Category: News

In the conditions of summer and political vacation, seemingly unrelated but actually dialectically related processes take place in Armenia. In the authoritarian country with the label of “democratic bastion”, the process of nationalization of private property is proceeding with great momentum.

After the elections, the government activated the issue of the nationalization of Armenia’s electric grids (ETR) owned by Samvel Karapetyan, along with the political reprisal against the head of the “Prosperous Armenia” party Gagik Tsarukyan, the process of nationalization of “Araratcement” and other companies, owned by him, began.

This government will not stop and, most likely, will continue the nationalization parade in the near future, providing scenes of “restoration of justice” for the hungry masses, money, big money for the government. In other conditions, it would be relatively possible to consider what is happening as a redistribution of large capital, which in one way or another is specific to countries like Armenia. But the problem is that while under the name of nationalization, the government violently seizes the business owned by the people, the process of denationalization of the state is taking place in parallel, in the sense of the content and functions inherent to the state.

The state administration system, all law enforcement agencies are no longer unconditionally serving the ruling party and its leader, as in authoritarian regimes.

But in this matter it also differs from classical examples in the sense that the beneficiary of state denationalization is not only and not so much the ruling regime, but its external sponsors: the collective West, directly, Azerbaijan and Turkey, still indirectly, but no less. As a result, large businesses owned by Armenian businessmen are “nationalized” by a government whose beneficiaries are outside of Armenia, that is, these businesses will never become the property of the Armenian state, but of all those, perhaps not on paper, who sponsor today’s processes. The nationalization of business takes place in parallel with the process of denationalization of society, which has been going on for several years. The government started the fight against the big Armenian capital long before and continues the fight against the national capital. from identity to symbols, from the Armenian Apostolic Church to historical memory.

These are interrelated processes and are different parts of one overall project. Deprived of Armenianness, anti-national society, nationalized large capital in the conditions of a stateless state with all possible external beneficiaries and shareholders. But the important thing is, of course, rest. Not only summer, but also political, which, if continued for a few more seasons, will lead to the relaxation of the state. Final rest.   

Harutyun Avetisyan

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“LUYS” Foundation analyzed the RA government’s 2027-2029. medium-term expenditure plan.

Thus.

2027-2029 of the RA Government. According to the medium-term expenditure plan (MDP), in 2026 The government predicts economic growth of 5.4%, which should gradually accelerate in the medium term and reach 6.1% in 2029.

Meanwhile, forecasts of international organizations regarding economic growth in the medium-term sector continue to remain conservative to a considerable extent. This proves that the MDP–One of the most worrying provisions is the optimistic nature of economic growth forecasts.

Moreover, the arguments presented in the paper for optimism are mostly related to such factors, whose influence is already waning, or their implementation dates have been regularly postponed in recent years. More, It is mentioned in the MEP program at the same time, that RA economic growth forecasts contain great uncertainties, containing downward (negatively affecting) and upward (assuming positive developments) bilateral risks.

And it’s remarkable, that downside risks prevail. In other words, in fact, the authors of the MDPAP themselves admit that the probable deviations of the economic developments of the main macroeconomic scenario of the program formed in the framework of significant uncertainties are mostly in a negative direction.

2027-2029 The forecasts of the total revenues of the state budget and nominal amounts of tax revenues were revised in the direction of growth. Meanwhile, growth is not accompanied by an adequate increase in their ratio to GDP.

The plan predicts that the total budget expenditures in 2029 will amount to 4,461 billion drams, which is 35.0% more than the indicator of 2025, and the government debt, having increased by 43.6% from 5,355 billion drams in 2025, will reach 7,689 billion drams in 2029. In 2029, compared to 2026, in contrast to the continuous growth of the general expenses of the state budget and the debt of the government, their ratio to the GDP is predicted to decrease due to the progressive growth of the GDP.

According to the Program` In the medium term, the government’s debt burden will become much heavier: Interest payments for debt service will be 42.4% more in 2029 compared to the actual size of 2025, from 349 billion drams to 493 billion drams.

It is remarkable, that a number of predictions continue to be repeated in the program, the implementation of which was repeatedly postponed in previous years. The provision on the start of operation of the Amulsar mine is one of its most characteristic examples.

