Armenpress: Russia offers Turkey cooperation in the field of small-capacity nuclear power plants

 17:40,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 25, ARMENPRESS. Russia sees prospects for cooperation with Turkey in the field of nuclear power plants of small capacity.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the meeting of the intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation, Tass reports.

"We are ready to continue cooperation in the field of small capacity nuclear power plants," Tass quoted Novak as saying at the meeting.




Turkish Press: Government House of Armenia loses power during Cabinet ministers’ meeting

Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Nov 24 2023
Elena Teslova  |24.11.2023 – Update : 24.11.2023

MOSCOW

The Government House of Armenia in the capital Yerevan suffered a power outage Thursday during a meeting of Cabinet ministers.

The incident occurred while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was speaking.

After the lights went out, he went off topic and asked Infrastructure Minister Gnel Sanosyan why he had been unable to ensure stable electricity supply in Armenia.

“How many more instructions do I need to give? I can't give instructions on the same subject for 10 years, can I?” he said.

Pashinyan noted that even in a government building and in the offices of top officials, the lights are constantly flickering, and no one is surprised by the latest power outage.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/government-house-of-armenia-loses-power-during-cabinet-ministers-meeting/3063230

After Nagorno-Karabakh: How Europeans can strengthen Armenia’s resilience

Nov 24 2023

The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities

On 19 September, Azerbaijan retook the long disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia decided not to respond militarily, out of a lack of capabilities and an unwillingness to engage in another bloody war which they would eventually lose. After Azerbaijan’s months-long blockade, some 100,000 residents of the enclave fled to Armenia in just a few days. Many were housed by Armenians, largely avoiding an immediate refugee crisis. But other challenges may be looming for Armenia’s security if Azerbaijan decides to push further into its territory. To prevent such an escalation, the European Union should step up its diplomatic engagement while working more actively to strengthen Armenia’s societal resilience and defence capabilities.

For now, Armenians seem to blame Russia more than their government for what has happened. This is consistent with the rapid deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations since the 2020 war and the Moscow-brokered truce. The poor performance of the Russian ‘peacekeeping’ contingent stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, along with Moscow’s reluctance to support its Armenian ally even after Azerbaijani incursions into its territory in 2021 and 2022, and finally the absence of any Russian reaction to the Azerbaijani offensive on 19 September, has left many Armenians doubting Russia’s security backing.

These security concerns are far from over. With Azerbaijan taking back full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the 35-year conflict over the disputed territory has now de facto turned into an interstate conflict over the delimitation, or the establishing of the outer limits, of an international border. Increasing Azerbaijani rhetoric referring to southern Armenia as “western Azerbaijan” has fuelled Yerevan’s concerns about possible irredentist claims over the territory of Armenia itself. The issue of border delimitation has been touched upon in the ongoing peace negotiations between the two countries. But, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev regularly sends signals of his unwillingness to agree on anything in a Western-led negotiating format and has instead advocated for a settlement involving “regional actors” ie, Russia and Turkey.

Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Russia, in such a scenario, could team up in a regional format that excludes the EU and United States, in order to arm-twist Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan into concessions, including the establishment of a land ‘corridor’ – branded as the Zangezur corridor – through Armenia’s southernmost Syunik region. Here, Pashinyan’s hand would be weak and Armenia’s domestic stability under constant threat, possibly opening avenues for internal destabilisation and making the country more vulnerable to external meddling. Even without this negotiation format Armenia faces such threats. Shortly after Azerbaijani forces retook Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan accused Russia of making “public calls for a change of power in Armenia, to overthrow the democratic government”.

Azerbaijan's current military positions at Armenia’s border and the tremendous disbalance of power between the two countries has raised the Armenian government’s fears of a possible invasion

However, Azerbaijan's current military positions at Armenia’s border and the tremendous disbalance of power between the two countries has also raised the Armenian government’s fears of a possible invasion. Azerbaijan took three weeks to build up and prepare the attack in Nagorno-Karabakh, as it enjoyed military support from Turkey and Israel. It could take approximately the same time to attack the Syunik region and Azerbaijan would probably prefer to do so before winter kicks in.[1]

Both scenarios could carry dramatic consequences for Armenia, not least because its fragile democracy would be endangered by domestic discontent as well as Russian pressure. But it would also be very damaging for the EU, which has engaged resources and political capital in its mediation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its credibility would be significantly damaged if it were to let regional actors play with borders in its immediate neighbourhood, and would discredit its commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Furthermore, the establishment of a land corridor through the Syunik region poses significant risks for Europe, whether established through militarily means and fully controlled by Azerbaijan, or through negotiations and formally controlled by Russian forces. This would entail Turkey and Azerbaijan, possibly with Russia’s support, gaining de facto control over a corridor connecting the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea, one of the key routes connecting Europe to Central Asia and China.

