Zaman, Turkey
March 18 2005
[COMMENTARY]
The EU & Turkish-Armenian Relations – A Catalyst for Change?
by Amanda Akcakoca
Introduction
Although Turkey and Armenia have a troubled relationship they share a
common goal – EU integration.
On 3rd October 2005 Turkey will open accession talks with the
European Union. The talks are expected to be long and difficult and
Turkey will have to face-up to many tough issues, including its
long-standing problems with Armenia during the course of these
discussions.
At the same time, Armenia, which is now part of the European
Neighbourhood Policy, clearly sees this new EU initiative as a
stepping-stone to full membership. Whichever Armenian politician you
talk to the answer is always the same – their vision of the future is
as a full member of the EU family. This in itself is quite
interesting as ENP does not offer the prospect of membership. This
point, however, seems to be regularly disregarded. However, in order
to move closer to this ambition Armenia will have to normalize its
relations with its neighbours and carry out massive reforms.
Currently diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey remain
frozen. Three issues dominate: the closed border, the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the alleged genocide of 1915-16.
Although the genocide issue is extremely important it does not
directly effect either country’s integration aspirations or their
relations with the EU. The other two issues do, however.
Without doubt one of the biggest success stories of the EU has been
its ability to bring about change in countries aspiring to be closer
to the EU. The new member states from Central and Eastern Europe as
well as Romania and Bulgaria are a clear example of this
accomplishment. The reforms that have taken place to date in Turkey
can also be substantially accredited to the EU carrot. Thereby, it is
clear that the EU could have an important role to play in the
transformation of Turkish-Armenian relations.
Problems Turkey will Face Vis-à-Vis Armenia
Improving public opinion in EU Member States is going to be a
priority of the Turkish government. To this end, Ankara envisages
carrying out a large-scale communications and public relations
campaign to win the hearts and minds of those skeptical over Turkish
membership. However, as long as Turkey continues with its current
policy towards Yerevan the government will face difficulties in
trying to achieve this. The Armenian government, as well as its very
large diaspora community, (± 6 million world-wide) will continue to
condemn and criticize Turkey. In France, for example, a country
already very unenthusiastic and negative over Turkish membership, and
where 250,000 Armenians reside, it would seem difficult for such a
campaign to succeed. The Armenian government and the diaspora
community will work as a team. While the Armenian government will
continue to push for the normalization of diplomatic relations and
the opening of the border, the diaspora community will maintain its
call for recognition of the alleged Armenian genocide. (24 April will
mark the 90th anniversary of this incident and a number of
conferences and seminars are expected to take place across Europe to
mark the event.) Turkey cannot afford to keep churning out the same
tired old arguments of decades.
Overall, it would seem that the Armenian government was pleased with
the decision of the European Union to open accession talks with
Turkey on 3 October 2005. As long as Turkey is in this “process” its
relationship with Armenia is destined to improve and eventually
normalize. The current status quo over the frozen diplomatic
relations and closed border cannot be sustained if Turkey is to
become a full member of the EU. However, how quickly or slowly Ankara
decides to move on this issue will be significant. Although Turkey’s
accession is estimated to take place in 10-15 years time, the
Armenian government will not want to wait until the very last moment
for a solution. Without doubt Yerevan will make the most of this new
window of opportunity it now has to influence the EU and member
states into pressing Turkey to normalizing relations.
The government, therefore, needs to face the fact that its current
policy towards Armenia is unsustainable. It is time for Prime
Minister Erdogan to begin to look at realistic and practical ways in
which to normalize relations with Yerevan. Turkey must take some
courageous steps regarding Armenia.
The Closed Border
Without doubt the most important step Turkey should take is to
normalize diplomatic relations and open the border. Turkey sealed the
frontier in 1993 – at the height of the Armenian-Azeri conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh – as an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan. The
policy has cost the region dearly, as it blocks trade routes vital
not only to Armenia and Turkey, but to the entire area. The Turkish
town of Kars is testiment to this. The main road and rail routes from
Turkey to the Caspian, for instance, go through Armenia, and are
currently closed due to the blockade. Baku argues that if Turkey were
to open its frontier with Armenia to trade, it would remove a vital
incentive for Yerevan to make concessions in the Karabakh peace
process, which at present is in a deadlock. However, if Azerbaijan
and Armenia are serious about ENP and moving closer to Brussels, they
will not be able to continue with this deadlock situation and will
have to be willing to approach talks with a more give-and-take
attitude. Although the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey (as
well as other officials) meet to discuss their common problems it
would appear that there is never any real progress made but rather
each country blames the other for the stalemate.
