In recent hours, many publications have appeared, which prove that the Hormuz crisis is most likely moving towards settlement. At least, it seems that some solution has been found.

Let me remind you that Iran insists on its right to collect fees from all the ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there is an important circumstance here. the strait has two banks and the second bank belongs to Oman.

The Sultanate of Oman probably wouldn’t mind having another source of income, but doesn’t want to escalate the situation and doesn’t charge any fees for the cruises for now. Especially since the current situation gives Oman the role of a special mediator.

Neither side wants to set a precedent for imposing mandatory tolls on ships passing through the strait, as this could undermine the existing system of international agreements, have a negative impact on the global fuel market, and have far-reaching consequences.

Instead, it is proposed to create a fund that will be financed by the Gulf countries and the European states using this route. The money collected will be used to finance the cost of navigation, environmental protection and search and rescue operations. A similar model operates in the Strait of Malacca.

Axios writes that the US, Iran and Oman are close to signing a temporary agreement on Hormuz for a period of 60 days, and the White House may announce it soon.

According to the temporary agreement, ships entering the Gulf will pass through the northern (Iranian) route, and those leaving the Gulf through the southern (Omani) route. At the same time, the parties will start demining the water area and negotiate a permanent agreement.

In general, there is a circumstance in these positive developments, and according to publications, the circles of the Iranian government with the most rigid stance have not yet agreed on this agreement.

Let’s hope that a peaceful resolution over Hormuz will be reached and favorable conditions will be created for final negotiations on a lasting peace in the region.

Former RA Deputy Defense Minister Artak Zakaryan

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Everyone is obliged to use their visa without violations.

This is reported by the US Embassy in Armenia.

“If you stay in the United States longer than the prescribed period, it may lead to a permanent ban on entering the United States in the future.

Consular officials have access to entry and exit information, and your violations will not go unnoticed,” the message reads.

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Armenian Ambassador to the USA Narek Mkrtchyan hosted US Deputy Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs Kate Dillon and Deputy Secretary of State for Professional and Cultural Exchanges Shannon Sprenger at the embassy.

The embassy informs about this.

During the meeting, the possibilities of expanding Armenian-American ties in the field of public diplomacy were discussed. In particular, the perspectives of implementation of joint programs and expansion of cooperation in the fields of education, culture, and sports were discussed.

During the conversation, the importance of joint initiatives in new directions of mutual interest was also emphasized, with the aim of identifying new opportunities and strengthening the existing partnership.

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On August 7, at 4:00 p.m., in the court of general jurisdiction of the first instance of Armavir region (Vagharshapat, Surb Grigor Lusavorcchi street 15, courtroom No. 1), H.E. The first session of the preliminary hearings of the criminal case against Karekin the Second Catholicos of All Armenians and six bishops who are members of the Supreme Spiritual Council, lawyer Ara Zohrabyan wrote.

Judge Hakob Manukyan will examine the case.

The lawyer claims that the Catholicos of All Armenians and the Holy Fathers in Armenia who are involved in the case will participate in the first court session.

“The intervention of the state in the decisions of the Catholicos of All Armenians regarding the recall of the diocesan leader and the deprivation of the bishop’s status is a violation of the fundamental principle of Church autonomy, state-Church constitutional relations and religious freedom and a shameful historical event.

The Armenian Patriarch is being prosecuted for fulfilling his ecclesiastical and canonical duty.

In this criminal case, the court will examine not only the accusations presented by individual persons, but another important question: can the secular power invade the internal life of the Church and criminalize the exercise of the canonical authority of the Catholicos of All Armenians,” Zohrabyan wrote.

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During this period, Azerbaijan is doing two things: on the one hand, arming and modernization of the army, and on the other hand, incessant diplomatic pressure on Armenia.

Apart from them, the other one, which has a longer-term goal – creation of interconnection with Armenia, by which Armenia will be significantly dependent on Azerbaijan and Turkey in terms of logistics, economy, and energy…

Their strategic goal is to irreversibly deprive Armenia of the opportunity to establish a military-political balance in the medium term, and in the long term to deprive Armenia of the opportunity to make sovereign, self-interested, regional and global decisions of its own accord.

This is what is on the table today…

P.S. Of course, Adana kebab eaters don’t really care how much Armenian blood was in Adana kebab in Adana in 1909.