The EU should act to prevent such a scenario via addressing short, medium, and long-term concerns:

  1. Preventing further escalation
  • The first priority should be to deter an Azerbaijani attack on the territory of Armenia through high-level political engagement with the government in Yerevan. This would show that European leaders care for Armenia. But Europeans should also engage with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The consequences of a possible attack, including the prospect of restrictive measures, should be made clear to the Azerbaijani leadership.
  • Extending the mandate of the EU mission to Armenia (EUMA) to better trace ceasefire violations and providing it with technical means to exert a more thorough monitoring of the border may also be instrumental in preventing further escalation. The decision taken at the EU Foreign Affairs Council on 13 November to strengthen the EUMA to allow for more observers and patrols is a step in this direction.
  1. Strengthening defence capabilities
  • Armenian membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) should not be an excuse to not help it build up its defence capacity. Rather, the EU should be open to using the European Peace Facility to equip the Armenian armed forces. Delivering equipment will also require EU engagement with Georgia to provide a transport corridor.
  • And while most eyes are on military equipment, the EU is best suited to provide other kinds of assistance to strengthen Armenia’s defence capacity. Assistance to reform the administration (Ministry of Defence), logistics, military education, training, and operational and tactical planning and procedures need to be put in place to enable Armenia to make use of new equipment effectively.
  • Recently India has emerged as a new provider of hard security assistance to Armenia and in this role is less suspect to Moscow and Tehran than the West. Strategic consultations with the government in Delhi on supporting Armenia militarily should also form part of the European effort.
  • Reforming and re-equipping Armenia’s armed forces so they are able to withstand an Azerbaijani offensive will take several years, while to prepare an Azerbaijani offensive could take a few weeks. While Armenia remains highly vulnerable, Europe should exert diplomatic and economic pressure to keep the situation from escalating.
  1. Supporting a peace settlement
  • In parallel, the EU should step up mediation efforts, and use the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer part of the negotiation to reframe the discussion around the issue of borders. Mediation should aim for an agreement on the delimitation and opening of borders – including the border between Armenia and Turkey – in a way that provides security to all sides. This discussion will not be easy, but it could allow for technical solutions to problems that are currently framed in terms of sovereignty: primarily the question of a transit route through Armenian territory to connect Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. As part of a future peace settlement the EU could offer technical support and possible investments to facilitate transit and connectivity in the wider region to incentivise the opening of borders.
  • Last but not least, the EU should work towards increasing Armenia’s societal resilience. In the short term, humanitarian support will be needed for Nagorno-Karabakh refugees. Their integration into Armenian society will be key to ensuring future domestic political stability in the medium and long term. Beyond this, the EU can also contribute to institutions and capacity building in the country, to make it less vulnerable to both domestic instability and external pressures.

Ultimately, the EU also needs to manage Armenia’s expectations and should refrain from making unachievable promises. By doing so, it risks exposing Armenia to greater threats not just from Azerbaijan, but also from Russia, in which case it will end up bearing responsibility for a potential worsening situation, hurting its credibility in the region. The EU cannot make Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan go away – nor will it completely replace them. But it can support Armenia in balancing their interests without having to make exorbitant sacrifices, and it can help avoid Armenia’s imbalanced dependency on one regional power that would leave it at its mercy.


[1] Authors’ interviews with diplomats and Armenian officials held under the Chatham House rule, Yerevan, Armenia, 10-12 October 2023.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.

https://ecfr.eu/article/after-nagorno-karabakh-how-europeans-can-strengthen-armenias-resilience/

Revolutionising rehabilitation in Armenia

EBRD – European Bank
Nov 24 2023

By Nick Thompson

Based in Yerevan, Armenia, QaylTech is the first Armenian company to specialise in the production of innovative devices that employ virtual reality headsets to aid in the rehabilitation process of people with disabilities. The aim is to improve their quality of life and, where possible, restore mobility.

With support from the EBRD’s Women in Business programme and Sweden, through the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), QaylTech sought to develop a comprehensive business development plan and roadmap for growth, unlocking new markets and enabling it to build on its innovations.

Founders in motion

Officially founded in 2020, QaylTech is run by business – and real-life – partners and pioneers, CEO Lilit Guroghlyan and her husband, Dr. Davit Arsenyan. The couple are leaders of innovation in the next frontier of healthcare, specialising in the creation and production of rehabilitation devices, equipment and assistive technologies for children and adults with temporary or life-long disabilities.

