Month: October 2008

NATURALIZED VOTERS CRITICAL IN FUTURE CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS, STUDY SAYS
By Michael Doyle

McClatchy Washington Bureau
October 23, 2008
DC

WASHINGTON — Naturalized citizens in the San Joaquin Valley could
decide future elections, immigrant advocates conclude in a revealing
report issued Thursday.

Nearly one in six voting-age residents in some Valley congressional
districts are foreign-born naturalized U.S. citizens, the new report
shows. This is twice the national average and could shape Valley
politics for years to come.

"We have the ability to carry an election," Tuyet G. Duong, the
daughter of Vietnamese immigrants, declared Thursday. "We’re a force
to contend with."

Duong is senior staff attorney with the Asian American Justice Center,
which helped release the new immigrant voting study. The report
is apparently the first to tally both naturalized citizens and the
children of immigrants, a combined population the report’s authors
dub the New Americans.

"This new immigrant population is just exploding," said research
analyst Rob Paral, the report’s chief author.

This is certainly the case in California, where two years ago 24
percent of all registered voters were naturalized Americans or the
children of immigrants who have arrived since 1965. This far exceeded
any other state and marked an increase from 22 percent in 2004.

California’s 18th Congressional District exemplifies the trend,
stretching from Stockton to Merced and into a sliver of Fresno
County. Nearly 16 percent of the district’s voting-age residents are
naturalized U.S. citizens, the new report shows.

By contrast, only 7.5 percent of voting-age residents nationwide are
naturalized citizens.

The population is similar in the neighboring 20th Congressional
District, which includes Kings County and portions of Fresno and Kern
counties. Slightly more than 14 percent of the district’s registered
voters are naturalized U.S. citizens, the study shows.

"It’s not that everyone comes from Mexico," noted Mike Lynch,
a Modesto-based public policy consultant and former congressional
staffer. "This part of the country has an enormous number of ethnic
groups. We have Armenians. We have Sikhs. We have Ukrainians. We
have Portuguese."

Populations, in turn, drive political agendas. Attuned to
Armenian-American voters, the Valley’s lawmakers have always been in
the forefront of efforts to pass a controversial Armenian genocide
commemoration. Heeding conservative Hmong residents, Valley politicians
denounce the socialist Laotian government. The Congressional Portuguese
Caucus is rooted in the region.

"The Portuguese culture is thriving in the San Joaquin Valley, and
there are many festas (cq) throughout the year, family reunions,
the exchanges of those traditions and the ties that bind us quite
well," Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, said last month as the House passed
a resolution commemorating Portuguese immigration.

Naturalization also burdens Valley congressional offices, where
staffers report they spend considerable time helping immigrants
navigate citizenship hurdles. Latino and Asian immigrants dominate
the rolls of recently naturalized U.S. citizens living in California.

In some parts of the state, the so-called New Americans are even more
of an electoral force — at least, they could be. Naturalized citizens
account for more than one-third of the voting-age populations in some
San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California congressional districts,
according to the study based on Census Bureau data and surveys.

Relatively weak voting turnout, though, also undermines the immigrants’
potential. Sixty-one percent of naturalized U.S. citizens voted in
2004, compared to 73 percent of other Americans.

The report titled "The New American Electorate" was released by the
Washington-based Immigration Policy Center and is meant to serve a
political agenda. The group is part of a foundation created by the
American Immigration Lawyers Association, which supports comprehensive
legislation that legalizes illegal immigrants. The legislation has
stalled on Capitol Hill and advocates hope to regain momentum.

STRATEGIC DEFENSE COORDINATION COMMITTEE ESTABLISHED IN ARMENIA

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 15, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

The Armenian National Security Council discussed results of command
post exercise Frontier’2008 of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization and the condition of the republican judicial system,
National Security Council Secretary, Arthur Bagdasarjan, said.

According to Bagdasarjan, the National Security Committee appraised
the exercise and performance of the involved assets as successful
but recognized existence of certain shortcomings that warranted a
discussion and correction.