Previous MDP–forgiveness was also mentioned, that the mine will be exploited already in the year of drawing up the project and will contribute positively to the economic growth of that year. Taking into account the fact that such forecasts have been regularly postponed in recent years, skepticism about the implementation of the Project is further justified.

It is remarkable, that the expected size of the current year’s budget expenditures under the Program is even slightly more, than the amount planned by the annual approved budget. While it is known, that during the years of activity of the current government, a sad tradition has been formed: budget expenditures are constantly under-executed.

According to the latest available official information, in the 1st quarter of 2026, budget expenditures were under-executed by 29.6%. In this case, expect, that at the end of the year the actual expenses of the budget will even exceed the amount planned in the budget, is unreasonable optimism. And even if the expected size of the current year is unrealistic, how can the predictions made on its basis for the next three years inspire confidence? In this regard, the realism of the mid-term forecasts built on their basis also gives rise to deep concerns.

Full analysis here.

“LUYS” Foundation

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152 million 319 thousand 400 drams, or about 415 thousand dollars. this is the amount of the grant that the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports allocated to the Public Television Company of Armenia CJSC for the organization of the “Festivar” festival.

The venues of the event are Talin city of Aragatsotn marz and Goris city of Syunik marz, July 18 and August 15.

The amount includes creative staff services, LED screen, lighting equipment, sound support, constructions, stage support services, including technical equipment transportation and service staff salary costs, providing special stage effects, advertising and printing, promotion organization services.

in 2025 from KGSMSN were informed About the allocation of more than 211 million drams from the RA government for the purpose of holding the “Festivar” festival.

in 2024 168․amthe wrote: the current authorities, on whose shoulders the state debt has almost doubled, have decided not to break the tradition and direct 180 million drams to the “Festival” cultural project. It was within the framework of this project that the Nikol Pashinyan-Anna Hakobyan couple went to Gyumri to participate in Tata’s concert.

in 2023 the event was held in Lori, Gegharkunik and Syunik marzes, and on the same days in Artsakh, more than 100 thousand Armenians were starving in the siege. The public television company received a grant of 179 million 954 thousand drams, about 467 thousand dollars, from the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports of the Republic of Armenia to implement the project.

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A:Last week, the Americans struck a railway bridge in Iran’s northeastern province of Golestan, and in the past few days, a large-scale exchange of strikes has also resumed, burying the temporary memorandum of understanding.

Yesterday, on July 13, the Central Command of the US forces announced the restoration of the naval blockade of Iran.

All ships moving into or out of the Persian Gulf have been ordered to contact US naval forces in the region and follow their instructions. In turn, Tehran announced a ban on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

On the same day, July 13, Donald Trump spoke about the intention of the United States to assume the role of “guardian” of the strategic waterway, imposing a blockade on Iranian ships with compensation of 20 percent of the value of all cargo passing through the strait. And on July 14, the head of the White House informed the Congress that the United States, no more, no less, is at war with Iran, while the White House’s repeated statements about neutralizing Iran’s military potential do not withstand any criticism.

The Iranians continue to respond to US strikes and attack ships that have not been allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with earlier agreements. “It is clear that Trump has decided to win another war in the Middle East, which, as Iraq and Afghanistan have shown, is impossible to win.” writes Senator Alexey Pushkov.

Given the volatile situation in the Middle East, especially in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which will continue indefinitely, several countries in the Arabian Peninsula have resumed talks about the prospects for a 2,300 km railway project known as the Gulf Railwayin: and the Strait of Hormuzby bypassing:

Given Iraq’s current rail link with Kuwait and its border with Saudi Arabia, n:It is planned to connect the railways of Iraq and Saudi Arabia parallel to the Persian Gulf coast, with access to the ports of the United Arab Emirates and Oman on this trans-regional line.՝ On the shores of the Indian Ocean: This line should be between ports in the United Arab Emirates and Oman. It is planned that the project will be fully implemented no later than 2030 (the previous such date was 2031).

By now the UAE already has finished the construction of a railway network of about 900 kilometers, which connects Guwaifat (a small city in the west of the emirate of Abu Dhabi) with Fujairah, and plans to transport 60 million tons of cargo by 2030. Saudi Arabia is also working on projects to link the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf.