In Armenian, ‘Qayl’ translates to ‘walk’ or ‘move’, and the name QaylTech blends this with the company’s novel use of emerging technology to help its patients.

Driven by humanitarian and social concerns, “The aim of the company is to help solve global problems with technological solutions,” says Lilit.

EBRD support

When QaylTech was still at the start-up stage, its founders realised it needed new investment to grow, which was impossible without a financial evaluation and plan.

“After learning that the EBRD would support us and provide co-financing, we decided to apply,” Lilit explains. “It was then possible to present an assessment of the company to investors and obtain seed financing. Thanks to this opportunity, we have added new members to the team, developed new products, and acquired new partners in foreign markets.”

Since the EBRD project, the company has recorded growth of around 300 per cent and QaylTech was valued at about $8.5 million last year: “We have seen a leap in growth, resulting from new licenses and entering international markets. Now we are moving on to the next stage – investment,” she says.

Virtual innovations

Rehabilitation can be a long and onerous journey, often leading to frustration and disengagement.

QaylTech’s latest innovation, the MetaGait device, seeks to address this through its unique mobility rehabilitation process. It comprises a special mechanism which activates the leg and arm muscles – as well as other parts of the body – and is complemented by an immersive virtual reality (VR) headset, which allows patients to explore other worlds in the metaverse and even ski in the mountains while they undergo therapy.

This simulated environment provides some practical escapism for the patient while they use the MetaGait device and establish new neural connections in the brain, activating their muscle memory accordingly. The device provides the flexibility to allow therapies to be tailored to individual needs.

With this complementary technology, QaylTech is demonstrating that VR is no longer confined to the realms of gaming and entertainment and that these cutting-edge technologies can also make remarkable breakthroughs in healthcare, particularly in the field of rehabilitation.

Creating a new reality

Virtual reality has the potential to change the face of rehabilitation for individuals with mobility issues and disabilities around the world.

By enhancing engagement, personalising therapy, promoting neuroplasticity, and improving accessibility, these technologies are revolutionising the approach to the rehabilitation process. As they continue to evolve and become more widely available, we can expect even more breakthroughs in the field, offering newfound hope and independence to those on their journey to recovery.

Looking to the future, QaylTech’s goal is to build on its success: expanding further into international markets and continuing to offer large-scale, high-quality and innovative approaches to rehabilitative medical equipment.

“Every idea is led by a team who appreciate the importance of the work being done despite the challenges. At QaylTech we have fostered a dream team, with a unity that allow us to develop and make our ideas a reality,” says Lilit. “We are all motivated by being in a position to give a boost to production in Armenia: creating new employment opportunities, solving health problems, and contributing to improving the quality of life for people with disabilities,” she concludes.

A very noble goal from a CEO who is clearly committed to nurturing a more inclusive society for her patients and more broadly in Armenia and beyond.

Armenian PM says Russia has not delivered weapons Yerevan has paid for -TASS

Reuters
Nov 24 2023

Nov 24 (Reuters) – Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Friday that Russia had not yet delivered weapons his country had paid for and that talks were underway to try to find a solution, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

Relations between Russia and Armenia, treaty allies, have soured in recent months, with Pashinyan accusing Moscow of failing to support his country in its conflict with longtime rival Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku's forces in September recaptured Karabakh, which is viewed internationally as part of Azerbaijan, prompting more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee the territory into Armenia as Russian peacekeepers largely stood by.

"As for the non-provision of weapons and equipment in exchange for payments, of course, there are problems," TASS quoted Pashinyan as saying during a press conference broadcast online.

"Consultations are underway on mechanisms for solving these problems," he said, adding that one option might be to reduce Armenia's outstanding debts to Russia in exchange for the payment already made, given that Moscow also needed weapons.

He gave no details on the arms that Armenia had bought or how much it had paid for them.

Pashinyan also accused Russian state television channels broadcasting in Armenia of violating local rules, saying that consultations with Moscow on that issue were also needed.

Russian state television has repeatedly blamed Pashinyan for Armenia's loss of Karabakh.

The Armenian premier referred to a bilateral accord between Yerevan and Moscow which stipulates "that no steps should be taken to interfere in the internal affairs of the country, to destabilize the internal political situation in the country".

Pashinyan has annoyed Moscow in recent months by calling into question Armenia's alliance with Russia and seeking to deepen ties to Western countries, while also purchasing arms from new suppliers including France and India.

Reporting by Reuters Writing by Felix Light Editing by Andrew Osborn and Gareth Jones

Armenia PM Criticizes Russia as Rift With Moscow Grows Wider

Nov 24 2023
AFP - Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Friday that Russia had failed to deliver weapons Yerevan had already paid for and accused Russia's media of destabilizing his country's political situation.