"President Serj Sarkisjan ordered the establishment of the
interdepartmental Strategic Defense Coordination Committee to carry out
reforms in this sphere," Bagdasarjan said. "Now that Frontier’2008 is
over, we will concentrate on the reforms in the sphere of conscription
and civil defense."

TURKISH FM HOPES FOR MOMENTUM IN GARABAGH TALKS

AssA-Irada
October 15, 2008 Wednesday
Azerbaijan

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan has expressed hope that talks on
settling the Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict would
be accelerated after the presidential elections held in Azerbaijan
on Wednesday. Babacan told Turkeys TRT-2 TV channel that peace talks
were accelerated after Serzh Sarkisian was elected president in
Armenia. He voiced confidence that the negotiating process would be
intensified after the Azerbaijani elections. The diplomat said Turkish
President Abdullah Gul held talks for several hours at the request
of the Armenian government during his recent visit to Yerevan. During
the talks, the Armenian leadership demonstrated political will for the
solution of outstanding problems, he said. Babacan said that Guls visit
had also provided conditions for turning diplomatic talks with Armenia
into political dialog. Ankara has stated that Turkey-Armenia relations
depended on the relations between Baku and Yerevan. The Upper Garabagh
issue is very important, and Azerbaijan and Armenia continue talks on
settling the conflict, he said. The Turkish minister said that if peace
talks were fruitful, Turkeys relations with Armenia might develop,
adding that he had expressed this opinion during a recent trilateral
meeting with his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts in New York.

BUSH’S IRAQ CAMPAIGN HELPED REVIVE PKK THREAT, SAYS OBAMA

Today’s Zaman
24 October 2008, Friday
Turkey

Barack Obama and his candidate for vice president, Joe Biden, meet
supporters in an election rally.

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has blamed the
administration of Republican President George W. Bush for straining
the country’s ties with Turkey, its NATO ally, and pledged to lead
efforts to bring Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds to find a solution to
the terror threat posed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

In a blueprint of his plans to create a stronger partnership
with Europe, Obama said he and his candidate for vice president,
Joe Biden, believe a close relationship with "a stable, democratic,
Western-oriented Republic of Turkey" is an important national interest
for the United States. "That relationship has been deeply strained in
recent years, most importantly by the Bush administration’s misguided
and mismanaged intervention in Iraq, which has helped revive the
terrorist threat posed to Turkey by the separatist Kurdish Workers
Party [PKK]," the document, published on his election campaign Web
site, said. "The result is that this strategically important NATO
ally, the most advanced democracy in the Muslim world, is turning
against the West," said Obama and Biden, recalling recent opinion
polls indicating that the number of Turks with a favorable opinion
of the United States had fallen to 12 percent.

"Barack Obama and Joe Biden will lead a diplomatic effort to
bring together Turkish and Iraqi Kurdish leaders and negotiate a
comprehensive agreement that deals with the PKK threat, guarantees
Turkey’s territorial integrity, and facilitates badly needed Turkish
investment in and trade with the Kurds of northern Iraq," said the
document.

Most surveys show Obama ahead of his Republican rival John McCain by
a wide margin. A Gallup poll of world countries showed this week that
the world’s population as a whole supports Obama 4-1 over McCain,
a result reflecting the public mood in Turkey, as well. Although as
many as 70 percent of Turks are indifferent about the outcome of the
Nov. 4 election, 22 percent want Obama to win, as opposed to only 8
percent favoring McCain.

Turkish-US relations have been strained since the US-led invasion of
Iraq in 2003. The Turkish public’s sympathy for the US has dropped
significantly amid US inaction to end the PKK presence in northern
Iraq despite repeated Turkish requests. In November last year, Bush,
after a meeting with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White
House, declared the PKK a "common enemy" for Turkey, the United States
and Iraq. The US military also began to supply intelligence about the
PKK to facilitate Turkish cross-border raids on the terrorist group’s
targets in northern Iraq. Turkish officials say intelligence sharing
with the United States has been functioning effectively.

Obama and Biden made no mention of a 2003 vote in Turkish Parliament
rejecting a US request to use Turkish territory to open a northern
front on Iraq, a development that irritated the United States and
is believed to have prompted the Bush administration not to heed
subsequent Turkish demands for action against the PKK.

