Tehran Times, Iran
Nov 20 2004
Iran surrounded by countries with ‘high-risk terrorism’: Report
LONDON (IRNA) — Iran is completely surrounded by neighboring
countries with far higher security problems than itself, according to
the latest annual report by the UK-based Control Risks Group. Its
RiskMap for 2005 identifies Iraq as an ‘Extreme Security Risk,’ saying
that insecurity had reached “unprecedented levels towards the end of
2004 and looks set to continue.” Iran was classed as a ‘Low Security
Risk,’ but Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and the bordering areas of
Armenia and Azerbaijan were rated as ‘High Security Risk.’ Other
neighboring countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman Qatar, Russia,
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as well as the remainder of
Armenia and Azerbaijan were identified as a ‘Medium Security Risk.’
Control Risks specializes in forecasting opportunities and trouble
spots for businesses, working with more than 5,300 clients in over 130
countries.
Its definition of Extreme Security Risk is where the severity of
security risks to assets or personnel is likely to make business
operations untenable.
The high level is when there is a probability that foreign companies
will face security problems and requires special measures as state
protection is very limited.
Medium risk is for countries where there is a reasonable possibility
of security problems affecting companies as against low risk, when
assets are deemed to be secure and authorities provide adequate
protection.
In judging Iran, Control Risks suggested that the country’s nuclear
program would continue to dominate international relations in 2005.
It also believed that effective UN sanctions remained unlikely, but
said that this “may force the US or Israel to take decisive action,
possibly involving air strikes against nuclear sites. It ruled out any
full-scale military action, saying this was “not in prospect.”

Azeri-NATO cooperation shrouded in secrecy – Azeri pundit
BBC Monitoring Caucasus
19 November 2004
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow, in Russian 16 Nov 04 pp 1,5
Military cooperation between Azerbaijan and NATO long ago transcended
the bounds of cooperation within the Partnership for Peace programme,
but is shrouded in secrecy, according to an Azeri military
expert. Uzeyir Cafarov said that preparation was under way for a
programme to train the Azeri military, similar to Georgia’s Train and
Equip programme, which would begin in 2005. He said that there were
already “several dozen” US servicemen in Azerbaijan. One Azeri Defence
Ministry spokesman confirmed that NATO servicemen were conducting
training courses in Azerbaijan under Partnership for Peace, while the
ministry’s main spokesman denied it, according to a report in Russian
newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The following is the text of Rauf
Mirqadirov’s report in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 16 November headlined
“American soldiers have landed in Azerbaijan. The republic’s Defence
Ministry is doing all it can to conceal this fact”; subheadings
inserted editorially:
Baku – One Azerbaijani socio-political newspaper reported a few days
ago that more than 50 NATO servicemen, mainly Americans, are stationed
at the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry’s instruction and training centre
in the settlement of Cuxanli, Salyan District. According to the
newspaper report, starting next year the Americans intend to begin
implementing a programme in Azerbaijan analogous to Georgia’s Train
and Equip programme.
Contradictory comment from Defence Ministry on role of US instructors
In conversation with journalists Ilqar Verdiyev, an employee of the
Azerbaijani Defence Ministry press office, confirmed this report,
stating, however, that foreign servicemen come to Azerbaijan only to
participate in specific projects for the implementation of the NATO
Partnership for Peace programme. He said that various courses are
continually being held at the Cuxanli instruction and training centre
under the auspices of this programme. “They are courses in teaching
foreign languages, in inculcating NATO terminology and in organizing
peace activities,” Verdiyev stated.
However, Azerbaijani Defence Ministry press office chief Ramiz Malikov
categorically denied this report, stating that he has no information
on the training of Azerbaijanis by American instructors.
Officials do not rule out US military presence
At the same time, Deputy Alimammad Nuriyev, a member of the
parliamentary defence and security standing commission, indirectly
confirmed rumours about the arrival of the US servicemen: “There is
nothing surprising about our soldiers being trained by Americans. It
is no secret that, following the start of combat operations in
Afghanistan and Iran, the Americans have been making active use of our
military airfields for transit purposes. Simply, we are not in the
habit of talking about it.”
Araz Azimov, Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister, does not rule out,
either, the possibility that American mobile forces have arrived in
the country. “Azerbaijan does not rule out future participation in the
alliance’s rapid-response operations, since new challenges demand a
flexible and swift reaction. In the context of globalization the
development of any crisis demands a prompt reaction,” Azimov said.
