The shadow of the new Iran-US escalation. What is in store for the South Caucasus?

After his visit to China, US President Donald Trump renewed threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Russian President Vladimir Putin is in China after Trump’s visit to China, and while the Russia-China-US triad is trying to reach new geopolitical positions, US President Donald Trump says that the United States may strike Iran again in the coming days if diplomatic efforts do not lead to an agreement with Tehran.

Trump said earlier that the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had asked him to delay the attack, insisting that an agreement would be reached that would be “very acceptable” to the United States. The head of the White House informed that there was one hour left before authorizing a new attack against Iran, when he decided to postpone it.

When asked how much time he is giving Iran to reach an agreement, the president answered: “two or three days”. “Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, maybe next weekend,” Trump said, adding that time is limited because “we cannot allow them [Iran] to have nuclear weapons.” “I hope we won’t start a war, but we might have to give them another big blow. I’m not sure yet,” President Trump told reporters at the White House.

US Vice President J. D. Vance has also stated that the country’s army is in a state of high combat readiness, and the United States will not conclude such a deal with Iran that would allow the country to have nuclear weapons. According to Vance, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran will involve the region in an arms race, which will make the world less safe. Vice President Vance assured that Washington continues to make efforts to conclude a deal with Tehran, adding, however, that “it takes two people to dance the tango.”

Referring to the stalled US-Iran talks, Vance spoke of “great progress”, adding that according to Washington, Tehran also wants to make a deal. The vice-president emphasized that the option of resuming military operations “to achieve the goals of the United States” remains, at the same time adding that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, does not want it.

Iranian “Fars” state agency published a list of five US demands on May 17, which it claims Washington presented to Tehran ahead of the second round of peace talks.

According to “Fars” data, Washington refuses to pay any compensation to Tehran for the damages caused during the war started by the USA and Israel on February 28. The US also intends to withdraw 400 kg of enriched uranium from Iran and agrees to operate only one complex of nuclear facilities in that country. In addition, the administration of President Donald Trump does not agree to the unfreezing of “even 25%” of Iran’s frozen assets, and the cessation of war is directly linked to the progress of negotiations.

According to the Iranian authorities, by proposing such conditions, the United States is trying to achieve the goals it failed to achieve during the war. They also point out that the “threat of aggression” by the USA and Israel will remain even if the presented demands are fulfilled. In this regard, the “Mehr” agency, sponsored by the Iranian authorities, reported on the “dead end” in the negotiations.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also warned that if the United States and Israel resume attacks against Iran, the war in the Middle East will spread beyond the region. “If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will spread far beyond the region this time, and our devastating strikes will crush you,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement published on the Sepah News website.

This warning came after US President Donald Trump announced that Washington could strike Iran again if an agreement on a long-term settlement is not signed in the coming days. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in X that “a return to war will bring many more surprises.”

Iranian media sources reported that Pakistan’s interior minister is traveling to Tehran to hold talks with Iranian officials.

No other details were released. Earlier, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran announced that the process of negotiations with the mediation of Pakistan is continuing. Reuters also wrote that Pakistan has forwarded to the United States a revised proposal by Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East.

Russian orientalist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky 168.amtold that immediately after Donald Trump’s visit to China, the revival of the Iranian agenda and the sharp tightening of rhetoric cannot be considered a coincidence. According to him, the negotiations held in Beijing most likely gave the White House clarity on a key issue. China, despite its deep economic ties with Tehran, is not ready to go to a global confrontation with Washington for the sake of saving Iran.

The analyst believes that the five tough demands put forward by the US, including the export of enriched uranium and maintaining a freeze on financial assets, prove that Washington intends to capitalize on the outcome of the war with an absolute capitulation agreement.

“Trump’s two-three day ultimatum is nothing more than a psychological attack on Iran’s political leadership.” Iran will not accept this. One of the possible scenarios is the resumption of targeted strikes against Iran, if the Pakistani mediation fails. The IRGC’s warning that the war will go beyond the borders of the region shows that Tehran is ready to go for an “asymmetric escalation”, putting US allies and energy hubs in the Persian Gulf under attack,” the analyst said.

He believes that in the context of these geopolitical upheavals, the South Caucasus is under direct attack, as the region borders Iran and is of vital importance to all parties. The new round of military operations against Iran can destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus in political and other aspects.

In addition, the escalation of the Iran-US war may also affect the “North-South” transport corridor, increasing the influence of the West and Israel in the region, which, in turn, will force Russia, despite its current preoccupation, to take drastic countermeasures in order not to lose its positions in the South Caucasus. This warming will also delay some US-brokered projects in the South Caucasus.

Ultimately, the future development of events depends on how effective Pakistan’s mediation mission will be and whether Iran’s revised offer will contain concessions that Trump will be able to present as his own “big win.”

J.D. Vance’s latest statement suggests that Washington is still leaving open the way for a diplomatic retreat: the parties may reach a temporary tactical ceasefire, but the deep-rooted causes of the conflict and the strategic goal of the US-Israel axis, to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, will maintain the riskiness of the situation in the long run,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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