"Barack Obama and Joe Biden will support the promotion of democracy,
human rights, and freedom of expression in Turkey and support its
efforts to join the European Union," the document said.

In a declaration likely to please the Turkish government, Obama and
Biden also said the United States must work with European partners
to isolate Iran economically and politically if "it continues to
support terrorism and defy the Security Council’s demand that it
suspend uranium enrichment."

Ankara is opposed to nuclear weapons, but calls for a solution through
dialogue to the international row over Iran’s nuclear program. A US
administration led by McCain is expected to push for tough sanctions,
including use of military force, to deter Iran from pursuing its
nuclear program, which Tehran says is aimed at generating energy.

"Unlike the Bush administration, Barack Obama and Joe Biden would
conduct direct talks with Iran, a move that would bolster support
from our allies and demonstrate that any lack of progress from the
Iranians is due to Tehran’s refusal to cooperate, not a lack of
seriousness or leadership from the United States," said the document.

Their blueprint also touched on the division of Cyprus and pledged
that an Obama administration will "show US leadership in seeking to
negotiate a political settlement on Cyprus" and insisted that the
island’s Turkish and Greek communities should unite.

"A negotiated political settlement on Cyprus would not only end the
island’s tragic division but would pave the way to prosperity and
peace throughout the entire region. It would finally give repose to
the people of Cyprus after many years of division and uncertainty. It
would help foster better Greek-Turkish relations, strengthen Turkish
democracy, reduce the risk of military conflict, and remove a major
obstacle to Turkish membership in the EU," the document explained.

They did not refer to the issue of Armenian claims of genocide
at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire, something that Turkish
policy-makers fear would cause problems in relations with an Obama
administration. Obama has repeatedly pledged to Armenian-American
voters that the US will recognize the genocide claims if he is elected.

ILHAM ALIYEV: AZERBAIJAN’S PLAYBOY TURNED STRONGMAN

Agence France Presse
October 15, 2008 Wednesday 11:07 AM GMT

Ilham Aliyev, expected to sweep Azerbaijan’s presidential election on
Wednesday, has transformed his playboy image into that of a strongman
like his father, whom he succeeded to the top job in 2003.

When the well-groomed, laid-back son of veteran leader Heydar
Aliyev won the election five years ago, most thought he lacked the
ruthlessness and cunning needed to match the dominance his father
had exerted for more than 30 years.

In what was the former Soviet Union’s first family succession, the
younger Aliyev took over from his dying father after an election
widely criticised as less than free and fair.

Five years on, his re-election, challenged by no serious opponent,
is a foregone conclusion.

"He has imposed himself as a politician. He is stronger than he was
five years ago thanks to the oppression of his opponents," said Sabit
Baghirov, former head of the state oil company SOCAR.

Independent political analyst Rasim Musabayov said: "Ilham Aliyev
surprised us. He is his father’s son. Many of us under-estimated him."

Contrasting Aliyev to Mikheil Saakashvili, his counterpart in Georgia,
another former Soviet republic of the Caucasus now closely allied
with Washington, Musabayov said the Azeri leader has "demonstrated
prudence."

And although he has done little to resolve a festering dispute with
Armenia over the territory of Nagorny Karabakh, Aliyev has also made
no big mistakes in five years at the helm, he said.

Aliyev, who has a doctorate in history and studied at Moscow’s
prestigious State Institute for International Relations, had served
as vice president of SOCAR, as a parliamentary member and as president
of the national Olympic committee.

But the moustachioed young successor could not shake off his image
of a playboy and heavy gambler dating from the early 1990s. In
a political system characterised by regional clans and competition
over growing Caspian Sea oil wealth, Aliyev was widely assumed to be
a transitional figure.

But the 46-year-old has since surprised critics with both his toughness
and flexibility, a combination illustrated by the jailing of some
political opponents and the freeing of others.

Experts credit Aliyev with adeptly exploiting his oil-rich country’s
strategic importance to become a genuine player on the international
scene that must be reckoned with.

His country has joined GUAM, an anti-Russian bloc grouping four
former Soviet republics; a string of senior US officials have stopped
by recently to show their support ahead of the vote; and Moscow is
courting Azerbaijan to secure gas purchases.