Secrecy surrounds Azeri-NATO cooperation
Azerbaijani analysts have focused attention on the phrase “any
crisis”. Uzeyir Cafarov, an independent military expert and former
high-ranking Defence Ministry employee, thinks that cooperation
between Baku and NATO transcended the bounds of the Partnership for
Peace programme long ago. In conversation with your Nezavisimaya
Gazeta correspondent he emphasized the secrecy surrounding information
about cooperation: “Both the Defence Ministry and NATO representatives
try not to speak too openly on this matter.” The expert reminded me
that NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated in Baku
recently that Azerbaijan has already been given its
“homework”. Cafarov said that active preparations are now under way to
implement a programme similar to Georgia’s Train and Equip programme,
which will most probably be “launched” officially in 2005. It may
involve utilizing the “military training ground in Qara Heybat,
situated not far from Baku, where NATO exercises were to have been
staged recently but were called off, as well as the instruction and
training centre in the settlement of Cuxanli in Salyan District. They
fully meet the standards of the North Atlantic bloc.” Cafarov claims
that there are already several dozen American servicemen in the
country.
USA may want to use Azerbaijan to launch strikes on Iran
In recent days practically all the independent Azerbaijani newspapers
have been actively discussing reports in the foreign news media to the
effect that Washington and Baku are holding active consultations on
using the territory of Azerbaijan for the purpose of launching a
strike against Iran. Some media, referring to military sources, are
even publishing various plans of future military operations.
Azar Rasidoglu, an expert at the East-West political research centre,
told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that it may be supposed even now that the
European Union will almost unanimously oppose an anti-Iranian military
operation. Besides, Azerbaijan would irrevocably spoil its relations
with its closest partner in the region – Turkey. “Turkey, no less than
Europe, depends on deliveries of energy sources from Iran. In
addition, Ankara has no interest in seeing the birth of yet another
active hotbed of Kurdish armed separatism alongside its own borders,”
the political analyst told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
As a land-based launch pad for its intervention operations, Washington
could also, theoretically, use the territory of Armenia, Syria, Iraq,
Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Armenia and Syria may immediately be
scratched from this list. Also, neither Iraq nor Afghanistan, on whose
territories guerrilla warfare is taking place, provide a reliable
logistical base.
Azerbaijani military experts are coming to the conclusion that the
United States may regard only the territory of Azerbaijan as a
reliable launch pad for its intervention into Iran. For example,
independent military expert Casur Mammadov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta:
“What is also noticeable is the list of military facilities at which,
according to media reports, the Americans already are, or will be,
deployed. They are primarily the settlements of Cuxanli and Nasosni,
not far from Baku. Both are located close to military airfields which
have very recently been upgraded, and they are practically ready for
launching air strikes against Iran. Apart from this, reports appeared
very recently to the effect that the Americans are about to deploy
TRML-3D mobile air defence radar stations in Azerbaijan. It is
reasonable to suppose that, in the event of strikes against Iran, it
is unlikely that the Americans can count on receiving essential
information from Russia’s Qabala radar station,” the expert believes.
Mammadov stressed, moreover, that the military base in the settlement
of Cuxanli has access to the Caspian Sea. And the Americans have
already set about upgrading Azerbaijan’s naval forces. In the expert’s
opinion, the military base at Cuxanli is very conveniently located,
from a military operations viewpoint. “From that base to the Iranian
border is just a stone’s throw,” Mammadov remarked.

ArmenPress
Nov 19 2004
UMCOR CELEBRATES 10-TH ANNIVERSARY OF ACTIVITIES IN ARMENIA
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 19, ARMENPRESS: The United Methodist Committee
On Relief (UMCOR) celebrated today its decade-long activity in
Armenia with a tree planting in the “Motherhood Park” at
Malatia-Sebastia Community Site in cooperation with the Armenia Tree
Project (ATP).
UMCOR has donated a total of 1,000 trees to this park, a portion
of which has already been planted and the remained part was planted
today by the heads and members of UMCOR, ATP and other guests at the
event. Among the planted three were thujas, ashes and junipers, that
will serve as a beautiful gift from UMCOR to the local community,
ensuring future generations with a flourishing dense green park, in
place of the site’s current deserted land.
