Month: September 2015

The Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), meeting on the margins of the Assembly’s autumn plenary session in Strasbourg, approved the following statement yesterday:

“The Monitoring Committee welcomes the progress of constitutional reform in Armenia, which has been conducted in close co-operation with the Venice Commission. This has resulted in a text that, in the view of the Venice Commission, is of high quality and in line with international standards.

The committee similarly welcomes the fact that the constitutional changes will be adopted by referendum, and it calls on all political forces to participate in the referendum and the consultations that are part of it.

The committee notes that some issues in the proposed reform are politically contentious and hotly debated in Armenian society. The choice of political system is for Armenian citizens, and only for them, to decide in the forthcoming referendum. The committee therefore calls on all political stakeholders to ensure that the referendum is conducted according to the highest democratic standards.”

President Serzh Sargsyan, who has arrived in the U.S. on a working visit, had a meeting with Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on September 28 in New York.

Serzh Sargsyan and Matteo Renzi discussed a broad range of issues pertaining to the political dialogue between Armenia and Italy and their trade and economic collaboration, and touched upon the two countries’ cooperation within the frames of international organizations.

The interlocutors expressed their satisfaction with the fact that Armenian-Italian interstate ties have always developed in the spirit of mutual understanding. However, they stated that the two countries’ potential allows for further intensification of bilateral relations. The RA president and Italy’ prime minister attached importance to the promotion of stable political dialogue between the two countries, to which the interlocutors are sure frequent reciprocal visits could considerably contribute. In that context, President Serzh Sargsyan warmly recalled his official visit to Italy in April this year and the meaningful and interesting meeting with President Sergio Mattarella.

Armenia’s president stressed that through concerted efforts, the two countries can elevate Armenian-Italian interstate relations, as well as their cooperation within the frames of the EU to a qualitatively new level.
Serzh Sargsyan underscored that Italy is important to Armenia also as a leading EU country, and the promotion of comprehensive cooperation with it continues to hold a serious place in Armenia’s foreign policy agenda. The president expressed the hope that Italy will continue to support the implementation of the current RA-EU agenda.

Armenia’s president placed importance on defense cooperation which has occupied a special place in the Armenian-Italian bilateral agenda since 2012, underlining that the defense cooperation is not limited to bilateral format: since last November, 32 Armenian peacekeepers have joined the UN peacekeeping forces under Italian command in Lebanon, which, according to the president, can truly be considered as a successful example of cooperation between Armenia and Italy.

At the meeting, the RA president and the Italian prime minister attached importance also to the role of parliamentary diplomacy to develop bilateral relations.

Noting that trade and economic relations are among vital components on the Armenian-Italian agenda, the interlocutors expressed satisfaction with the fact that in the last four years, despite the global financial and economic crisis, the two counties have witnessed considerable trade growth. Furthermore, according to the previous year’s indicators, Italy is the 2nd trade partner of Armenia among the EU countries (the first is Germany). The parties were sure that this bears testimony to the fact that there is serious potential for better results, at which vigorous efforts need to be directed.

The RA president and Italy’s prime minister touched upon regional issues and challenges, including the current stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and the present problems. President Serzh Sargsyan stressed that as a friendly country, Armenia values Italy’s stable and balanced position on the NK conflict.

On September 28, Serzh Sargsyan also had a meeting with Prime Minster Stefan Löfvén of the Kingdom of Sweden in New York.

The president spoke highly of the Armenian-Swedish cooperation, which, according to him, has experienced tangible development in recent years, marked by the active dialogue of foreign ministers, the increase in the number of embassies and by various reciprocal visits.

The RA president and Sweden’s prime minister highlighted the special place of Armenian-EU relations and collaboration in the Armenian-Swedish cooperation agenda. Armenia’s president stressed the role of Sweden, a co-author of the Eastern Partnership, in the reinforcement of Armenia-EU relations.

The interlocutors talked about the need to develop bilateral trade and economic ties, stating that unfortunately, the current economic indicators do not correspond with the huge economic potential of cooperation between Armenia and Sweden. The parties agreed that in order to reveal the full potential, there is a need to foster mutual contacts and exchange of information at a state level, develop a comprehensive legal framework, and hold business forums.

