Author: Hambardsumian Paul

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s official visit to Yerevan scheduled for tomorrow is outside the scope of the usual diplomatic protocol and has a pronounced domestic political tone.

On the eve of the decisive parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia on June 7, the appearance of a high-ranking Washington official in the Armenian capital is a direct signal that the United States is trying to influence internal political processes with its political weight and, based on its own interests, to keep the power in Armenia under control. Although the main agenda will probably revolve around the TRIPP project. Visits of this level during the hot pre-election campaign document the desire of foreign forces to guide Armenia’s sovereign election, which Washington uses to make Yerevan’s geopolitical orbit irreversible.

This is not new, but a continuation of the consistent strategy implemented by the American side. back in February of the current year, the visit of the US Vice President JD Vance to Yerevan laid the foundations for this trend. At that time, Vance, speaking about regional projects and the June 7 elections, made an unprecedentedly direct and directional statement for Western diplomacy, stating:

“The question is how to make the peace deal successfully move to the next stage, how to make the prime minister be able to focus on the future.

I know the election is coming up, I don’t want to talk about it, but if my support means anything, he certainly has it. He is a person who can build a long-term partnership to make such projects come to fruition.”

Such a position of the American side clearly shows that the White House considers Pashinyan’s re-election not a free expression of the will of the Armenian people, but a necessary prerequisite for the success of its own strategic and transit programs in the region.

In addition to the American vector, in the past weeks, Yerevan has also turned into a center of European diplomatic activity, which also confirms the foreign bet placed on the current government. With the 8th European Political Community (EPC) summit held in Armenia at the beginning of May and the inaugural RA-EU bilateral summit with the participation of European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brussels tried to strengthen Pashinyan’s position in the domestic political and electoral processes. These measures served as political support for the current administration during the pre-election period, where Europe’s promises of economic and energy “aid” are actually intended to accelerate Armenia’s disengagement from Russia, without considering its dire economic consequences.

Along with such active participation of the West, extremely worrying and unprecedented degradation trends are being recorded in Armenian-Russian relations. Moscow no longer hides its strong opposition to Yerevan’s foreign policy turn and Western orientation, which is manifested in tough rhetoric at the highest level. The last statement of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, where he calls Pashinyan a “scoundrel”, condenses the Kremlin’s response to the developments. Medvedev noted that “as a result of Pashinyan’s dangerous path, the people of Armenia will lose the Russian market and the entire Eurasian Economic Union.”

“It seems that he considers us fools. At the same time, he made a big mistake in his calculations and is pursuing a path that is extremely dangerous for his country,” Medvedev said.

This wording shows that Russia views official Yerevan’s steps as a treacherous turn and is ready to use its own countermeasures to abort Western projects. The current Armenian pre-election campaign has turned into a process accompanied by active, undisguised interference and geopolitical influence. Armenia has appeared in the center of a classic “proxy-political” struggle, where internal elections lose their sovereign content and serve as a platform for global conflicts between the West and Russia. On the one hand, the USA and the EU, through high-ranking visits and political pressure, are trying to support the re-election of Pashinyan’s regime at all costs, on the other hand, Russia, with tough rhetoric and the use of economic and political leverage, shows that it will not allow the country’s final transition to the opposite camp.

In the light of all this, it can be expected that by June 7, the attempts of external influence will reach their peak, where the voter is offered the dilemma “West or Russia”, undermining internal stability, while the Armenian voter must choose a political force, taking into account many other realities.

The June 7 elections for Armenia cease to be a mere internal political event, turning into a decisive conflict of global forces over the country’s geopolitical vector. While the West is trying to strengthen the positions of the current administration with high-level visits and economic promises, and Russia is trying to prevent the loss of influence with harsh warnings and leveraging, the only guarantee of future stability is to make choices based on one’s own sovereign interests and free from external coercion.

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After his visit to China, US President Donald Trump renewed threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Russian President Vladimir Putin is in China after Trump’s visit to China, and while the Russia-China-US triad is trying to reach new geopolitical positions, US President Donald Trump says that the United States may strike Iran again in the coming days if diplomatic efforts do not lead to an agreement with Tehran.

Trump said earlier that the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had asked him to delay the attack, insisting that an agreement would be reached that would be “very acceptable” to the United States. The head of the White House informed that there was one hour left before authorizing a new attack against Iran, when he decided to postpone it.