The remarks highlighted Armenia's growing rift with its powerful ally after Russian peacekeepers failed to prevent Azerbaijan's offensive to retake its Armenian-controlled separatist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

"There is a problem related to the delivery of (Russian) weaponry and equipment for which we have already paid," Pashinyan said in televised remarks.

"Discussions are currently underway on the mechanisms to resolve this problem."

"We know that the Russian Federation itself needs weapons," he said, in an apparent reference to Russia's war on Ukraine.

READ MORE

He also said there were "certain problems" with respecting a bilateral agreement "stipulating that no efforts should be made to interfere in internal affairs or destabilize the domestic political situation in the country" by the two countries' broadcast media.

Pashinyan said Yerevan had invited Moscow to hold consultations "so that we can resolve this issue in a friendly and normal atmosphere."

Armenia is part of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which obliges Russia to defend Armenia in the event of a foreign invasion.

Pashinyan has accused the CSTO of failing to fulfill that obligation, including when Armenia said its neighbor and arch-foe Azerbaijan had seized small pockets of its territory over the past three years.

On Thursday, Armenia refused to participate in a CSTO summit in Belarus, the latest _expression_ of Yerevan's growing discontent.

In a lightning military operation in September, Azerbaijan reclaimed its breakaway region of Karabakh from Armenian separatist forces which had controlled the mountainous territory for three decades.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/24/armenia-pm-criticizes-russia-as-rift-with-moscow-grows-wider-a83215







Armenian prime minister says Russia failed to supply prepaid arms deliveries, proposes debt reduction instead

MEDUZA
Nov 24 2023
5:47 pm,
Source: Meduza

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia had paid Russia “millions of dollars” for arms supplies as part of a bilateral contract, but has not yet received any.

Pashinyan said he realizes that Russia “needs arms itself” now, and suggested that the issue of arms supplies can be solved in a variety of ways, including the reduction of Armenia’s debt to Russia.

In May, the Secretary for the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, said that Russia hadn’t supplied the weapons for which Armenia had already paid. Russia has not officially reported any recent military contracts with Armenia.

On November 22, the Armenian newspaper Zhogorvud referenced sources who said that the contract was for the delivery of Smerch missiles and that it was signed several years ago. According to the newspaper, the missiles were ready prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russian side reportedly offered to take the weapons out of the warehouses on three different occasions, but Armenia did not do so. After the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia started using the missiles itself.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/11/24/armenian-prime-minister-says-russia-failed-to-supply-prepaid-arms-deliveries-proposes-debt-reduction-instead

Pashinyan answered the questions of Armenian residents for more than 8 hours. Main theses


Nov 24 2023


  • JAMnews
  • Yerevan

The press conference of the Armenian Prime Minister lasted for more than eight hours with short breaks. This time it was held in a new format – without journalists. Nikol Pashinyan answered citizens’ video questions, which were very different in thematic terms – up to the treatment of specific people, payment of pensions and other social problems. There were also questions concerning the country’s security, the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and Armenian-Russian relations.


  • “Take aid to Armenia off the agenda” – Yerevan’s appeal to the CSTO
  • “We are not satisfied with many things” – Armenian Foreign Minister on relations with Russia
  • “Entrust Armenia’s security to an American private company” – political scientist

Has Armenia decided to withdraw from the CSTO military bloc operating under the auspices of Russia? There is no definite and final answer to this question yet. At least, the prime minister, who has repeatedly spoken about the allies’ failure to fulfill their obligations, is still waiting for clarification:

“We want to do everything possible to fully understand the CSTO and make our position clear to the military alliance.”

At the same time, Pashinyan is aware: if all the potential for clarifying relations is considered exhausted, the Armenian society has the right to ask why the government does not leave the organization. As he put it, “a structure that gives nothing to the Republic of Armenia and, on the contrary, creates additional problems for the security system.”

The Prime Minister emphasized that the government has the political will to make decisions that meet the interests of the country:

“If there was no such will, there would be no critical statements from Yerevan regarding the activities of the bloc. The de facto actions or inactions of the CSTO do not correspond to the obligations of the organization towards Armenia and do not correspond to Armenia’s interests.

Moreover, membership in the CSTO is an insurmountable obstacle to support and cooperation with other partners. We have to make decisions that meet our interests. If at the moment we have made a decision or have not made a decision, our reference point is the state interest of Armenia”.