Invited to participate in the ceremonial tree planting were
representatives from UMCOR’s partners and friends, government
ministries, and over 55 local and international organizations who
have shown support for the Armenian transition over the years.
Following the welcome speeches planting commenced supervised by
agriculture specialists from ATP, who explained and demonstrated the
methodology of tree planting in order to secure the survival of each
and every seedling.
The hope of this event was to foster community awareness of the
urgent environmental need to restore disappearing green areas.
Furthermore, the event established a basis for further UMCOR-ATP
collaborations with respect to community outreach and poverty
reduction programs throughout the city.
UMCOR and ATP already have had an opportunity to collaborate with
each other. It was in June 2000, when 3 volunteers through UMCOR’s
“Global Justice Volunteer” program joined ATP staff doing volunteer
work in ATP’s programs. These volunteers were hosted by ATP
employees’ families and they spent their time helping and supporting
ATP in its daily activities.

ArmenPress
Nov 19 2004
WORLD BANK PRAISES 2005 DRAFT BUDGET
YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 19, ARMENPRESS: World Bank Resident
Representative in Armenia praised today the government for increased
spending on health, education and social sector, earmarked in its
2005 draft budget. The Bank Representative, Rodger Robinson, said it
was evidence of the government’s commitment to implement the Poverty
Reduction Program.
Robinson described bigger spending on education than on defense,
set by the budget as “symbolic,” adding though that defense
expenditures are also a government priority. In general, he said, the
2005 draft budget is balanced.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ArmenPress
Nov 19 2004
TRANSIT RAILWAY FROM MOSCOW TO SOUTH CAUCASUS MAY BE RESTORED LATE IN
2005
MOSCOW, NOVEMBER 19, ARMENPRESS: The head of Russian railroad
transport department Mikhail Akulov said the existing problems will
not hamper restoration of the main railway line from Russia to South
Caucasus in 2005. “The railway connection from Moscow to Georgian
capital Tbilisi, and from there to Armenia and Azerbaijan may be
restored in a year time,’ he told Russian reporters, adding that only
the economic aspect of the issue has to be solved.
He said next week a Russian-Georgian commission will meet to
discuss restoration of Russia-Georgia railway link. Georgia has
already presented its version of how much restoration of the railway
from Sukhumi, the capital of its breakaway region of Abkhazia, to
Samtredia station in Georgia will cost. According to approximate
estimation, some $40 million are required to rehabilitate the 187
km-long section.

The Economist
November 20, 2004
U.S. Edition
Small war, big mess: Nagorno-Karabakh
stepanakert
A troubled enclave
A deep-frozen conflict continues to infect the region
ARRIVE in Stepanakert, capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, and nothing
suggests it is a war zone. The streets are clean, public buildings
refurbished, there is a good hospital, a television studio, casinos,
hotels and even a fitness club. The road that links Karabakh to
Armenia may be the best maintained in the Caucasus.
In the mind of Karabakh’s Armenians, their bitter war to break free
of Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, in which some 25,000 people were
killed, is won. They have a president, a flag and a small army. “The
issue is resolved,” says Gegham Baghdasarian, editor of Demo, a local
newspaper. “The people made their statement, then defended it.” But
for Azerbaijan, the war is not over. A ten-year ceasefire is holding,
just, but thousands of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops face off
across minefields. Not only Karabakh, but seven other Azerbaijani
regions – 14% of Azerbaijan’s area all told – are occupied by the
Armenians.
Border blockades imposed by Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey have
turned Armenia into a backwater dependent on Iran and Georgia for
access to the outside world. Between the two former Soviet neighbours
there are no air, road or rail links. Azerbaijan has made sure that a
new oil pipeline from the Caspian to the Mediterranean bypasses
Armenia. About a million people on both sides were ethnically
cleansed from Armenia and Azerbaijan during the conflict. None has
returned.
Nor, despite the prosperity in Stepanakert, is life easy for the
Armenians running Karabakh. Their “republic” remains unrecognised. It
is less an independent entity than an extension of Armenia. The army
is deeply integrated with Armenia’s, the currency is the Armenian
dram, cars have Armenian number plates. Armenian “credits” and gifts
from the Armenian diaspora account for Nagorno-Karabakh’s good
infrastructure.
Shusha, near Stepanakert, illustrates the problem. Once one of the
most charming places in the Caucasus, it is now a ghost town of
gutted buildings and overgrown graveyards. Its Azeri population is
gone. Many inhabitants are Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan, living
wretchedly in what remains of ransacked apartments. Filip Noubel, an
analyst at the International Crisis Group, says that renewed war is
unlikely. But, he adds, the stand-off is being manipulated by both
governments, undermining democracy in both countries.

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 19, 2004, Friday
RUSSIA AND THE U.S. ARE RIVALS IN THE CAUCASUS
SOURCE: Vremya Novostei, November 16, 2004, p. 5
by Gayane Movsesyan
ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER VARDAN OSKANYAN ON THE INFLUENCE OF
EUROPEAN AND U.S. PRESENCE IN THE REGION ON RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN
RELATIONS AND THE PROBLEMS OF SETTLING THE KARABAKH CONFLICT
Armenian President Robert Kocharyan acknowledged on November 15 that
his views of the prospects of settling the Karabakh problem are
pessimistic. He complained that Baku wants to hold negotiations only
with Armenia. Mr. Kocharyan noted that in this regard he has to
defend the positions of Armenia and Nagorny Karabakh in negotiations,
though “this format does not reflect the essence of the conflict”.
This topic was discussed in Moscow during Armenian Foreign Minister
Vardan Oskanyan’s visit.
Question: Armenia doubts that Russia is its ally. Some forces demand
that Armenia orient to joining NATO. Will Yerevan change its foreign
political course?
Answer: The strategic character of Armenian-Russian relations will
not change. Take a look at the dynamic of contacts of our presidents.
Our negotiations are very productive. In fact, the population was
displeased a bit when the Russian-Georgian border was closed – this
created some obstacles for passengers and cargo moving to Armenia.
However, the border was opened, and society calmed down.
Question: Does the US and European presence in the region affect the
Russian-Armenian regions?
Answer: Armenia continues partnership with European and NATO
structures. This is a matter of security of the Caucasus, which
coincides with Russia’s interests. Russia and the US, Russia and
Europe are rivals in the Caucasus – not enemies. Such situation
cannot worsen relations between Russia and Armenia. We act on the
basis of the Friendship agreement signed in 1997. We also signed the
long-term agreement on economic cooperation. This makes our economic
contacts more active.
(…)
Question: Is there progress in settling the Karabakh conflict?
Answer: Nagorny Karabakh is one of the most topical problems in the
Caucasus. Azerbaijan often makes bellicose statements but the
armistice concluded in 1994 remains. This is a very important factor.
We have reached a point where we can achieve concrete decisions. This
has become possible thanks to negotiations held by the Armenian and
Azerbaijani presidents. However, concrete decisions require strong
political will. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan is trying to torpedo
constructive ideas.
Question: Armenia insists on solving the conflict in complex.
Azerbaijan prefers step-by-step settling of the conflict. Is it
possible to reach a compromise?
Answer: It’s a very important task for Armenia to determine the
status of Nagorny Karabakh. We reached concrete agreements regarding
this problem under Heidar Aliyev in 2001. However, Azerbaijan’s
position has become stricter since Ilkham Aliyev came to power.
Meanwhile, we have some approaches, which make it possible to settle
the problem.
(…)
Question: Azerbaijan insisted on adding the issue regarding the
situation in Azerbaijan’s territories occupied by Armenia to the
agenda of the 59th session of the UN General Assembly. Is it
reasonable?
Answer: Discussing this issue at the UN General Assembly will not
contribute to settling of the conflict. This will hinder the process.
I think that this is a serious mistake made by Azerbaijan, unless it
seeks to torpedo the situation. The international community states
that this move is very dangerous. The co-chairmen of the Minsk OSCE
group and a representative of the EU opposed discussing this issue at
the session.
We could reach a new level of relations if we started a second round
of negotiations at the level of foreign ministers. However, it’s
impossible now. We propose to continue discussing this problem within
the framework of the Minsk OSCE group. If Azerbaijan decided to
discuss the problem with other international structures it must
discuss it with representatives of Nagorny Karabakh.

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 19, 2004, Friday
THE COUNCIL OF FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
COLLECTIVE SECURITY TREATY HELD A MEETING IN MOSCOW
The foreign ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Russia and Tajikistan discussed topical problems of international and
regional security, and the performance of the organization in the
main sectors of its activities. They considered the
military-political situation in the responsibility zone of the
Organization of the collective security treaty, the situation in the
central-Asian region, nonproliferation of mass destruction weapons
and the post-conflict situation in Afghanistan. In this regard the
ministers focused on improving legal mechanisms of the Collective
rapid deployment force, the joint staff of the organization of the
collective security treaty and training of servicemen.
