Month: August 2008

IN THE JAWS OF THE BEAR
by Mindy Belz

World Magazine

Au g 29 2008
NC

Georgia: With a weak allied response, Russia extends its reach
into Georgia

As Russia continued to escalate the conflict with the West over
its invasion of Georgia, words seemed to fail. "Russia recognizes
breakaway Georgia regions" is how most wire services headlined the
Aug. 26 vote by Russia’s parliament to, in effect, begin a process
of annexation of the pro-Russia regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
in Georgia. The Associated Press called them "rebel regions."

By unilaterally declaring independence for two regions within another
country’s borders, the Russian government began yet another advance: to
negotiate a separate peace with these areas and to continue supplying
them while Georgia proper faces $1 billion in damages from Russia’s
five-day invasion and a Russian blockade on aid. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice called Moscow’s decision to claim independence for
the two enclaves "extremely unfortunate." Later she said Moscow’s
actions were "regrettable."

Western leaders are at a loss for words to deal with what is arguably
a crisis nearly a month after Russia’s surprise invasion of Georgia
and over a week after Moscow failed to comply with terms of withdrawal
contained in a signed ceasefire agreement. Instead, in a page from
the satirical Onion–which famously reported, "in other news . . . an
earthquake wiped out much of Etchasketchistan"–the West seems resigned
to see Moscow erase parts of Georgia’s borders. Russian occupation
of Georgia’s Black Sea port at Poti forced U.S. naval vessels loaded
with humanitarian supplies twice, on Aug. 24 and Aug. 27, to dock
south of war-damaged areas at Batumi.

And Russia’s August march into Georgia now seems more premeditated
than ever: Its forces quickly subdued Georgian units in South Ossetia
and it launched a three-day aerial assault on Kodori Gorge, giving
Abkhaz troops an opportunity to seize the agriculture-rich region that
is the gateway to Abkhazia. Along the way Russian forces managed to
hamper or shut down Georgia’s oil and gas pipelines.

Summarizing the helplessness many feel in Eastern Europe and among
the former Soviet satellites, an editorial in a Latvian newspaper
concluded: "Russia took what it could take."

Experts on the region, however, point out that the start of Russian
designs in Georgia extend well back of its Aug. 8 invasion. Georgia
is the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, and the Communist leader long
ago redrafted Georgian borders and forcibly mixed the area ethnically
as part of his plan to make a new nation of "Soviets." Abkhazia, in
fact, is now majority Armenian run by a small minority of pro-Moscow
Abkhazians. South Ossetia, meanwhile, is at least one-fourth Georgian
(and many human-rights groups remain unsure of their present status
after Russia’s military blocked the region last month from monitors
and journalists).

In 1991-93, with Georgia asserting its independence from the
disintegrating Soviet Union, Moscow officials showed up in Abkhazia and
South Ossetia to dispense Russian passports, according to Yuri Maltsev,
economics professor at Wisconsin’s Carthage College and a leading
researcher at the Academy of Sciences in Moscow before he defected in
1989. "They carried Polaroid cameras to make issuing passports easy,"
he said. That was the first step to sowing seeds of strife within
Georgia. Later the UN also upped the tension by giving to Russia a
mandate of providing peacekeepers to the–not surprisingly–restive
provinces. "That is the same as giving a goat a mandate to protect
a cabbage," said Maltsev. Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has used
that mandate to keep "peacekeeping" troops on the ground in Georgia
beyond an Aug. 16 truce.

What’s next? Maltsev says Abkhazia and South Ossetia will now apply
for membership in the Russian Federation. With Russian troops in
control of both areas, it could remain difficult if not impossible
for outsiders to assess the fate of residents in the two regions who
lack Russian citizenship or other ties to Moscow.

And faith-based groups in the region are feeling pressure to keep
quiet also. Wheaton-based Russian Ministries has worked among Ossetian
churches, but spokesman Jean Zatulovsky told WORLD last week: "Because
of the sensitivity of the situation we are unable to give information
about the situation or our work there."

Western leaders are similarly hamstrung. "All of the West has been
so busy post-9/11 with how to address asymmetrical warfare. Suddenly
we are faced with a conventional threat and our capacity to meet
it has suffered," said Sally McNamara, senior policy analyst at the
Heritage Foundation.

"What you are seeing is a huge divergence between Old Europe and New
Europe," said McNamara. Central and Eastern European countries of
New Europe "see the real threat" of Russian aggression, she said,
but Western European nations, with backing from the United States,
put intervention off the table weeks ago. Both U.S. Defense Secretary
Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, with Russian
troops still occupying Georgian cities, ruled out military action in
mid-August. Said McNamara: "One thing that has become very clear is
that countries like Russia are willing to engage in something very
old-fashioned–military confrontation–and European military capacity
is degraded to the point it cannot respond."

Key dates in the Georgia-Russia crisis Aug. 7: Georgia launches an
offensive to seize control of South Ossetia, a province that broke
from Georgia in the early 1990s.

Aug. 8: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili says most of South
Ossetia has been "liberated." Russia sends tanks and troops, promising
to defend its peacekeeping troops and residents with Russian passports.

Aug. 9: Russian warplanes bomb targets in Georgia including the Black
Sea port of Poti. This is followed by aerial assaults on the city
of Gori and near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. Russia
also launched a three-day air attack on Kodori Gorge, linking the
territory of Abkhazia to Georgia.

Aug. 10: After claiming control of most of South Ossetia, Russia
starts bombing areas near the Georgian capital Tbilisi for the first
time, targeting a military airfield. Georgia admits losing the South
Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali.

WEST CAN PROMPT AZERBAIJAN TO SOLVE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT BY FORCE: RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT

Trend News Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Russia, Moscow, 29 August /corr. Trend News R.Agayev / There are
threats that the West fully may push the leadership of Azerbaijan to
forcibly settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, said the Director of
the Globalization Problems Institute, Mikhail Delyagin.

According to him, in the present stage the ratio of forces in the
zone of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has strongly changed. "West’s
encouraging Azerbaijan to war will be not the achievement of military
success, but exactly that Russia, traditionally sympathized with the
Armenians, expressed its sympathy, finally quarreled with Azerbaijan
and thus lost any influence on it, as it lost in Georgia," Delyagin
said at the briefing of politicians in Moscow "Russia-Georgia- USA:
war for the resources?".

According to him, the energy component was and is the main reason
for the war of Russia with Georgia. Delyagin considers that Mikhail
Saakashvili had solid guarantees at the high political level in the
political and information support, which obtained unconditionally. But,
in the opinion politician, some people, overstepping their authorities,
gave it other guarantees of military support and non-intervention of
Russia in this process.

Delyagin noted that the reason for this unconditional support to
Georgia in the world is not Russophobia, but clear strategic task
and concrete interest that the gas of Central Asia would go to
Europe by-passing Russia. In particular, this can be realized due to
construction of gas pipeline Nabucco, and also Trans-Caspian pipeline,
which beyond Russia, can go only via the territory of Azerbaijan and
Georgia. "The West imposed task to minimize the influence Russian
Federation on these two countries, i.e. Russia never could have
influence, even theoretically, on these countries," he said.

The politician considers that due to the reasonable position of
the Government of Azerbaijan, which demonstrated in the conflict
of Russia with Georgia, the importance of Azerbaijan undoubtedly
strengthened. In Delyagin’s opinion, experiment with the distribution
of the Russian passports to the inhabitants of unrecognized formations
will never be repeated due to internal political reasons. In addition,
Russia does not have such people, who would live in the territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh and would be divided as Ossetians. Therefore,
it is not worthwhile to fear this.

"Azerbaijani leadership has always taken balanced and reasonable policy
in the hardest times of our relations, but now the wounds bleed less
than they bled then. And if Azerbaijan does not fall under influence of
provocations of developed countries, which will be carried out in its
relations after some time, everything will be good," he said and added
that Russia can not take active position in the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict as it has close ties with both parties.

According to Delyagin, if Russia acted in a right way toward Georgia,
then it would be necessary not only to catch those guilty for genocide,
but also to submit them to the International Court, but also to assess
the actions of Georgia as a display of international terrorism and
to try to destroy Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as an instrument of
financing of international terrorism.

According to expert, there are discussions going on in West on how to
achieve international isolation of Russia, but West will not be able to
punish Russia as it desires. "In any case Russia should forget about
South Stream project and North Stream project would be better to be
frozen for several years. It is not so bad, as we should think how to
meet out own demands under such dynamics of gas production," he added.

The expert said that the inefficiency of West’s intentions is that it
will lead to the isolation of Europe itself. "Besides, one should not
expect record oil prices as the price of ‘black gold’ will increase
gradually and can total to not more than $125 a barrel in autumn. The
oil output in Russia dropped by 1.5% a month as a result of July
but gas output increases as much as this amount due to the internal
reserves," Delyagin said.

According to political expert, the world becomes bipolar, but not in
the scheme of US-Russia, but that of US-China as in this situation US
fulfils the role that SSSR played once. "China gradually takes a lead
not only in Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but also in Central Asia
and Russia in this case can take balance of powers as after some time
even nuclear potential of Russia will not be taken into consideration,"
Mikhail Delyagin, director of Globalization Problems Institute said.

VICE SPEAKER OF ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT: "RUSSIA’S EXCLUSION FROM THE OSCE MINSK GROUP ON NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT IS NOT PROFITABLE FOR ARMENIA"

Today.Az
olitics/47287.html
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

"Russia’s exclusion from the OSCE Minsk Group on Nagorno Karabakh
conflict is not profitable for Armenia", considers vice speaker of
the Armenian National Assembly Grair Karapetyan.

He said Nagorno Karabakh problem depends of the works to be carried
out in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, further development of
the negotiation process and Russia’s co-chairing in the Minsk Group.

"If it becomes clear that the capacities of the Minsk Group have
been exhausted in the negotiation process and the talks have hit the
deadlock due to the relations between the West and Russia it would
become a serious ground for concerns", he told reporters on Friday.

At the same time, the vice speaker of the Armenian parliament considers
that Russia’s possible replacement with another country within the
Minsk Group is not profitable for Armenia.

"There are no signs of Russia’s exclusion from the OSCE Minsk Group,
but as regards the EU sanctions against Russia, they can be not only
economic but also political, which may result in cessation of Russia’s
participation in such processes", noted he.

Karapetyan considers that sooner or later, the whole world will follow
the way of recognition of the national right for self-determination.

VICE-SPEAKER OF ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT: RUSSIA’S REMOVAL FROM OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRMANSHIP IS NOT TO OUR ADVANTAGE

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Yerevan – APA. "Russia’s removal from OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship
is not to the advantage of Armenia," vice-speaker of Armenian
parliament Hrayr Karapetyan said, APA reports. He said that the fate
of Nagorno Karabakh conflict depended on the work done within the
format of OSCE Minsk Group, development of negotiations, continuation
of Russia’s representation in this format.

"If it turns out that the potential of Minsk Group in the process
of dialogue exhausted and the negotiations reached a deadlock as a
result of tense relations between Russia and West, then it may cause
serious anxiety," he said.

Vice-speaker said replacement of Russia by another state in the
co-chairmanship was not to the advantage of Armenia.

"There is no sign on Russia’s removal from OSCE Minsk Group. But if the
question is the sanctions of the European Union, these sanctions may
be not only be economic, but also political. Russia’s participation in
the process of settlement of the conflicts may be frozen as a result
of these sanctions," he said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERBAIJANI COMMUNISTS SUPPORT RUSSIA’S POSITION ON SOUTH OSSETIAN AND ABKHAZIAN ISSUE

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Ramil Mammadli -APA. Azerbaijan’s pro-communist parties support
the Russia’s position on the South Ossetian and Abkhazian issue. First
secretary of the Central Committee of Azerbaijan Communist Party
(Marxism-Leninism platform) Telman Nurullayev told APA that South
Ossetia and Abkhazia never were subjects of Georgian state. "During
the Soviet time Stalin united Ossetia’s southern part and Abkhazia
to Georgia.

After the collapse of USSR both regions refused to be parts of
Georgia", said Nurullayev.

He said this issue was not similar with Nagorno Karabakh conflict. "We
are against nay aggression. I don’t welcome Russia’s bourgeois
diplomacy, but Georgia had not to solve this problem by invasion. We
accept the Russia’s action as an intention to defend South Ossetian
and Abkhazian peoples".

Chairman of Azerbaijan Communist Party Alasgar Khalilov said he
positively reacted to the Russia’s recognition of South Ossetian and
Abkhazian independence. "Georgia committed slaughter in South Ossetia
and Russia prevented it. Georgians and those peoples have different
statehood history".

Chairman of Azerbaijan United Communist Party Musa Tukanov accused the
United States for the last developments. "The United States and Western
countries created new order in the world by recognizing Kosovo. Russia
is an imperialistic country, but the West is responsible for what
happened. Georgia first started military operations. What’s it,
we condemned massacre in Azerbaijan during USSR time committed
by the Soviet Army, but we didn’t condemn Georgian invasion
to South Ossetia. I don’t accept it. Georgia was wrong to start
military operations in South Ossetia. Mikhail Saakashvili played the
baby. Russia sent troops for prevention of slaughter. If Russia didn’t
support South Ossetia, it would lose respect in the world".

