The US and Israel have long claimed to have destroyed Iran’s air defenses, air force, navy and leadership, but the international press is discussing Iran’s latest strikes on the US-British military base on Diego Garcia Island, some 4,000 km away.

Iran has reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at the military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. Tehran called this a success, although it is also noted that one of the missiles fell into the sea, and an SM-3 interceptor missile was launched from an American destroyer in the direction of the second. In other words, as a result, none of them reached the target. However, the “Военный Осведимитель” telegram channel writes that this is an important moment in the course of the conflict.

“The problem is that for many years Iran maintained a unilateral limitation of the range of ballistic missiles – 2000 km. This was done in order to demonstrate the “absence of aggressive intentions”, “the absence of a global threat from Iran” and generally “not to complicate the negotiation background”. However, the former leader of Iran, who approved that limit, has been killed and is already going to war.

Iran originally had missiles capable of a range of 4,000 km. For example, missiles of the “Khoramshahr” family have a standard range of 2,000 km, but with a 1.5-2 ton warhead.

It is not necessary to develop a new missile. you can install a significantly lighter warhead, slightly change the mode of operation of the engine, and the missile will fly much further. Thus, the North Korean relative of Khoramshahr, the Hwasong-10 missile, demonstrated the ability to fly 3,400 km back in 2016.

And nothing prevented them from preparing something else in their warehouses, they could not test it, or test it and not announce it, so as not to “spoil the negotiation background”. They can also be used for space program needs rather than military. In any case, the geography of Iranian strikes is expanding, and the use of the existing technological stock is not restrained by various self-limitations,” writes the military telegram channel.

The analysis notes that, for comparison, the US has another similar base on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean. According to the publication, the same North Korea successfully tested the Hwasong-12 missile in 2017 to hit Guam in case of war, and created a nuclear warhead for it.

“It has also conducted multiple test launches over Japan at an appropriate distance (3,700 km) on a conventional trajectory (as well as a suspended trajectory to demonstrate that the missile can also fly further with a recalculated conventional trajectory). This was done in order to show the possibility of access and the determination to strike if necessary, without any self-limitation, even in order not to “complicate the negotiation background”…” the channel notes.

168.amin the conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the Diego Garcia base is an important target for Iran, because it is from there that the US bombards Iran and it is there that the key logistics point of the US Navy is located. Therefore, according to him, it will be difficult to overestimate the importance of hitting it.

“However, as of now, even without hitting that island, Iran has solved a problem for itself by showing that it has long-range missiles that many had no idea about. This is even more impressive in the background of statements that Iran’s potential has been eliminated. Therefore, even without hitting a woman, this is considered a success in Iran. In addition, this step shows the military determination and the policy of not avoiding the escalation of the war, which is no less important. This also introduces unpredictability into the war, because if there are missiles of such a range, they can be directed in other directions as well. Therefore, this is something that the USA and Iran cannot ignore,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

He also described another news in this war situation with Iran as very surprising.

“The US Department of Finance partially lifted the sanctions on Iranian oil for one month, allowing the purchase and sale of Iranian oil in order to reduce the prices of energy carriers. Because of the war, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, shaking the global energy market. As a result of all this, the US is lifting the existing sanctions against Tehran, something that Tehran demanded during the peace talks and could not agree to.

In fact, Washington was forced to make such a decision, and earlier it had made a similar decision regarding Russian oil. Everyone in the world knew about the consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz, why this was not calculated by the US is incomprehensible, because this forced step to lift sanctions against Iran during the war works against the US itself,” the analyst said.

He believes that the most important thing here is that the US initial calculation and hopes were not justified, after which everything went according to the Iranian plan.

“The American initial plan was a quick action with quick results, because the USA probably understood well that it is not possible to have a long war with such a country at such a distance. Iran is a country that has at least many levers in the region. I think that Iran’s attacks on the Qatar oil refinery were also important in this last chain. Everything shows that the US has lost control over the processes, as a result of which it is resorting to highly undesirable and forced steps,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

He believes that these developments in the region and neighboring regions still strengthen the role of Iran.

