Month: August 2008

HOSTAGE EUROPE BLIND TO IRAN ENERGY
by Hossein Askari

Asia Times Online
H21Ag01.html
Aug 20 2008
Hong Kong

Europe has become alarmingly dependent on Russia for its energy needs,
dependent on Russian gas and oil and on gas and oil from the Caspian
region that flow through pipelines under Russian control and influence.

Europe has naively banked its future energy needs on Russia in the
belief that it will behave like a boy scout, no blackmail and threats,
no intervention in neighboring countries, and no monopoly price
gauging. It is not that Europe does not have other options. It does,
both for sources of oil and gas and on pipeline routes to transport
them that avoid Russian control, reduce Russia’s monopoly power and
its ability to hold Europe hostage. The key is Iran. But Europe is
blindly following a flawed US policy on Iran and that will cost the
energy importer dearly. It is a recipe for economic and political
disaster that is surely to follow.

In 2007, Europe imported about 220 billion cubic meters (bcm) of
natural gas, of which 165 bcm was piped gas, with the rest in the
form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Crucially, about 150 bcm of
this gas was from the Russian Federation (all piped), making Europe
dependent on Russia for 68% of its natural gas imports. By 2015,
Europe is projected to import a total of 300 bcm of gas with even
a higher dependence on gas from the Russian Federation. That’s an
enviable monopoly power that you would not afford to your closest
ally, let alone to Russia. European leaders may need to have their
heads examined.

Europe’s dependence on Russia for its energy needs goes beyond natural
gas and extends to oil also. The Druzhba oil pipeline carries about
40% of Russia’s total oil exports, with a capacity of over 2 million
barrels per day (mbd), of which about 1.5 mbd is destined for the
European Union. This represents about 12.5% of oil consumption in
the 27-country bloc, while directly providing about 40% of Germany’s
consumption.

But Russia is not satisfied with even this degree of control. It wants
total control over the pipeline system that supplies Europe’s oil
and gas. That is, it wants to control the pipeline transit countries
or to bypass the countries altogether. Russia does not want to be
held hostage by any transit country, rather it wants to assert its
energy muscle as no country has ever done before. It wants importing
countries to be its hostage.

The Russia of Prime Minister and former president Vladimir Putin
wields influence because of its gas reserves and because of the
pipeline network that it controls. It has realized that one without
the other does not give it the power it wants. Putin has consolidated
his country’s oil and gas sectors and brought them firmly under state
control as a weapon of influence, especially against Europe.

But about 90% of the Russian gas that goes to Western Europe transits
Ukraine. So Russia cannot dictate to Ukraine if it wants to continue
piping its gas to Europe through this channel, as Ukraine can in turn
stop the trans-shipment of Russian gas to Europe. Russia wants to be
able to control all of its customers independently.

A case in point was in 2005, when Ukraine, facing Russian blackmail
for gas supplies, forced Moscow to back down because of Ukraine’s
control over the pipelines that carried Russian gas onwards to
Europe. This taught Russia an invaluable lesson that Europe still has
not grasped. To have absolute monopoly power in piped energy you need
to control both the energy source and its transportation.

Russia (in the form of Gazprom) has tried for a number of years to buy
the Ukraine network from state-owned Beltranshaz, but Ukraine was not
willing to give up this bargaining chip that it has in negotiating its
own gas needs with Russia. The US also supported and pushed Ukraine
in its refusal to sell.

To get around Ukraine, Russia conceived of a pipeline project that
would also circumvent Poland and all the Baltic states, running along
the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Germany. It is implemented through a
consortium (with 51% Gazprom ownership) initially known as the North
European pipeline (NEGP) and recently officially re-named the Nord
Stream, after the operating company that runs it. It consists of
two parallel pipelines each carrying 27.5 bcf of gas annually. The
latest projected cost of this pipeline is about 15 billion euros
(US$22 billion).

As a result, this gas could be more expensive to deliver to
market. Russia argues this may not be the case because transit fees,
costs that can quickly escalate, are avoided. This pipeline is expected
to be on line in 2010/2011. Yet even this, it seems, is not enough
control for Russia.