At the meeting, President Serzh Sargsyan attached importance to Sweden’s balanced position on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

The parties also reflected upon issues pertaining to cooperation within the frames of international organizations.

Serzh Sargsyan and Stefan Löfvén placed importance on the intensification of parliamentary cooperation between the two friendly countries.

On September 28, His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians; consecrated two Khachqars (Cross-stones) that are replications of originals from the Monastery of St. Davit of Derjan in Aparan Western, Armenia. They were installed on the grounds of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin several days prior to the consecration.

The two khachqars have been installed through the initiative and blessings of His Holiness and by the generous sponsorship of Mr. and Mrs. Hagop and Mrs. Donna Didzyan.

Before the consecration service, His Grace Bishop Mushegh Babayan, Director of Operations of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin addressed the crowd. His Grace stated in part, that it is a remarkable and extraordinary day. Reflecting on the cherished year of 2015 for the Armenian people, His Grace stressed that this year was discerned with the canonization of the ArmenianGenocide victims. The consecration of the Khachqars on the Grounds of the Mother See dedicated to the victims of the Armenian Genocide, was an opportunity to extend our prayers to Heaven for the intercession of the saints who tasted the sweet yoke of martyrdom.

His Grace also added that it was a great joy to see all the guests gathered at the consecration of the Khachqars as a divine and sacred reality. In His remarks His Grace stated that it was an important achievement of the Catholicos of All Armenians to consecrate the two glorious Khachqars, which are also immeasurable in their spiritual meaning, using the newly blessed “Victory” Holy Muron for the first time. “These two Khachqars have been installed to represent the thousands which no longer exist and the Armenians who have kneeled at them and extended their prayers to Almighty God” he noted in his remarks.

Mr. Hagop Didizyan, the benefactor of the Khachqars, made brief remarks. He recalled the long journey, which the two stones had taken. He also expressed his gratitude to the sculptors and architects who endeavored over 9 months and carved the sanctities. He also expressed confidence, that the newly erected Khachqars will reveal to the coming generations the glorious culture of the Armenian people, as well as the eternal memory of the Holy Martyrs of the Armenian Genocide, exemplifying the current rebirth of the Armenian people.

After the remarks a veil covering the soaring Khachqars was removed by Mr. and Mrs Didizian and the Catholicos of All Armenians consecrated the uniquely designed Khachqars.

Following the service a special reception was held during which His Holiness Karekin II once again extended His blessings to the Didizian family. Mr. and Mrs. Hagop and Donna Didizian were granted the Order of “St. Gregory the Illuminator” for their beneficial and church-devoted endeavors, by His Holiness Karekin II.

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) said in a report Sunday that its guerrilla fighters have killed hundreds of Turkish soldiers and police officers in a month of clashes with the Turkish army, reports.

In a special report released Sunday on the latest conflict, the PKK said that from Aug. 25 to Sept. 25 its guerrilla fighters had killed “586 soldiers, policemen, special teams and counter-guerrilla forces, and two Turkish soldiers taken captive.”

The group said that only 48 of its fighters had been killed in clashes with the army or by air strikes.

According to the report, the PKK conducted 385 attacks on the army and police in response to 533 Turkish military operations against the guerrilla group.

It added that five guerrilla fighters were taken captive by the Turkish security forces.

The Turkish government and media outlets however, have reported contradicting numbers of the war casualties.

Army sources said that only 129 soldiers and policemen were killed in two months of fighting while the PKK lost 337 of its guerrillas.

Since the resumption of the conflict 30 civilians are also reported to have been killed in the Kurdish areas of Turkey.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had a meeting with his Belgian counterpart Charles Michel.

The Resolution the Belgian Parliament adopted on the occasion of the Armenian genocide Centennial was high on the agenda, Ermenihaber.am reports, quoting Turkish TRThaber.com.

According to the source, the Belgian Prime Minister said the bill is of political importance and does not imply any legal consequences.

Davutoglu, in turn, expressed his discontent with sanctions against MPs that voted against the bill, meaning Mahinur Ozdemir, who is of Turkish descent.

Davutoglu added they are ready to discuss any issue, including the one of expelling the lawmaker from his party.

