Nov 19 2023

In their previous outing, early goals from Lovro Majer and Andrej Kramarić helped them to a 2-0 away win over Latvia on Saturday.

Armenia held Wales to a 1-1 draw on Saturday, extending their winless run in all competitions to five games. Lucas Zelarayán opened the scoring in the fifth minute and it was an own goal from Nair Tiknizyan in added time of the first half that helped Wales earn a point from the match.

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• The two teams have squared off just twice in all competitions thus far, with one of the meetings being a friendly match. The hosts have enjoyed an unbeaten run in these games, recording one win and playing one draw.
• Both meetings between the two teams have produced under 2.5 goals, with the hosts outscoring the visitors 2-1 in these games.
• The hosts have outscored the visitors 12-9 in seven games in the qualifiers and also have the better defensive record, conceding six goals fewer (4).
• Croatia have lost just once at home in European qualifiers, with that loss coming against Turkey last month.
• Armenia have just two wins in their last 11 games in European qualifiers, suffering six defeats.

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Kockasti have won just one of their last three home games in all competitions. Nonetheless, they have failed to score just once in their last 12 home games in European qualifiers while recording nine wins and should be able to produce a strong outing.

Bruno Petković, Nikola Vlašić, and Mateo Kovačić are confirmed absentees for the hosts while Josip Juranović will face a late fitness test after missing out against Latvia.

Havakakan have never qualified for the Euros and have suffered 40 losses in their 68 appearances in the qualifiers. Five of their four goals in the qualifiers in this edition have come in away games and they will look to build on that record in this match. Varazdat Haroyan picked up his fifth yellow card of the qualifying campaign and will serve a suspension here.

Both teams will look to sign off for the qualifying campaign on a positive note but considering the home advantage for Vatreni, we expect them to register a narrow win.

Prediction: Croatia 2-1 Armenia

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Tip 1: Result – Croatia to win

Tip 2: Goals – Over/Under 2.5 Goals – Over 2.5 goals

Tip 3: At least a goal to be scored in the first half – Yes

Tip 4: Andrej Kramarić to score or assist any time – Yes

Foreign Brief

Nov 20 2023

Azerbaijan has declined an invitation from the US to participate in peace talks with Armenia in Washington today.

According to Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry, Azerbaijan would not send its foreign minister to participate in peace talks in the American capital due to the less-than-neutral stance of the administration of President Joe Biden on the ongoing crisis over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku has specifically cited testimony by US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien to the House of Representatives omitting references to Azerbaijani peace overtures to Armenia.

Azerbaijan’s decision is a significant blow to US efforts to present as an honest broker in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. On the micro level, it demonstrates a lack of unity and oversight within the State Department, criticized recently, for example, for internal dissent from some lower-level officials on the Biden administration’s policy toward Israel. On the macro level, expect the snub to help open the door for other interested brokers, like Turkey and Russia, to negotiate a peace agreement. The timing is especially poor for the US as Armenia and Azerbaijan have signalled—most recently at the latest meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Saturday—that Yerevan and Baku are moving closer to a treaty.

Anadolu Agency, Turkey

Nov 20 2023

ISTANBUL

Azerbaijan said Sunday that a statement issued by the French Foreign Ministry about a decision last week by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding the situation in Karabakh is “irrelevant and unacceptable.”

The ICJ issued an order on Friday which stipulates that Baku should ensure the safety of those who wish to depart Karabakh and that those who wish to stay must remain “free from the use of force or intimidation that may cause them to flee.”

The French Foreign Ministry said this corresponds to the position of Paris.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said “France’s disregard for the rejection by the Court of most of the unlawful requests by Armenia is another vivid example of double-standards and bias against Azerbaijan.”

“It is lamentable that this country, which has presented itself as the greatest advocate of justice and order, misinterprets and meddles in the Court’s affairs on a matter that has nothing to do with France,” it added.

It said that France should “focus on the implementation of orders that are related to it, including with regard to its notorious colonial policy and illegal acts, including related to nuclear tests.”

“Unlike France, Azerbaijan takes its international obligations seriously,” it added.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-calls-french-statement-on-icj-decision-on-karabakh-irrelevant-unacceptable-/3058906

Nov 20 2023

Belarus – Nov 20 2023

Nov 20 2023

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Tasmanian Times

Australia – Nov 20 2023

Nov 20 2023

After making it clear that France will not be sitting on the sidelines as war ravages Caucasian countries, French-made armored vehicles have reportedly been delivered to Armenia instead of Ukraine, as initially intended. France is now home to Europe’s most prominent Armenian diaspora community.

Armenia’s bolstered defense ties with the West and India have come at a time when it is decoupling with Russia, which remains preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine. Most recently, Yerevan decided against attending events of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) because it received no aid that it had requested during an Azerbaijani military incursion on its sovereign territory in May 2021.