Russia has wanted to control the gas and oil pipelines that transport
gas and oil from the Caspian countries to European markets –
specifically, Moscow wants their oil and gas to go through Russia
(as opposed to Georgia or for that matter any other country). Here,
the US sees a direct threat to its own financial interests and opposes
this expansion of Russian energy influence for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, there is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
(running from Azerbaijan, through Georgia to Turkey), which carries
about 1-1.2 mbd of crude oil; with plans to expand its capacity to
1.8 mbd, which now seems doubtful after the war with Georgia. The
US championed this project to circumvent a pipeline through Iran
(or through Russia) that oil companies wanted to build, if for no
other reason than the projected construction cost (seen as about 60%
that of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline).

Second, the US has invested heavily in the Shah Deniz gas field in
Azerbaijan (in the Caspian), with a pipeline that runs parallel to
the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline.

Third, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline transports about 6 bcm of
gas a year to Turkey and Greece; this could increase to 18 bcm per
year by 2012.

Russian control of the Georgia/Armenia/Azerbaijan network (Armenia is
supplied with gas from Iran), hooked up with Iran and Turkey, would
have significant consequences. Moscow could undermine the economic
viability of US investments in the Caspian region and control Europe’s
energy supplies.

In short, Russia is intensifying its efforts to connect key Caspian
producers to its existing and projected natural gas pipeline projects
with the goal of blocking the building of pipelines outside Russian
control that could take natural gas to Europe.

Thus Russia’s invasion of Georgia could be seen as an energy
play. Russian troops are now only a few miles away from the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines. Russia
can disrupt these oil and gas flows anytime it wants – and blame
it on terrorists. US investments in Caspian oil and gas development
and in the transportation network are in jeopardy. If nothing else,
Russia’s invasion of Georgia has reduced the appetite for financing
any new pipelines (or expansions) that go through Georgia. Russia
has enhanced its monopoly power.

Why has Europe not pursued other options? Why has the US pushed
pipelines through Georgia and through the Caspian seabed? The answer
is simple. Washington’s blind pursuit of sanctioning Iran has trumped
all other policy considerations. But US sanctions have not succeeded.

First and foremost, US sanctions have not changed Iran’s policies to
fit US demands; and Iran’s economic failures are largely the result
of its own policy shortfalls, not US sanctions.

Second, the only significant impact of US policies has been to retard
Iran’s oil and gas development, the development of oil and gas in the
Caspian region, and affording Russia stronger control over oil and gas
pipelines. All to the detriment of Europe and global energy supplies.

As far as Europe is concerned, it does not require an expensive
feasibility study from the likes of Bechtel to realize that Iran and
Qatar are the only possible long-term alternatives to near total
dependence on Russia, with Iran providing the best geography for
transporting its gas to Europe.

Iran lacks the funds to rapidly develop its oil and gas sectors,
and it has had reduced ability to attract foreign investors, in
part because of US sanctions. US firms and financial institutions,
some of the prime developers and financiers of oil and gas fields in
the world, have been sanctioned from participation in Iran; and most
prime European firms have been unwilling to invite US retaliation
by participating in Iran. The factors have reduced competition for
Iranian energy assets and have limited the appetite for investment
in its oil and gas sector.

Europe is today held hostage to gas from Russia, but it will eventually
have no choice but to develop and pipe Iranian gas. One indication
that this is being recognized came in March, when Switzerland signed a
$42 billion, 25-year gas deal for Iran to deliver, from 2010, 5.5 bcm
of gas per year to Europe via a pipeline under construction. (See
Energized Iran builds more bridges, Asia Times Online, May 6,
2008.) This is small potatoes compared with European dependence on
Russia, but it is a start.

India’s need for Iranian gas is another urgent matter, yet the
US maintains its pressure against pipeline development and fuel
delivery. These projects, and more, if already under development,
would have increased energy supplies (as oil and natural gas are
substitutes in a number of uses) and have added to global capacity,
calming markets.

The situation is similar for development of gas and oil from the
Caspian, where the littoral countries are Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan and Russia. The US has pressured the former Soviet
republics not to cooperate with Iran, although the most cost-effective
route for bringing Caspian oil to market. Washington has also vetoed
swaps of Iranian oil in the south of the country, where it can be
exported, for Caspian oil deliverable to Iran’s northern refineries.

