On July 2, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Armenia. During the meeting with Nikol Pashinyan in the government building, addressing the question of how the EU supports Armenia in the energy sector, had said.

“Armenia needs a strategic, multi-layered and comprehensive approach to the issue of energy carriers.

That is why a group of experts from the EU will arrive in Armenia next week, we have rich experience with such a situation in Ukraine, Moldova, we have gone through it, we have accumulated a lot of experience, we ourselves have faced problems in the EU. At the same time, we are investing in regional energy security, opening new energy interconnection routes and supporting the formation of stronger regional energy networks. 25 million is included in that program.

International and energy issues expert Armen Manvelyan in other words, if the president of the European Commission is talking about the experience of Ukraine and Moldova, it may be the same experience of the EU, then the result of that experience is as follows: they completely cut off energy supplies from Russia and brought them from other sources.

“It was mainly the import of liquefied gas from the United States, the import increased from Qatar, they tried to develop solar and wind energy as an alternative to Russian gas and oil. This, in turn, led to the fact that electricity prices increased 3 times. In other words, this can be an alternative to what von der Leyen is offering to Armenia today.” 168.am–Armen Manvelyan said in a conversation with

According to the expert, taking into account the geographical position of Armenia, supplies from other countries to Armenia, in the case of gas, are not possible at all. It is possible to develop electricity in Armenia in connection with solar energy. However, the expert is sure that even in this case, if Armenia becomes completely dependent on solar energy, this means that electricity prices will have to be raised at least 3 times.

“If the president of the European Commission means this experiment, then this is a very bad experiment, the countries he mentioned did not gain a single gram from it, but on the contrary, they suffered, the population suffered, companies, the economy, etc. In particular, they do not have a positive experience to point to and say that they have done something positive.

If, for example, they stop the gas supply from Russia, this will only lead to the deterioration of the general situation of Armenia, the EU has no possibility to offer an alternative to this. The EU does not have gas, on the contrary, it is a gas importer, because the same von der Leyen went to Baku to buy new gas reserves, because they need gas. That’s why when they announce that they offer an alternative to Armenia, it’s more of a political gimmick than a serious energy solution proposal,” emphasized Armen Manvelyan.

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During the last two months, the deep and systemic crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, which is accompanied by harsh rhetoric, serious economic restrictions, and interruption of normal political dialogue, has reached an unprecedented tension point.

Against this background, the day before Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Yekaterinburg and the meeting with the Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was an attempt not only to participate in the bilateral economic agenda, but also to restore the dialogue and prevent the further deepening of the crisis of relations by focusing on the issue of solving the economic problems that have arisen.

Pashinyan spoke about the “problematic issues” that have arisen in relations, stating that he expects to “discuss and resolve” them, and Mikhail Mishustin stated that Russia expects the development of Armenian-Russian relations “in the spirit of friendship, neighborliness, mutual respect and consideration of each other’s interests.”

Pashinyan also assured that Armenia is committed to the further development of relations with Russia both before and after the elections. “And, of course, we are interested in our participation in the EAEU and ensuring that the mechanisms provided for in the EAEU agreement work as intended,” he said.

Mishustin also emphasized that it is important for the Armenian government to continue creating a comfortable environment for Russian investors. According to him, Moscow expects that their rights and legal interests will be respected.

The closed part of the meeting, the negotiations lasted one and a half hours. However, the main question remains open. Did this meeting in Yekaterinburg become the beginning of the restoration of relations, normalization, or was it just a diplomatic pause without a political solution to the deep Armenian-Russian contradictions?

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that he does not think that the visit actually led to a serious unloading of bilateral relations, because the existing contradictions between Moscow and Yerevan remain fundamental and unchanged.

According to him, Russia does not separate politics and economy, it considers them in one system, whereas the Armenian side currently wants to maintain economic cooperation with the Russian Federation, that is, privileges, benefits without a political component, as it declares its desire for European integration.

“For Moscow, the issue is the “either-or” principle, requiring Armenia to specify its political vector, because it is not possible to simply combine the EAEU and the European Union. Therefore, if the political orientation is towards the EU, then the economy too, it is assumed that one day it will turn to the other side, so today the EAEU membership of RA is a temporary circumstance that solves the current economic problem.

On the other hand, Russia perceives the EU as a security and integration threat,” he said.

Khramchikhin recalled the recent high-level European visit to Armenia.

“The recent visit of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, to Yerevan proved that everything is very serious in the relations between Armenia and the EU. Therefore, in case of such systemic, deep-seated political disagreement, I do not think that the visit and meeting with Mishustin solves a serious political problem. It is more likely to think that it solves the issue of the continuation of the dialogue, but the deep contradictions and the political problem remain,” he said.

As a result, according to Khramchikhin, this visit should be considered not as a resolution of the crisis, but as a tactical step to postpone the escalation and alleviate the economic problems.

“However, in the political sphere, Armenia’s activity towards Europe and Russia’s demand to Armenia create a field of contradictions, where diplomatic rhetoric can no longer mask the difficult situation. One of the future milestones of Armenian-Russian relations may be the final rupture, if one of the parties does not make concessions. However, it seems unlikely at the moment,” said Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin.