The CSTO is a Russia-led inter-governmental security alliance of six post-Soviet states. The other members of CSTO, formed in 2002, are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

According to a French media outlet, “The first confirmed delivery (to Armenia) is of Bastion light armored vehicles manufactured by the equipment manufacturer Arquus. The Bastion can carry a battle group of eight soldiers, protecting against small arms fire and mines.”

The report indicated that France could also supply 50 VAB MK3 armored vehicles manufactured by Renault Trucks Defense. It provides armed forces with high-level protection and multi-mission capabilities.

Georgian authorities confirmed that France dispatched ACMAT Bastion armored personnel carriers to Armenia via the Port of Poti, also verified by APM Terminals Poti to RFE/RL’s Georgian service.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ayhan Hajizadeh, strongly criticized France’s supply of armored vehicles to Armenia. He expressed concern that this equipment transfer would bolster Armenia’s military strength.

The Bastion armored personnel carriers were initially intended to be supplied to Ukraine. But Kyiv rejected the 12.5-ton vehicles, contending they would be inadequately protected against artillery and anti-tank missiles. La Tribune had previously disclosed France’s plans to provide Kyiv with 20 Bastion vehicles in October 2022.

Following the declaration to bulwark Armenian defenses in October 2023, France has inked the deals for supplying Thales-manufactured Ground Master 200 (GM200) radars and signed a memorandum of understanding to deliver the Mistral short-range air defense system. According to France’s Ministry of the Armed Forces, a second contract was for Yerevan to acquire night vision goggles and equipment manufactured by Safran.

Speaking to reporters, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said that Armenia would buy three Ground Master 200 (GM200) radar systems from the French defense group Thales without providing financial details. The system, already used in Ukraine, is known for its “remarkable detection capabilities,” Lecornu asserted at a press conference alongside Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

In the coming months, the French government will send a French military official to act as a defense consultant for the Armenian executive branch on issues such as armed forces training, Lecornu said. France will be training Armenian soldiers and helping Yerevan audit Armenia’s air defense to identify blind spots.

Armenia has almost doubled its defense investments over the last year. In 2022, the spending was around US$700 million to US$800 million; now, in 2024, it will be US$1.4 billion or US $1.5 billion.

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

The defense contracts with India alone account for a billion dollars. In the latest order, as reported by the EurAsian Times, Armenia contracted Zen Technologies for INR340 crore (US$41.5 million) for the anti-drone system that includes both training solutions and the system.

Armenia, a small landlocked nation nestled in the South Caucasus region of Eurasia, has emerged as a strategic partner for India. In 2022, when India inked the deal to supply Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRL), anti-tank munitions, and ammunition worth US$250 million to Armenia, it was seen as New Delhi taking a position in the conflict. It was the first export of PINAKA by India.

Armenia opted for Pinaka MBRLs, considered at par with the American HIMARs, for its shoot and scoot capability. The mobility is an advantage as adversary Azerbaijan has been deploying drones, including suicide drones.

For some time now, Yerevan has sought to diversify its arms imports and find new allies after Russia failed to provide the country with ordered weapons worth around US$400 million (it has not yet returned the money).

The failed arms deal was an additional trigger in the worsening Russia-Armenia relations, which made Armenia seek to diversify the sources of its arms imports, looking at the West and India.

The European Union has also discussed providing non-lethal military aid to Armenia. During its November 13 meeting, the EU Foreign Affairs Council deliberated on enhancing the EU monitoring mission by sending more observers and patrols to the Armenian border. The Council emphasized vigilance against destabilization in Armenia and warned Azerbaijan against compromising its territorial integrity.

Armenia stopped participating in CSTO events after the 2020 war when the CSTO said that Nagorno-Karabakh was not a sovereign part of Armenia and the organization had no mandate to deal with such issues.

The Armenian government has said, “Azerbaijani troops entered the sovereign territory of Armenia in May 2021. We turned to the CSTO for help and have not received it until now,” Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan said on November 15.

• Ritu Sharma has been a journalist for over a decade, writing on defense, foreign affairs, and nuclear technology.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/france-supplies-armored-vehicles-to-armenia-planned/

Grey Dynamics

Nov 20 2023

JULIA DAY

Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region in the southern Caucasus that has been subject to a lengthy territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and neighbouring Armenia. While it is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, it was governed by the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, also referred to as the Republic of Artsakh. Nagorno-Karabakh consists of a large ethnic Armenian majority.

On September 19th, Azerjabaijani forces overwhelmed the defenders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, whose government believes it will cease to exist by January 2024. The conflict has caused a humanitarian crisis and mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the territory. Azerbaijan has rejected accusations of ethnic-cleansing in the region. 