An Armenian resident asked how the government intends to solve the issue of undelivered weapons from Russia, for which the country paid millions of dollars. Pashinyan replied that the discussion of mechanisms for solving this problem is still ongoing:

“For example, one of the options could be to deduct the amount paid from the Republic of Armenia’s debt to Russia. And this is not the only option. The Russian Federation itself needs arms. The Armenian side is determined to solve the issue in a businesslike manner and hopes that the negotiations will bring concrete results”.

A question was raised whether the government plans to deprive Russian TV channels of airtime in connection with the recent scandalous incidents and the airing of programs containing anti-Armenian propaganda.

Pashinyan replied that the airing of Russian TV channels in Armenia is agreed upon by interstate agreement. And in recent months, Armenian state structures have been recording violations of the clauses of this agreement.

“There is a clear regulation that [in the content of TV channels] there cannot be interference in the internal affairs of the country, attempts to destabilize the internal political situation,” he stressed.

However, given its friendly relations with Russia, the Ministry of High-Tech Industry has officially invited Russian colleagues for consultations “to find solutions.”

“I hope that these consultations will take place as soon as possible so that we can resolve this issue in a normal, working, friendly atmosphere.”

The Prime Minister was asked this question from the town of Meghri in Syunik region – in the south of Armenia. Pashinyan replied that the government does not single out Syunik as a vulnerable zone in terms of security.

“There are also security problems in Tavush, Gegharkunik, Ararat, Vayots Dzor. These problems are obvious, they should be neither underestimated nor overestimated.”

According to the PM, Syunik is one of the most economically active regions of the country. Over the past 5 years, the government has invested more than 100 billion drams [$250 million] in the region and is implementing numerous projects, including with the financial support of the European Union.

“All this is done in order to give a clear political signal: all our plans related to Syunik are related to strategic development, welfare and economic activity.”

He emphasized that Meghri city itself is included in the concept of developing Armenia’s transportation system, unblocking regional communications under the government’s “Crossroads of the World” project.

The reason, according to the Prime Minister, is that “Azerbaijan’s policy of ethnic cleansing has not changed.”

“In conditions when IDPs have no opportunity to return to the places where they were born and lived, the government’s policy is the following: to do everything so that they stay in Armenia and do not leave,” he said.

Pashinyan said that immediately after their arrival in Armenia, the impression was that many would leave. There was a large flow of Karabakh Armenians who left for other countries. However, according to the Prime Minister, statistics shows that then they returned. Assumes that perhaps they traveled to their relatives.

“In order to solve the security problem, the Armenian government is pursuing a peace agenda. We have also ensured rather strong international consolidation on the issues of defense of territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence and democracy of the Republic of Armenia,” the Prime Minister said.

He believes that there is no absolute security in the current situation in the world. And it is necessary to form reliable security mechanisms in these new conditions. He is convinced that only “de jure enshrined and binding peace” can provide 100 percent security, which he seeks.

According to the Prime Minister, it is not clear at the moment whether Azerbaijan is ready to sign a peace agreement with Armenia based on the three principles agreed upon during the talks in the Brussels format:

“We cannot say with certainty that Azerbaijan refuses to sign an agreement based on these principles, but neither can we say that Baku reaffirms its commitment to these three principles.”

Earlier, Pashinyan said the following three principles were agreed upon with Azerbaijan during trilateral meetings held in Brussels on May 14 and July 15, 2023:

  • “Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity with the understanding that Armenia’s territory is 29,800 square kilometers and Azerbaijan’s territory is 86,600 square kilometers.
  • The 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration is the political basis for the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In fact, there is also an understanding that the delimitation should utilize the 1974-1990 maps of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Soviet Union. It is also agreed that Armenia and Azerbaijan have no territorial claims against each other and undertake not to make such claims in the future.
  • Regional communications should be unblocked on the basis of sovereignty, jurisdiction, reciprocity and equality of countries”.

During the upcoming talks, the Prime Minister intends to clarify these issues and make conclusions:

“Although there was a statement from Baku that Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia, we need specifics on what they mean by that.”

More than 100 captives have returned home, the prime minister recalled. But he is dissatisfied with the fact that it was not possible to achieve positive results on the remaining captive compatriots.

“Baku is using the humanitarian issue for political purposes, which is illogical. We express our willingness to be flexible and work with Azerbaijan so that the captives return. We are even ready to exchange Azerbaijanis convicted [for crimes committed on Armenian territory, including murder], on the principle of all for all. We continue our work,” he said.

He reminded that in parallel with the negotiations, Armenia is appealing to the ECHR and other instances on the issue of prisoners.

Pashinyan did not answer the question about what Armenia is doing to free the leaders of the unrecognized NKR who are in Azerbaijani captivity.

https://jam-news.net/pashinyans-answers-to-the-questions-of-armenian-citizens/

Is BP financing Armenia’s destruction?