Kamp Armen, an Armenian orphanage built in Istanbul’s Tuzla neighborhood in 1962, faces the danger of demolition. Activists have been struggling since May to save the orphanage. Construction works have now been stopped under public pressure.

A few days after the Armenian Genocide Centennial, on May 6 in the morning of May 6th construction machines entered into the premises of Camp Armen and started destroying the building.

Activists are now holding vigil to protect the building. The resistance began when the current property owner tried to demolish the camp in order to realize his own project. All in all, 1,500 citizens joined the struggle, Kurds and Turks among them.

Garo Paylan, an Armenian MP of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), has joined the vigil. Speaking to Public Radio of Armenia he said the struggle for the orphanage will continue.

“Hrant and Rakel Dink have done much to keep Kamp Armen since 1980. The orphanage could have a different fate if Hrant was alive. When the camp was first attacked on May 6, many people gathered to support us – the leadership of the Tuzla district, representatives of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, and many others. We’ll struggle until we achieve results. We are now waiting for the result of parliamentary elections, and we hope the issue will be solved,” Paylan said.

When visiting Kamp Armen one can see young people of different nationalities sitting side by side, because there is one thing uniting them all – the struggle for justice. Those who keep vigil often host guests, who come to encourage and give them advice. The head of Tuzla district has been supporting the activists since the start of the resistance.

Camp Armen was one of the most symbolic and important property belonging to the Armenian community and confiscated by Turkish authorities. In 1915, after the Armenian Genocide, there was no school left in Western Armenia and more than 1500 Armenian orphans were living in the camp and being taught the Armenian language.

In 1962, the Church Foundation administration, after receiving the necessary permissions from all relevant State institutions like the Foundations Regional Directorate and the Istanbul Governorate, purchased the land plot of the Tuzla Camp from Sait Durmaz, and registered the deed in the foundation’s name. Then, the children at the orphanage worked an entire summer to build the camp where hundreds of children would eventually attend.

On 6 July 1971, the 2nd Civil Chamber of the Court of Cassation, by unanimous vote, approved the recognition as foundation vouchers of the 1936 declarations of community foundations that had no foundation voucher. This served as a legal provision to prevent community foundations from acquiring real estate properties directly or through inheritance.

When the General Assembly of the Court of Cassation approved the decree of the 2nd Civil Chamber of the Court of Cassation on 8 May 1974, the legal precedent was set. In cases filed following this approval, the great majority of immovable assets community foundations acquired after 1936 were seized.

On 23 February 1979, the Foundations General Directorate applied to the Kartal 3rd Civil Court for the cancellation of the deed held by the Gedikpasa Armenian Protestant Church Foundation and the return of it to its former owner. At the end of the case that lasted four years, the court ruled for the return of the property to its former owner. Thus, Sait Durmaz, retook the land he had sold in 1962 as an empty plot, without paying a single penny, and with the camp facilities built on it in the meantime. The Armenian Protestant Church Foundation was forced to return a property it had purchased years ago by fulfilling every manner of legal procedure to its former owner as if it had stolen it in the first place.

When in 2011, a change in the Law on Foundations triggered a process for the return of seized foundation properties; an application was made to the Foundations General Directorate for the Tuzla Children’s Camp as well. However, the Foundations General Directorate, on the basis of the legal cancellation of the sale of the Tuzla Camp, did not treat the file as a ‘seized property’ file, and thus the return of the camp or the payment of compensation did not take place.

Hrant Dink had described the Tuzla Children’s Camp where he grew up, met his future wife, and later assumed its administration along with his wife Rakel Dink as ‘the Atlantis Civilization’. This reference specifically underlines the contribution of the children’s own labor in the creation of the camp.

Photos by Armine Gevorgyan

The Armenian office of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, in cooperationwith the Public Journalism Club and the Media Center, will hold a discussion on the position of Iraqi Yezidi refugees in Armenia on September 30.

Three Yezidi families from Iraq have obtained refugee status in Armenia so far, but community representatives are expecting the government to do more. For instance, the Sinjar Yezidi National Union Sinjar has previously asked the Armenian foreign ministry to work with its Georgian counterpart to facilitate travel from Turkey. The ministry has said this will be a long process since the National Security Service will need to check each individual separately.

