BAKU: Eurasian Union not to mean much in resolving issues as Karabak

Eurasian Union not to mean much in resolving issues as Karabakh – analyst

Tue 06 January 2015 14:23 GMT | 14:23 Local Time

News.Az interviews Dr. Hans Gutbrod, Caucasus Analyst, previously with
Caucasus Research Resource Centers.

There are some signs from Georgian and Russian sides to normalize
bilateral relations. But Russians says that they are not going to
discuss Georgia’s territorial integrity problem. How are the prospects
of rapprochement process in this regard?

Russia’s main leverage in the South Caucasus, next to energy supplies,
are questions of territorial integrity. It is unlikely that Russia
will move much, not least since it can offer a number of other
benefits in terms of trade, energy prices, and the status of migrant
workers. For now, Georgia is unlikely to make much progress on its
territorial integrity.

Do you believe that Russia will succeed to open railway with Georgia
via Abkhazia? Georgia is against this project, as it seems at the
moment.

Opening the railway between Georgia and Abkhazia would be great from
the point of view of infrastructure and transport connections. It
could also offer cheaper and reliable export routes for products from
Georgia, to the extent that Russia does not ban them. However, opening
that railway implies some sort of recognition of Abkhazia, for example
in dealing with customs. For this to become a realistic prospect,
Russia and Abkhazia would need to go a long way towards meeting
Georgian concerns. There are few signs of that the moment.

How can you explain the last activeness in Russia-Azerbaijan relations?

Russia has not been easy to read in the last year. Ukraine dominated
much of Russia’s external relationships, sometimes leading to
contradictory signs and reactions. The impression is that the Russian
elite itself has not quite made up its mind, whether to go for all-out
confrontation with Europe and the West, or whether to pursue more
limited aims. This has an impact on the South Caucasus, too. Russia is
engaging more, but also giving very mixed signals.

How can Armenia’s membership in Eurasian Union influence the Karabakh
settlement? And, by the way, do you believe that Azerbaijan may join
this organization?

The Eurasian Union is new and untested. Arguably, it is the union of
governments that have reasons to be afraid of their own people. Their
authoritarian leanings make them both strong – no checks and balances
– and vulnerable, as a political defeat almost always means exile or
jail, or even death. I do not think we can expect much
programmatically from the Eurasian Union, in setting policies that
matter to people. Nor will it mean very much in actually resolving
concrete issues such as Karabakh. The Eurasian Union is reactive,
there is little of a positive forward vision there, as of now.

http://news.az/articles/interviews/94766

Unintended humor: Looking for another friend in the greater Middle E

Looking for another friend in the greater Middle East
By Raoul Lowery Contreras
Jan. 5, 2015

[Contreras formerly wrote for the New American News Service of The New
York Times Syndicate.]

American interests around the world are hard to define sometimes.

The choices: To retrench to American borders with Canada and Mexico
and ignore the world, its problems and commerce, as suggested by one
Republican candidate for president (Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky); or,
to involve ourselves in the world, as advocated by another potential
Republican candidate for president (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida).

Is it in America’s interest to protect international shipping through
the faraway Straits of Malacca, Panama’s Panama Canal or to protect
Persian Gulf oil as it transits the bordered-by-Iran Straits of
Hormuz? Yes.

Is it in America’s interest to seek more friends where a rare friend ‘
Israel ‘ is attacked regularly by enemies seeking to obliterate it?

Besides Israel, Turkey is supposed to be a friend; Turkey is a NATO
partner with whom we have fought side-by-side (in the Korean War), but
whose loyalty faltered when the U.S. asked for transit privileges for
U.S. Army troops when we invaded next-door Iraq in 2003. Turkey
refused transit. Today, it sits idly by while Syrian Kurdish militia
with American air support fight a fanatic Muslim army on its border.
Turkey cannot be counted on by the U.S.

