The “second wave” of the Middle East crisis. From the Hormuz Confrontation to the South

The last ten days in the Middle East were marked by the degradation of the fragile April ceasefire and a new, more dangerous phase of military escalation.

Closed-door talks between Washington and Tehran, which have included tough American demands for a freeze on uranium enrichment and stockpile depletion, have been essentially deadlocked for several months, with the sides unable to reach an agreement. In recent days, the diplomatic crisis has once again moved to the military stage. On June 4, clashes between the US Navy and Iran began in the Strait of Hormuz, which culminated on June 8, when an Iranian attack drone shot down a US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter off the coast of Oman.

In this regard, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that Iran should combine military operations and diplomacy in order to turn it into political and economic achievements.

In response to the downing of the helicopter, US President Donald Trump ordered “self-defense strikes”, but Israel took tougher measures, striking Iran’s most important petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on June 9.

According to Axios leaks, Donald Trump has warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “be careful” not to end the ceasefire. However, on June 10, Trump confirmed in an interview with Fox News that he may continue to strike energy facilities because Iranian negotiators are delaying the process. Although Qatari mediators continue to work, mutual missile strikes in the Persian Gulf maintain a high risk of a full-scale resumption of war.

This great geopolitical earthquake is directly projected on the South Caucasus, where the discussions regarding Azerbaijan’s possible support to Israel have become active again. The American CNN recently made a sensational publication, according to which, during the war against Iran, Israel deployed secret troops, special military and intelligence units in Azerbaijan in several positions adjacent to the northern border of Iran, the closest of which is only about 100 kilometers from the Iranian city of Tabriz. Israeli forces, including special forces, military helicopters and Mossad personnel, carried out reconnaissance, drone operations from the territory of Azerbaijan, and planted eavesdropping devices in the northern settlements of Iran. One of the main operations carried out from the territory of Azerbaijan was the killing of Rahman Moghaddam, the head of the intelligence special operations unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on March 4.

Baku responded to this leak with a strong denial, calling the news “completely baseless” and asserting that it will not allow its territory to be used against third countries. Nevertheless, the deep strategic and energy ties between Baku and Tel Aviv remain a primary threat to Tehran. Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of the Iranian Parliament, a member of the National Security Committee, stated that Baku does not know that it can be wiped off the face of the earth in 3-4 hours, and this is not an exaggeration. Zohrevand noted that most of the Israeli attacks on Iran were carried out from the territory of Azerbaijan.

“Now both Turkey and Israel have deployed their military forces in Nagorno Karabakh. The military airport in the north of Baku was given to them, and no one can be within a few kilometers of it. They constantly bring troops, equipment, and do works there. Of course, we know this, but the government is not responding. I mean, this is a war against Zionism. Aliyev also has the same profile that Ben Zayed has. if not worse, definitely not better than Ben Zayed. They are in agreement with the Zionists, and we must understand who we are dealing with. We knew that the Emirates is the second Israel, but until they attacked us, we did nothing against them. We knew Kuwait, we know Azerbaijan too,” said the Iranian deputy.

He clarified that Iran’s principle is based on moderation and rationality, but if they strike, Iran will respond in such a way that they will not come to their senses.

The consequences of this conflict for the South Caucasus can be catastrophic. If Tehran is finally convinced that Azerbaijan supports Israel, the infrastructures of Azerbaijan may also be targeted by Iranian attacks, which will affect Armenia as well. In addition, analysts note that the protracted war in Iran is drastically reducing the logistics potential of the region, jeopardizing international trade programs passing through Syunik and Western investments, including the US-Armenia TRIPP project.

Iranian analyst Khayal Muazzin 168.amin a conversation with , he said that any war has a way to expand and worsen, as well as a more optimistic way out.

According to him, Iran controls the situation, trying to maintain its negotiation positions in parallel.

According to the analyst’s assessment, no matter how difficult the situation is, Iran succeeds in it well, Iran shows strength and resistance to its opponents, thus encouraging them to soften their positions. Otherwise, according to his conviction, negotiations with Iran in the ultimatum language are not the best option.

Khayal Muazin also believes that such a war in the neighborhood of the region can have both indirect and direct consequences, taking into account the significant strengthening of the West and Israel in the region. “Besides, the previous strict divisions of the regions do not work today in some cases, we are also talking about the South Caucasus, which as a result of the geopolitical developments of the last years has significantly “approached” the Middle Eastern region, that is, the connectivity has significantly increased.

“Therefore, for the South Caucasus, there is an internal regional agenda in Yerevan-Baku relations, as well as an external component related to the relations between Russia, Iran, and the West. This is already a rather difficult environment, and I think it will continue. As for Azerbaijan, Iran has constantly warned Azerbaijan about the consequences, on the other hand, it is known to everyone that Iran pursues a cautious policy and is not in favor of escalation without a reason,” said Khayal Muazin.

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