Europe has blindly followed US policies, but it is Europe that will
have to pay the price for America’s folly. Europe has forgotten the
first lessons of microeconomics – encourage competition among your
suppliers. This surely is the best weapon against Russia.

As for the US, it should learn when it is time to change policies. Is
it tougher to confront Russia or Iran? The answer is evident. Moreover,
Iran has no nuclear arms and will accept a solution that makes its
attainment of nuclear arms difficult, if not impossible. But, as I have
said for over two years, Iran will not abandon its enrichment program.

There is a solution to the problem at hand – accept Iran’s right to
peaceful nuclear enrichment accompanied with the condition that Iran
will agree to a number of safeguards (including the most intrusive
inspections to date) to guarantee, as much as humanly possible, that
it will not develop nuclear warheads. A former senior US diplomat
has put forward a similar proposal, forming a consortium to implement
enrichment in Iran.

A comprehensive safeguard approach could serve as a model to enhance
the future of non-proliferation and is the only peaceful approach to
a resolution of the nuclear standoff with Iran.

Time is running out for Europe if it wants an alternative to a Russian
monopolist for securing its energy needs. It will take time to bring
additional Iranian gas on line and to build the needed pipeline system
for its delivery. It is high time for Europe to abandon the notion of
"secure" pipelines through Georgia and reliance on oil and gas from
Russia and a Russian network for its delivery.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN: "TURKEY WILL CONDUCT NEGOTIATIONS WITH ARMENIA"

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

Ankara – APA. "I will discuss with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
the recent developments in the region," Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan told journalists in Ataturk Airport, Ankara,
APA reports.

He said that the happenings in Georgia would be in the center of
attention.

"We will also discuss Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform,
which we view as the solution of the region’s problems. Situation in
Georgia showed that Caucasus needed permanent peace and stability. This
stability is in the interests of Turkey, too. During my visits to
Moscow and Tbilisi we told the sides that Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform was a platform that would lead to long-lasting
peace and stability in the region. Both sides said they could be
represented in such a format, so the sides approve the proposal. We
intend to create fundamentals of the format together with five
countries," he said.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said negotiations would also be conducted with
Armenia.

"Turkish Foreign Minister will meet with Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov this week. The date of our meeting with Armenia will
be known after this meeting," he said.

AZERBAIJAN’S STATE COMMISSION: GRANT GABRIELYAN WAS HANDED OVER TO THE ICRC REPRESENTATION, NOT TO THE OFFICIALS OF THE SO-CALLED REGIME

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Mahbuba Gasimbayli – APA. "The reports given to media outlets
by the ‘State Commission of the so-called Nagorno Karabakh Republic
about Gabrielyan Grant Samvelovich, who was detained in the territory
close to the positions of Azerbaijani servicemen on May 16 this year
and handed over on August 19, are not right," says the statement made
by the Working Group of the State Commission on Prisoners of War,
Hostages and Missing Persons, APA reports.

The statement says after Grant Gabrielyan was detained during the
talks for identifying him it was found out that he had a number of
health problems.

"At first he acted strange, he had difficulty in answering questions,
telling his home address and workplace. During all this time no
one concerned himself with him or appealed to the State Commission
on Prisoners of War, Hostages and Missing Persons. The so-called
commission remembered this only after the citizen was handed over. If
they were concerned over Grant Gabrielyan, they would have appealed
at least to the international organizations. But they did not do it,"
the statement says.

The Working Group of the State Commission said only the representatives
of ICRC office in Khankendi attended the handover procedure.

"Thus, Gabrielyan was handed over to the representation of the
International Committee of the Red Cross, not to the officials of
the so-called regime," the statement says.

INCORRECT INFORMATION, RELEASED BY ARMENIAN COMMUNICATION OPERATOR, CORRECTED: AZERBAIJANI GSM-OPERATOR AZERFON

Trend News Agency
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, Baku, 20 August / Trend Capital / Azerfon CJSC, a mobile
operator in Azerbaijan (trade mark Nar Mobile) succeeded to correct
the false information placed by Armenian operator on the internet
website for mobile operators –

The information about Azerfon and Armenian operator signed a roaming
deal, which was placed by Armenian operator in internet-website,
was removed after Azerfon sent a claim letter to GSMworld offices in
the United States and Britain.