“This applies to the South Caucasus as well. However, the war continues, it is too early for final conclusions,” he said.

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After the government session on March 19, Nikol Pashinyan briefed the opposition forces again accused in provoking a war and even specified a clear deadline. “All these forces are acting from the positions of peace revision, which due to this fact means an inevitable war, moreover, not long after the elections, maximally in the fall. I analyze the texts, right? They are preparing a war with grave consequences.”

Why September again, a “strategic deal” with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani threats, availability of intelligence data based on some unseen circumstances and an assessment of the probability of war operations, or psychological pressure on the Armenian society before the elections?

Basically, all 3 versions have the right to life. But first let’s talk about the last one. The public has hard memories related to the month of September: the 44-day war in Artsakh began On September 27, 2020, the September battles took place on September 13-14, 2022, in 2023, Artsakh was completely depopulated again on September 19-20.

In other words, on the one hand, the current government of RA does not go to “Yerablur” on September 27 or September 19 to pay tribute to the memory of the victims, and to forget the struggle for Artsakh, on the other hand, it is playing on the public’s memory and emotional strings. What is this if not psychological terror?

Now what about the capabilities of the authorities to predict the war and not only, first of all, just a few episodes in the context of the 44-day period, because we have covered it in detail on different occasions.

Thus, the exact date of the war became clear 2 days after its beginning: On September 25, 2020, and here it is enough to remind only on September 26, 2020 According to Pashinyan’s family newspaper, “Armenian “freelancers” of Azerbaijani propaganda”. the article where he blames the opposition for not believing in him and believing in Aliyev, excluding the imminent war and Turkey’s direct participation in it.

“…Allegedly, Azerbaijan used those two years to strengthen the front line and prepare for war, while our authorities were busy fighting internal political opponents, and now they are preparing a propaganda ground to involve Turkey directly in a new war, and we are consistently spoiling our relations with Russia, therefore, we have serious security problems and we must get rid of these authorities as soon as possible.

Since when did Armenia begin to believe more not in its own authorities, but in the President of Azerbaijan? and: legally speaking, what is the name of spreading the enemy’s propaganda in one’s own country and justifying its legitimacy?”, the article states.

And nothing that after the July battles at that time Hulusi Akar, head of the Turkish Defense Department, to Armenia had threatened take countermeasures to: “The death of Azerbaijani soldiers will not go unpunished.”

At the same time, Aliyev made a clear demand from the UN chair: RA should withdraw its troops from the “occupied territories”.

Nikol Pashinyan, in his turn, gave an interview to Petros Ghazaryan, which was never broadcast in its entirety, nor was it handed over. At the trial of the 44-day investigative commission, as promised.

And after the war, Nikol Pashinyan put the responsibility of predicting it and even changing his mind on the “relevant institutions”.

Meanwhile, still in 2019 in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia warned that the next war will be bigger than the April 2016 war.

And from here I asked Pashinyan: legally, what is it called or what are the consequences of not only hiding the fact of an impending war from the public of one’s country, but also not preparing for it?

And on March 20, Andranik Kocharyan, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Defense and Security of the National Assembly, on the air of “News Radio” allegedly tried to “stick” the former, considering the contents of the arsenal as the reason for the defeat in the 44-day war, from helmets to the ammunition supplied by Davit Galstyan (Boss David), in particular, the “junk missiles”.

In other words, Andranik Kocharyan repeated Nikol Pashinyan, who years ago in the National Assembly had announced թե՝ “For the first time, a few days after the war, I learned that there is a problem with helmets and body armor in the army”, to which the former Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Davit Tonoyan responded from the detention center, saying that «weapons and military equipment, ներառյալ՝ The demand for helmets and body armor was presented in detail in the “Weapons and Military Equipment Development Program”. which was last reaffirmed by the RA government during the tenure of Nikol Pashinyan»:

168.amthe wrote that Pashinyan approved a plan for the development of the armed forces without reading and understanding.

