Author: Emil Lazarian

A few days ago, at the “Zvartnots” airport, the second president of the Republic of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, was not allowed to leave the territory of the Republic of Armenia, which he had no right to do, because, as factor.am– wrote, at that time he was not accused in any criminal proceedings, within the framework of which he was not allowed to leave the RA territory, which was confirmed by the court and investigative bodies.

But everything did not end there, not long after, the video of Robert Kocharyan being banned from leaving appeared on Nikol Pashinyan’s family. in the media.

The location and content of the camera allowed the media and various figures to claim that the video was from the surveillance cameras of the border checkpoint in “Zvartnots”.

Note that in 2024 on July 31, the representatives of the border guard service of the FSB of Russia handed over the state border of the “Zvartnots” air checkpoint to the protection of the Armenian side.

In what way did the footage recorded by the surveillance camera of the border checkpoint installed in “Zvartnots” get into the hands of the government media? We can make assumptions about the legality of that move. And both NSS director Andranik Simonyan and NSS border guard troops commander Garik Muradyan have their responsibility here.

Accordingly, how? 168.amGegham Manukyan, deputy of the Armenia faction of the National Assembly, said in a conversation with the National Security Service and the command of the border guard troops of the National Security Service about this issue.

“Haykakan Zhamanak” of Nikol Pashinyan’s family publishes a video almost immediately, and it is clear to the naked eye that it is from the camera installed at the checkpoint of the Zvartnots airport, that is, it belongs to the border guard troops of the RA National Security Service. And such a video and information can be released from the top-secret structure only by the decision of the top management and the execution of the Director of the National Security Service and the Commander of the Border Guard Forces. he emphasized, reminding that this is not the first such case.

About the rights of NSS border guard troops RA: in law specifically, it is said:

■ make appropriate notes in the documents giving the right to cross the state border, and if necessary, to temporarily take them, as well as to take fake documents, to prevent them from crossing the state border into the territory of the Republic of Armenia or from the territory of the Republic of Armenia persons who do not have the relevant documents giving the right to exit until the proper preparation of the documents giving them the right to cross the state border or the clarification of the circumstances of their loss of the documents,

■ in order to establish control over the maintenance of the state border regime, border regime and regime of state border crossing points, perform registration of persons, accounting of actual data, statistics and for these purposes, in accordance with the procedure established by the legislation of the Republic of Armenia, use information systems,

■ carry out an investigation in cases related to their proceedings according to the law,

■ to carry out the prevention of the crimes against which the fight is within the jurisdiction of the border guard troops etc.

As for the responsibilities:

■ To ensure the fulfillment of the obligations related to the state border regime, which are provided by the legislation of the Republic of Armenia and the international treaties of the Republic of Armenia,

■ prevent the regime of the state border of the Republic of Armenia, the border regime and actions of persons violating the regime of state border crossing points etc.

We repeat: the Border Guard troops are under the National Security Service, and the Security Service is directly subordinated to Nikol Pashinyan.

In particular, attached to Nikol Pashinyan’s decision of June 28, 2018 on approving the RA NSS statute and structure հավելվածի՝ In the section related to NSS administration and management, it is stated that “The National Security Service is managed by the Prime Minister.” And the director of the National Security Service “manages the organizations and institutions assigned to the national security service”.

And, according to the law and established կարգի՝ The tasks and functions of the NSS, in particular, are:

■ Participation in the development and implementation of measures for the protection of information constituting state and service secrets, control of the preservation of state and service secrets in state bodies, military formations, organizations, implementation of measures related to allowing citizens to access information constituting state and service secrets in the prescribed manner,

■ implementation of state control in the field of information security in accordance with the law, as well as Coordinating activities in the field of cryptographic and technical protection of information protected by the legislation of the Republic of Armenia, defining a unified procedure for countering technical intelligence in the Republic of Armenia,

■ communication, information and data transmission systems, information protection means for coordinating activities and summarizing results in the national security service (including cryptographic protection measures) creation, national in accordance with the legislation of the Republic of Armenia defining the order of recording, storage and use of operational, archival and other materials related to the activity of the security service, etc.

Is there a clause that allows the release of video belonging to the National Security Agency to a private media outlet, which we have witnessed more than once?

Let’s wait what the National Security Service and the command of the Border Guard troops will answer to the written requests of Gegham Manukyan, deputy of the “Armenia” faction, but they can already assume that the National Security Service and the command of the Border Guard troops, perhaps, crossed the limit of their powers.