Information is placed on the reference-
/roa_azaf.shtml

AZERFON was licensed by the Ministry of Communications and Information
Technolo gies of Azerbaijan Republic in December 2005 to provide
mobile services throu ghout the territory of Azerbaijan. AZERFON
Company launched its commercial activities on 21 March, 2007 under
brand name Nar Mobile.The trademark Nar was created as a symbol of
the relationship between Azerbaijan’s rich cultural herita ge and
modern life. At the present, more than 500.000 subscribers use the
network of Nar Mobile.

JUNIORS TO TEST THE WATERS BEFORE CRUCIAL GAME

Turkish Daily News
Aug 20 2008
Turkey

Two weeks before an eagerly anticipated football match between Armenia
and Turkey, the junior teams from the two countries with troubled
relations are set to take to the pitch tonight, in what some consider
a test of whether sports and politics can really be separated.

Turkey is set to play in Armenia in a World Cup qualifying round
game Sept. 6, which will be the first time that the two countries’
national football teams play at the highest level. Doubts were
expressed late last year when the two countries were drawn to play
each other, but politicians from both countries and national team
members gave assurances that the game would go ahead. Å~^enes Erzik
was one of the first names to play down the tension. A former chairman
of the Turkish Football Federation, and the vice president of European
football’s governing body, UEFA, Erzik drew attention to the fact that
both countries were already playing football against one another at
youth levels.

Mahmut Ozgener, who was elected as the new chairman of the federation
yesterday succeeding the late Hasan Dogan, agreed with Erzik, recalling
past occasions where no problems were experienced.

"Our U-19 team played a tournament in Armenia in May, and now the
U-21 team is heading there," said Ozgener. "Football is a global game,
you should go anywhere to play. So, we will go to Armenia to play."

The Armenia game on Sept. 6 will be Ozgener’s first important game
as the federation chairman, but he is not making a big deal of it.

"Just because our relations with Armenia are not good, it is not right
to talk about other things before a football game," said Ozgener. "The
tension may be high but at the end we are going there to play ball."

Armenian President Serj Sarkisyan also played his part to reduce
the pressure before the game, as he sent an invitation to Turkish
President Abdullah Gul in mid-July to watch the game together.

The Armenian press hailed the president’s invitation, calling it
an early goal, and saying Armenia took the first step, and now the
decision was up to Turkey. Gul has yet to issue a response, but it is
a near certain that the game will be a stage where Armenian-Turkish
relations will be tested, albeit on a smaller scale.

Meanwhile, the Turkish national team plays its last friendly fixture
before the Armenian game against Chile tonight in Kocaeli.

Coach Fatih Terim said Chile is a serious contender on the South
American stage.

"Chile is playing for the World Cup currently," said Terim. "It is now
ahead of Brazil in the qualifying group, which is something for us."

The game at the Kocaeli Ataturk Stadium kicks off at 9:00 p.m, while
the Armenia-Turkey U21 game starts at 7:00 p.m.

–Boundary_(ID_9cEnYplMBQ+lWoI2uTcZ4g)–

GEORGIA: PIPELINE ROUTES ON A POWDER KEG

ISN
m?ID=19324
Aug 20 2008
Switzerland

The crisis in Georgia came as a reminder of the vulnerability of
important Europe-bound energy supply routes and apparent western
inability to secure them.

Image: European CommunityBy Sergei Blagov in Moscow for ISN Security
Watch (19/08/08)

Even before the dust settled over the conflict in the breakaway region
of South Ossetia, hostilities between Russia and Georgia served to
cast doubts over the latter’s role as a major transit nation to funnel
oil and gas to Europe.

Crucial energy supply routes, notably the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline, cross Georgia having been designed to circumvent Russia:
Georgia had hoped to serve as a bridge to funnel oil and gas from
Azerbaijan and Central Asia, thus undermining Moscow’s energy clout.

Georgian officials repeatedly complained the country had become victim
to pipeline politics. President Mikhail Saakashvili reportedly claimed
that the BTC oil pipeline was a major reason for the Russian assault.