Yezidis are the largest minority in Armenia. According to the 2011 census, there were more than 35,000 of them, accounting for about one per cent of the population. Many Yezidis began settling here during the Russian-Turkish wars of the 19th century, and more fled the Ottoman Empire alongside with Armenians during the massacres of 1915.

The US co-chair commented on Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent statement that Nagorno-Karabakh is an inseparable part of Armenia.

The co-chairs remain committed to addressing all elements of a settlement that are of importance to the parties, Warlick added.

Officials from several countries have said that more than 1,000 people died in last week’s stampede near Mecca during the annual Hajj pilgrimage, the reports.

The last figure given by the Saudi authorities was 769.

However, a Nigerian official told the BBC that more than 1,000 bodies had been taken from the disaster site to morgues in the city of Jeddah.

Indian, Pakistani and Indonesian officials have also been quoted as saying they think more than 1,000 died.

Several countries have been severely critical of the way the Saudi authorities have handled the accident’s aftermath, notably Saudi Arabia’s regional rival Iran, which lost at least 228 people in the disaster.

Iranian  claims the Saudi government confirms the death toll in the recent Hajj tragedy has reached 4,173.

It quotes Saudi Vice Minister of Health Hamad bin Muhammad Al-Duweila as saying on Tuesday that he has received a photo showing that 4,173 pilgrims were killed in the tragic incident in Minda, near the holy city of Mecca.

Hovsep  Khurshudyan
Associated Expert
The Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs

It’s highly likely that Azerbaijan, being armed in such rapid temps, will never agree on peaceful resolution of Artsakh conflict, even if the Armenian side is ready to return the liberated territories, including Qarvachar and a greater part of former Lachin region. The maximalism of Aliyev’s regime and torpedoing of a reasonable compromise is being fueled by inflated self-overestimation from petrodollars. In reality, though, this disproportion is a real menace for the security of both Armenia’s and Artsakh’s citizens.

Constant threats of Aliyev the juior towards Armenia, proclamation of the world’s Armenians as Azerbaijan’s enemy, announcing Yerevan, Zangezur and Lake Sevan as “historical territory of Azerbaijan’s ancestors”, should become a serious concern for the citizens of both Armenia and Artsakh. From now on, neutralization of the threat of Aliyev’s regime towards not only Armenia’s security, but its existence as well, must become a priority of foreign and military policies the sooner the better.

In the meantime, while the ruling party having come into power through forged elections in Armenia, proceeds with poor and ineffective governance, the level of corruption in the country is still immense, and houndreds of thousands of citizens migrate, Aliyevs regime has ungrounded hope, that, at last, it would be able to gain such a military advantage towards literally “bleeding Armenia and Artsakh”, then without hesitation, at a proper moment it will resume war and reach cherished goal.

Throughout the last 10 and especially 4-5 years Azerbaijan’s strategic currency reserves, formed from backups of oil foundation and Central Bank, as well as from treasury means of the Ministry of Finances, have increased 30 times, reaching USD 50 billion.

But the West has vital and influential financial levers over Azerbaijan. One of them is the fact, that Azerbaijan’s currency reserves are deposited exclusively in western banks. In case of war it’s not excluded, that under certain circumstances they can be frozen and not allocated to Aliyev. Another lever is the possibility of sharp decrease of oil production volumes by western companies in Azerbaijan.

Funds, which have already been accumulated by Baku, are sufficient for the coming 20 years to spend about USD 2 billion for the purchase of armament each year. This is an indicator, to which Armenia can’t reach at the same period, even if as a result of a miraculous transformation, like regime change, national unity and mobilization of the nation’s power, the annual GDP growth will become 10-15%, and foreign investments will be ten times more as compared to current situation.

As per some calculations, if oil price remains even on the current level, USD 58 for a barrel, and the gas price – USD 104 for 1000m³, 10 years later – in 2025- Azerbaijan’s strategic currency reserves will grow by 10-20 billion, reaching USD 70 billion.

Figure 1. Azerbaijan’s military expenditures 1999-2014 (USD)

The problem under this research is observation not only of tactics and strategy of the Armenian side in case of Azerbaijan’s attack, but also political possibilities and consequences of such scenario, following which any opportunity given by Azerbaijan, will be first and foremost used by Armenia to strike militarily and to defeat enemy’s main attack, its strategic weapons and infrastructures, then under the threat of invading to the territory of Azerbaijan or its realization, peace will be imposed in the form of final trilateral agreement, in which recognition of Artakh’s independence within its constitutional boorders will be provided.

