Month: December 2023

December 4, 2023 - Nicholas Chkhaidze

On his visit to Georgia in early October, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev suggested that Tbilisi host negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This idea could be very appealing to Georgia in terms of re-establishing itself as an essential regional actor, which would also give the country the opportunity to assume more responsibility. This is something that Tbilisi has lacked since 2012. Tbilisi’s long-standing policy of non-irritation vis-à-vis Russia has harmed its regional status and the prospect of adopting a greater role in regional matters for more than a decade.

This proposal is voiced in the wake of statements made by the heads of state of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Overall, they stated that it is necessary for them to address the regional issues themselves and fundamentally remove the shackles of “spheres of influence”, which still loom over the South Caucasus like a dark cloud.

However, there is a certain hesitation from Yerevan to accept a new, Tbilisi-based negotiation format. Armenia’s reluctance to have Georgia broker a peace deal comes from its fear of not having a security guarantor now that the country has decided to change course away from being Russia’s vassal state. This is also why they have been looking westward, seeking states that would ensure their security. Armenian fears could be overcome if western states redirect their efforts to support the Tbilisi normalisation discussions and talk more vocally about the process.

As Baku and Yerevan are not that much interested in Russian involvement in resolving their dispute, with Azerbaijan increasingly disappointed with European mediation efforts, Tbilisi was considered a neutral peace broker that could potentially contribute to fostering dialogue and promoting peace between the other two small states in the South Caucasus.

Besides the geographical factor, Georgia has demonstrated its steadfast loyalty to a policy of neutrality when it comes to the conflict between its two neighbours. Even during the Second Karabakh War, Tbilisi decided to remain neutral and not strain relations with either side. This further cemented its position as an impartial peace broker with the legitimacy to contribute to the normalisation process.

Georgia also has a certain experience in mediating its neighbours’ disputes. Back in 2021, the country facilitated the release of 15 Armenian soldiers from Azerbaijan to Armenia, and subsequently, mediated Yerevan’s handover of the maps of minefields to Azerbaijan.

The recent meeting between the Georgian, Azerbaijani and Armenian prime ministers in Tbilisi as part of the “Tbilisi Silk Road Forum” is a promising sign. This is especially true regarding future perspectives for resolving regional issues by actors from within, not outside, the South Caucasus.

The present phase of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks has been ongoing since early 2021 but achieved little. This was mostly due to disagreements over the destiny of Karabakh’s Armenian inhabitants. However, after Azerbaijan had taken back its internationally recognised territories that were occupied by Armenia for over three decades, a new reality was established in the region.

The status quo currently includes the downgraded influence of Russia not only in Karabakh but also in Armenia, as Yerevan started looking towards the West considering Russia an unreliable partner. Armenia, which has been Moscow’s loyal strategic partner and totally dependent on security guarantees given by Russia, is now looking to gain western support to exert pressure on Azerbaijan. What the foreign policy elites in the West do not understand is that Russia cannot be removed from the South Caucasus if they rely on Armenia, which is ready to change its allies just in order to continue its feud with Azerbaijan.

What can really oust Russia from the South Caucasus is the completion of the bilateral peace process, preferably mediated by Tbilisi. In light of a globally destabilised landscape and numerous attempts to change the world order, it would be wise for the three small states in the South Caucasus not to get dragged into great power competition and the potential collateral damage that could result from this geopolitical struggle.

Not only would Tbilisi establish itself as a potential leader in the South Caucasus by being a host country for these peace talks, it would also send a message to its strategic partners in the West about being a valuable partner in the region. Tbilisi could subsequently help contain the expansion of irredentist and revisionist powers in its neighbourhood and further east. Furthermore, there would be no need for a “3+3 Format”, which is nothing more than an attempt by the three participating big powers to engage in the Cold War-era style establishment of spheres of influence.

Georgia does not have vast resources or significant leverage to facilitate these talks. However, its impartiality and the positive relations it has cultivated with both sides of the conflict, along with the recent decision of the European Parliament to recommend granting Tbilisi EU candidate status, will play a huge role in re-establishing Georgia’s major position in the South Caucasus. It will also revitalise their confidence in holding these peace talks. 

However, for such a reality to materialise in the South Caucasus, in terms of having a distinct geopolitical position that will give these three small states their long-cherished regional and potentially international significance, one should carefully assess the domestic political turbulence in Georgia with all its likely ramifications. It is also important to understand the ever-changing foreign policy priorities of Armenia, which could potentially undermine the peace talks, considering Baku’s priorities and its distrust of certain countries in the European Union.

Nicholas Chkhaidze is a Research Fellow at the Topchubashov Center, a think-tank based in Baku. He is focused on Russia, Ukraine, the South Caucasus, and Russian Private Military Companies. He obtained his Bachelor’s degree in International Relations with honors from the International Black Sea University. Previously, he has worked as a research assistant at the Henry Jackson Society’s “Russia and Eurasia Studies Centre” and at the Public Diplomacy Division of the NATO Liaison Office in Georgia. He is an alumnus of “The Fund for American Studies” 2021 Program.