And there is still a question: will Nikol Pashinyan, who is directly under the authority of the National Security Service and whose instructions he carried out, see his own responsibility in the incident?

Why do we say this? Back in April “Pashinyan “relinquished” his responsibility regarding the service of the NSS border guard forces” We are an article with a reprint to publish the basis for which was the following wording of Nikol Pashinyan regarding the service of border guards during the briefing organized after the Government session on April 30.

“I am the prime minister of the Republic of Armenia, but I may not know if there is a question about how the border guard of the Republic of Armenia performs his service, with what logic, because it is not a matter of my agenda.”

Of course, this was said more about the service of the border guards at the state border, but we can safely project it on the case described in the article, because it is not excluded that Nikol Pashinyan will not accept the extent of his responsibility in the distribution of the video and put it entirely on the command of the NSS and Border Guard troops.

By the way, from November 10, 2025, he was appointed as the commander of the border guard troops of the RA NSS Garik Muradyan is a military man, and served in Artsakh Armed Forces, then in the 3rd Army Corps of the RA Armed Forces, holding various positions, and during the first stage of the demarcation and demarcation process in Tavush, he was in military service in this sector. And now Nikol Pashinyan has entrusted him with the protection of the state border, if at first sight we accepted this positively at least in the sense that he is a military man and knows the “combat” protection of the borders, then now we have to make negative records.

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Turkish-Western big two skilled experts with experience appear on the website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace coming Program entitled “Next steps towards peace after the elections held in Armenia”. by article։ Ismail Alper Joshkun, the former ambassador of Turkey and UN representative in Baku, and Karo Paylan, the former deputy of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, suggest without delay to “give new momentum to the process”, and Ankara, which is hosting the next NATO summit in early July, “can become a platform for the next important window of diplomatic opportunities”.

According to the authors, “Nikol Pashinyan has won a vote that could determine the future of the South Caucasus,” and “his victory preserves the prospect of peace with Azerbaijan, normalization of relations with Turkey, and gradual integration of Armenia into broader regional and Western economic networks.”

Meanwhile, as a result of the vote, the Civil Pact party did not receive enough votes to advance the constitutional changes demanded by Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan requires before the final conclusion of the peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan signed in Washington in August 2025. However, this “should not cause a delay in the process for any party,” Joshkun and Paylan write. – On the contrary, the more limited mandate makes it more important to create visible dividends of the world with the support of Azerbaijan, Turkey, the USA and Europe. If the peace process stops, the forces interested in overthrowing it will strengthen, and the Armenian society will more often perceive the settlement as a unilateral concession. And if peace brings concrete benefits—open borders, trade, investment, energy connections, and new economic opportunities—it will help build domestic support for any long-term settlement.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may use the July 5-7 NATO summit in Ankara as an opportune moment to organize a quadrilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the purpose of which “should be to prevent the stagnation of the peace process and develop joint commitments to create a political and economic base for its further advancement.” Let’s note that such meetings have not yet taken place, and it is not at all a fact that it will be possible to properly prepare it during the remaining upcoming weeks.
“The first step can be the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, with the support and understanding of Azerbaijan, for direct trade and movement of citizens of third countries. It is necessary to start trade and free movement of people. The residents of the region, first of all, the Armenians, should see that normalization brings real benefits. Azerbaijan can show that military victory can become the basis of leadership in the peace process. Turkey, for its part, will be able to demonstrate that its support for regional connectivity also includes Armenia, and that the special relationship with Azerbaijan is used for the common good,” the columnists continue, thereby suggesting a soft revision of Baku’s aforementioned demand, which rigidly binds Armenia’s constitutional referendum as a precondition for signing a peace agreement. Apparently, it is assumed that Trump should have a corresponding influence on Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan, which is far from obvious.

“The South Caucasus is closer than ever to the interconnectedness that replaces war, fragmentation and historical mistrust. with interdependence and with joint economic benefit. This opportunity cannot be missed. The region does not need another frozen diplomatic process. He needs an economy of peace,” Joshkun and Paylan write, further discussing the key role of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIP). In a narrow geographical sense, we are talking about the transport corridor passing through the Syunik region of Armenia, which will connect the main territory of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey.