But Russian military officials have denied claims that Russian aircraft
targeted Georgia’s pipelines. "We do not strike oil pipelines as such
strikes could entail serious environmental repercussions," Russia’s
Deputy Chief of General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn announced.

The Russian military had no need to hit the pipelines indeed, because
a mere demonstration of force apparently was enough to put tremendous
psychological pressure on both suppliers and consumers. During
the conflict, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet patrolled Georgia’s coast,
apparently indicating that the task to transport crude oil from ports
to international markets could become a challenging objective.

Russian strikes did not hit any of the international oil and gas
pipelines or any oil ports in Georgia, but they apparently forced
Azerbaijan’s state-run oil company SOCAR and Kazakhstan’s state-run
oil giant KazMunaiGaz to consider re-routing crude oil previously
exported via Georgia.

Oil company BP declared force majeure on the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline,
which carries Caspian oil from Azerbaijan to the Black Sea, and shut
it down as a precautionary measure citing security concerns.

Subsequently, Russia increased oil exports from Azerbaijan amid
concerns about the Georgian crisis. Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly
Transneft announced it had doubled shipments of Azerbaijan’s crude
oil via the Baku-Novorossiisk oil pipeline through Russia from 83,000
tons a month up to 166,000 tons a month. Transneft also suggested
raising shipments of Azerbaijan’s crude up to 240,000 tons a month
in September.

Although volumes of Azerbaijan’s oil supplies through Russia
remained limited, the re-routing served to indicate that the
Caspian energy suppliers hardly had any viable choices in a time
of crisis but return to Russia’s sphere of influence. There have
been concerns that Georgia’s volatility may adversely affect the
Odessa-Brody-Gdansk-Polotsk oil pipeline, designed to funnel Caspian
crude via Ukraine to Poland.

The crisis also came as a reminder that alternative energy supply
routes from Azerbaijan and Central Asia via Georgia happened to
be extremely vulnerable during a crisis and needed better security
arrangements than the Georgian government was able to provide.

The US, preoccupied with operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and other
hotspots such as Iran and Pakistan, was understood to hardly have any
appetite for committing forces of its own to secure the pipelines. Its
European allies were also in no rush to consider dispatching their
forces to protect energy supply routes. Therefore, the crisis in
Georgia also served to demonstrate western guarantees for Georgia
lacked substance, while Russian involvement was still needed in order
to secure the pipelines.

It was hardly a coincidence that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan
traveled to Moscow and Tbilisi amid the height of the Georgian crisis,
apparently seeking security guarantees for Turkey-bound pipelines.

The conflict with Georgia was in no way a dicey game for Moscow as the
Kremlin appeared to remain unconcerned with the potential response
of the US or Europe. Western threats to block Russia’s bid to join
the World Trade Organization (WTO) or expel Russia from the G8 group
of industrial nations apparently have limited potential to influence
Moscow’s policymaking.

The Kremlin might have calculated that the Europeans needed Russian oil
and gas so desperately that they could tacitly accept destabilization
of Georgia. Simultaneously, any potential Russian countermeasures in
response to possible western sanctions, notably a review of Moscow’s
cooperation with the West on nuclear nonproliferation, could have
devastating repercussions for global security.

Furthermore, Russia’s allies made it clear that Georgia could be hit
with new outbursts of separatism. Hostilities in South Ossetia may
spark movements in other Georgian regions: Mengrelia, Kvemo-Kartli
and in areas populated by Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities, Sergei
Bagapsh, head of Russia-supported Abkhazia, announced in Moscow on
14 August.

Furthermore, any troubles between Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities
in Georgia could potentially re-ignite a dormant conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia over who controls the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh
region. Such an eventuality may put an end to any plans of sustainable
oil and gas supplies from Azerbaijan and Central Asia, circumventing
Russia.

Therefore, the latest warnings that the powder keg in the Caucasus
had blown up appear premature, as the volatile region appears to have
much more explosive potential. And now Russia is better positioned
to make its move in the Caucasus, an unlikely host region for stable
energy supply routes.

