REGROUPING OF INTERESTS BEGINS IN THE REGION
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
/PanARMENIAN.Net/
30.05.2009 GMT+04:00
The only thing Armenia should endeavor to avoid is to be squashed
between the upper and the nether millstones of geopolitics, especially
because she has already such an experience.
The Islamic world surrounding Armenia can be divided into two
groups. By the way, we have considered only those countries, which
have the chances and the potential to become regional leaders
not only within the confines of the Great Near East, but also in
the entire Southwestern Asia. Thus, if we divide the potential
leaders into groups, the following picture is obtained: Turkey,
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the one hand, Iran, Syria and Egypt –
on the other. Division into two groups is conditional and reflects
the attitude of these states towards Armenia.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Let us consider these countries one by one. In
the foreseeable future the first three countries will hardly
change their attitude towards Yerevan because of the uncompromising
position of Turkey (and Azerbaijan) in every issue, starting with
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and concluding with the difference
between religions. Under such circumstances it is necessary to note
that Islam, on the whole, is not such an important constituent in
the relations with Christian Armenia; however, when necessary, it
is put in the forefront. There is one more aspect to be considered –
the difference in civilizations: nomadic and settled. Regarding Turkey
and Azerbaijan this aspect is most clearly expressed, while in Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan it is not so apparent.
The position of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan proceeds not only from
the Islamic solidarity and the support of Azerbaijan, but also to
spite Iran, which together with Turkey is a basic pretender to the
leader’s position in the region. The Kurds, or, to be more exact,
the relation of Yerevan towards them plays an important role in this
plan too. Having been an instrument in the hands of the Ottoman and
Persian Empires for several centuries, the Kurds now pose a serious
threat to the integrity of Turkey. It is a very serious factor, even
further straining the negative relation to Armenia, which by the Sunni
Islamic world is considered to be almost the central supporting base
of Kurdish separatism. As we have already noted, religion is only
a pretense; the main reason is that in the course of its history
Armenia has prevented the propagation of Islam, and before it –
the propagation of Zoroastrianism. This principle did not work in
the case of Iran; most apparently the common Parthian origin of our
nations subconsciously played its role. But we’ll reflect on Iran a bit
later. The second serious pretender to the position of the regional
leader is Pakistan, possessing nuclear weapons. Naturally, no one is
going to employ them, but as a deterrent it works well. Regarding
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Pakistan has been on the side of
Azerbaijan since earliest times, and there are facts proving that
Pakistani militants joined the Afghan and Chechen mujahideen in the
war against the NKR. The possibility of dominance of Saudi Arabia
is somewhat problematic because of the military presence of the USA
during the war with Iraq for Kuwait, and in this case it may play
its negative role. However, this factor is not that important.
As far as the Moslem countries are concerned, which traditionally
support Armenia, the presence of Egypt, Syria and Iran in this list
is more than reasonable and justifiable. First of all, rather an
important role is played by the strong Armenian Diaspora. It should
be remembered that Armenia, Egypt and Syria are also "friends by
a concourse of circumstances"; Egypt and Syria gained independence
as a result of collapse of the Ottoman Empire, just as Armenia to
a certain extent. With respect to Yerevan, Syria and Egypt attempt
to conduct a policy, more independent from the Organization of the
Islamic Conference (OIC), and Iran will never obey the dictates of
Turkish-speaking countries in OIC. The only thing Armenia should
endeavor to avoid is to be squashed between the upper and the nether
millstones of geopolitics, especially because she has already such
an experience. There is no guarantee whatever that Armenia will
not again be sacrificed to the interests of the powers: both old and
new. Although there is some guarantee and no matter how strange it may
sound, it is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Until the conflict gets
final settlement on those conditions, which satisfy the conflicting
parties to a greater or lesser extent, it is possible to live in
a relative peace. But since there is no compromise in the air –
similar conflicts cannot be solved without blood in the favor of
this or that side. Almost no one doubts that sooner or later there
will begin a war in the region. Simply time is required to integrate
forces and finally clear up who against whom will "befriend". However,
it will become clear in no less than five years. By that time it will
be clear how the gas will go to Europe and what ending the infinite
trading between Russia and the West will have. Everything may also
occur considerably earlier: however, nothing essential will occur
in the region before 2012, i.e. the time when Nabucco is launched
and the railroad Baku- Tbilisi-Kars is built. There will be episodic
diplomatic wars and state!