Nov 24 2023
BELTWAY CONFIDENTIAL

As Hamas partisans continue the calumny that Israel’s counterterror operations equate to genocide, real genocide looms in the South Caucasus. In September, Azerbaijani troops seized the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing the exodus of its 120,000 indigenous Christians.

Both Azerbaijan and Turkey long used the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute to justify hostility to Armenia. Their actions subsequent to the conquest of the largely Christian region, however, hint that diplomatic dispute was more an excuse for their hostility rather than its true cause.

Driving along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, military fortification in Azerbaijan is obvious. Whereas Armenia builds customs posts and observatories, Azerbaijan constructs helicopter landing pads, airfields, rocket installations, and advanced radar stations. Barracks house dozens of troops at remote locations along the border. Azerbaijani forces have already seized territory within Armenia. President Ilham Aliyev, meanwhile, says that even Armenia’s capital Yerevan is Azerbaijani territory. The implication is clear: Azerbaijan prepares for a new war rather than a lasting peace.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan encourages such belligerence. In the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, he declared, “Like Armenia, Israel will fail too.” His description of the terror war as a struggle between “crescent and cross” reflects his true mindset. American and British diplomats may see Turkey’s army as an important NATO contingent, by Erdogan himself describes it as the “Army of Muhammad.” Both Erdogan and Aliyev regularly belittle Armenians, insult rivals by calling them Armenian, and describe Armenians as dogs or insects.

There are ample reasons why the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention has issued a “red flag alert” warning of the possibility of Azerbaijan perpetrating genocide against Armenia and Armenians. The question policymakers should ask is why after 30 years, the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict suddenly erupted and why Aliyev so confidently dismisses diplomacy.

Some pundits may cite developments in Turkey or Russia, but they miss the forest for the trees. The reason why beginning three years ago, Azerbaijan rebuffed diplomacy and turned instead to war was a change in the regional balance of power.

The Azerbaijani economy is a one-act show. SOCAR, its state oil company, works in conjunction with BP (formerly British Petroleum) to finance the Azerbaijani government. BP has little interest in the quality of Azerbaijan’s government or its descent into a brutal dictatorship. While ordinary Azerbaijanis wallow in poverty, the Aliyevs spend hundreds of millions of dollars on London real estate and billions of dollars on new weaponry.

Azerbaijan imported nearly 70% of its arsenal in recent years from Israel. In one extreme example, an Israeli drone company seeking to win an Azerbaijani contract demonstrated its system by attacking an Armenian military position. Earlier this month, Baku purchased a $1.2 billion Barak MX air defense system from Israel.

So long as Azerbaijan can undertake a military buildup to give itself both a qualitative and quantitative edge over its neighbors, the chance for peace in the region is zero. Military balance matters. While democratic states fund their people more than their militaries, Aliyev does the opposite. In effect, he diverts the revenue BP’s decades-old contract provides to finance aggression and perhaps even genocide. BP may not be legally responsible, but it is shortsighted. As Aliyev ignores his own public, the risk of assassination or even revolution increases in the long term. No ex-Soviet dictatorship expects a color revolution until the day it erupts.

Should Aliyev order an outright invasion of Armenia, the resulting disruption will likely end BP’s ability to transport its gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey. If Azerbaijan, overconfident in its gas windfall, seeks to end the oldest Christian state completely, BP may shrug its shoulders, but it will be impossible for BP to sidestep its reputational stain. Simply put, its contract enables Azerbaijan to purchase weaponry from Israel and Turkey to pursue genocide against Armenian Christians.

BP may want to sidestep politics, but Aliyev will not give it the chance. It is time for BP to tell Aliyev: Enough is enough, BP will not be party to any dictator’s genocidal ambition.

Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/is-bp-financing-armenias-destruction 

‘We won’t leave’: Armenians in Jerusalem push back against armed settlers

Nov 24 2023

A controversial real estate project threatens the world’s oldest Armenian diaspora community. But they refuse to move.

Old City, occupied East Jerusalem – After learning that settlers had returned to bulldoze in an area of the parking lot near his house in the Armenian Quarter, 80-year-old Garo Nalbandian, a professional photographer, joined a community sit-in in the area known as the Cows’ Garden with, of course, his trusty camera.

“We won’t leave,” a determined Nalbandian said gruffly in between snapping photos of Armenians on one side of the makeshift barricade and Israeli police and hired security on the other.

On October 26, the leader of the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem announced it would cancel a once-secret 2021 land lease deal with a real estate company that has alleged links to settler interests.