ARAZ ALIZADE: "AZERBAIJAN HAS ALL GROUNDS TO RELEASE ITS OCCUPIED LANDS FROM ARMENIA BY FORCE"

Today.Az
itics/47086.html
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

A number of local jingoist erroneously compare the situation with
Karabakh with separatist regimes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. These
are two different situations, said co-chair of the Social-Democratic
Party of Azerbaijan Araz Alizade.

According to him, there are no Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno
Karabakh, like it was in the case with South Ossetia.

"The world society regards Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan,
occupied by Armenia. This means that Azerbaijan has all grounds to
release its Armenian-occupied lands by force. Neither Russia, nor
Turkey, or Iran or the United States have a legal right to hamper
such actions of official Baku. Maximum, that Russia can do, is supply
Armenia with weapon. But there will not be Russian soldiers in the
area of Nagorno Karabakh conflict", said Araz Alizade.

MIRMAHMOOD MIRALIOGHLU: "THE ISSUE OF HOLDING A DIALOGUE BETWEEN AZERBAIJANI POWERS AND OPPOSITION IS ALWAYS URGENT"

Today.Az
litics/47085.html
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

"In current conditions the issue of holding a dialogue between
Azerbaijani powers and opposition", said Mirmahmood Miralioghlu.

He said the cooperation between the two powers is always necessary
for the resolution of national problems.

"If the powers want to arrange a dialogue, they can initiate it
anytime. Moreover, along with the Karabakh problem, there can also
be a sociopolitical situation in the country and problems between
opposition and powers.

The political situation in the country has changed so much that the
unknowns can even explode two grenades in the Abu Bekir mosque.

Powers and opposition should find common grounds", said Miralioghlu.

CHAIRMAN OF PACE SUB-COMMITTEE ON NAGORNO KARABAKH TO BE APPOINTED IN OCTOBER

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 20 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova-APA. "Appointment of the Chairman of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Sub-Committee on
Nagorno Karabakh is reviewed and decided by CE Bureau, Samad Seyidov,
head of Azerbaijani delegation to PACE told APA.

"Nomination of candidates, discussions and hearing the opinions of
Azerbaijani and Armenian delegations take long time", said Seyidov
and added that the chairman of PACE Sub-Committee would be appointed
at the PACE session in October.

British parliamentarian Lord Russell Johnston, who has chaired the
Sub-Committee since its establishing in January 2005, died last month.

TURKISH PRESIDENT FACES A DILEMMA IN ACCEPTING ARMENIA’S INVITATION

Hurriyet
Aug 20 2008
Turkey

Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul faces a tough decision on whether to
accept Armenia’s invitation to watch a football game between the two
countries’ national teams in Yerevan. Gul is yet to make a decision,
however his closest aides and the foreign ministry has divided over
the issue.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has invited Gul to watch a football
match between the two counties’ national teams on Sep. 6 to mark
"a new symbolic start in the two countries’ relations".

Some of Gul’s closest aides and advisors think he should accept the
invitation and pay a visit to Yerevan, while some others think he
should not. The other option before Gul is sending a lower level
official instead of the president, while some others insist no one
should go to the neighboring country.

Supporters of the acceptance of the invitation say such a visit by a
Turkish president would send the world a message that Turkey favors
compromise and dialogue.

The other camp, however, is concerned the Armenian diaspora could
use this visit to promote its claims of so-called "Armenian genocide"
instead of using this as a window of opportunity. Also it is feared
that a protest of Gul by Armenian people at the match could worsen
the relations.

Still Gul is expected to make his decision on the issue at the 11th
hour due to the busy diplomacy calendar that Turkey faces. The dilemma
that the Turkish president faces is a strong signal that the lack
of confidence between the two sides emerges as one of the biggest
challenges in the process to normalize relations.

Turkey is among the first countries that recognized Armenia when it
declared its independency. However there is no diplomatic relations
between two countries, as Armenia presses the international community
to admit the so-called "genocide" claims instead of accepting Turkey’s
call to investigate the allegations, and its invasion of 20 percent
of Azerbaijani territory despite U.N. Security Council resolutions
on the issue.

A warming period had started between two neighboring countries after
the presidents exchanged letters after Sargsyan’s election victory.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress