Fresh clashes feared in Armenia crisis
By Isabel Gorst and Stefan Wagstyl
Published: March 7 2008 01:03 | Last updated: March 7 2008 01:03
A few days after its worst political violence for nearly a decade, the
mountainous country of Armenia remains in crisis, with a state of emergency
in force, the army on the streets and the two main rivals in last month’s
disputed presidential election in deadlock.
Serzh Sarksyan, the prime minister who claimed victory, faces a challenge
>From Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the opposition leader and, in the 1990s,
independent Armenia’s first president.
Mr Sarksyan, groomed for power by Robert Kocharyan, the outgoing president,
is backed by most of the security and government apparatus; Mr Ter-Petrosyan
is under house arrest and his supporters are nursing their wounds following
demonstrations in Yerevan, the capital, last weekend in which eight died and
131 were injured.
Fears of renewed clashes are compounded by renewed tensions with
neighbouring Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh – a disputed ethnic Armenian
territory belonging to Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia in a war in the early
1990s. Sixteen soldiers were killed on Tuesday in the worst fighting in
years.
Lying in the Caucasus, Armenia is located in a troubled region riddled with
ethnic conflicts. Key export pipelines carrying Caspian oil and gas do not
cross Armenia but do pass nearby. Matt Bryza, the US assistant secretary of
state, and Peter Semneby, the European Union’s special envoy, both visited
Yerevan this week to urge restraint. Russia, which has a powerful presence
in Armenia, has warned against "destabilisation".
Mr Ter-Petrosyan hopes to follow Mikheil Saakashvili and Viktor Yushchenko,
the Georgian and Ukrainian opposition leaders who successfully exploited
popular anger to secure power in the Rose and Orange revolutions. But his
chances seem slim. He is backed by voters who feel excluded from the
sustained economic growth that has averaged above 12 per cent annually since
2000.
The expansion has been fuelled by a construction boom driven by migrant
workers’ remittances and investments from Armenia’s wealthy diaspora,
including an influential American element. A powerful elite has enriched
itself in Yerevan, not least from privatisation, leaving many poorer
Armenians discontented.
In a clannish country, there is also some resentment at the dominant role of
Karabakh-born politicians, including both Mr Kocharyan and Mr Sarksyan. Mr
Ter-Petrosyan, whose return to politics surprised his rivals, drew big
crowds to rallies. However, his democratic credentials are tarnished by his
record in power, including a decision to deploy tanks to suppress protests
after a disputed victory in the 1996 presidential election.
Last month’s poll, in which he scored 20 per cent against Mr Sarksyan’s 53
per cent, was described by Organisation for Security and Co-operation in
Europe observers as "mostly in line with international standards". The OSCE
is currently preparing a harsher report, but the initial verdict has
hindered Mr Ter-Petrosyan’s demands for a rerun.
Also, while Mr Yushchenko and Mr Saakashvili secured strong western backing,
external support for Mr Ter-Petrosyan is weak. Criticism of the violence
>From the west has been tempered by calls for both the government and
opposition to negotiate a truce. "The US deplores the violence," Mr Bryza
said. "But there is still time and space to restore democratic momentum."
Meanwhile, Russia, which has a military base and big investments in Armenia,
has endorsed the crackdown. "Russia has no interest in seeing
destabilisation or a coloured revolution in its main ally in the South
Caucasus," Konstantin Zatulin, a senior Russian Duma member, said.
Russia and the west alike are worried that extended instability could
escalate tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh. Ilham Aliev, the president of
Azerbaijan, indulged in some well-timed sabre-rattling this week, saying:
"For the time being we will continue peaceful negotiations. We still have a
certain amount of hope, but at the same time we are building up our military
power."
The political situation in Yerevan is evolving. Mr Ter-Petrosyan pledges to
continue fighting for new elections, describing the administration as a
"bandito-cracy". Hratch Tchilingirian, a director at Eurasia House, the
London-based research group, says the demonstrations could transform the
former president into a "national hero".
However, the establishment is largely loyal to Mr Sarksyan. If that remains
the case, the president-elect will be under little pressure to make more
than a token effort at talking to Mr Ter-Petrosyan.
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