"He lives according to the legacy of his father, but he is trying
to set his own agenda," said a Western diplomat in Baku, speaking on
condition of anonymity.

"When he came to power he was not a politician. But he has demonstrated
that he is capable of running a country, which is nothing to sneeze
at," the diplomat said.

On the domestic front, Aliyev has managed to stabilise his country’s
economy, although critics say he has done little to improve
Azerbaijan’s abysmal human rights situation.

Journalists complain he is even tougher than his father and has
created a climate that discourages free media. The assassination in
March 2005 of Elmar Huseynov, a fierce government critic, dealt a
heavy blow to press freedom.

"We believed this was someone young, energetic, modern, capable of
building relations with people," said Shakhbaz Khuduoglu, a journalist
close to the country’s opposition.

"He proved us wrong," he said.

Born on December 24, 1961, Ilham Aliyev speaks fluent English, French
and Russian.

He is married to Mekhriban Aliyeva, an eye doctor with whom he appears
regularly on television. The couple have three children.

OPINION: U.S. COULD LEARN A THING OR TWO FROM TURKEY’S SOFT-POWER DIPLOMACY
By Trudy Rubin

San Jose Mercury News
October 16, 2008 Thursday
California

ANKARA, Turkey Americans who explore the wonders of Istanbul rarely
visit Turkey’s capital, deep in the plains of Anatolia. Ankara
is known mainly for two things: a stunning museum that highlights
Turkey’s ancient Anatolian past, and the vast hilltop mausoleum of
Ataturk, Turkey’s founder, whose stern face is visible on huge banners
throughout the city.

But Ankara is becoming known for something else that’s of great
strategic interest to Americans: an active foreign policy that may
help resolve conflicts in critical regions where the United States
has faltered. That includes the troubled Caucasus region, where Russia
just warred with Georgia, and the Middle East.

"If you list the key issues which Turkey and the United States pursue,
you’d be amazed by how many parallels there are," Turkey’s president,
Abdullah Gul, Enhanced Coverage LinkingAbdullah Gul, -Search using:
Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days told a small group
of visiting U.S. journalists and think-tank experts in an interview
in his office this week.

At the crossroads

Indeed, almost every foreign crisis on the U.S. agenda is also a
concern for Gul. Turkey sits at the crossroads of Asia and Europe,
bordering not only the European Union, but also Georgia, Iraq, Iran
and Syria. It has been adversely affected by growing Mideast chaos
since the Iraq war.

Turkey also sits at an energy crossroads. Efforts to build new oil
and gas pipelines from Central Asia and the Caucasus pipelines that
will circumvent Russia and make Europe less dependent on it all rely
on Turkey.

Instability in its environs has prompted Turkey to become more active
in conflict resolution. "In regional foreign policy, we had numerous
problems with our neighbors," Gul said. "They must be resolved,
or there cannot be peace."

Turkey’s emphasis has been, for the most part, on soft power and
diplomacy. It is the only country with fair to good relations with
every country in neighboring regions: close ties to Israel as well
as to Arab states; good relations with Iran and carefully managed
relations with Russia; and close ties to Georgia.

Two of Turkey’s many mediation efforts could have a positive impact on
key concerns of the United States. First is Turkey’s recent overture
to Armenia. The two nations have deep disagreements over how 1 million
Armenians were killed in the early 20th century; Armenians call it
genocide, while Turkey insists it was the result of warfare.

In September, Gul became the first Turkish president in history to
visit Armenia. Gul had sent congratulations to Serge Sargsyan upon
his election as Armenia’s president, and Gul in turn was invited
to attend a soccer match between the Turkish and Armenian teams in
Yerevan. Both leaders faced strong domestic opposition to the visit.

"Of course, I didn’t just go to watch soccer," Gul said.

Conflict mediation

The goal is to work toward normalizing relations between Armenia and
Turkey and opening their border. Turkey also may be able to mediate
the poisonous split between Armenia and a third Caucasus country,
Azerbaijan.

Progress on resolving these conflicts could have a positive spillover
for the Russia-Georgia standoff and prospects for new pipelines.