Political scientist Ara Poghosyan

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The recent statements of the Azerbaijani President’s assistant, Hikmet Hajiyev, once again emphasized that Baku not only closely follows the internal political developments of Armenia, but also sometimes formulates clearer and more confident assessments about them than the Yerevan authorities.

In a conversation with Turkish journalists, Hajiyev openly welcomed the “Real Armenia” concept put forward by Nikol Pashinyan, describing it as a positive and fundamental approach. Moreover, he stated that he expects the reflection of this concept in the new Constitution of Armenia. At the same time, formally emphasizing that Azerbaijan does not interfere in Armenia’s internal affairs, Hajiyev reaffirmed Baku’s long-standing precondition, linking the signing of the peace treaty with the amendment of the Armenian Constitution and the removal of the reference to the Declaration of Independence from the preamble.

Another statement of Hajiyev was even more remarkable. according to him, signals were received in Baku that the process of adoption of the new Constitution will start in Armenia in the near future. Jeyhun Bayramov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, reaffirmed the same demand.

Where does Baku’s confidence come from?

Here the key question arises: where did Baku get that trust?

Naturally, Hajiyev did not reveal the source of his information. However, it is difficult to ignore the fact that immediately after the parliamentary elections, on June 14, Hajiyev arrived in Dilijan, where he held talks with the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan. The content of that meeting remains secret to this day. If Baku received “impulses” from that meeting, it means that through a closed diplomatic channel, more concrete impulses were given from Yerevan than what is presented to the public.

Parliamentary Arithmetic as a Major Obstacle

While Azerbaijan confidently talks about the start of the constitutional process, the society of Armenia is still not clearly informed about the content of the new Constitution that the government is going to present. Moreover, the ruling “Civil Contract” party has only 64 seats in the National Assembly.

A constitutional amendment or the initiation of a referendum requires at least two-thirds of the total membership of the National Assembly, about 70 votes. Without the support of the opposition “Strong Armenia” (29 mandates) or the “Armenia” alliance (12 mandates), the process is legally blocked. Baku either ignores this mathematical reality or consciously bypasses it.

Pashinyan’s own schedule and its uncertainty

In July 2026, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the draft of the new Constitution would be published by the end of the year. However, until today, the public has neither the content of the project, nor the schedule of public discussion, nor a clear mechanism of how it will be put to a referendum without a constitutional majority.

Baku talks about the “near future”, while Yerevan still doesn’t even have a public road map. This contrast is particularly striking.

Decision of the Constitutional Court

In 2024, the Constitutional Court of Armenia gave a “narrow interpretation” of the preamble to the Constitution, confirming that the reference to the Declaration of Independence does not include all national goals and does not create territorial claims in the existing articles.

Yerevan presented this decision as a legal solution. Baku, however, continues to demand the complete removal of the reference to the Declaration of Independence. Hajiyev’s trust, therefore, is based not on a legal but on a political claim, which ignores the already existing Armenian legal position.

Dual use of the concept of “Real Armenia”.

Pashinyan presents the concept as an internal state-building project, Armenia with internationally recognized borders. Baku interprets it as a political decision that has already been made, which should be enshrined in the Constitution. Hajiyev does not simply “welcome” the concept, but turns it into a proof of fulfillment of Baku’s precondition. This shows how domestic political discourse is shaped by external pressure.

The political risk of the referendum

Even if somehow it succeeds in initiating a referendum, it may fail if the public perceives it as a fulfillment of Azerbaijan’s demand. Baku demands not only the amendment of the Constitution, but also the “approval of the people”. Hajiyev’s trust can be based on the calculation that Pashinyan will try to hold the referendum even at the cost of systemic fraud, or, on the contrary, that the failure will give Baku new leverage.

Regional restrictions

The new regional realities should also be taken into account. In recent months, Iran’s more active involvement in the South Caucasus and Tehran’s clearer position can create serious restrictions on the way to the implementation of Azerbaijan’s more aggressive agenda. That circumstance can also have a significant impact on upcoming developments.

The main question

Today, the main question is not even whether Armenia will change the Constitution or not. The main question is, why does Baku talk about this process with more confidence than the Armenian government does with its own public? If Azerbaijan really possesses information that is not presented to the Armenian society, then we are dealing with a non-standard situation, which requires comprehensive, clear and public clarifications from the Armenian government.

Political scientist Suren Surenyants

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