Armenian Election Results Inspire Pro-Western Forces in Georgia

Executive Summary:

• Georgian officials congratulated Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on his victory in the parliamentary elections in Armenia, expressing hope for strengthening Georgian–Armenian ties.
• Many Georgians followed the Armenian elections with great attention, even excitement, as these elections largely determine the future of peace and Western integration of the entire South Caucasus, including Georgia.
• Pro-Western forces in Georgia view the victory of pro-Western forces in neighboring Armenia as an argument for restoring Georgia’s trajectory toward integration with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union and further distancing itself from Russia.

On June 8, just several hours after the closing of polling stations in Armenia’s pivotal parliamentary elections and even before Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan officially declared victory for his Civil Contract party, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated him on his party’s success. Writing on X, Kobakhidze expressed his readiness to deepen friendly relations between the two countries (X/@PM_Kobakhidze, June 7; Armenpress, June 8). Georgian Parliamentary Speaker Shalva Papuashvili on June 8 wished Pashinyan and his party success, saying Georgia attaches great importance to the positive dynamics emerging in the South Caucasus. In his remarks, Papuashvili noted that the path toward a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the opening of borders, and the ongoing dialogue between the two countries were important developments for the region. He stated, “Peace and stability in the region are important for us, and Georgia alone cannot ensure them. All countries in the region must be committed to this goal” (Interpressnews, June 8). Former President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili wrote on X, “Armenia, your fight is our fight; these elections will determine your democratic European future. We stand with you!” (X/@Zourabichvili_S; OC-Media, June 7). The Armenian elections are as important for Georgia as they are for the future of the whole South Caucasus, shaping the region’s trajectory toward peace and Western integration.

Before the parliamentary elections, former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili addressed Armenian voters in a Facebook post, urging them not to “repeat Georgia’s mistake” and to avoid voting for the party of Russian-backed oligarch Samvel Karapetyan (Facebook/GeorgiaToday, May 28). He was alluding to the informal leader of Georgia, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, and his ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 1, 2012 (Commonspace, October 9, 2012). After Armenia’s elections, Saakashvili, who is currently held at Rustavi Prison in Georgia, serving a cumulative 12.5-year prison sentence following convictions for abuse of power, wrote on Facebook that the results will determine Georgia’s fate, the fate of all the South Caucasus, and the fate of Russia. He wrote:

The Armenian people did not succumb to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s direct blackmail, did not listen to propaganda and rumors, did not sell out for money and empty promises, and re-elected Pashinyan. With this choice, they made Armenia’s move toward the West irreversible (Facebook/SaakashviliMikheil, June 8).

Pashinyan was no less complimentary than his Georgian colleagues. Speaking to journalists after casting his ballot, Pashinyan responded to a question from Georgian television outlet Imedi regarding the future of bilateral relations between the two neighbors if his party secures a victory in the elections. He stated, “We have a very good relationship with Georgia. I honestly do not know what could be better or deeper than the relationship we currently share” (Imedi, June 7). He added,“There are numerous political and strategic issues on which we will continue our cooperation. We will bring these connections even closer and deepen them further” (OC-Media; SOVA, June 7; Business Insider, June 8)

Since 1992, when Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan became independent states, Tbilisi has attempted to maintain a balance between Baku and Yerevan. Georgian governments have tried to pursue this “policy of balance” for over 30 years. As a result of tectonic geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus following the Second Karabakh War, the launch of the Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and Türkiye through Armenia’s Syunik province, as well as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, however, Georgia is beginning to discuss new challenges, risks, and opportunities opening up for the entire region.

Teona Akubardia, the deputy secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council in 2014–2018 and deputy chair of the Defense and Security Parliamentary Committee in 2021–2024, noted in her June 8 interview with this author that parliamentary elections in Armenia mark a pivotal turning point for the South Caucasus. “Despite the Kremlin’s intensive deployment of hybrid tactics—including widespread disinformation and economic blackmail—the Armenian electorate decisively rejected Russian regional hegemony in favor of a Western-oriented future,” Akubardia said. She further argued, “This outcome signals a profound strategic failure for Moscow. Much like its recent political setbacks in Moldova, the Kremlin proved unable to manipulate the ballot box through its traditional levers.”

Akubardia went on, saying, “Yerevan’s democratic resilience demonstrates that even under intense asymmetric pressure, post-Soviet societies are increasingly choosing sovereignty and European integration over submission to Russian influence.” Akubardia continued, “The singular overarching question mark remaining is if, and when, Georgia under Georgian Dream rule will be capable of integrating into these newly emerging regional geopolitics” (Author’s interview June 8).

Roman Gotsiridze, the former president of the National Bank of Georgia in 2005–2007 and former member of parliament, is sure that Pashinyan’s win in Armenia is “a great victory not only for the neighboring country but Georgia as well.” He stated, “In the early years of independence, Georgia used to be a regional leader as a pro-Western and pro-European state in the South Caucasus.” Today, he says, “Armenia is becoming a leader as a democracy. Economically strong and independent Armenia and Azerbaijan strengthen Georgia as well” (Author’s interview, June 8).

Ghia Nodia from Ilia State University stated in his June 8 interview with this author that the victory of Pashinyan’s party in the Armenian elections gives him a mandate to complete or consolidate the normalization process with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. He noted, “If this policy succeeds, then we will have a completely different region in the South Caucasus.”  He added, “We used to be a region of conflicts, but now it can become a region of peace and development. This is a new opportunity for Armenia first of all but also for other neighboring countries.” Nodia concluded, “Unfortunately, Georgia has isolated itself from this process. Georgia is still to figure out how to take advantage of this new opportunity created by the process of normalization in the South Caucasus” (Author’s interview, June 8).

Paata Zakareishvili, Georgia’s state minister for reconciliation and civic equality in 2012–2016, pointed out in his June 8 interview with this author that, in his opinion, Pashinyan will continue the course he pursued previously, including in relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. He stated, “The Caucasus is becoming an attractive region for investors, and transport flows amid the events surrounding Iran and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Georgia will not lose its transit function now that a pro-Western leader has won in Armenia.” He referred to reflections from some Georgian experts who worried about the possibility of Georgia losing its transit role due to Armenia–Azerbaijan reconciliation and the development of TRIPP (Author’s interview, June 8).

The election results in Armenia and Pashinyan’s course toward bringing Armenia closer to Euro-Atlantic institutions are strengthening the positions of those forces in Georgia that have always been loyal to the integration course into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union.

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