Between two chairs. What to expect from the noisy Armenian-Russian relations?

After the noisy elections that took place in Armenia and inflamed internal political passions, the clarification of the country’s foreign political vector remains one of the most urgent problems. In this context, the future vision of relations with Russia and the prospects of revising the strategic alliance or terminating RA membership in EAEU continue to be the key and foremost topic of public and political science discussions.

At the press conference held immediately after the noisy parliamentary elections held in Armenia, where Pashinyan declared himself the winner after processing only 10% of the votes, Pashinyan also spoke about the so-called EAEU-EU elections.

He noted that Armenia will continue the course of rapprochement with the European Union, but will also continue its participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, will continue to develop relations with Russia and other member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union.

“We will continue the course of rapprochement with the European Union, but we will also continue participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, we will continue to develop relations with Russia and other member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Of course, we will contribute to the strengthening of ties within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union,” Pashinyan said.

His statement towards Russia had a softer tone, but it did not help Russia to congratulate Pashinyan immediately after the elections, as a number of Western partners did.

That tone of Pashinyan also did not prevent Russia from addressing the elections held in Armenia in rather sharp terms, noting that unprecedented repressions and pressures against the opposition were recorded.

According to his assessment, the elections in Armenia took place under conditions of unprecedented pressure on the opposition and interference from the West. Viktor Vodolatsky, the first vice-chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots, also said that vote falsification during the elections in Armenia led to the loss of at least 20% of voters’ votes by the opposition parties.

Still during the pre-election campaign, during the pre-election meeting with the residents of the town of Martuni, Gegharkunik region, referring to the topic of strained relations with Russia and the EU-EAEU election, Pashinyan said that after the elections, he would go to Russia to meet with Putin.

“The President of Russia called me on June 1 to congratulate me on my birthday, but we also had business talks, and we agreed that after the elections I will leave again, we will have a meeting and resolve all current issues,” Pashinyan said.

Although Dmitry Peskov, the press spokesman of the Russian President, announced hours ago that there is no clear agreement regarding the meeting, most likely such a meeting will be planned after the publication of the official results of the elections.  Peskov also said that relevant decisions will be made depending on the end of the electoral process.

“You know that an announcement about the results of the elections is expected on June 14. You know that many participants of the elections there are going to appeal, there will be a recount, etc., that is, it is quite complicated and long,” he added.

Before the possible meeting, although the electoral passions in Armenia have not weakened yet, the situation around Armenia in EAEU continues to be actively discussed. The Russian officials, who during the entire pre-election campaign in RA made rather sharp statements, do not reduce the level of tension. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on June 10 that the question of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU is very serious, and it is necessary to take an urgent decision.

“They announce in Yerevan that for now there is no question of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union, because we (Armenia’s leadership – A.M.) have not joined the European Union yet. You know, a law on EU membership has already been adopted in Armenia, that’s why the issue is already very serious… Here, of course, we will have to take an active approach,” Lavrov said.

The Russian Foreign Minister recalled the words of the Russian President Vladimir Putin and members of the Russian government that “we will have to deal with the issue of Armenia’s membership quite promptly”.

“Not because we do not respect the choice of the Armenian people. We want to know exactly that choice. Otherwise, it is impossible to implement Armenia’s law on joining the European Union and at the same time remain a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, because the norms by which these two associations operate are mutually exclusive,” Lavrov emphasized.

In parallel, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, touched on the topic, noting that Moscow will not tolerate the status of Yerevan’s guardian in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). He noted that the statements from Yerevan about EAEU and the EU are similar to weather theory. one like this, one like that.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Victor Nadein-Raevsky tried to predict what to expect from Armenian-Russian contacts in the near future, including at a high level.

According to him, it is unlikely that there will be a turning point in Armenian-Russian relations.

According to him, Russia has already raised the issue in such a way, moved the problem, including to the EAEU leaders, that it is unlikely that the process will stop at some point. However, on the other hand, in his opinion, the RA authorities will try to ease the situation or try to find edges of mutual understanding at the upcoming meeting, if it takes place.

“It is difficult to say how this will be achieved, because there is an EAEU whose agenda is incompatible with the EU, so at the moment the question is clearly posed by Russia and other partners. The situation would be different if Armenia refused the EU membership course, but this is not possible considering the depth of relations between Armenia and European officials. The whole problem of this situation is that the European future of Armenia is not visible, but this invisible, intangible goal creates problems for Armenia in the EAEU. Perhaps it would be correct if a referendum was held, as proposed by the EAEU, the decision-maker is Armenia, or the decision will be made by the government or the people through a referendum. However, I think that the EAEU has shown realistic results to people, since Armenia does not have a common border with the EAEU countries, it has been economically well integrated, it receives benefits from economic integration and trade and economic privileges in the EAEU territory. This is the reason why the RA authorities have frozen CSTO membership, but they want to continue working in EAEU,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, if a meeting is held in the near future after the official confirmation of the election results, it will be a key conversation and many issues will become clear.

“It is obvious that the EU will also become more active, they will try to make Armenia’s European future irreversible, there will also be visits to Armenia, so after the end of the electoral processes, there will be a dynamic phase that will perhaps give answers to certain questions,” he said.

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