MASIS, Armenia, Dec 4 (Reuters) – For the third time in her life, Elada Sargsyan is a refugee.

Born in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, Sargsyan fled her hometown in 1988, aged 19, as the Soviet Union began to fall apart.

The city’s once-large Armenian minority were driven out in violence triggered by the outbreak of ethnic conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous, primarily Armenian Christian territory within the mostly Muslim Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, which was soon to become an independent country.

Sargsyan and her family fled to Soviet Armenia, then set up home in the village of Aknaghbyur in Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Agbulaq in Azerbaijani, despite the fact that the mountain region was in Azerbaijan and at war with the government in Baku.

In 2020, they lost another home, when Azerbaijan – by now closely allied with Armenians' bête noire, Turkey – reconquered much of Karabakh including their village in a second war.

In September 2023, after Azerbaijan retook the remainder of Karabakh in a lightning offensive, prompting an almost total exodus, Sargsyan, by now 54, fled her home for a third time.

She, like the rest of the territory’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians, had suffered a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade of vital supplies from Armenia and refused to believe Baku's insistence that her rights would be preserved as a citizen of Azerbaijan.

"I’ve already got used to it," Sargsyan said in the town of Masis, on the outskirts of Armenia’s capital Yerevan, where she now lives temporarily in a disused kindergarten along with 67 other refugees from Karabakh.

"It’s very hard for the people who have fled their homes for the first time. They cry. But even so, they’ll get through it, like we got through it."

Masis, an otherwise sleepy town of 20,000 where Mount Ararat, sacred to Armenians, is clearly visible beyond the closed border with Turkey, has since September hosted around 8,000 refugees from Karabakh.

Until the 1980s, Masis was home to a significant Azerbaijani community, which was forced out in expulsions mirroring those that cost Sargsyan her Baku home. Now, municipal buildings that have been emptied host Armenia’s latest generation of refugees.

Many of those now being put up in Masis have nothing, having hurriedly abandoned homes and farms in Karabakh’s outlying villages when Azerbaijan began its final assault on Sept. 19.

Alina Harutyunyan, 34, fled her village of Harutyunagomer – Qizilqaya in Azerbaijani – with dozens of others in the back of an industrial truck belonging to one of her neighbours. Now she, her husband and four children share one room on the ground floor of a derelict library.

Armenia’s government has provided them with two beds and a one-off 100,000 dram ($250) payment, but their lodgings have no utilities and are furnished only with child-size tables and chairs, while the cold sweeps into the building through empty doorframes.

"We used to have a television. Now, when the kids want to watch something, we all gather around one phone," Harutyunyan said.

Though her husband, until September a soldier in Karabakh’s army, is able to earn some money as a labourer in nearby Yerevan, the family remain dependent on the kindness of locals:

"If I could, I'd go back and get all our things. Because here I have to beg for everything."

The memory of mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during World War One, which all but eliminated Turkey's Armenian population, is deeply rooted in many Armenians’ folk memory. Many refugees fear they may yet have to move again.

"Turkey is very close to us here in Masis," said Sargsyan. "Where can we run to next? Where can we go? What can we do? Will this ever end?"

About 150 km (90 miles) to the north, 10 members of the Gasparyan family, who came from Karabakh's capital, live in a three-bedroom apartment they have rented on the outskirts of Vanadzor, Armenia’s third city.

Like many refugees, they have struggled to find work in Armenia.

Alvina, a grandmother aged 65, has become the family’s main breadwinner, earning a little money selling homemade "jingalov hats" or "green bread", a flatbread stuffed with herbs that is a staple for Karabakh Armenians.

"Since we don’t have any other income right now, it’s just about enough for bread," said her daughter-in-law, Narine.

Charity worker Lilia Abrahamyan has taken it upon herself to help some of the 2,600 refugees in Vanadzor.

Each December, she gathers letters from 300 children of poor families asking for Christmas presents, and raises money to buy them gifts. This year, she has received an extra 200 letters from Karabakh refugee children living in Vanadzor.

Instead of toys and sweets, some have asked Abrahamyan for more practical things to replace those their parents had to abandon in September.

"One of them wants winter boots, one of them a coat. Another wants a microwave for their mum," she said.

"One of them wrote 'I don’t want anything, I want to go home to Karabakh'. We know we can’t help with that, but we do try to cheer them up."

($1 = 401.5 dram)

Many Armenians from the Nagorno-Karabakh region have been moved from their houses for the second time in their lifetimes. This is the second time that they have been forced to leave their homes.

Following their escape from the war-torn region in the 1990s, they reestablished their lives in Armenia, only to be displaced once more by the conflict that occurred in 2020. They are currently dealing with a sense of belonging that is becoming increasingly weak, as well as poverty and trauma, and they are facing an uncertain future.

Karabakh, which had been under Armenian control for a considerable amount of time, was retaken by Azerbaijan as a result of the current war. Because they were afraid for their lives, thousands of people fled the area as the conflict became more intense. A great number of people crossed the border into Armenia, coming with minimal possessions other than the clothes they were wearing.

Mariam, a 50-year-old woman who arrived in Armenia with her two children mentioned that they left behind everything that they had which included their house, their animals and their memories just so they would be able to survive.

The Armenian government scrambled to provide shelter, but many refugees ended up in overcrowded camps or temporary housing. They face a harsh reality of poverty and unemployment. Many lack proper documentation, making it difficult to access social services and find work.

They felt disoriented and did not know where they would be able to start because they have nothing there, according to David, a young man who lost his leg in the war. David stated that they knew they had nothing there.

Deep psychological trauma is caused by being uprooted from one’s home. A great number of refugees have the wounds of war, having been witnesses to acts of brutality and tragedy. Having trouble falling asleep due to the presence of nightmares. Especially vulnerable are children, who frequently withdraw from others and experience anxiety.

The prospects for these refugees are not clear at this time. There are many who continue to hold on to the hope that they will one day be able to return to Karabakh; nevertheless, the new peace accord has left the status of the territory unclear. Others are making a gradual but steady effort to reconstruct their life in Armenia, but the obstacles they face are enormous..

Mariam stated that they require assistance. In order to find work, to educate their children, and to recover from the trauma that they have experienced. The international community has pledged aid, but it has been slow to trickle down. Local NGOs are doing their best, but their resources are stretched thin. The plight of Karabakh refugees is a stark reminder of the human cost of conflict.

They are caught in a political limbo, their lives uprooted, their futures uncertain. As the world focuses on the geopolitical implications of the war, it must not forget the human stories – the families, the children, the individuals who have lost everything, twice.

Only through sustained support and a commitment to finding a lasting peace can these refugees hope to rebuild their lives and find a place to call home, once again.

December 4th, 2023 / Junior World Championships

Adding to Vagharshak Keyan’s victory yesterday, Tigran Ovsepian, Argishti Hakobyan and Albert Harutyunyan claimed titles in their respective weight categories in Yerevan.

European junior champion Ovsepian faced Angel Dimitrov of Bulgaria in the men’s 50kg final and he utilised his southpaw stance to gain points with judges, but Dimitrov came back late in the first round with a strong right hand to narrowly take the first round. Much like the colour of his vest and shorts, the Armenian saw red, coming out the corner aggressively towards Dimitrov and closing down the space to the Bulgarian, whose body shots were nothing compared to the several southpaw strikes to the head. The Armenian piled pressure on Dimitrov and had him against the ropes, but the Bulgarian had the home favourite bending at the knees with a clear punch to give him a fighting chance. The judges favoured the pressure of Ovsepian, making him the second home gold medallist at the Championships.

In comparison, Hakobyan was relaxed in his men’s 66kg bout with Ivan Siniak of Belarus. Both boxers adopted a loose style, using counter-attacking tactics to get their shots in. The Armenian led after the first round and took the second round unanimously with some perfectly-executed strikes. Siniak had to revert from counterpunching to being the aggressor, going against his natural instincts to try and force a knock down, but Hakobyan held strong for the unanimous victory.

Harutyunyan received a rapturous response from the crowd from the bell, driving into his opponent with quick hands, catching India’s Sahil on several occasions. The Indian looked much more competent afterwards, setting up a nervous final round. When Harutyunyan caused Sahil to receive a standing count, it was game over in the men’s 75kg, despite his opponent rallying in the final minute. A unanimous decision may seem harsh on Sahil who played his part in one of the best final bouts of the tournament.

With a day of defeats yesterday, India would claim its first gold medal of the Championships thanks to Payal in the women’s 48kg. Facing Armenia’s only female finalist, Heghne Petrosyan, it was initially a close affair, before missing swings from Petrosyan allowed Payal to capitalise. From there, she controlled the match.

Even more convincing was her teammate Nisha in the women’s 52kg, who led the charge from the bell, keeping her opponent, Tajikistan’s Farinoz Abdulloeva, on the defence. Once she found her rhythm, the footwork of Abdulloeva looked more comfortable, allowing her to pick her punches, but just as she looked to have an opportunity to come back into the bout, a few clean punches from Nisha in the second round caused the Tajikistan boxer to become passive, making the decision to award the Indian the victory an easy one for the judges.