In other words, even if there was a problem in the warehouse, it is in the area of ​​responsibility of the head of the country and the supreme commander, also: “On Defense” RA law according to

In this context, it should be noted that military-technical in criminal cases Pashinyan has not yet proven his political justice, if not to say that some accusations they have disappeared. 

For example, in 2022 On October 24, Nikol Pashinyan announced during his visit to the Anti-Corruption Committee: “Plates were removed from rockets with terrible names, in which there is gold.”

Like earlier statement Pashinyan had done in 2021. At the end of May, during the meeting held at the pre-election headquarters of the “Civil Agreement” party of Ajapnyak administrative district, “There are people in Armenia, an officer, who removes the plate from the S-300 to sell the gold inside for 30-40 thousand drams.

Let’s leave aside the fact that Pashinyan knew this before the war and may not have done anything technically, moreover, our studies showed that there was an accused official, and who he is, the prosecutor’s office kept secret, and they could not find out the identity of the thief, so the article was suspended in this regard. This is also for the information of Andranik Kocharyan.

Let’s return to the main topic of the article and move to 2022 September battles during which, by the way, Suren Papikyan was the Minister of Defense of Armenia during the operations, the Armenian side lost more than 220 victims, according to various reports, we lost 50 positions, the Azerbaijani armed forces, according to official data, In Jermuk area crashed into the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia with a front 8.5 km wide and: up to 7.5 km deep, as of that day, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were 4.5 km away from the Jermuk gates.

And today, when Suren Papikyan considers the statements of the opponents to be belligerent, did he consider the steps and statements of Baku prior to the September battles to be such, and they were? Moreover, on the very day of the September battles, Pashinyan admitted the following.

“Perhaps it will seem strange to many that Azerbaijan thus expresses its dissatisfaction with the results of the 44-day war. I realize that I am saying something very strange now. Now I can’t say many details…”

Shortly after this, Nikol Pashinyan recognized Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan in Prague, well, then already in September 2023, Artsakh was depopulated. And the RA authorities said that the RA Armed Forces cannot help the Armed Forces to avoid a new war, to avoid getting involved in another war, and there is still a question: what was written in the RA Armed Forces deployment plan? In this case, the remarkable thing is that first there is a promise to Azerbaijan, and then it is already announced that war will not be allowed. Isn’t it clear that if you promised or said something, if you don’t do it, they will get it by force? We can do it in the 44-day war such details to find though of course it would start one day.

Today, Baku demands to remove the Declaration of Independence from the current RA constitution, which allegedly contains a territorial claim to Azerbaijan, and Nikol Pashinyan considers it conflicting. But at the same time, the constitution of Azerbaijan will continue to operate, which, according to Pashinyan himself, presents territorial claims In relation to RA, de jure Baku demands About 60 percent of the RA territory. In other words, there is both a territorial claim and a reason for the activation of the conflict, and what is Pashinyan going to do, if in practice Aliyev decides to implement the constitution of his country, hand it over peacefully or by war? It’s a logical question, isn’t it? The RA citizen might want to know the answer to this question clearly and objectively. We repeat: the constitution of conflict-ridden Azerbaijan will not be changed.

Why does Pashinyan not consider this as war-mongering, but he is looking for a war-starter in the words of the opposition, while forgetting that when the opposition circles in the context of the 44-day period, his own pre-war steps and statements, including in the context of the July battles, considered the war “brought on”, CP members considered it unfair and even “reported” against RA, although they said on different occasions that Baku had the UN resolutions, which they were guided by in September 2020.

Let us add that Pashinyan confessed In connection with the Azerbaijani invasions in May 2021, that The army was given a political order not to fight, because in a month there were extraordinary NA elections, and they promised peace, which collapsed in a few months, in 2021. with the November battles. 

Continuing the topic, let’s add that in February of the current year 168.amthe had written About Baku’s fears regarding the outcome of the Armenian National Assembly elections, in particular, that Aliyev’s close circle believes that with Pashinyan’s government, yes, the peace agenda is established but not irreversible.