He statement passed by the foreign ministers reflects the intention
of member nations of the organization of the collective security
treaty to take additional measures against terrorism, drug
trafficking, proliferation of mass destruction weapons and more.
According to the document, members of the organization consider US
President George W. Bush’s initiative on nonproliferation of mass
destruction weapons as an important element of the world’s security.
Two meetings of executive bodies of the organization of the
collective security treaty will be held in November. The Council of
the defense ministers will hold a meeting in Moscow on November 25.
The committee of secretaries of the security services will hold a
meeting in Yerevan on November 30.
Source: Krasnaya Zvezda, November 17, 2004, p. 3
Translated by Alexander Dubovoi

RosBusinessConsulting Database
November 19, 2004 Friday 6:04 am, EST
Russia not to send more servicemen to Armenia
Russia is not planning to increase its military contingent in
Armenia, a representative of Russia’s Armed Forces told journalists
in Yerevan, having added that this decision had to be made at the
level of the countries’ Presidents and Prime Ministers. As such, he
refuted information that Russia was going to re-deploy its military
base in Georgia to Armenia, the ARKA news agency reported.
Russian military presence in Armenia, along with border troops, is
considered to be an important factor in Armenia’s security. The
personnel strength of the Russian base in this country amounts to
4,000 people.

Sun 14 11 2004 20:17:24 PM
Artist Interviewed:: KASABIAN
I’m sitting in a mangy tour-bus with Karloff from Kasabian, guerilla
rock group rising in fame from their top 20 hit, Club Foot and support
from XFM. Whatever. What I am struck by is how the guys are into easy
reads in a big way, with at least three television magazines scattered
about the bus, as well as the Sun, and some Mr. Men books. Maybe I
need my priorities straightening out. Maybe this wasn’t what I was
expecting from young, anarchistic guerilla rockers. Where’s Young
Socialist? These are boys described by NME as `Edgy, euphoric and
electrifying.’
Kasabian came to fame in May when their song Club Foot became a
surprise top 20 hit, and more success followed when their album was
released in September. Kasabian had a top summer, playing at
Glastonbury and Summer Sonny in Japan, and are invading Great Britain.
Twenty minutes ago Kasabian were playing in their home town, Leister
at the Summer Sundae event to a large, openly enthusiastic audience,
not to mention a few besotted female fans. But while the other members
of the band are enjoying a beer in the sunshine, Chris Karloff has
kindly agreed to give me a few minutes for questions before they all
head-out to perform at Reading.
First of all, I ask Karloff about the unusual name for the group. The
group’s name was actually taken from Linda Kasabian, the star witness
who put Charles Manson in jail, but as Karloff tells me, it also has
“the significant meaning of `butcher’ in Armenian.” Their website,
which suits their music, is built out of a self-confessed `obsession
with guerilla shit’.
So how was the set?
My electrics blew up in stage in the first stage ‘cos my synth blew
up… But it’s good to come back at home. Generally it’s better to
play later, which would have been better. But it was good fun, I saw
people really getting into it.
Do you have a favourite track?
I love all of them, I do like Club Foot, because I like playing the
bass. I do also like Reason is Treason. It’s cool and good exercise
for my wrist.
Who’s the most famous person you’ve met ?
It would have to be Roger Daltry and Pete Townsend. It was unreal, we
were going to walk off and Roger Daltry carried on speaking to us. You
know – normal bloke after everything he’s done. And he’s done a lot.
Who’ve you been influenced by musically?
Everything from Jimi Hendrix to the Beatles to the Stones to Bob Dylan
– to name the obvious ones, to Pink Floyd pretty things, to film
scores: John Williams, Bernard Herman… loads and loads of stuff.
How do you come up with the music?
Me and Serge mainly. We just sit around on the computer and get
something down, a loop, a riff, whatever and add things on from
there. It’s just like a snowball.
So what’s with all the T.V. magazines?
We really like T.V.! Don’t get a chance to watch much of it though.
Final Life message:
Don’t be a miserable bastard, anybody do what you got to do, don’t
bottle it in. Cos you will regret it
And don’t listen to other people unless you know you can value their
opinions.
May the power of revolution stay with you, Kasabian.