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ELMAR MAMMADYAROV: ABDULLAH GUL WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO VISIT YEREVAN OR NOT

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Ankara – APA. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov is
visiting Turkey. APA reports quoting Anadolu Agency that briefing the
journalists at the airport Elmar Mammadyarov said he would discuss
Turkey’s initiative on establishing Caucasus Stability Pact with his
Turkish counterpart Ali Babacan.

While answering the question about Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian’s
inviting his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul to watch Turkey-Armenia
match, Elmar Mammadyarov said: "I am not president, I am Foreign
Minister. Abdullah Gul will decide whether to visit Yerevan or not."

Mammadyarov said Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline works as before and
clarified the issue on Gazprom’s intention to buy gas from Azerbaijan.

"We have not answered Russians’ offer. Talks with Gazprom leadership
and Turkish Minister for Energy and Natural Resources Hilmi Guler
continue. This is an issue of trade and income," he said.

Elmar Mammadyarov will meet Ali Babacan, President Abdullah Gul
and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan within the framework of his
one-day visit.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

MOLDOVA OPPOSES INDEPENDENCE FOR GEORGIAN REGIONS

PR-Inside.com (Pressemitteilung)
Aug 29 2008
Austria

CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) – Moldovan authorities said Friday that other
nations should not follow Russia’s lead in recognizing the independence
of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"The Moldovan government does not consider that the international
recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia will bring stability to
the situation" in the Caucasus region, Moldova’s government said in
a statement.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has recognized the independence of
the two separatist regions after Moscow’s brief war with Georgia over
South Ossetia, drawing criticism from the West.

Moldova’s government said it rejects any comparison between
the situation in Georgia and the Moldovan separatist region of
Trans-Dniester.

Trans-Dniester broke away from Moldova in 1990. It is not recognized
internationally, but it is supported by Russia. Russia has 1,500 troops
stationed there to guard large weapons storage facilities left over
from the former Soviet military.

On Tuesday, Russia’s ambassador to Moldova, Valeri Kuzmin, warned
Moldova’s leaders to avoid a "bloody and catastrophic trend of events"
in Trans-Dniester. But Kuzmin acknowledged that the situation in
Moldova was different from the Caucasus.

That area includes Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, southern parts of
Russia and the disputed territories of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and
Nagorno-Karabakh. Moldova is on the other side of the Black sea from
the Caucasus.

AZERBAIJAN PRESIDENT DEMONSTRATES HIGHEST POLITICAL MATURITY IN RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT: RUSSIAN POLITICIAN

TREND News Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Russia, Moscow, 29 August / Trend News corr. R.Agayev / The Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev showed the highest political maturity in
the issue of the Russian-Georgian conflict and was not drawn into
the anti-Russian company urgently initiated by the West, Mikhail
Alexandrov, the head of the Caucasus Institute Department of the CIS
countries, said. "Thus, Azerbaijan’s position was positive and even
demonstrative in definite sense," Alexandrov said at discussions on
Russia- Georgia- United States: War for resources? held in Moscow.

According to him, exactly due to such position of the Azerbaijani
leadership, the importance of Azerbaijan for Russia further
grew. Alexandrov considers that due to the recent events in Georgia,
military rhetoric in Azerbaijan reduced and it deals with the
re-consideration of the real situation in Caucasus.

The politician says that Russia is prepared to further continue
co-operation with Azerbaijan in all spheres if Azerbaijan will
be continuing friendly policy, not being drawn in anti-Russian
geo-political combination which currently the West tries to realize
in Caucasus.

According to him, in the long-term plan this will go only in favor
of Azerbaijan because the global economic crisis, which now untwists
in the West, sooner or later will lead to the collapse of the Western
economies, the collapse of NATO and complete reformation of the world
space, including in Caucasus. "And when Russia will already play
basic role there, then it will compulsorily consider that positive
attitude of Azerbaijan, which exists," he said.

In the opinion of Aleksandrov, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be
settled in such a way that even if Nagorno-Karabakh will remain as
part of Armenia, then seven regions around it will be compulsorily
returned to Azerbaijan and, most likely, Azerbaijan will obtain
territorial compensation elsewhere.