Strategically, this route could become part of a wider network of transport, energy, digital and trade connections between the Caspian region, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey and Europe. “If properly implemented, TRIPP should not turn into a corridor that benefits one side at the expense of the other. It could become the beginning of a new Pan-Caucasian economic agreement based on the principles of sovereignty, reciprocity and common interest… The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border for the trade and movement of citizens of third countries will not be a concession to Armenia.  It will be an investment in regional stability, the development of the Middle Corridor and the strengthening of Turkey’s strategic influence. In addition, it will allow Azerbaijan to support the move to strengthen the peace process without giving up its key negotiating positions. – write the employees of the European Program of the Carnegie Foundation, calling to think about a bright future. – The South Caucasus is located in the center of the geopolitical area stretching from the Black Sea to Central Asia and the Middle East. At a time when wars, sanctions and crises have shown the vulnerability of global supply chains, the region’s geographic location can be an advantage rather than a source of problems.

A peaceful and interconnected South Caucasus can strengthen the Middle Corridor, increase trade stability between East and West, create new trade, energy and digital communication channels, and provide the US and Europe with a more stable outlet to Central Asia.

For Azerbaijan, this is an opportunity to turn a military victory into a political success and strengthen Ilham Aliyev’s legacy. Baku can participate in the formation of a new regional order, where the country’s security, sovereignty and economic interests will be strengthened through peace, not constant confrontation.”

For Pashinyan’s “Fourth Republic”, “open borders, investments, trade, infrastructural development and raising the standard of living of the population are necessary. For Turkey, the regulation of relations with Armenia also derives from its long-term interests. It will allow to strengthen Turkey’s role as a regional connecting center, support the development of the medium-term corridor to Central Asia, expand Ankara’s influence in the South Caucasus and form a positive agenda in relations with Washington and Brussels.”։

Acknowledging that “interconnection should not be limited to roads”, the authors express a bold idea that “energy and the digital economy can play an analogue of the European coal and steel agreement in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has serious energy resources and is striving to become a regional center of artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Turkey has a strong industrial base and access to European markets.

Collectively, these advantages can enable the implementation of a new generation of regional projects: data centers, digital corridors across the Caspian Sea, energy and logistics networks, as well as production chains connecting Central Asia and Europe through a more sustainable South Caucasus.” Recent investment programs in the field of artificial intelligence and data processing centers in Armenia, including initiatives with the participation of the company NVIDIA, testify to the ability of the states of the region to attract the world’s largest technology companies.

According to the authors, “peace will become truly sustainable only when it is supported not only by politicians and diplomats, but also by entrepreneurs, investors, workers, local communities and ordinary citizens interested in maintaining open borders and mutually beneficial cooperation.” The South Caucasus should not turn into a theater of competition between world powers, needing an open and inclusive system of interaction based on trade, interdependence and development.

In the end, the authors state that Armenians, Azerbaijanis and Turks deserve a future without conflicts, mutual hostility and constant competition. Despite the complex historical legacy, they see the opportunity for the Caucasian states to move to a new model of relations based on coexistence, exchange, trade and peaceful cooperation.

The pathos of Joshkun and Paylan is understandable, but it is not so clear how realistic their proposals are.։ Even if the leaders of the four countries meet in Ankara, it is not at all a fact that their meeting will lead to practical results. it is enough to remember the infamous “Peace Council” named after Donald Trump, which is now largely forgotten. According to Carnegie Endowment experts, some “permanent coordination mechanism” with the participation of the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and interested international financial institutions could help track progress, identify bottlenecks, attract investment and prevent deviations from the peace agenda, being “practical, targeted and aimed at the implementation of projects that can bring tangible benefits: modernization of customs services, development of border infrastructure, transport links, energy cooperation, digital investments and support for SMEs that can take advantage of new trade channels”.

This idea, to put it mildly, does not quite correspond to the “three plus three” format put forward by Russian diplomacy, excluding Russia and Iran from the formats of regional interaction. Armenia’s subordinate position in the geopolitical structure proposed by Joshkun and Paylan is no less obvious. On June 14, in Dilijan, Azerbaijani President’s Assistant Hikmet Hajiyev and Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan discussed the issues of the “peace agenda” between Baku and Yerevan, emphasized the continuation of bilateral dialogue within the framework of promoting stable peace and stability in the region. The interlocutors confirmed the intention to maintain working contacts and agreed to hold the next meeting in Azerbaijan.

Alexander Grigoriev

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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