And near the two railway crossings of Iran and Iraq, including their borders with Kuwait, the Gulf Railway can be connected within the territory of the Islamic Republic. «North-South» to the western (near-Caspian) branch of the international transport corridor, with the possible branching of Julfa (Nakhijevan Autonomous Republic) through the Horadiz-Aghbend-Meghri area.

Mohammad Al-Shabrami, Director General of the Railways Department of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC) խոսքով՝ Gulf Railway project is 50 percent complete. The 2,177 km long railway network should stretch from Kuwait to Muscat through the territory of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.

If the project is implemented, the passenger flow is expected to increase from 6 million in 2030 to more than 8 million by 2045. Cargo volume will increase from 200 million tons in 2030 to 271 million tons in 2045, indicating the significant impact of the initiative on intra-regional trade.

International portal GetTransport.com reportedly selects carriers by land, sea and rail in the Gulf region on a weekly basis, so this is not an “ad version” of the highway. In 2021, the Department of Railways of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf was established.

The total cost of the project is estimated at 250 billion dollars. And each of the six states builds and pays for land within its territory. The network is expected to carry approximately 201 million tons of cargo in 2030 and serve 6 million passengers annually, growing to 271 million tons by 2045. Such optimistic forecasts are probably related to the unfavorable situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which will probably contribute to the transfer of most of the transit cargo passing through the territory of Iran to the Gulf Railway.

In addition, these countries are seeking to shift a significant portion of their containerized cargo from highways and purely coastal (coastal) shipping to a transcontinental highway.

Meanwhile, since 2023, in the UAE, rail cargo transportation has been carried out along the 900-kilometer line, the Emirati section of the Gulf Railway. Connecting four ports and seven logistics hubs, Saudi Arabia Railways has launched five new logistics corridors (LCOs) in 2026, including the LCO to Bahrain and the upgraded LCO to Kuwait. However, cross-border communication between all six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council is not yet available, including because “the unified customs structure is still being created here.”

In perspective, the Gulf Railway will actually form «North-South»diversified configuration, which is more resistant to geopolitical shocks and safer than routes exclusively through Iran and Iranian ports. Proponents of the project they write (on September 8, 2025): “The Gulf Railway project was approved back in 2009 and aims to create a unified transport system that will provide fast, safe and stable connection between the Gulf countries.

This is not only an infrastructure project, but a large-scale transformer of the region. It strengthens economic interconnectedness, creates growth points, changes the logic of demand for residential and commercial real estate.»։

Mohammed bin Fahad Al Shabrami, Director General of the UAE Railways Authority գնահատմամբ՝ “Member States are working in an integrated format to complete all phases of the project. The railway will connect to major ports and logistics centers throughout the Persian Gulf (there are ports and logistics centers on the coasts of the Arab countries of the Gulf). Which will have a positive impact on the economy, will increase the flow of goods and facilitate cross-border passenger transportation.”

In the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the idea of ​​a Gulf Railway dates back to British plans in the second half of the 1930s to provide greater connectivity to their Middle Eastern protectorates (Treaty of Oman, present-day UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and partly Iraq).

However, subsequent transformations, the disappearance of the British Empire from the world map, the defeat of London as a result of the Suez crisis in 1956 stopped the implementation of the ambitious transport project. It was later hampered by disputes between neighboring states and their ruling dynasties over the ownership of some border regions, primarily between Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. Al-Buraymi regarding the vast oasis.

According to Oxford Business Group 2022 of information“…after delays, the long-awaited Gulf railway looks set to be reborn, potentially transforming trade and communications across the Gulf. After decades of discussion, the railway project along the Persian Gulf was approved in 2009 by all six member states of the SSAGPZ.

The project received a significant boost in December 2021 when the leaders of the six participating countries approved the establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council Railways Authority, a body expected to oversee the coordination and operation of the project.

It should be assumed that the question of the possible participation of Russian companies in the project is waiting for its solution.  At the end of January 2008 was reported, that «Russian railways» have won the tender for a major railway project in the capital region of Saudi Arabia, which is not directly connected to the East Arabian Highway.

The start of its implementation has not been reported. pon the contrary, there were unofficial reports that they were actually forced to abandon the project or in fact «to freeze» in it «Russian railways» direct participation due to Tehran’s position that it is not interested in Russian participation in Saudi transport initiatives.