Since then, representatives from the company, Xana Gardens, have sent contractors, armed settlers and bulldozers to seize the land – which, along with the parking lot, includes Armenian Church property and the homes of Nalbandian and four other families.

The 1,600-year-old Armenian community is concentrated in the confines of the Armenian Quarter, occupying 14 percent of the Old City of Jerusalem at its southwestern corner.

“You know all your neighbours. If I don’t have milk at 1am, I just knock on their door. If I don’t have bread, I call my friend,” said Setrag Balian, 26, one of the leaders of the current movement to reverse the land deal.

“We take care of each other’s kids, of our families.”

This Armenian community – the oldest Armenian diaspora in the world – has seen its population decline from some 27,000 people a century ago to about 1,000 today.

Yet, with each attempted demolition, the community flocks in numbers at a moment’s notice, standing in the way of bulldozers while withstanding threats of arrest and armed intimidation.

Nalbandian’s family risks losing the home they’ve lived in since 1969, under the deal. Garo’s wife, Hrout, whose family has been in Jerusalem as far back as the 8th or 9th century, describes her sweet memories of the decades of getting engaged, married and raising kids in their modest one-storey home.

“Wherever we walk, it’s like we are in Armenia,” she said. “We have like a big family for the Armenians. After so many years … to become homeless, this is very hard.”

Garo’s studio in Wadi al-Joz is adorned with breathtaking photos he has taken of streets and cities around the world, from Athens to Alexandria. “But our beautiful Armenian Quarter is like nowhere else,” Garo remarked. “We must protect it.”

The community’s suspicions of Israeli settler aspirations in the Cows’ Garden started in 2019 when an Israeli company began construction on that same parking lot. At the time, the patriarchate told the community the aim was to renovate the lot, nothing more, but the parking lot’s April 2021 inauguration was curiously attended by Moshe Lion, the mayor of Jerusalem, and bedecked with enough Israeli flags to raise eyebrows.

The Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem – the community’s spiritual leadership, biggest employer and de facto landlord – struck a deal in July that year with Xana Gardens, a company incorporated that same month and led by the Australian Israeli investor Danny Rothman.

For two years, church leaders kept the community in the dark about the terms or even existence of the deal, despite persistent rumours. On April 1 this year, witnesses say, Rothman – also known in documents as Danny Rubenstein and Danny Kaufman – came to the Cows’ Garden parking lot with security, breaking security cameras and dismissing patriarchate guards, claiming he was taking over.

As years of rumours and suspicions about the deal spilled into the open, Setrag Balian and Hagop Djernazian, 23, led the younger generation of Armenians in fighting the land takeover. Balian, who works for his family’s ceramics business, joined Djernazian, a student at Hebrew University, for months of protests near Armenian Patriarch Nourhan Manougian’s offices.

“I see myself creating my future here,” said Djernazian, who also leads the Armenian Scouts. “I study here, I work here, I live here. And this is my plan to continue living here. The deal threatens our continued existence here.”

A report in July this year by an international team of Armenian lawyers finally exposed the deal publicly.

In it, the patriarchate agreed to give Xana Gardens a 49-year lease – with an option to renew another 49 – of the Cows’ Garden to build a luxury hotel.

Only Xana Gardens could cancel the agreement, which was for at least 11,500 square metres (123,785 square feet), but Xana could include “adjacent properties in the project”.

A plan submitted by Danny Rothman to the Jerusalem Municipality in May sought 14,500sq metres – not 11,500 – for the hotel, with a “target area” of 16,000sq metres (172,222sq feet), according to the report on the deal. Such an area would encompass 13 percent of the entire Armenian Quarter.

For this large swath of prized land on contested Mount Zion, Xana Gardens would pay only $300,000 in yearly rent.

Miran Krikorian, 40, a restaurant owner born and raised in the Armenian Quarter, says he pays nearly a quarter of that amount for only 30 square metres (323 square feet) he rents nearby for his small restaurant in the Christian Quarter.

“Either somebody got money under the table to pass this deal, or it’s just our people are so dumb that they don’t know the prices in this country,” said Krikorian.

For months, newly installed security guards from Xana Gardens threatened to ban community members from using the parking lot if they attended the protests, adding to threats church officials allegedly made towards individuals who protested. But the community refused to relent.

Pressure on the church to cancel the deal increased when Jordan and the Palestinian Authority withdrew their recognition of Patriarch Manougian in May, as they saw the deal threatening the status quo in the Old City, and amid concerns that stakeholders had not been consulted. The PA, Jordan and Israel are the three political authorities that endow recognition to the patriarchs in Jerusalem. The patriarchate did not respond to a request for comments.