Turkey has continually argued three points on this issue – that a
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be a pre-condition
to opening the border (even though Turkey is not directly involved in
this conflict); that Armenia should drop the genocide claims and that
Armenia must recognize Turkey’s border – a subject that both sides
continually disagree over.
On this question of territory, Turkey maintains that Armenia still
has a territorial claim on Eastern Turkey as Article 11 of the
Declaration of Independence attached to the Armenian Constitution
cites ” the Republic of Armenia stands in support of the task of
achieving international recognition of the 1915 Genocide in Ottoman
Turkey and Western Armenia”. However, Armenia insists that this
document has no legal standing, that Armenia has declared more than
once, and at all levels, that Yerevan does not have any territorial
claims and that Armenia recognizes the border as stated in the Kars
Agreement which was drawn up between the Soviet Union and Turkey
prior to Armenian independence. Moreover, in the event of a
resumption in diplomatic relations a Protocol on the establishment of
diplomatic relations, clearly stating that the two states respect
each others territory, and clearly stating what those territories
are, could be signed making this long-running dispute void.
Moreover, over the last few years Turkey has clearly demonstrated
that it wants to turn into a mature democracy. That the days when
people could be jailed for expressing an opinion that went against
that of the state are gone. Therefore is it not time for Turkey’s
political elite to step back and reassess this policy on Armenia?
The opening of the border would be beneficial for Turkey and Armenia
in many respects. Firstly, it would send a clear signal to the
international community that there is a strong will and determination
of both countries to solve their problems. Moreover opening the
border would promote contact, trade, business opportunities and
tourism between the population of both countries which would, in
turn, help to build confidence and understanding between these two
neighbours. Without such a move the current climate of tension will
continue to smolder indefinitely.
The Genocide Question
As already stated, this issue is not linked to Turkish accession.
However, certain politicians, the French Foreign Minister, Michel
Barnier for example, has expressed a desire to see this issue
addressed within the process and it is possible that other political
leaders may decide to give this issue for attention. Therefore it
would seem sensible for Ankara to be more focused in its approach.
The standard Turkish response of “we never committed genocide” would
seem to be no longer sufficient. The government needs to take a more
pro-active stance in the on-going debate. A transparent and clear
dialogue needs to be undertaken which would allow Armenian and
Turkish historians to sit down and debate the matter with all the
archived information from both sides opened. A direct dialogue
between Turkish and Armenian historians that began in 2004 between
the Turkish Historical Society and their counterparts from the
Armenian Academy of Science and Yerevan’s Genocide Museum formed the
Vienna Armenian-Turkish Historians Platform (VAT) ground to a halt
after the first meeting in 2004. Therefore, it would seem appropriate
that a next step could be the formation of an International
Commission under the auspices of the UN. This would help ensure
impartiality and to encourage the opening of all archives.
EU Role in the Region
The European Union clearly wants to deal with the countries of the
South Caucasus as a region. Presently this is impossible. To this
end, Armenia and its neighbours must endeavor to do all they can to
improve regional stability. All three countries have expressed a
desire to become further integrated into the EU and to meet EU
standards and values. The European Union has recently released
Country Reports for all three countries. These will be followed by
Action Plans in the autumn. Most importantly, Armenia must
demonstrate, along with Azerbaijan, that it has a real political will
to bring about a resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia
continues to occupy 20% of Azeri territory. Without the resolution of
this conflict it is difficult to see how the EU could seriously
engage itself in the region.
Although the inclusion of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in the
European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was clearly a significant step
forward in the EU’s involvement in the region, the effectiveness of
the EU in region will depend on its ability to establish a true
partnership particularly in the area of conflict resolution,
political and economic reform and intra-regional co-operation. Again,
much political will to change the status quo will need to be
demonstrated.
Turkey, integrated into the enlargement process, has a real
opportunity to play a key role in the application and implementation
of the ENP. The EU therefore needs to conduct a dialogue with Turkey
on policies and actions vis-à-vis the region. In this regard,
additional support through instruments such as technical assistance
and twinning will boost the development of various forms of
cross-border cooperation involving local and regional authorities,
non-governmental actors and business communities by building on the
achievements of Turkish Armenian Business Development Council and
others in the border regions.
Conclusion
Up until now the policies applied by both Turkey and Armenia have
failed. With Turkey’s accession talks due to begin later this year
and with Armenia involvement in the ENP and clear EU ambitions it
would seem that the time has come to open a new chapter and to begin
a fresh process of dialogue and reconciliation. Leaders of both
countries, with some help from the EU, need to find the political
will to begin thinking in global and realistic terms and start taking
steps for peace, if they are serious about bringing stability and
peace to the region. The end result can only be a win-win situation
for all.
Amanda Akcakoca
Policy Analyst
European Policy Centre, Brussels