The question of whether common interests and economic interest will prevail against the background of the sharp increase in risks of maritime transportation in the background of current or even deeper disagreements remains open.

Alexey Chichkin

fondsk.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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Deputy of the “Armenia” bloc, member of the General Assembly of the Armenian Democratic Party, Turkologist Gegham Manukyan with 168.amThis time discussed Turkic issues.

According to the federalist’s observation, four coups have taken place during the one-century history of the Republic of Turkey, three of which were directly military intervention, the last one in 1997, is called post-modern, because the change of power was carried out by the army in a bloodless, palace way.

And, unlike the experience of 2016, according to Gegham Manukyan, all previous military coups were successful, because “the military had the support of powerful foreign forces, and in 2016, the Turkish military was deprived of it and was defeated, because Turkish President Erdogan also received direct support from these forces.” Naturally, Turkish President Erdogan will not admit that he had any form of support from foreign forces in 2016, he attributes the failure of the military coup attempt to the unity and sanity of his people.

And Gegham Manukyan is of the opinion that all this is very instructive for all military coup attempts.

Has there ever been a military coup attempt in the Republic of Armenia, successful or not, can we project the above on Armenia?

For example, the departure of Levon Ter-Petrosyan in 1998. What was it in February, a bloodless “military coup”?… Nikol Pashinyan also called the statement of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces of February 25, 2021 an attempted military coup, moreover, with outside intervention, from the former to outside forces, although the former Head of the General Staff Onik Gasparyan ruled it out.

– The armed coups in Turkey were only the result of external influence. In other words, the internal political situation of some external forces, especially the Western ones, gave the United States the opportunity to say “yes” or silently support the illegal unconstitutional actions carried out by the armed forces in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997.

As for the armed coup of 2016, the political situation was such that Erdogan, with the tacit support of both the West and Russia, was more in control of the situation. We should also not forget the case during the attempted military coup, when it was based on direct Russian information that Erdogan escaped death in connection with the plane. Of course, in 2016, the role of the society and the people was also great, which directly expressed the high rating of Erdogan, as a result of which it was also possible to resist the military, including popular resistance or resistance.

And in the case of Armenia, talking about a military coup or its attempt, including the famous resignation of Levon Ter-Petrosyan in February 1998, this has nothing to do with reality, because Ter-Petrosyan’s resignation was the result of a sharp difference in the positions of the government and the opposition on the internal political and political line of Armenia, and not the army had any role in it.

Moreover, the sharp difference in views between the government and the opposition was also expressed in society. We are talking about the future of Artsakh and two different ideas of negotiation on the Artsakh issue, which, I repeat, was expressed in February 1998 with the resignation of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. And the RA foreign policy of the following 20 years also testified that the reason for the resignation was the difference in visions regarding the future of Artsakh.

As for the statement of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces of February 25, 2021, it is also impossible to call this a military coup attempt, because in the classical sense, during military coup attempts or changes of power, all the tools available to the armed forces are used. Meanwhile, the General Staff simply made a statement, and it was about the attitude of the political power towards the armed forces in general.

And it is no coincidence that the statement of the General Staff was not accepted by the international community with bayonets, except for Turkey and Azerbaijan. And Nikol Pashinyan’s wording, “attempted military coup”, was repeated verbatim only by Turkey, and no other international organization or any other country said a word about it at all.

– Let’s return to Turkey and Erdogan’s policy towards the country’s army and military. Can we say that Erdogan, on the one hand, has created a powerful army, and in recent years, also a military industry, on the other hand, he has reduced the influence of the military in the country’s internal political life and the country’s governance system, moreover, he did it in the name of reforms necessary for EU membership. And now he is trying to change the constitution of Turkey so that the country has a “civil” mother law that will not be dictated by foreign forces and “rioters”. What is Erdogan trying to prevent with this?

– The transformation of the armed forces in Turkey is a rather extensive topic. Because in terms of its role in the domestic political life of Turkey, the country’s armed forces underwent quite a transformation for decades, after Erdogan came to power and even before that, as well as with the strengthening of the Gulen movement in the country, along with the widespread appearance of Gulenists in various security structures. And the strong presence of Gülenists, officers with Islamic tendencies in the Turkish army predetermined all the changes, dismissals, arrests, arrests, beheadings of the armed forces that took place. During Erdogan’s rule. And in this logic are also all the papers and proceedings related to “Ergenicon”.