While there was plenty of heartache in the finals for India – with nine of their 12 boxers losing – it was a strong day for women’s boxing as Akansha Phalaswal defeated Elizabeta Taimazova of Russia in the 70kg category. A scrappy first round was followed by nonstop action that only paused to replace Taimazova’s damaged head guard. The final strike of the second round saw Phalaswal catch the Russian with a left jab, giving her the points advantage which she held on to.

After John Maher’s victory yesterday, Siofra Lawless made it two wins from two for Ireland, putting in the most impressive performance of the day in the women’s 63kg over Shrushti Sachin Suthe from India. Lawless was quick on her feet, maintaining a gap for the majority of the bout and frustrating Sathe who went looking to close and corner the Irish boxer. It was a great response from the Indian, who caught Lawless off her guard; but when the composure was regained, it was Ireland out on top. Several unprotected punches to the face saw Sathe face a standing count, and unsurprisingly, Lawless claimed the gold medal.

Uzbekistan also claimed three titles today, with the gold rush starting with Sevara Mamatova in the women’s 57kg. A calculating first round would go the way of Mamatova, but the bout woke up as the bell rang for the next. While India’s Vini became more active, the Uzbekistan boxer was able to combine enough strikes to hold her at a distance and win unanimously.

It was followed by a win for Firuzjon Sadullaev in the men’s 60kg over home favourite Andranik Martirosyan. A late one-two from Sadullaev gave him the edge in the first round that was dominated by the pair clutching each other when attempting to strike. The second was cleaner, with both boxers getting a scene-stealing strike. Both had a chance to win going into the third, leading to a frenetic, physical pace. It would be Sadullaev who would have his arm raised, showing off his physical prowess in his celebrations too, performing a cartwheel-somersault combination in the ring.

Much like yesterday, Uzbekistan won the final bout of the night – this time it went to Islam Salikhov in the men’s 80+kg. Salikhov was given the nod in the first round and then all but sealed victory by the end of the second, allowing him to control the rest of the bout on his way to the gold, beating a solid opponent in Hemant Sangwan from India.

Russia would finish top of the medal table, securing two more gold medals. The first of these came for Islam Magomedov in the men’s 46kg final against Arno Darchinyan of Armenia. Both had success in the opener, with Darchinyan pushing forward on the front foot, but halted on a few occasions by a clean right uppercut. He kept pushing with his might with an overhand right hook, but Magomedov was magic on his feet, constantly on his toes and able to dodge the offence of the Armenian. A knockout was needed in the final round and to his credit, Darchinyan stirred Magomedov throughout even leading to a referee’s count, but the early damage was already done, giving the Russian the victory.

Anna Buzuleva claimed the women’s 80kg title, with victory over India’s Megha Sheokand, albeit quicker than expected. The Russian focused her attack on the torso, using bent arm punches to bring Sheokand in close and land more points. Both boxers were closely matched in the second round, with a final two minutes seeing the winner take all. Unfortunately, an injury for Sheokand would not see the climax this bout deserved, with Buzuleva taking the gold medal.

Finally, Nurassyl Tulebek made it four wins from four for Kazakhstan, beating India’s Jatin in the men’s 54kg. The speed of Jatin helped him to launch several attacks on Tulebek in the opening round, but judges deemed Tulebek’s shots to be cleaner. With a point to prove, the Indian came charging out of his corner, but looked less tidy as Tulebek had a controlled offence. An understated final round ensured Tulebek would have his arm raised at the end of the bout.

Behind Russia in the medal table were hosts Armenia with four golds, beating Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan by virtue of more silver medals.

WASHINGTON

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held separate phone calls on Monday with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to discuss efforts to reach a peace agreement between the two countries.

According to a readout of the phone call between Blinken and Aliyev, the Secretary welcomed Aliyev’s commitment to "conclude a durable and dignified peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia."

"The Secretary recognized the suffering that this long-standing conflict has caused Azerbaijanis and Armenians alike and underscored the benefits that peace would bring to everyone in the region," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.

"The Secretary discussed our enduring relations with Azerbaijan, noted recent points of concern in the relationship and also spoke about opportunities to strengthen cooperation, especially around the peace process, and the importance of high-level engagement," Miller added.

Blinken held a separate phone call with Pashinyan to discuss US support for efforts to reach a "durable and dignified" peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

"The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ongoing support for Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and outlined efforts to increase bilateral cooperation with Armenia as we work to support its vision for a prosperous and democratic future," said Miller in a statement.

Relations between the two former Soviet republics have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.


Most of the territory was liberated by Azerbaijan during a war in the fall of 2020, which ended after a Russian-brokered peace agreement and also opened the door to normalization.

Azerbaijan established full sovereignty in Karabakh after an "anti-terrorism operation" in September, after which separatist forces in the region surrendered.

In a statement on Nov. 21, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry called on Armenia to resume negotiations and "to avoid new unnecessary delays" in the peace process.

Delegations from Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to meet on Nov. 30 to discuss border delimitation issues.