168: Don’t be fooled by the numbers

The authorities are trying to create the impression that the export inconveniences created for Armenian products on the Russian market are bypassing the Armenian economy. As if under these conditions, the economy continues to grow at an accelerated pace.

“The application of Russian temporary restrictions to individual Armenian exporters did not have a critical impact on the country’s overall macroeconomic indicators, and Armenia’s economy continues to show high activity.

You can see for yourself that the indicator of economic activity was 11 percent only in May of this year, and on an annual basis, in the period from January to May, it exceeded 8 percent. The influence is always present, but the numbers speak for themselves,” says Nikol Pashinyan.

While the producers are crying that they are not able to realize the crops grown by their sweat, they are suffering losses, they are not able to come out from under the incurred expenses, with this Nikol Pashinyan is trying to convince that the Russian export restrictions did not have a tangible impact on the economy of Armenia.

Did they have it or not, it will be seen later. It is not in one or two months that these effects will be felt on the economy and economic indicators.

The consequences of all this will be expressed later. Especially since these restrictions started to operate mainly from June and naturally they could not have a tangible effect on the May indicators.

Nikol Pashinyan probably knows about this, but deliberately diverts the public’s attention. He wants to show that the authorities are successfully overcoming economic problems, difficulties related to export, even in the conditions of Russian restrictions, Armenia’s economy is growing at a high rate and there is no reason to worry.

He probably also wants to make it clear to the Russian side that the Armenian economy does not suffer from the restrictions. The Minister of Economy even claims that Armenia and the Armenian economy will come out of all this stronger.

“Something like this should have happened so that our economy would be diversified, otherwise nothing would have happened by persuading and asking,” the Minister of Economy gives hope to producers, exporters, or himself.

Probably only he knows what deversification the Minister of Economy is talking about. The producers are sitting in a daze and do not know what to do with the crops they have grown, and the Minister of Economy is trying to feed people with such emptiness. Exporting several truckloads of apricots, cherries or tomatoes to other markets is not diversification. If diversification of the economy and exports were so easy, many people would have gone for it a long time ago. They did not go because entering new markets is not so easy, as the head of the government and the members think. It takes years for that.

As for the fact that economic activity in Armenia continues to be high, it still does not mean that the economy, especially the real sector of the economy, is developing. They talk so much about the support of the greenhouse economy, the construction of new greenhouses, the establishment of intensive gardens, the implementation of agricultural programs, subsidies, but agriculture is still in decline.

Where do those funds go, what are they spent on, when the results are like this, it is not known.

In the first quarter of this year, according to official data, a 5.2 percent decline in production volumes was recorded in agriculture.

The indicators of the second quarter have not been published yet, but there is no doubt that agriculture was in decline in the second quarter as well.

In the industry, it seems that quite high growths are being recorded. In five months, the growth is even slightly higher than 12 percent. But that growth came after a more than 14 percent decline in the industry during the same period last year.

Such is the basis of the growth of the industry. The role of the mining industry is extremely large in this. Most of the growth of the industry is based on the growth of the mining industry itself, which reaches up to 35 percent.

The mining industry has grown due to the increase in the volume of exploitation of the subsoil. As Nikol Pashinyan would say, they destroyed the family and spent it and drew indicators. Moreover, not only in the industry, but also in the export sector. After that, they were not even able to provide growth in terms of exports.

As a result of the first 5 months of the year, the export continues to be declining. And although the volume of export of raw materials increased at a high rate, it did not save the export from decline.

In recent months, the volume of exports from Armenia has been continuously decreasing. In February, the export was 708 million dollars, in March it was 594 million, in April – 548 million, and in May it decreased to 522 million. The export is decreasing month by month, although the export of raw materials during that time has increased sharply, almost twice.

Imagine what would happen if exports did not increase so much at the expense of the crust.

Naturally, those responsible for such phenomena do not give evaluations. The important thing is to ensure the demonstrative side of the indicators for them. No matter what problems are behind them.

Especially construction and services greatly contributed to the economic activity of the first 5 months of the year. The growth of construction is over 24 percent, and that of services is over 9 percent. And trade, which has the largest weight in GDP, grew by only 1.2 percent.

If at one point, on a monthly basis, there were at least 0.1-0.2 percent increases in trade, that also disappeared in May. Trade volumes remained at the previous year’s level. Meanwhile, it seems that they should increase. they increased pensions and allowances, due to the elections they increased social assistance, implemented various pre-election programs. But as we can see, the trade turnover did not increase, they remained at the level of the previous year.

Construction and services have grown at high rates, but they have very little to do with economic developments. That is the reason why, at first glance, there are high growths in the economy of Armenia, but there are no real developments.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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