“Because political forces may come and stop these processes, because they see it differently. If the current process drags on for years, the peace agenda will be transformed, for better or for worse, that is another matter. But it is clear that it will be necessary to develop new mechanisms, especially if the referendum fails.” Azeri political scientist Farhad Mammadov also announced in RA.

And on March 20, during the live broadcast on Facebook, Pashinyan for the first time this is the idea to change the negotiated document, and this is exactly what he considers warlike.

“Even if we go with the most optimistic forecast, to reopen the established peace, means to create an opportunity to transform all the content that we finally fixed as a result of the negotiation process. On a theoretical level, we can consider that this content can become better, but on the same theoretical level, this content can become worse. But it is much more likely that this content can completely collapse. As this simple, most neutral statistical enumeration shows, it is two against one. There is one chance that the content can get better, and there are two chances that the content can get worse. In either case, the logic of development leads to war. We must record this very clearly,” Pashinyan stated.

Of course, this also speaks of the fact that for Pashinyan it is not peace that is important, but that it should be in his hands.

Referring to the thesis of the need for guarantors by the opposition, Pashinyan noted that this opens the door to bring peacekeepers into our region and our country.

Of course, this is, to put it mildly, ridiculous, not only because the US presence of one or another level in RA territory and region is planned by TRIPP, but also because it was Pashinyan who invited RA peacekeepers and Russian border guards to the region, then stationed them in some places, and after some time refused their service. Not to mention EU observers yet.

Facts are a powerful thing. So, Pashinyan will do well to present his peace agenda without blackmail and the threat of war, which has failed once. And the state should always have preparations and counter-scenarios for the war scenario in its vault.

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If CP is conducting an intra-party campaign, why does the Public Television, which works at the expense of taxpayers, cover it, but not the rest of the parties? It is very difficult to block information in this age, but the various wings of the opposition should be asked why they are playing their game. If he eats “perashki”, why do you cover it, put it on your pages, even ironically? Any move by the government should be despised. 168TV’s “ expressed such an opinion during the program civil technologist Karen Kocharyan.

“The authorities have their media, they will show all that, report on it, praise it, that’s their task. Opposition, you advance your agenda, dictate yours. The problem of the opposition in the last five years, with the exception of one and a half months of the Sacred Movement, was that the agenda was dictated by the government.

The opposition was not proactive, but reactive, that is, it followed the agenda dictated by the government.

The opposition must be proactive, and in that case, naturally, a lot will be muted,” said the public figure.

“For example, “Strong Armenia” is able to dictate its agendas, it does not answer to the government, it dictates itself and moves forward. He does not say traitor, landlord, they present their economic and security plans to their own faces, to specialists. They even do humor in a very interesting way.

For example, it was a surprise when Narek Karapetyan buys a raisin bun, it surprises in a good way. Here it is clearly seen that they are following a non-standard path,” the civil technologist noted.

According to the public figure, the opposition can, for example, remind what Pashinyan promised in 2018, what he lied to, what he didn’t do, what factories and productions he should have opened, all of which are, of course, a 100% bubble and do not exist. “Say that when you go and criticize people that, for example, you made asphalt, you should counter that it was made with taxpayers’ money, and that is what you were appointed or elected there for. There are so many issues on the agenda to talk about, that all the wings of the opposition should bring it all to everyone’s attention every day, like a soap opera.”

“It is good that the opposition goes in several lines, because any opposition must work on its electorate to be able to explain that the voter must be at the polling station on the day of voting.

First of all, of course, this is the business of political forces, but also of all those who are concerned about the future of this state and their children. As for social surveys, in most cases the respondents are afraid, avoid, do not want to be seen, therefore, these data are often not reliable. Instead of the opposition falling behind each other, it is better to fall behind its electorate, to work with its electorate.

Communicate with people, try to understand what they want, who they want, at least try to understand that character,” said Karen Kocharyan.