A second example is Turkey’s mediation of peace talks between Syria
and Israel. "We’ve worked hard to bring peace in the region," Gul
said. "Recently, that work became more visible."

At a time when the United States preferred to isolate Syria, Turkey
worked to get Syria and Israel back to the table. Four rounds of
private talks have taken place; they are now on hold as Israel forms
a new government.

A Syria-Israel peace would end the current alliance between Syria and
Iran and undercut Hezbollah, forcing Tehran to rethink its policies
in the region.

The bottom line: The next U.S. president should encourage Turkey’s
mediation and take a cue from its soft-power efforts. Turkey’s
diplomacy has opened up new possibilities for its U.S. ally.

Trudy Rubin is a columnist and member of the Philadelphia Inquirer"s
editorial board.

SUSPECTS ON TRIAL FOR PLANNING TO INCITE COUP IN TURKEY
By Larisa Epatko

NewsHour
October 23, 2008, 2:05 PM ET

A massive trial underway in Turkey — involving retired military
generals, journalists, politicians and a university rector accused of
trying to create the conditions for a coup — might have far-reaching
political and military implications.

The lawsuit names 86 people allegedly connected to a secret
ultranationalist organization known as Ergenekon after the legend
describing the re-emergence of the Turks who successfully fought
their enemy using the cunning of a gray wolf. Forty-six of the 86
defendants are in custody.

A 2,455-page indictment says the group was behind the murders of a
prominent judge, a priest, Armenian journalist Hrant Dink and three
Christian publishing house employees, and the bombing of newspaper
Cumhuriyet’s offices in Istanbul in 2006.

Prosecutors claim the group was planning to target other prominent
figures, including Nobel Prize-winning author Orhan Pamuk, in order
to spur a military takeover of the government in 2009.

The investigation began in July 2007 after police found hand grenades
and other explosives in a house in Istanbul. The case has riveted the
Turkish public’s attention because it feeds into the belief that a
"deep state" of military, intelligence and judiciary elements are
working behind the scenes to manipulate the country’s political,
business and education elite.

The trial opened Oct. 20 in a heavily guarded courtroom on the
outskirts of Istanbul and is expected to take months to complete.

Critics say the case is politically motivated and is being used
by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party to silence its
opponents.

The defendants include retired Brig. Gen. Veli Kucuk, nationalist
Workers’ Party leader Dogu Perincek, Cumhuriyet columnist Ilhan Selcuk,
former Istanbul University rector Kemal Alemdaroglu and nationalist
lawyer Kemal Kerincsiz.

Lawyers for the defendants are questioning the ties that prosecutors
are making between people from different and often opposing
backgrounds, the New York Times reported.

According to Turkish-born professor Henri Barkey, chairman of
the Department of International Relations at Lehigh University in
Pennsylvania, the suspects involved could be considered "the gang that
couldn’t shoot straight" for operating under the assumption that if
you create a little bit of violence, the army will intervene.

Although Turkey has had four military coups since becoming a republic
in 1923, the likelihood of Turkey experiencing another coup is
diminishing as it seeks to attract foreign investments and become an
international player.

"There is no question that if, for example, tomorrow there were to be
a military coup in a traditional sense in Turkey, the Turkish economy
would collapse," Barkey said. And now with the global economic crisis,
chances of a coup are even less, he added.

Still, the trial itself could have some serious implications, said
Barkey, and depending on which way the verdict goes, the case could
puncture the military’s untouchable persona. In a country where
the military is generally held in high regard, several four-star
and two-star generals, along with other military officers, are being
tried by a civilian prosecutor in a civilian court for the first time,
he said, and that could transform civil-military relations.

NAREK HAKHNAZARYAN AT THE COLONIAL
By Clarence Fanto

The Berkshire Eagle (Pittsfield, Massachusetts)
October 16, 2008 Thursday

PITTSFIELD — The time-honored joke about how to get to Carnegie Hall
— "practice, practice, practice!" — could use some updating in our
multimedia era.

