Author: Jagharian Tania

Vahe Davtyan writes: “The state debt per capita in Armenia has reached 4,700 US dollars, compared to 4,200 US dollars last year.

Debt is growing in an economy with an increasingly eroded industrial base and declining demographic dynamics (albeit with immigration touted. I’ll get to that separately).

The main problem is that the debt does not turn into an economic result.

There is no qualitative economic change. There is no increase in productivity. There is no development of value-added industries. You don’t have to go far – open the economic statistics of the last years.

And where does that money go?

Mainly, capital expenditures, the results of which are obvious. asphalt crumbling before our eyes every day, rapidly decaying infrastructures, showy and unviable projects.

This is simply a waste of funds with no return.

As a result, the debt becomes not a development resource, but a political tool to close the budget holes, fulfill the social function of the state, and show short-term “results”.

Yes, the debt-to-GDP ratio still does not cross the red line: 47.3%, under the conditions of the 50% target index.

But this is the surface. Deep down lies the real risk: the burden of debt is shifted onto businesses, households and future taxpayers without a corresponding economic return.

The longer this pattern continues, the more expensive the consequences will be.”

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The US and Israel have long claimed to have destroyed Iran’s air defenses, air force, navy and leadership, but the international press is discussing Iran’s latest strikes on the US-British military base on Diego Garcia Island, some 4,000 km away.

Iran has reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at the military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. Tehran called this a success, although it is also noted that one of the missiles fell into the sea, and an SM-3 interceptor missile was launched from an American destroyer in the direction of the second. In other words, as a result, none of them reached the target. However, the “Военный Осведимитель” telegram channel writes that this is an important moment in the course of the conflict.

“The problem is that for many years Iran maintained a unilateral limitation of the range of ballistic missiles – 2000 km. This was done in order to demonstrate the “absence of aggressive intentions”, “the absence of a global threat from Iran” and generally “not to complicate the negotiation background”. However, the former leader of Iran, who approved that limit, has been killed and is already going to war.

Iran originally had missiles capable of a range of 4,000 km. For example, missiles of the “Khoramshahr” family have a standard range of 2,000 km, but with a 1.5-2 ton warhead.

It is not necessary to develop a new missile. you can install a significantly lighter warhead, slightly change the mode of operation of the engine, and the missile will fly much further. Thus, the North Korean relative of Khoramshahr, the Hwasong-10 missile, demonstrated the ability to fly 3,400 km back in 2016.

And nothing prevented them from preparing something else in their warehouses, they could not test it, or test it and not announce it, so as not to “spoil the negotiation background”. They can also be used for space program needs rather than military. In any case, the geography of Iranian strikes is expanding, and the use of the existing technological stock is not restrained by various self-limitations,” writes the military telegram channel.

The analysis notes that, for comparison, the US has another similar base on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean. According to the publication, the same North Korea successfully tested the Hwasong-12 missile in 2017 to hit Guam in case of war, and created a nuclear warhead for it.

“It has also conducted multiple test launches over Japan at an appropriate distance (3,700 km) on a conventional trajectory (as well as a suspended trajectory to demonstrate that the missile can also fly further with a recalculated conventional trajectory). This was done in order to show the possibility of access and the determination to strike if necessary, without any self-limitation, even in order not to “complicate the negotiation background”…” the channel notes.

168.amin the conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the Diego Garcia base is an important target for Iran, because it is from there that the US bombards Iran and it is there that the key logistics point of the US Navy is located. Therefore, according to him, it will be difficult to overestimate the importance of hitting it.

“However, as of now, even without hitting that island, Iran has solved a problem for itself by showing that it has long-range missiles that many had no idea about. This is even more impressive in the background of statements that Iran’s potential has been eliminated. Therefore, even without hitting a woman, this is considered a success in Iran. In addition, this step shows the military determination and the policy of not avoiding the escalation of the war, which is no less important. This also introduces unpredictability into the war, because if there are missiles of such a range, they can be directed in other directions as well. Therefore, this is something that the USA and Iran cannot ignore,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

He also described another news in this war situation with Iran as very surprising.

“The US Department of Finance partially lifted the sanctions on Iranian oil for one month, allowing the purchase and sale of Iranian oil in order to reduce the prices of energy carriers. Because of the war, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, shaking the global energy market. As a result of all this, the US is lifting the existing sanctions against Tehran, something that Tehran demanded during the peace talks and could not agree to.

In fact, Washington was forced to make such a decision, and earlier it had made a similar decision regarding Russian oil. Everyone in the world knew about the consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz, why this was not calculated by the US is incomprehensible, because this forced step to lift sanctions against Iran during the war works against the US itself,” the analyst said.

He believes that the most important thing here is that the US initial calculation and hopes were not justified, after which everything went according to the Iranian plan.

“The American initial plan was a quick action with quick results, because the USA probably understood well that it is not possible to have a long war with such a country at such a distance. Iran is a country that has at least many levers in the region. I think that Iran’s attacks on the Qatar oil refinery were also important in this last chain. Everything shows that the US has lost control over the processes, as a result of which it is resorting to highly undesirable and forced steps,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

He believes that these developments in the region and neighboring regions still strengthen the role of Iran.