Details in the video.

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Kaya Kalas, who has an “anti-Russian maniacal fixation”, sends the “hybrid group” to Armenia in order to prepare a legal and political basis for discrediting the parliamentary elections, but in the late evening of June 7, when Nikol Pashinyan gets an “unpleasant image” with the results of the elections, the state-centered forces of Armenia “should not care” about the conclusion of the “hybrids” and the kayakalas and funderlains standing behind it. About this 168 TVof Revue given to the program in the interview said military expert Davit Jamalyanspeaking on the famous topic of “hybrid attacks”.

According to the military expert, all the state structures of Armenia, including the power structures, are controlled by Western centers today, and the March 10 statement of the Foreign Intelligence Service is also placed in this context. the statement Regarding the attempts of external interference in the electoral processes of Armenia.

“That statement, which, in fact, is just a disgrace, is inherently anti-Russian, but our ties with Russia are so close that they don’t even have the courage to openly state where this “hybrid attack” allegedly came from, but we understand that they are hitting the Russians in the name of this. Why, because the steering wheel of all those structures is actually not in our hands. The same head of the Intelligence Service was trained in Britain for a long time and was appointed the head of the Intelligence Service. Now, it doesn’t take a lot of intelligence to understand that someone trained in Britain comes and is appointed as the head of the Intelligence Service. It is clear that this service is under very serious British influence,” commented Davit Jamalyan.

The military expert also added that the well-known statement of Kaya Kalas, head of EU diplomacy, about deploying a “hybrid rapid reaction group” in Armenia proves that “Armenia has turned into a European colony” under the current government.

“That statement of Kaya Kalas suggests something else, that under the current government, Armenia has turned into a British colony, you can say, a European colony, you can say, but in any case, it has turned into a quasi-state that has completely lost its sovereignty, because who are the members of that “hybrid group” and what will they do?,” says Davit Jamalyan.

According to the expert, Kalas, an Estonian by nationality, who was the Prime Minister of Estonia, embodies the concentration of Baltic anti-Russian sentiment and has a “maniacal fixation” to harm Russia in every possible way.

“Kalas and Von der Leyen, two women with an anti-Russian maniacal fixation, not only curse the father of Europe, because there is serious opposition in the European zone itself. some of them believe that normal trade should be done with Russia. But they are not interested in Armenia in any other way, apart from building an anti-Russian platform,” added the expert.

According to Jamalyan, they, realizing that Pashinyan’s rating is very low and the probability of his re-election is almost zero, are preparing the legal and political basis for discrediting the future elections from the beginning.

“They will bring those “hybrids” who at some X moment, when an unpleasant picture is obtained for Nikol late in the evening of [June] 7, they will announce that the “elections are rigged because there was a hybrid attack” allegedly from Russia, when that “hybrid group” will announce at some X moment that the elections are not legitimate because, you don’t know, there were allegedly some influences from Russia, for the sake of Kaya Kalas sends them here, our state-centric forces, I’m saying it a bit harshly, but they should care about the conclusions of that “hybrid group” and the point of view of all kinds of Kayakalas and Funderleins standing behind it, and that’s it, power will be formed from the positions of our interests”– said Davit Jamalyan.

Let’s remind that the head of EU diplomacy Kaya Kalas at the press conference held on March 16 announced, that “the European Union, following Armenia’s request, will send a hybrid rapid response team to help counter threats in the run-up to the elections.” Kaya Kalas also noted. “Supporting the resilience of neighborhood democracy remains important. We will not leave Armenia alone to rebuke foreign interference. Democracies under pressure can count on Europe.”

Details in the video.

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After coming to power, the opposition must first of all stop the war and only after that try to achieve a decent peace, because Azerbaijan continues to wage war against Armenia by hybrid and other means. Expressed this opinion 168TVof Revue on the air of the program civil technologist Vigen Hakobyanspeaking about the June 7 parliamentary elections in Armenia.