When asked how much time he is giving Iran to reach an agreement, the president answered: “two or three days”. “Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, maybe next weekend,” Trump said, adding that time is limited because “we cannot allow them [Iran] to have nuclear weapons.” “I hope we won’t start a war, but we might have to give them another big blow. I’m not sure yet,” President Trump told reporters at the White House.

US Vice President J. D. Vance has also stated that the country’s army is in a state of high combat readiness, and the United States will not conclude such a deal with Iran that would allow the country to have nuclear weapons. According to Vance, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran will involve the region in an arms race, which will make the world less safe. Vice President Vance assured that Washington continues to make efforts to conclude a deal with Tehran, adding, however, that “it takes two people to dance the tango.”

Referring to the stalled US-Iran talks, Vance spoke of “great progress”, adding that according to Washington, Tehran also wants to make a deal. The vice-president emphasized that the option of resuming military operations “to achieve the goals of the United States” remains, at the same time adding that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, does not want it.

Iranian “Fars” state agency published a list of five US demands on May 17, which it claims Washington presented to Tehran ahead of the second round of peace talks.

According to “Fars” data, Washington refuses to pay any compensation to Tehran for the damages caused during the war started by the USA and Israel on February 28. The US also intends to withdraw 400 kg of enriched uranium from Iran and agrees to operate only one complex of nuclear facilities in that country. In addition, the administration of President Donald Trump does not agree to the unfreezing of “even 25%” of Iran’s frozen assets, and the cessation of war is directly linked to the progress of negotiations.

According to the Iranian authorities, by proposing such conditions, the United States is trying to achieve the goals it failed to achieve during the war. They also point out that the “threat of aggression” by the USA and Israel will remain even if the presented demands are fulfilled. In this regard, the “Mehr” agency, sponsored by the Iranian authorities, reported on the “dead end” in the negotiations.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also warned that if the United States and Israel resume attacks against Iran, the war in the Middle East will spread beyond the region. “If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will spread far beyond the region this time, and our devastating strikes will crush you,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement published on the Sepah News website.

This warning came after US President Donald Trump announced that Washington could strike Iran again if an agreement on a long-term settlement is not signed in the coming days. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in X that “a return to war will bring many more surprises.”

Iranian media sources reported that Pakistan’s interior minister is traveling to Tehran to hold talks with Iranian officials.

No other details were released. Earlier, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran announced that the process of negotiations with the mediation of Pakistan is continuing. Reuters also wrote that Pakistan has forwarded to the United States a revised proposal by Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East.

Russian orientalist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky 168.amtold that immediately after Donald Trump’s visit to China, the revival of the Iranian agenda and the sharp tightening of rhetoric cannot be considered a coincidence. According to him, the negotiations held in Beijing most likely gave the White House clarity on a key issue. China, despite its deep economic ties with Tehran, is not ready to go to a global confrontation with Washington for the sake of saving Iran.

The analyst believes that the five tough demands put forward by the US, including the export of enriched uranium and maintaining a freeze on financial assets, prove that Washington intends to capitalize on the outcome of the war with an absolute capitulation agreement.

“Trump’s two-three day ultimatum is nothing more than a psychological attack on Iran’s political leadership.” Iran will not accept this. One of the possible scenarios is the resumption of targeted strikes against Iran, if the Pakistani mediation fails. The IRGC’s warning that the war will go beyond the borders of the region shows that Tehran is ready to go for an “asymmetric escalation”, putting US allies and energy hubs in the Persian Gulf under attack,” the analyst said.

He believes that in the context of these geopolitical upheavals, the South Caucasus is under direct attack, as the region borders Iran and is of vital importance to all parties. The new round of military operations against Iran can destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus in political and other aspects.

In addition, the escalation of the Iran-US war may also affect the “North-South” transport corridor, increasing the influence of the West and Israel in the region, which, in turn, will force Russia, despite its current preoccupation, to take drastic countermeasures in order not to lose its positions in the South Caucasus. This warming will also delay some US-brokered projects in the South Caucasus.

Ultimately, the future development of events depends on how effective Pakistan’s mediation mission will be and whether Iran’s revised offer will contain concessions that Trump will be able to present as his own “big win.”

J.D. Vance’s latest statement suggests that Washington is still leaving open the way for a diplomatic retreat: the parties may reach a temporary tactical ceasefire, but the deep-rooted causes of the conflict and the strategic goal of the US-Israel axis, to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, will maintain the riskiness of the situation in the long run,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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