In the final analysis, Sunni Muslim nations tend to side with us on
the question of relations with Shiite Iran while simultaneously siding
and financing Palestinian groups who prefer to erase Israel from the
map.

Recognizing the worldwide importance of the Middle East and its oil,
we must be present there with arms, resources ‘ and friends.

We must protect friendly oil-producing countries from their enemies ‘
domestic and foreign ‘ and protecting the movement of their oil to
world markets is by default an American responsibility; to protect, we
must be militarily and politically omnipresent.

We are the only country able to protect the world, or the world’s oil.
The world runs on oil. We need friends, also, to help protect free
world non-Russian and non-Iranian energy resources.

Are there any potential new friends we need to deal with in the 24/7
boiling cauldron of the Middle East? Pakistan and the former Soviet
“Stan” countries shift like tectonic plates at their financial
convenience. Turkey has surrendered its NATO loyalty to Islamist
fundamentalism. Sunni Muslim nations prefer to write checks than to
put soldiers on the ground against fellow Muslims. Iraqi Muslim
soldiers, paid for and trained by the U.S. Army, throw down their
weapons and disappear just like they did when the U.S. Army and U.S.
Marines ran through them.

We need to depend on Israel and its friends for help. Israel has few
friends ‘ thus it surprises us that one is Muslim.

Azerbaijan is 70 percent Shiite Muslim. The South Caucasus country
borders Russia on the north; Iran on the south; Armenia, Georgia and
Turkey on the west. Its population is 9.5 million with another 25
million Azeris in Iran, its southern next-door neighbor. Unlike
Armenia, Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan has a stellar record of treating
its 20,000 to 30,000 Jews well since independence (1991) from two
centuries of Russian domination.

Because it is a true friend and major oil and natural gas producer for
Israel and the West, and has been for over a century, Azerbaijan is
like an irritant pebble in an oyster of international miscreants ‘ the
Russians, Iranians and Armenians.

It supplies Israel with 50 percent of its oil needs and buys most of
its weaponry from it. The United States won’t sell weapons to it
because of its ongoing conflict with next-door Armenia, which seized
almost 20 percent of Azeri territory in 1992.

Twenty-three years ago, Armenian soldiers supported by Russian troops
attacked an army-less newly independent Azerbaijan and seized a large
portion of the country. Armenia expelled almost 1 million Azeris from
their homes in the conquered territory while committing a massacre of
an entire Azeri community in the town of Kohjaly.

Eyewitness American and European journalists described the bloody
scene of massacre littered with disfigured bodies of men, women and
children in dispatches published at the time. One word is applicable
in this case: genocide.

Azerbaijan wants to be friends with the United States like it is with
Israel. Defying any logic, the Obama administration prefers not to
deal with Israel’s friend.

In fact, despite Russian designs on Azeri oil and independence and
current tremendous pressure to make Azerbaijan part of the Russian-led
Eurasian Union, the Obama administration yields the field to Russia in
the South Caucasus in the settlement of what the Russians call the
Armenian-Azeri “frozen conflict” that has cost an estimated 30,000
lives and 1 million uprooted Azeri refugees.

The perception of Azerbaijan held by the Obama administration seems to
be reflected in a New York Times article by David Herszenhorn about
national elections in 2013: “A prominent delegation of election
observers … sharply criticized Azerbaijan’s presidential election as
unfair and rife with fraud, amid aggressive efforts by the Azerbaijan
government and its allies to portray the vote as legitimate.”

Later in the same story we find: “[O]bservers from other delegations,
including a group of former members of the United States House of
Representatives, said the voting … was clean and efficient. …
Former Representative Michael E. McMahon, a Democrat from Staten
Island [N.Y.], called the vote ‘honest, fair and really efficient.
There were much shorter lines than in America, and no hanging chads.'”

Take your pick.