“We are now in the hybrid phase of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war, we are not in the phase of peace, but in the phase of a hybrid war, that is, the “hot phase” of the war has now simply been replaced by a hybrid one, which, unfortunately, can be replaced at any time, and at the request of Azerbaijan, by the “hot phase” with which Nikol Pashinyan is now scaring us all. Therefore, the main goal of the opposition should be to come to power and first of all to stop the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, that is, to establish peace, not to talk about bringing an alternative, dignified and different peace. Now a real war is going on between Azerbaijan and Armenia. We must understand that there is no peace, there is war, there are just different forms of war,” Vigen Hakobyan thinks.

According to the political scientist, at the moment we are witnessing the formation of four opposition formats in the political field: “Strong Armenia” led by Samvel Karapetyan, “Armenia” alliance led by the second president of RA, “Proposal to Armenia” initiated by Tsarukyan and the union of “Unity Wings”, “HayaVote” and “Shant” alliance. So far, it is not known whether the Republican Party will participate.

“When talking about these four, it is very important that, tactically, being separate associations, they can be perceived by the public as forces strategically hitting the same goal and hitting the same nail.

In other words, the main goal should be to deprive the current government of its power. The opposition voter, regardless of who he prefers, should understand that as a result of all this, a single opposition pole can be formed, which will be able to deprive the “Civil Pact” of power with joint efforts.

And as for the question in which case the opposition can win, I think that the opposition has quite a good chance to solve its main problem this time,” commented Vigen Hakobyan.

He evaluates the current realities in the following way, that in the case of Pashinyan’s team, in their own perception, keeping the power is an ontological problem in all aspects, and they use every effort and resource to keep the power, and if changing the power is also an ontological problem for the collective opposition, then there will be good opportunities to achieve victory.

“For both the government and the opposition, these elections should be of an ontological nature, that is, no one should have any illusions that if there is a mere mandate struggle, what happened in the last 5 years will continue,” Vigen Hakobyan believes.

According to the civil technologist, the possible “Gyumri 2” scenario of post-election developments, which was given that name by the light hand of the government of the day, reveals their concerns or just fears.

“Many who did not even consider this possibility, did not believe, began to believe, because they saw that the government was quite concerned about such a prospect, moreover, it revealed its fears. Of course, they wanted to solve a different problem, trying to connect everyone with the well-known narratives about the “formers”, says the civil technologist.

According to Vigen Hakobyan, scaring people with a new “September war” is a psychological trick by Pashinyan, because, as we remember, there was a war in September, the 44-day war started in 2020. on September 27.

“From the point of view of political technologies, Nikol Pashinyan does not do anything unexpected, because it was clear from the beginning that one of the main theses of Nikol Pashinyan’s pre-election campaign will be “peace or war?”, that is, he will try to convince that “if I am in power, there will be peace, as they have not fired in the last year and a half.”

In other words, he will try to sell the illusion of peace and in contrast to that, he will say that all the others are “war parties” and his target will be mainly Armenian mothers and families. It is another war blackmail that Nikol Pashinyan has been using in all his propaganda narratives since 2020. A significant part of the 2021 campaign was spent under that mood. Now the hot phase of the pre-election campaign is starting, and it is just more emphatically manipulating it and trying to use the statements that the opposition did not make to support this thesis.

In general, the “September War” is a psychological trick, because there was a war in September, that is, when he says “September War”, associations immediately arise, and many people think that if he says that there will be a war in September, then he definitely knows something. He could even say the date as a political-technological trick to sound more convincing. It is just an artificial statement. It could have been said with the same success in October, it’s just that September is associated with war, just as the month of May was associated with victories for decades,” explained the expert.

According to the geotechnical expert, Nikol Pashinyan’s nervous behavior is also due to the fact that he underestimates what external resources are there to support him, and all his analyzes show that he can only rely on Azerbaijan and Turkey. According to the geotechnical expert, what annoys Pashinyan the most is that for him “it is very uncertain what he is capable of and what tactics Russia will choose in relation to these elections”.

Full interview in the video.

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