Sustainability of current ceasefire, as well as its end and resumption of military actions are anchored not only on the military component, but on a political as well. Is the political component favorable now? If yes, is this going to last forever for the republics of Armenia and Artsakh?

Under the deepening confrontation between Azerbaijan and the West “giving the green light” by the latter, and especially the USA, shouldn’t be excluded before imposing final peace to Azerbaijan by Armenian military forces.

The possibility to get West’s support will grow, if Armenian forces express readiness to enter the war by certain purposes and conditions consentient with it, among them non-targeting the energy pipelines stretching from Azerbaijan to Europe.

It’ll be more profitable for Armenia to reach to an agreement with the West not striking energy pipelines, and gaining support from the West instead. The Kremlin’s awareness on the availability of such an agreement can itself have a preventive value, and result in not instigating Azerbaijan to resume the war: one of the main reasons of its instigation remaims the assumption, that Azerbaijan’s agression will result in elimination of energy pipelines in the aftermath of Armenian counter-atack that can boost the growth of oil’s world price, acting as a lifeline for Russia’s economy even for a certain period.

By any excuse, whether energy pipeline defense in case of NATO, or support to Armenia within responsibilities of the CSTO (if e.g. Azerbaijan attacks the territory of the Republic of Armenia) in case of Russia or CSTO forces, unilaterally entering the region (first and foremost to Azerbaijan) by a third party can entail in invasion into the territory by other forces.

Moreover, it refers not only CSTO or NATO or Russia and the USA, but also Turkey under the “one century mandate” pretext of defending Nakhijevan, or Iran, for the pretext to provide security of Iran-Armenia road of strategic importance, or, to prevent the possible humanitarian disaster in Talish regions in case of escalation of the situation. In any case, capabilities of western countries and Iran to deploy forces in the region, and especially on the conflict zone, as compared to Russia are very limited though.

In case of a likewise scenario, Azerbaijan can turn into a zone of sectoral presence for extra-regional forces, the future of which will be negotiated between the forces deployed in the region, following the example of post-war Germany.

Resolution of Artsakh conflict under favorable conditions for Armenia and on the basis of shadow agreements with the West can result in strengthening of Armenia’s sovereignty up to liberation from the colonial contract on gas monopoly with Russia signed in 2014.

Otherwise, if after lifting sanctions over Iran an agreement is reached between Tehran and the West in the near future (based on which Iranian and even Turkemenistan’s gas will be supplied to Europe, and one of its possible routes is through the territory of Armenia), then as far as in case of Armenia, the West and Iran will have to come to such an agreement not with Armenia’s authorities, but with the Kremlin.

In that case “Gazprom,” more precisely, Russian bureaucrats and oligarchs, but not Armenia and its people will gain tremendous dividends. Upon the roughest calculations, for transition of 50m³ gas from Meghri to Bavra, about 600km, Armenia, in case of acting as an independent player can gain USD 1 billion net profit (transition of 1000m³ gas for 100km is estimated by USD 3,4). The issue of supplying Iran’s oil and gas to Europe is among the crucial issues, which, in the end made the West to close a deal with Iran.

If republics of Armenia and Artsakh will have to undertake preventive military actions independently, for the purpose of imposing peace to Azerbaijan, then Russia’s and Iran’s interests and possible responses should be taken into account, and not to lead communication and cooperation tubes of the countries to a deadlock. To that end it&#8217
;s of utmost importance to accurately analyse extra-regional interests, from the perspective of final resolution of Artsakh problem through military means.

As a guarantee for Azerbaijan’s renouncement of further revanche ambtitions, after the war Armenia may put the issue of fully provision of autonomous status to national minorities, i.e. Talishes, Lezgins, Tats and Avar-Tsakhurs. In other words: Azerbaijan’s federalisation by affiliate participation of all nations living in the country, formation of a common state under international control, by full decentralization of power and integration of peacekeepers in the regions.

The research was conducted and scenarios were developed by the author in July 2015. The full version of the research will be available on AIISA website () after the expert round table on the topic.