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On July 1-2, the head of the European Commission, embroiled in corruption scandals, Ursula von der Leyen, was on a working visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is completely logical within the framework of the Brussels structures’ approaches to the formation of transport and communication corridors bypassing the Russian territory.

With the EU’s relations with Georgia seriously deteriorating in 2024-2025, Brussels has stopped funding infrastructure projects in the Caucasian country, turning its attention to its southern neighbors., which, after the events of 2020-2023 around Nagorno-Karabakh, are being considered as a potential unified logistics hub.

Apart from general pathos statements, being At the end of negotiations with Ilham Aliyev in Baku, he promised to allocate up to 200 million euros in grants for the development of transport, energy and digital connections in the South Caucasus. “Cglobal network» within the framework of the investment program, thein which «projects may include, for example, the creation of a railway connection through Nakhichevan and the development of the port of Baku»:

It is assumed that these investments will become a prelude to attracting another 2 billion euros, but the feasibility of these plans is unclear. The European guest proposed holding a regional investment conference in Baku with the participation of the EU, as well as the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. It is known that Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan are actively establishing political-diplomatic and trade-economic ties with their neighbors on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea, and in Brussels they are clearly trying to “keep their hand on the pulse”.

In December 2025, the modernization works of the local railway network began in Nakhichevan.

At the same time, it is planned to increase the capacity of Baku sea port to 25 million tons. The mentioned transport hubs are being actively promoted by the Azerbaijani authorities as key elements of the so-called Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as «middle aisle»։ In addition to establishing a regular ferry service between Aktau-Kurik and Baku ports, it will provide an additional connection «Trump way» implementation of the project, which is called in Baku «Zangezur Corridor»:

At the beginning of June, RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed a framework agreement with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the tripartite (“Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”) project.

In the Syunik Marz of Armenia, the surveying works have started, through which the communication lines (railway and ahighway, possibly fiber optic cable, etc.). Brussels initially supported the project, which was in the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey, and probably the head of the European Commission was discussing d:the possible involvement of Brussels not only in Baku, but also in Yerevan.

By the way, as a result of the negotiations with Nikol Pashinyan, quite modest numbers of monetary aid were announced. Armenia will receive 18 million euros: in: in addition to the previously promised 52 million euros for the diversification of foreign trade and 20 million euros «improving the lives of border communities» for which you have to share with your neighbors.

He has generously promised that the visa regime will be canceled until 2029 (!), but already this fall an evaluation mission is expected to assess the readiness for this fateful step. Moreover, no legal obligation Regarding the hypothetical accession of Armenia to the EU by Brussels (even as a candidate) in:as it was not, so it is not.

Thus, the resource-energy context of von der Leyen’s visit to the Caucasus, which is closely related to transportation projects, clearly overshadows the ideological mantras of “democracy” and “rule of law.” During his previous visit to Baku in July 2022, amid sanctions pressure on Moscow and a declared course to abandon Russian hydrocarbons, the head of the European Commission announced to at least double the capacity of the 3,500 km long so-called “Southern Gas Corridor” pipeline system stretching from the shores of the Caspian Sea to Europe by 2027 to 20 billion cubic meters per year. about the intention to increase to a meter. It must be admitted that certain results have been achieved. According to Aliyev, after 2022, EU gas exports have increased by about 65%.

Up to half of the gas exports of the Caspian Republic go to the countries of Southern and Central Europe, the list of which was recently supplemented by Slovakia, and most recently, in mid-June, Berlin and Baku signed an agreement on swap supplies of Azerbaijani gas to Germany. “The gas that three German companies have contracted from SOCAR, about 2 billion cubic meters per year, is very important for the stabilization of the European energy market,” the local media quoted German ambassador to Azerbaijan Ralf Horlemann as saying.

In addition to “traditional energy”, alternative energy is also being developed in Azerbaijan, attracting partners from various places. According to Aliyev, over the next 5-6 years, agreements with foreign and local companies will allow investment of around 8 gigawatts of solar and wind capacities, which will contribute to the strengthening of energy partnership. In 2024, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) joined the “Oil Gas Methane Partnership” program aimed at reducing methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Commenting on the nuances of the dialogue with Brussels, experts from Baku persistently emphasize that they expect concrete commitments and investments from their partners, not promises and even more so, admonitions.

At the beginning of May, addressing the participants of the “European Political Community” summit in Yerevan (including the same Frau Ursula), Ilham Aliyev drew attention to the destructive role of the European Parliament and PACE, in Baku’s opinion, which regularly adopt politically motivated resolutions. It is assumed that the emphasis is on pragmatism and mutual benefit in the dialogue with the European Commission and the governments of individual states.

The Europeans’ interest in the Caucasian transport corridors is due to the need to supply energy resources, rare earths and other metals, uranium and other goods, which are important for the development of the military-industrial complex of European countries (first of all, Germany and France). Taking into account the official Brussels, Berlin and Paris course of total confrontation with Moscow, the clash of interests is visible to the naked eye. And there is a persistent feeling that the South Caucasus will not be left out of this conflict.

Andrey Areshev

infoshos.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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