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, expressed that the military operation has created “genuine prospects for a prompt peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. On October 26th, a potential agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was brokered. The “Crossroads of Peace” agreement would reopen roads and railways with Armenia’s neighbours, including Azerbaijan, that have been closed for decades.

Key Judgement 1. Western nations will likely confine their opposition to Azerbaijan’s intervention to diplomatic protest and humanitarian support in the next 6 months.  

Key Judgement 2. In the next 6 months, Iran will likely play a key role in mitigating Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. 

Key Judgement 3. In the next 6 months, Turkey will likely continue to maintain its military support for Azerbaijan despite the numerous humanitarian concerns in Karabakh.

a. Armenia asked the EU for humanitarian aid, including medical supplies and temporary shelters after the outbreak of the conflict in September. The office of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni said in a statement that Rome is working to promote stabilisation in the region [source]

b. While France promises to boost Armenia air defence with anti-air missiles, it is the only Western nation to do so. However, this escalation will not likely to renew any kind of military conflict. [source]

c. On October 3rd, the German government  called for a ‘permanent presence’ in Nagorno-Karabakh, calling for the need for ‘transparency’ and ‘trust’ in Azerbaijan to protect the rights of its residents. [source]

d. In September, Armenia asked the ICJ to order Azerbaijan to withdraw all its troops from civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh and to give the UN access. However it is now unlikely that the ICJ will intervene. [source]

a. On October 23rd, Iran hosted talks between Turkey, Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan regarding this conflict. Following these talks, both sides agreed that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. [source]

b. Iran is carefully navigating negotiations between both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since the initial breakout of the conflict, Iran has been calling for resolution through dialogue. [source]

c. From 2016 to 2020, Iran supplies Azerbaijan with an estimated 70 percent of its arms. [source]

d.  Iranian General Mohammad Baqeri said Azerbaijan was restoring its ‘territorial integrity” in its operation in Karabakh in September. [source]

a. In the week of October 22nd, Turkey and Azerbaijan participated in a joint military simulation on rural settlement combat. The exercise allegedly took place in Nagorno-Karabakh. [source]

b. The construction of the Nakhchivan gas pipeline will likely be completed in 2024, connecting through the Turkey, Azerbaijan border. On September 25th, Edrohan and Aliyev attended a ceremony to launch its construction. [source]

c. A long-time ally of Azerbaijan, Turkey has pledged its support for the military intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh. [source]

d. Erdohan has mentioned that Iran is warming up to a joint Turkish-Azeri transport corridor that would connect Turkey to Azerbaijan through Armenia. [source]

We are confident in our assessment that Nagorno-Karabakh will continue being a humanitarian crisis to the greater Caucasus region. This is based on our judgement of local and international press reports as well as NGO and Think Tank reporting. We assume that the “Crossroads of Peace” agreement will go through as planned.

Should this assumption be incorrect, we would expect to see a drawn out negotiation process. We considered the alternative that French military aid to Armenia will escalate the conflict, but judged it unlikely due to the ongoing communication efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Should this happen, we will reconsult with our sources and adjust our assessment accordingly.

Intelligence Cut-off Date:

Messenger, Georgia

Nov 20 2023

The delegation from the Parliament of Georgia actively participated in the 21st autumn meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly held in Yerevan.

As per the Parliament's press service, Nikoloz Samkharadze, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and leader of the permanent Georgian Parliament delegation, discussed the visit of OSCE President Pia Kauma and the delegation to Georgia, along with highlighting Georgia's regional role in his address.

Samkharadze conveyed Georgia's readiness to facilitate peace dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, offering Tbilisi as a potential venue for negotiations. He expressed hope that, with the commitment publicly expressed by both sides, lasting peace between the two brotherly neighboring countries could be achieved in the coming months.

"I believe it was a very timely visit to assess the current situation and explore the possibilities of establishing lasting peace in the South Caucasus. It was also crucial for the delegation to visit the occupation line and the settlements of internally displaced persons-individuals who have been unable to return to their homes for more than 15 years, with some enduring displacement for up to 30 years due to the Russian occupation. I would like to emphasize that Georgia is ready to facilitate the peace dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

We are prepared to offer Tbilisi as a venue for negotiations, and we hope that, with the commitment that both sides have publicly expressed and made, we will be able to celebrate lasting peace between our two brotherly neighboring countries in the coming months. From our side, Georgia is ready to facilitate the dialogue," said Samkharadze.

In response to the leader of the Georgian parliamentary delegation, Pia Kauma, the president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, expressed her pleasure in visiting Georgia and highlighted the significance of the moment. She noted that Georgia has been granted the status of a candidate for the European Union, with the official announcement expected in December.

Pia Kauma reaffirmed the OSCE's full support for Georgia's territorial integrity and emphasized the organization's commitment to promoting peace in the region, particularly between Armenia and Azerbaijan.