Speaking about the significance of Russia’s energy wars with Georgia,
the politician said that the energy reason for conflict was peripheral
because there were much more serious reasons here. In his opinion, the
strategy of the West began to be realized in Caucasus, especially in
Georgia, more clearly after Mikhail Saakashvili came to power in 2004
because the West attempted to finally crush Russia as an independent
state. "The plan of the West was such: collapse of Russia, beginning
firstly from the North Caucasus; adoption of Georgia and Azerbaijan
to NATO; collapse of Collective Security Treaty Organization and
support of separatism in the territory of Russia," said Aleksandrov

According to the politician, Russia did not bring its matter in the
conflict with Georgia to the end. He believes that it was necessary
to reach Tbilisi, to arrest Saakashvili and judge him in Vladikavkaz,
to organize the new elections in Georgia of which President welcomes
Russia, make Georgia a federal or confederative device with wide
authorities for all autonomies, including of Ajari, Javaheti populated
by the Armenians, Kvemo-Kartli populated by the Azerbaijanis, etc.

Speaking about the possible sanctions against Russia, the politician
noted that now the West is no longer the leader of the world policy
because there is powerful China, but nuclear parity remains with
Russia. According to him, in response to the possible sanctions of
the West, Russia should intentionally reduce oil production in order
to cause its cost-increase in the world markets, and then to extract
maximum benefit from the prevailing situation.

AZERBAIJAN NOT INTERFERES INTO TURKEY’S AFFAIRS: AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTER

TREND News Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Turkey, Ankara, 29 August / Trend News corr. T.Aliyev / Official Baku
considers that Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Armenia to
participate in a football match is Turkey’s interior affair.

"This is the matter of Turkey and we are not going to interfere
into it," Elmar Mammadyarov, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, told
journalists when he arrived in Ankara.

Earlier the Armenian President Serzh Sarkisyan invited Gul to the match
between the Turkish and Armenian National football teams to be held in
Yerevan on 6 September. Communities of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia
attentively follow whether Gul will accept the Armenian President’s
invitation, with whom Turkey does not have diplomatic relations.

Armenia and Turkey do not have diplomatic relations and the Armenian
and Turkish border has been closed since 1993. Ankara urges Armenia to
refuse from policy of the international recognition of the Armenian
genocide in Ottoman Empire, to recognize borders of Turkey, as well
as to free occupied territories of Azerbaijan in order to establish
bilateral relations.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Minister arrived in Ankara with one-day visit
to discuss situation in Caucasus after developments in Georgia, as
well as issues on Caucasus stability and co-operation platform with
the Turkish leadership. The Turkish Premier Rejeb Tayyib Erdogan
initiated this platform.

NONE AZERBAIJANIS TO DEMAND AUTONOMY IN GEORGIA: DIASPORA ORGANIZATION CHAIRMAN

TREND News Agency
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, Baku, 29 August / Trend News corr. J.Babayeva /Alibala
Askarov, Chairman of Azerbaijanis Geyrat popular movement, considers
the information of Georgian Azerbaijanis demand autonomy in Georgia
groundless and provocative.

"Georgian Azerbaijanis never demand for autonomy in Georgia. Sucu
information is spread by non-official source and is provocative,"
Askarov told Trend News via a telephone from Tbilisi.

Media released the information that some national minorities, which
reside in Georgia, use the territorial issue after recognition of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia.

On 26 August, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, issued a decree to
recognize the independence of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The council of Armenian public organizations Samtskhe-Javakheti and
Kvemo Kartli made a statement to provide Samtskhe-Javakheti and other
territories populated with Armenians self-governing status.

According to Askarov, the information that Georgian Armenians demand
autonomy may turn out to be right. "So far, such statements have not
been made. Naturally, Armenians want to take advantage of the current
situation for their own purpose," Askarov said.

The situation in Georgia is still strained and concerns Azerbaijanis in
Georgia. "Azerbaijanis and other national minorities suffer as a result
of the clash of interests of the two great powers," Askarov said.

According to non-official data, some 500,000 Azerbaijanis live in
the Kvemo-Kartli region.

Under the statistics, about 70% populations in Georgia are Georgians,
as well as 380,000 -Armenians, 350,000 – Azerbaijanis, 207,000
-Russians, 150,000- Ossetin, 100,000 -Abkhaz, 80,000- Greeks, Kurds,
Udin, Avar and others.