We need another strong friend in the greater Middle East. Israel knows
one. I know one too.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/228452-looking-for-another-friend-in-the-greater-middle-east

ISTANBUL: Turks, Armenians meet at symposium in centennial year of f

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Jan 5 2015

Turks, Armenians meet at symposium in centennial year of forced migration

January 05, 2015, Monday/ 18:46:34/ MÃ`LEYKE BARUTÇU / ISTANBUL

Turks and Armenians met in İstanbul on Monday to discuss the
historical background of Turkish-Armenian relations in a year that
marks the centennial of the forced migration of Armenians from Ottoman
soil in 1915.

The three-day-long symposium, titled `Turkish-Armenian relations in
the 19th and 20th centuries,’ is being organized by the İstanbul
Metropolitan Municipality, İstanbul University and the İstanbul branch
of Turk Ocakları in an effort to bring together Turks and Armenians in
this symbolically important year.

Archbishop Aram AteÅ?yan, the Armenian patriarch based in İstanbul, and
President of Turk Ocakları Dr. Cezmi Bayram delivered opening speeches
at the symposium. AteÃ…?yan said that although the patriarch should stay
out of politics, it is important to make constructive contributions
when the issue is about improving relations. Stating that Turks and
Armenians are like two children who grew up in the same cradle,
AteÃ…?yan noted that these two children are supposed to walk into the
future hand-in-hand, though past pains and sorrows cannot be forgotten
and losses cannot be restored. According to AteÃ…?yan, these two injured
children can only be healed by impartial doctors on both sides, as the
involvement of foreign doctors would only worsen the situation.
AteÃ…?yan also noted that talking about the negativities of the Armenian
diaspora does not do any good and such a vicious cycle should end.

Tatul AnuÃ…?yan, a priest who spoke in one of the sessions about the
history of Armenians and the patriarchate, said he is hopeful about
mending bridges between the two nations.

Deputy Rector Mustafa Ak emphasized the importance of dialogue for
peaceful coexistence, adding that instead of looking for scapegoats,
avoiding the repetition of mistakes should be prioritized. According
to him, progress could be made in Turkish-Armenian relations through
dialogue.

On Tuesday night, as a side event to the symposium, a concert will be
held featuring songs of Armenian composers in Turkey.

http://www.todayszaman.com/national_turks-armenians-meet-at-symposium-in-centennial-year-of-forced-migration_368958.html

ISTANBUL: Polarization will continue in 2015

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Jan 4 2015

Polarization will continue in 2015

Ã-MER TAÅ?PINAR
January 04, 2015, Sunday

With these early days of 2015 it is time to take stock and speculate.
Unfortunately it is hard to be optimistic about what the new year
holds for Turkey.

There is an unmistakable sense of malaise in Turkish society.
Polarization has become the norm. Even the most fervent supporters of
the government seem to be gripped by an unprecedented “ErdoÄ?an
fatigue.” This fatigue and malaise is in great part due to Recep
Tayyip ErdoÄ?an’s ubiquitous presence in all media outlets. His
monopolization of Turkish politics renders all talks about a
presidential regime meaningless since he has already established such
a regime without officially declaring it.

ErdoÄ?an has been an agent of change in Turkey but he has dismally
failed at being an agent of democratization. In fact, he has
squandered a golden opportunity to reconcile political Islam with
democracy and secularism. Instead he opted in his third term to become
the great polarizer of Turkish society. After a successful two terms
in power from 2002 to 2011, the current decade from 2010 to 2020 is
likely to resemble the lost decade of the 1990s. Such an outcome will
be hard to avoid if the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) wins
the 2015 elections with more than 40 percent of the vote. There is no
reason to be optimistic about another term of the AK Party in power,
but we are clearly heading in that direction.

Since the magnitude of the AK Party victory in 2015 will determine the
fate of the next four to five years, it makes sense to focus on what
factors will be most likely to impact the election results this
summer. Answering this question requires a solid understanding of what
makes the AK Party successful. The obvious two factors that comes to
mind are the following: economic stability and the absence of a strong
opposition. On the economic front, there are already clear indicators
that growth has slowed down to around 3 percent and that foreign
direct investment has a downward trend. On the other hand, the sharp
fall in oil prices is keeping the current account deficit (CAD) and
inflation under control. As a result, it would be unrealistic to
expect a major downturn in the economy that will cause a major shift
in the thinking of voters. In other words, those who vote for the AK
Party for reasons linked to economic stability will continue to do so.

What about political dynamics? There is no reason to expect a miracle
from the main opposition party. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) is
going through a difficult time in İstanbul and even its most loyal
supporters have lost faith. As a result, the more important issue is
the 10 percent threshold for parliamentary representation and whether
the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) will manage to gain seats as a
party. The HDP seems determined to run as a party rather than with
independent candidates. This is obviously a high risk and high return
strategy. In case the party fails to obtain above 10 percent, the AK
Party will become the main beneficiary with a stronger parliamentary
majority. This could pave the road for constitutional reforms
establishing a presidential regime, thus reinforcing the autocracy of
ErdoÄ?an as the strong man of Turkey.

On the other hand, the HDP could also upset the AK Party’s plans for a
super-majority by becoming the fourth party in Parliament. At this
point, the HDP is the strongest candidate to change the political
landscape of the country with charismatic young leader Selahattin
DemirtaÃ…?.

Other than the economic and political dynamics, one wonders whether
foreign policy issues ranging from Syria to the centennial of the
Armenian Genocide will impact the 2015 elections. Usually voters are
unmoved by external dynamics unless they impact the economy. Turkey’s
image in the world is already in a free fall because of ErdoÄ?an’s
authoritarianism and Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu’s dismal foreign policy legacy.
Yet, the economy is muddling through despite such negative dynamics.
In short, polarization is likely to continue in Turkey after the
elections.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/omer-taspinar/polarization-will-continue-in-2015_368808.html

Iran, Armenia trade volume reaches $320mn

Mehr News Agency, Iran
Jan 4 2015

Iran, Armenia trade volume reaches $320mn

TEHRAN, Jan. 04 (MNA) – Yerevan in Armenia will host the 12th
International Caucasus Building Exhibition and Reconstruction on March
22-24 2015.

International Specialized Exhibition ‘Caucasus Building and
Reconstruction’ will present construction technology, building
materials, equipment, tools, air conditioners, heating and cooling
systems, door and windows, chemicals, ceramics, stones, flooring,
cooling technology, wire and cable, as well as pool and sauna.

The exhibition will be held in Yerevan by the Union of Manufacturers
and Businessmen (Employers) of Armenia (UMB(E)A) and will host
industrial construction companies from Russia, Netherlands, Ukraine
and Georgia.

Executive director of the Armenian exhibition Gholamreza Rezaiian said
Armenia was located in the crossroads of Europe-Middle East and its
economic and commercial ties with Europe, the Middle East and the
independent states of the former Soviet Union provides it with a great
advantage to boost trade and international cooperation and increase
its trade volume with other countries.

Rezaiian added the volume of trade between Islamic Republic of Iran
and Armenia totaled to $320mn in 2013. “Armenia stands first on the
list of Iran’s destinations for export,” Rezaiian emphasized.

http://en.mehrnews.com/detail/News/105349

Tourists demand high-quality services – Robert Minasyan

Tourists demand high-quality services – Robert Minasyan

15:54 * 04.01.15

Tourists demand high-quality services now, Robert Minasyan, Rector of
the Armenian Institute of Tourism, told Tert.am as he spoke of winter
tourism.

“So much has been done in Armenia’s tourist industry over the past
seven years as has never been done before. However, I cannot say I am
satisfied with the situation in Armenia’s tourist industry. We have
much to do,” Mr Minasyan said, pointing out the need for further
infrastructure development.

Asked if Armenia is attractive to tourists during the winter season,
he said that the country is always attractive, but proper work is
necessary.

“The tourist industry workers that did not receive professional
education need retraining.”

Armenia’s weather is and people are excellent conditions for tourists,
Mr Minasyan said.

http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/04/zbosashrjutyun/1552215

Il neige dans certaines régions d’Arménie

ARMENIE-METEO
Il neige dans certaines régions d’Arménie

Hier, samedi 3 janvier à 10 heures du matin malgré la neige qui
tombait sur certaines régions, l’ensemble des routes d’Arménie était
ouverte à la circulation selon le Ministère des situations d’urgence.
Des difficultés étaient néanmoins signalées sur les portions des
routes reliant Sotsk à Karvadjar, dans la région d’Arakadzodn entre
Talin et la région d’Arakadz, dans la région de Kodaïk entre
Tcharentsavan et Abovian, dans la région de Lori entre Spitak et la
région de Chirag. A Armavir, des brouillards épais étaient signalés.
Enfin dans la région de Siyunik, une forte pluie était signalée sur la
route entre Meghri et Katcharan.

Krikor Amirzayan

dimanche 4 janvier 2015,
Krikor Amirzayan (c)armenews.com

Un Conseil constitutionnel bien turcophile ?

Un Conseil constitutionnel bien turcophile ?

Samedi 3 Janvier 2015 à 16:00 | Lu 1914 fois I 3 commentaire(s)
ANNE DASTAKIAN

Dans sa première livraison de l’année 2015, les Nouvelles d’Arménie
Magazine publie une enquête qui révèle un échange de mails troublants
entre le Français Hubert Haenel, ex-sénateur et membre du Conseil
constitutionnel, et le Turc Yasar Yakis, ancien ministre des affaires
étrangères, ardent francophile et lobbyiste turc en France.

La petite sauterie entre jeunes du FN et de l’UMP pour passer la nouvelle année

Nicolas Sarkozy n’a jamais défendu la laïcité

Nationalisations en Italie : Renzi fait la politique dont Hollande est incapable

Dans son premier numéro de 2015, l’année du centenaire du génocide des
Arméniens de 1915, toujours officiellement non reconnu par la Turquie,
les Nouvelles d’Arménie magazine, (NAM), le plus grand journal
français dédié à l’Arménie, publie une enquête pour le moins
troublante. Un échange de mails (voir ci-dessous) datant de février
2012, entre le Français Hubert Haenel, ex-sénateur et membre du
Conseil constitutionnel, et le Turc Yasar Yakis, ancien ministre des
affaires étrangères, ardent francophile et lobbyiste turc en France,
tend à prouver de bien dangereuses liaisons entre nos >, en
principe indépendants et garants de la Constitution française, et un
éminent agent d’influence étranger. L’échange a eu lieu au moment de
l’invalidation, le 28 février 2012, par le Conseil constitutionnel, de
la loi Boyer qui cherchait à pénaliser >, en clair, le génocide arménien.

Issu d’un groupe de discussion Yahoo toujours accessible sur internet
fin 2014, l’échange est éloquent. Le 1er février, Yasar Yakis écrit à
Haenel qu’il est >. recours dont il pense
qu’il a >. Rien
d’étonnant, certes, de la part du lobbyiste d’un Etat dont la
politique étrangère s’évertue à nier l’élimination de plus d’un
million d’Arméniens de l’empire ottoman, voici un siècle. On peut par
contre s’étonner de la réponse du > français à son >.

Le 28 février, jour du verdict, c’est avant même la publication du
résultat de la délibération du Conseil, qu’Haenel lui annonce la bonne
nouvelle.

Azerbaijan Starts the War

Azerbaijan Starts the War

Haikazn Ghahriyan, Editor-in-Chief
Comments – 04 January 2015, 01:48

In the morning of January 3 when Armenia was officially a member of
the Eurasian Union, Azerbaijan launched two actions in the Armenian
direction, killing two and wounding one.

In December Azerbaijan again boosted tension at the border. In
addition, the northeast of Armenia was under intensive firing on New
Year’s eve. On those days the agreement on membership of Armenia to
the Eurasian Economic Union was being signed and ratified, and on
December 23 the EEU summit was being held in Moscow.

The summit in Moscow was marked by the following: Putin announced that
CSTO national armies would be connected to the Russian defense system,
which means that the armies will be managed by Moscow. In other words,
CSTO countries appear in the area of Russia’s security mandate.

During this meeting Putin announced that CSTO member states should be
ready for military actions in Central Asia and the Caucasus. After
NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan the “burden” of responsibility for
this region falls heavily on Russia. The national armies of CSTO are
seen as a resource for the next war.

The point is that it is clear to everyone except the Armenians that
Russia is not capable of acting as a guarantor of security and
implementing such objectives for its “allies”. Since only the
Armenians fail to understand this, this feature of Russia’s will be
especially intensive in Armenia’s direction. Armenia joined the EEU
referring to security and will experience the whole bitterness of
“security”. There is even some mysticism in this in a historical
perspective.

Russia annexed Armenia in its projects through its agents in Armenia,
as well as Azerbaijan and Turkey which did not wish Armenia’s
membership to the Euro-Atlantic organizations either. Russia has armed
Azerbaijan for the latter to attack Armenia, and those attacks were
many in 2014.

This is Azerbaijan’s commitment in Russian-Azerbaijani agreements.
Those attacks were thwarted because the Armenian army was capable of
sovereign decisions and defeated Azerbaijan. And now Azerbaijan again
wants to check whether the resolutions of December 23 may change the
state of play in the conflict area.

Azerbaijan is preparing to carry out most of Moscow’s conditions as
its relationship with the West has got complicated and it has been
“blocked” there. For its part, Moscow intends to strip Armenia of its
sovereignty altogether with the help of Azerbaijan and Turkey and make
it part of it. It is not accidental that recently Putin has been
“forgetting” about Armenia in its speeches.

Two obstacles are left on the way to depriving Armenia of its
sovereignty: Karabakh and the Armenian army. There is no doubt that
attacks on Karabakh will continue and intensify. Karabakh is
historically stuck in the “throat” of the Russian empire, and somehow
the destiny of this empire depends on Karabakh. It seems absurd but it
is not more absurd than the policy of the Russian empire. Besides,
Karabakh is the case when the Armenians won not just without the
Russians but in spite of the Russians.

They have already set out against the army through the resolution of
December 23. Azerbaijan will assume “responsibility” for Karabakh,
especially that Armenia within the EEU is limited in its actions,
including regarding Karabakh.

Azerbaijan must be punished within its own territory. This is the only
thing that influences Azerbaijan’s policy. Border incidents and
victims do not produce such an effect, only actions performed in its
territory do. In addition, capturing its territories must be among
such actions.

Karabakh is not an EEU member and does not have any international and
“Eurasian” commitments. Karabakh’s actions will be in line with the
international politics because Azerbaijan has appeared outside this
logic within the orbit of the Russian policy.

http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33375#sthash.vglXxaY2.dpuf

Nagorno-Karabakh Accuses Azerbaijan Of Killing Two Soldiers

Big News Network
Jan 3 2015

Nagorno-Karabakh Accuses Azerbaijan Of Killing Two Soldiers

Saturday 3rd January, 2015

Defense officials in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh have
accused Azerbaijan of attacks that left two ethnic Armenian soldiers
dead.

A statement from the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Ministry said
Azerbaijani infiltrators crossed the buffer zone that separates the
region from the rest of Azerbaijan early on January 3 and opened fire.

Armenia warned Azerbaijan of consequences in case of more attacks.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry denies entering the territory.

Nagorno-Karabakh is located within Azerbaijan’s borders but is
inhabited almost entirely by ethnic Armenians.

A 1994 truce ended six years of bitter fighting between the two sides,
but both sides frequently claim attacks despite the cease-fire.

Based on reporting by dpa and AP

http://www.bignewsnetwork.com/index.php/sid/229058573