was the following question: can the Turkish diplomat’s statement be considered an external intervention by Turkey in the internal Armenian processes[2]? If we put aside the above-mentioned subject of discussion and the issue of predisposition to intervene, it is an indisputable fact that at the highest leadership level in Turkey, they are closely following the events taking place in Armenia, being well aware of the results of public opinion polls (it is not known whether public opinion polls served as the basis for the Turkish diplomat’s claims).
However, the Turkish Foreign Minister’s statement is not the only example that shows interest in the electoral and, in general, political processes in Armenia. Many other examples testifying to this (which are not always known to the Armenian public) can be found regularly in the Turkish media (it can also be assumed that their number will increase even more in the coming weeks).
From this point of view, three column articles published in well-known Turkish magazines in recent days, the authors of which are three Turkish diplomats who were on a private visit to Armenia at the end of April, are interesting.
“Understanding the pre-election atmosphere”
On April 26, three Turkish diplomats arrived in Yerevan: former ambassadors Omer Onhon, Hasan Gyoghush and Hasan Servet Octem. In the latter’s biography, in addition to the fact that he worked as the ambassador of Turkey in different countries, it is also mentioned that he was injured in 1984. During the revenge operation organized by “ASALA” on the Turkish embassy in Tehran. All three diplomats now carry out expert activities and are specialists of the “Ankara Politikalar Merkezi – APM” analytical center.
Despite the “private” nature of the visit, according to the diplomats, it provided an opportunity to “observe first-hand the situation in the country before the elections” and “meet with important persons of Armenia and understand the pre-election atmosphere”[3]. In their articles published as a result of their trip to Yerevan, Turkish diplomats, in addition to observations of a touristic nature and evaluations containing Turkish anti-Armenian propaganda, which has already become a classic, also address the political situation.
In this regard, they advance two main theses. The first thesis is that the policy pursued by the current RA government is correct. This is how Ambassador Gyoghush describes the political situation in Armenia and the position of Turkey. “Pashinyan, having made the right choice and refusing to talk about genocide claims on the international stage, is moving towards the normalization of relations with Turkey without preconditions. In a country where hostility towards Turks has been generated for 100 years, this is a very brave step for the leader who lost the war three years ago. … Many are convinced that support for Pashinyan from Turkey a month before the elections can have the opposite effect.” Gyoghush also refers to the demand to change the RA constitution. “Now the biggest obstacle to the regulation of relations in 1991 is the Armenian constitution (the Turkish diplomat probably means the 1990 Declaration of Independence – ed.). … Noting that those problematic articles of the constitution should be changed, Pashinyan has taken another brave step, but there is no possibility to do something like that before the elections.”
Ambassador Octem makes a similar assessment. “The political situation of Armenia can be briefly described as follows. We have been following with satisfaction the progress of Armenia in the direction of peace and regional cooperation in recent years. Armenia, leaving Russia and turning towards the West, is taking appropriate steps in the right direction. Together, we see that Prime Minister Pashinyan is on the verge of pulling the country out of the mud. … In order to sign the peace treaty, it is expected that the reference to the Declaration of Independence will be removed from the preamble of the Constitution. There is a certainty that Pashinyan will remove this last obstacle after the elections.”
Embassy support
The second thesis of Turkish diplomats refers to the elections themselves. In them, there is undisguised support for the current ruling power in Armenia. Ambassador Octem, claiming that Pashinyan is the likely winner of the elections, sums up the significance of the elections in this way. “Armenian voters will go to the polls on June 7 and will decide the future of the country with their free will. If he wants peace, prosperity and democracy, Pashinyan’s party is the right address. Those who want Armenia to remain Russia’s backyard, let them vote for Samvel Karapetyan. Turkey is ready to extend a hand of friendship to its neighbor Armenia, which has signed a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, is ready to open its borders, start diplomatic relations, in short, settle relations. Under the leadership of Pashinyan… Armenia will have good relations with its neighbors. … It is up to the voters of Armenia to agree to this. We hope it will happen.”
At the same time, the author labels other political forces, characterizing the ARF as “War-fighting Armenian nationalists leading Armenia to disasters”, the Armenian Apostolic Church as “opponents of the peace policy”, and the force led by Samvel Karapetyan, actually linking it to Russia.
Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan
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