Let’s add that at the event dedicated to the memory of the victims of the failed military coup attempt in Turkey in July 2016, which was also a reminder of how 10 years ago the Turkish authorities and the people managed to jointly prevent it, Erdogan stated:

“Our state has more than enough power to neutralize any threat against it and defeat those traitors who dare to raise their heads. Although FETÖ has essentially lost fighting spirit and lost hope after the death of its leader, Turkey cannot afford to weaken in the fight against this insidious network.”

On the one hand, this means that Turkey has not completely neutralized the threats from the Gulen movement, has not cleaned the security and power structures of “traitors”, on the other hand, this suggests Erdogan’s fears, such as any dictator may have, even if the country has become a serious factor in the outside world.

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Regarding the exports from Armenia to European Union countries, particularly flowers, the statements made by the authorities and the reality are completely different.

According to the statements of the authorities, there are no problems related to export, but the reality is that many florists take the flowers out of the greenhouse, dry them and burn them, without knowing what or whose flowers they have grown, they are exported to the European market.

Artak Tovmasyan, a florist from Zvartnots, as months ago, he is unable to export or sell the flowers he grows in the domestic market.

“They exported a small batch, and it was for the experiment, and this refers only to the rose, they did not take other types of flowers at all.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications did not come to our greenhouses to check, but we are waiting.

Gevorg Papoyan talks about the export of fish products from Armenia, look at Armen’s conversation about the problems they are facing in that sector, you will see that Papoyan is telling lies, he is probably doing it to please his boss. He wants to make sure that the boss is calm, as if there is export from Armenia, but in reality there is not.

Well, Nikol Pashinyan also thinks that the flower is being exported and there is no one complaining about him, why should he be worried? Otherwise, one may suddenly worry that people’s patience may run out and after some time the greenhouse owners will unite.” 168.amArtak Tovmasyan said in a conversation with

He said that one percent of the flowers grown in his greenhouse were sold in the domestic market during this time, and the rest is currently stored in the adjacent part of the greenhouse, waiting to dry out in order to burn it.

“We are unable to export or sell here, as a result, we are now preparing a new “batch” of burning flowers. Moreover, now the people who imported the Lisianthus flower from Europe are in a more difficult situation.

During this time, all of us have suffered a lot of damage, I have suffered a loss of 40 million drams as of this moment,” stressed the florist.

To the question: Nikol Pashinyan visited Russia weeks ago, is it possible that certain changes will follow that visit, our interlocutor answered: if there were changes after that visit, then there would be, that is, flowers would have been exported to the Russian market 2 days after Nikol Pashinyan’s visit.

“My assumption is that they said in Russia: you will be good with us, we will accept flowers, if not, go to your Europeans and sell as many flowers as you want.

If you meet Nikol Pashinyan or Papoyan, whom I call Kozbadi, ask why he does not meet with us, tell him that what they say, the greenhouse owners deny, they say they are lying.

Figures show that the subsidy was distributed, loans were frozen, etc., but nothing was done. After each such statement, I call 40 people and ask if they have used the government programs, and there is no one who says yes, I have used them. They only froze the principal amount of subsidized loans,” emphasized our interlocutor.

He said that recently many greenhouse owners have been calling him and asking them to organize some kind of protests, but he replied to all of them that they can organize, he will join, because at the time, when he said to stand up, everyone said to wait, it will be fine.

“I said: let’s do something, they said: it’s going to open, my product is already spoiled, if they want to get together, let them organize it, I’ll join.

They say that every nation deserves its leader, whatever kind of leader it is, so is the nation. Now, if Nikol Pashinyan speaks live with his finger in his nose, his voters will say that it is true. Well, if they want to be in charge, when the season of plucking from the ground and trees ends this month, we will see how they will do it, then they will feel the results of those decisions on their skin. If Nikol Pashinyan stayed in his seat until February, then he is a very good prime minister, we are the ones talking stupid things. I have given the deadline until February, which will not be delayed,” emphasized Artak Tovmasyan.

Let’s remind that after May 22, Russia limited the import of flowers

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