For rising young Armenian cellist Narek Hakhnazaryan, entering and
winning every competition in sight, acquiring a Web presence for audio
and video samples, and being signed by Young Concert Artists (YCA),
a management group that has launched many a stellar career, have been
equally important. His launching pad is well-equipped for liftoff,
subject to the vagaries of audience reaction and the imponderables that
spell the difference between fame, obscurity, or something in between.

Tonight at the Colonial Theatre, Hakhnazaryan, 19, will offer Berkshire
audiences a first hearing of his upcoming recitals later this month
at Carnegie’s Zankel Hall and at the Kennedy Center.

The performance at 7 is sponsored by Joseph and Mary Jane
Handler. Piano accompanist is Noreen Polera, and the program includes
music by Beethoven, Schumann, Paganini and Shostakovich, as well as
brief works by contemporary Russian composer Rodion Shchedrin and
Armenian composer Adam Khudoyan (1921-2000).

Soccer ambitions

During a telephone interview from the YCA offices in Manhattan,
Hakhnazaryan confessed that even though his parents were musicians,
"I didn’t want to play any instrument when I was small, I just
wanted to play soccer like everyone else. But of course, my parents
wanted me to be a musician." One day, without warning, his mother,
a pianist, enrolled him in a cello class at the Yerevan Music School
in Armenia’s ancient city, the republic’s capital and now a bustling
metropolis. "My father, who had wanted me to be a violinist like him,
was very surprised but pleased," he recalled.

"Everybody says I caught on very quickly, and that my hands were
very good for the cello." By the time he was 11, Hakhnazaryan had
won the Armenian Republic competition. After a summer of classes in
Suzdal, near Moscow, he was invited to study at the Moscow Tchaikovsky
Conservatory. He moved to the Russian capital with his mother, while
his father stayed behind in Yerevan to continue playing in the Komitas
Quartet, founded in 1924.

The young cellist is now a third-year student at the Moscow State
Conservatory; already, he has performed in the U.S., France, Germany,
Austria, Greece, England and Canada.

He launched his current tour at Saint Vincent College in Latrobe,
Pa., where he found that listeners "didn’t show their emotions at
first, but they became warmer toward the end of the concert. Some
audiences are very warm from the beginning; the differences are very
interesting." He covets younger audiences because connecting with
them is more challenging. "They like different music," Hakhnazaryan
acknowledged, "but many people my age enjoy my concerts and come up
to me afterwards."

Although the prospect of performing recitals at Carnegie Hall or
the Kennedy Center is nerve-wracking, "that’s nothing compared to
competitions. You don’t know whether you are playing well in front of
the judges." But nerves did not prevent him from scoring First Prize
in the 2006 Aram Khachaturian International Competition in Armenia
and Fifth Prize at the 2007 Tchaikovsky International Competition in
Moscow, among others.

Role models

Cellists who have served as role models include Gregor Piatigorsky
and Steven Isserlis, and favored composers range from Schumann and
Shostakovich to Prokofiev and Bach. "It depends on my mood," he said,
"but of course for me there is one composer always in my heart —
Beethoven."

In his down time, he enjoys Armenian folk music ("I can listen to it
forever") and jazz, especially the late pianist Oscar Peterson. "I
like all musicians who are talented, it doesn’t matter which style
it is," Hakhnazaryan stressed, listing Led Zeppelin and The Prodigy
among his favorite rock performers.

Future uncertain

Apart from completing his conservatory studies in Moscow, his future
plans are up in the air, except for a desire to live in the U.S.,
where he finds New York City especially fascinating.

"I’m not even thinking about it," he insisted. "I can see from my
own experience that if I think about the future a lot, it’s not
happening. I’m just trying to do my best."

After a foundation-sponsored performance in San Francisco in
February 2006, Hakhnazaryan earned high praise from a reviewer for
the San Francisco Classical Voice Web site — "he gave an eloquent and
fearless performance in some ways, gloriously old-fashioned. A young
Piatigorsky would have been proud of such rhythms, such confident
sound. His intonation was superb." Now he’s under the aegis of Young
Concert Artists, which helped launch the careers of Emanuel Ax,
Dawn Upshaw, Richard Goode and other classical luminaries and has a
"legendary track record of spotting the best new talent in classical
music," according to The New York Times.