“A lot of the younger generation had to learn through this ordeal why it’s important to stay in Jerusalem and why presence matters,” said Kegham Balian, Setrag’s brother who has written on the issue for Armenian news outlets.

Manougian’s decision to cancel the deal on October 26 put to rest the Armenian community’s internal divide on the issue. Later that same day, however, Israeli heavy machinery arrived at the disputed site to try to begin demolition.

Armenians rushed to the Cows’ Garden, standing in front of machinery that was tearing up a pavement and a wall separating the patriarchate parking lot from the community parking lot.

Ten days later, on November 5, representatives from Xana Gardens, including Rothman, returned. This time, they brought about 15 settlers with them, several of them armed and leading leashed dogs.

“This is our land,” they reportedly told local Armenians. “Leave now.”

But the Armenians refused to leave. A tense standoff ensued for hours, with more settlers arriving and yet more Armenians joining, eventually overwhelming the armed settlers.

Some of the settlers attempted to provoke community members, residents said. “You’re all goys, and when the Messiah comes, you will die,” one of them told them.

“I will get you, one by one!” George Warwar, a Christian Arab from Jaffa who had been the face of Xana Gardens on the ground in the months leading up to the encounter, reportedly shouted.

This was the first time most in the community had encountered Rothman, who, when approached by journalists, has refused to speak to the media. According to Setrag Balian, Rothman, who normally lives overseas, told police during the standoff the community wanted to cancel the deal because he is Jewish.

“It’s because now you’re bringing armed settlers and showing the true face of your company,” Setrag Balian recalled telling Rothman that day. “It’s because this deal is not a good deal for the patriarchate.

“We’ve lived with our Jewish Quarter neighbours for 50 years without any major incidents,” he continued.

The act of peaceful defiance forced Rothman and his group to withdraw after several hours.

“Just by the look on Danny Rothman’s face,” said Kegham Balian, “you could tell he wasn’t expecting the events to unfold like they did that day.”

Negotiations are under way for the church to provide greater transparency regarding the administration of community lands and affairs, a key demand from protesters.

With the internal divide on the land agreement now set aside – and the war in Gaza drawing the world’s attention – Armenian residents say Xana Gardens’ tactics are shifting to outright armed confrontation.

“They thought it would scare us,” said Setrag Balian of the armed threats. “But it didn’t scare us – it empowered us. We are more united than ever.”

Manougian, often criticised by Armenians for an absence in leadership, has been present during standoffs this month. A November 16 communique by the Armenian Patriarchate described the situation as “possibly the greatest existential threat of its 16-century history”, condemning the 2021 contract as “tainted with false representation, undue influence, and unlawful benefits”.

Armenians fear their small, tight-knit community won’t survive if they lose the Cows’ Garden, which comprises much of the Armenian Quarter outside the Armenian Convent – a private area originally intended for clergy, but now housing many Armenians who moved there about a century ago in the aftermath of the Armenian Genocide.

The prized land is seen as pivotal to Israeli settler plans, as a long-term lease would complete a path for Jewish worshippers to cross the Old City from Jaffa Gate to the Jewish Quarter without crossing Christian properties, following previous purchases of the New Imperial Hotel and Petra Hotel along that route.

Since the first armed confrontation by Rothman and settlers, Armenians have been taking shifts at the Cows’ Garden, where two bulldozers are parked.

Contractors hired by Xana Gardens attempted to bulldoze the area early in the morning on November 12 and 13. Both times, the community sprang into action, putting up a metal barricade on the 12 and, on the 13, standing in a bulldozer’s path.

The community has remained nonviolent throughout the confrontations, at the behest of movement leaders like Balian and Djernazian.

As demolition attempts by the company continue – including an incident on November 15 in which Palestinians hired by Xana Gardens to dismantle the barricade left when they realised they had been hired by settlers – the community remains resolute.

During the standoffs, police threatened to arrest Armenians, and several have been arrested for transgressions like shouting, according to community members. They were released the same day, but banned by police from returning to the area.

Police have attempted to enforce the bulldozing efforts – although they have failed so far with Xana Gardens unable to present the required permits – before the land deal finds its way to court to be adjudicated, as stakeholders expect to happen.

A rotating group of Armenians now sleeps in the Cows’ Garden at night, and community members provide volunteers with food, tea, couches and even a tent for 24/7 surveillance.

“This has to do with the future of my kid,” said Krikorian of his four-year-old boy, his eyes welling with tears.

“If I think about all those things that my kid is going to lose, like this community, like being with his friends … I grew up in that, and I want him to have the same experiences.

“If I don’t do anything now, I’m going to lose it for him in the future.”