“This applies to the South Caucasus as well. However, the war continues, it is too early for final conclusions,” he said.

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yesterday 168.am“Is the 44-day report now more than 200 pages or more than 400? What is Andranik Kocharyan messing up and what important things does he not remember? article: published, where we noted that Andranik Kocharyan, the chairman of the RA NA Standing Committee on Defense and Security Affairs, has always stated that the 44-day report is about 200 or 215 pages long, moreover, even when it was already forwarded to NA Speaker Alen Simonyan.

But on March 17, on the air of “Armenia” TV Company, the chairman of the RA NA Standing Committee on Defense and Security Issues declared.

“The report of the investigative commission became more than 400 pages, with its video recordings, text part, minutes.”

Agree that the difference is big.

It should be noted that when Andranik Kocharyan mentioned about 200 pages, they were mentioned again the recordings, videos, 16,000 documentary materials.

After the publication of the article, we managed to find out some things that, for example, Andranik Kocharyan attached to the report of the investigative commission as an appendix the written analysis of Onik Gasparyan, the former head of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia, on 70-80 pages.

In addition to this, Andranik Kocharyan’s several-page letter-analysis related to the Su-30s, which he presented to Pashinyan, and which was also mentioned during Pashinyan’s questioning by the investigative commission, was also attached to the 44-day report.

“The much-discussed fact about the Su-30s. As a political authority, I have set a simple task before the army. say what you need and you will have it. They said: Su-30 is needed. Can you imagine an airplane from time to time? If I remember correctly, Mr. Kocharyan, you wrote me a letter on that topic and presented an analysis. I took that letter and wrote to the Ministry of Defense how appropriate it is to acquire these planes. I signed that letter to the Ministry of Defense, I said: there is such a point of view, discuss and tell. I received an answer that we discussed it, and our conclusion is that we need it,” on June 27, 2023, in the Investigative Committee. had announced Pashinyan.

By the way, Andranik Kocharyan in an interview given to Factor in February 2024 had said. “Our equipment did not fly from the beginning, then it flew partially, then it was detected and shot down. Now, in order to solve the combat problem, the General Assembly has given its consent to go to the full stage, and many have gone to the full stage.”

He then continued. “We had wrong acquisitions of weapons, by the way, I sent the information gathered by the Investigative Commission to the Prosecutor General of RA.”

Then we write We sent inquiries Andranik Kocharyan, including in connection with the Su-30s, to which he replied:

“Answers to questions about weapons and others will be included in the above report.”

And “The subjective aspect of the Investigative Commission’s report. “Following the facts” in our article we reported that an expert working in the Investigative Commission had a significant role in the preparation of the 44-day report General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia Former head of the radio electronic warfare department, colonel Vahan Avetisyan, which went through the well-known arms case of 42 million to “metal scraps”, but years later the criminal prosecution against him was stopped.

However, in April 2020, when he was still in “Yerevan-Kentron” prison, open letter corrected Nikol Pashinyan, saying that “he is being harassed by the head of the State Security Service Artak Davtyan and his deputy Stepan Galstyan”.

The letter also referred to the Su-30s.

“After the velvet revolution of 2018, I had the courage to express a professionally substantiated opinion and question the feasibility of acquiring Su-30 aircraft for the RA Armed Forces.

Immediately after that, I was persecuted by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Artak Davtyan and his deputy Stepan Galstyan…” the letter stated.

By the way, SUs were used in the 44-day war and solved a certain combat problem.

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Today, Nikol Pashinyan remembered the former. in general, according to tradition, in pre-election speeches, the thread of the past is always passed in Pashinyan’s speeches.

Today, during another briefing, when journalists accused the government of not fulfilling the 2021 plan and ultimately handing over Artsakh, Pashinyan responded that the preface of their plan stated the priority: peace in the region.

Journalists also recalled Pashinyan’s statement by which he recognized Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan responded by first noting that “no government has done as much for Karabakh as our government”, then added: Nagorno-Karabakh has always been part of Azerbaijan, and Armenia has always recognized it as part of Azerbaijan, it was simply hidden to prevent Armenia from being an independent state.

“And that process was led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan, and now they have brought the related Russian-Belarusian oligarchs, realizing that their card has been redeemed,” he noted.

Former RA Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan 168․amupdated Pashinyan’s memory in a conversation with “It is known that Nagorno-Karabakh was a semi-independent state, and the Minsk Group was created, which recognized that the problem of Karabakh’s self-determination is legal, fair, and a solution must be found. That was the reaction of the world.

Karabakh was not completely independent, but in Karabakh we legally used the Armenian dram, production entities of Karabakh carried out export and import operations, moreover, citizens of Karabakh, residents, received Armenian passports and were issued visas, they could travel freely, etc. In other words, Artsakh was able to achieve many things. The status of Artsakh was absolutely legal until the Minsk Group made a decision.

Artsakh was handed over to Azerbaijan by Nikol Pashinyan. it happened before our eyes. All other statements, regarding the presidents, some oligarchs, they are another pre-election tricks, with which they try to mislead the voters.”

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