Hakhnazaryan hopes this roll of the dice comes up sevens.

In concert What: Cellist Narek Hakhnazaryan, with pianist Noreen
Polera. Music by Beethoven, Schumann, Paganini, Shostakovich,Shchedrin,
Khudoyan

Who: Young Concert Artists

When: Tonight 7

Where: The Colonial Theatre, 111 South St., Pittsfield.

Tickets: $12 (adults), $6 (students)

How: (413) 997-4444; ; at the box office

ROLES ARE CHANGING
by Aram Abrahamyan

Aravot
October 16, 2008 Thursday
Armenia

New developments are probably expected in the Karabakh
settlement. Those will become apparent in the near future, as
today [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev will officially "get
established again" in his presidential office (it would have been a
great exaggeration to speak about an election in this case). Although
the co-chairs of the [OSCE] Minsk Group always say that Armenia’s
and Azerbaijan’s peoples and the leadership of these countries should
solve the issue themselves, it is, however, clear that this is mostly a
diplomatic formula. If Russia, the USA and Europe have come to a final
and perfect consensus in this issue, our two countries are facing
serious challenges. The question is whether this consensus has been
reached or not. Naturally, I do not have the answer to this question,
but there have been some signs that the roles of superpowers in our
region have changed since August this year [Russian-Georgian conflict].

It seemed half a year ago that Russia was the major advocate of
preservation of the existing situation and the status quo. However,
the Russian-Georgian war showed that the Russian Federation (probably
due to excess income from gas and oil) feels so confident and strong
that it can go for not freezing the regional problems, as was the
case before, but settling those to its own benefit. Russia acted
exactly the same way in the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
– spoiling relations with the USA to some extent and receiving
Europe’s actual support. This does not mean at all that our strategic
partner will settle the Karabakh issue in the same (military) way –
such a scenario is excluded in practice. However, this means the
following: the three mediator countries [Russia, France and the USA]
usually announce unanimously that "we are interested in the speediest
settlement of the issue" and so on, but at the same time at least one
of these countries "mimics" to us or the Azerbaijanis that what they
say officially are empty words and that their actual intentions are
different. We or the Azerbaijanis are planning a course of our actions
accordingly. Nowadays no such hints will be made, at least by Russia.

One should not conclude from all this that nothing depends on Armenia
or Azerbaijan. If the public of our countries expect a "pro-Armenian"
or "pro-Azerbaijani" solution, then it is very probable that the
settlement will remain in the dead end: if any proposal or its
component is made public, political forces will receive extensive
opportunities to continue the issue in the internal political "rear"
and portray the government as "betrayers of the nation". In this
case, the establishment of peace will be postponed indefinitely once
again. It is hard to say who benefits from this. It is unlikely that
it is our two countries’ peoples.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARMENIAN OPPOSITION URGES GOVERNMENT TO "MITIGATE" EFFECTS OF WORLD CRISIS

Mediamax
October 16, 2008 Thursday
Armenia

Yerevan, 16 October: Oppositional Armenian National Congress (ANC) made
a statement, in which it demanded from the government taking measures
"to mitigate the consequences of the global financial crisis". Mediamax
reports that the statement of ANC, headed by Ex-President of Armenia
Levon Ter-Petrosyan, reads that "by its inaction and absence of
corresponding measures, the government contributes to deepening of
the approaching crisis and shocks".

The opposition demanded from the government realizing a number of
measures, among which:

"CB [Central Bank] should introduce a ban for construction recrediting
by commercial banks and a 100 per cent reservation of such credits";

"The government and the CB should announce about ruling out any
limitations, related to return of deposits, at least, in cases,
when the term of the deposit has not expired";

"The government and CB should guarantee 100 per cent return of
shares, issued by ‘ArmRosGazprom’ and ‘Vallex Group’ Companies by
means of IPOs. At the same time, they should ban realization of new
IPOs without the government’s participation;

"CB should lift all limitations concerning money transfers systems";

"CB should take upon itself the responsibility to secure in the course
of the coming 6 months the exchange rate of the national currency
within the limits, established together with the government".