The Abolition of Grandparents

Lew Rockwell, CA
April 3 2004

The Abolition of Grandparents
by Gary North

A good man leaveth an inheritance to his children’s children: and the
wealth of the sinner is laid up for the just (Proverbs 13:22).

In this report, I’m going to give you some history (yawn), some
sociological analysis (snore), and a suggestion on how to generate a
stream of income that will keep you from starving on Social Security
and the devalued dollar that it will lead to politically.

The plight of America’s grandparents is on my mind today because
Thursday, I became one for the first time. I won’t tell you that my
grandson is cuter than yours was. That would be bragging. I will tell
you that he is larger: 10 lbs., 11 oz. If your first thought is, “I’m
glad I’m a man,” you get the idea.

Thirty years ago, my father-in-law, who was a remarkable scholar
(30,000 books in his library, one of which he read every day for 60
years), mentioned a social factor in Communist countries that he
believed was a major factor that was hampering the advent of
Communism’s New Man: grandmothers. This was especially true, he said,
in the Soviet Union. Both parents worked outside the home. Because
there was so little housing space under Communism, it was common for
grandparents to live in the same small apartment. So, when the
children came home from school, grandma was there to tell them
stories and thereby transfer part of the pre-revolution culture to
them. The Soviet economy was so bad that the Communists could not
afford to separate grandchildren from grandparents. This undermined
the attempt of the Communist Party and the school system to
indoctrinate the children in pure Marxism-Leninism. There was a
conservative factor at the heart of Communist society that could not
be eradicated.

My father-in-law was alert to this factor because he was an Armenian.
He was the seventh in a line of sons in his family who served the
community as their minister. There was never any other occupation
that his father had wanted for him. Until the Turkish genocide of a
million Armenians in 1915-16, his family had stayed in the same town:
Van. He told me that it was possible to trace his family back to the
13th century in the church graveyard. In the church Bible that had
been left behind in the exodus in 1915, his father had told him that
there was a notation in the margin: “Today, the Mongols came
through.” That is what I would call cultural continuity.

That family continuity was shattered the day his family got off the
boat in New York City in 1916, where he was born. America does what
the Communists could not do: remove the grandparent factor. The
nuclear family, inside which grandparents do not live, is the norm
here. In Armenia, there were sometimes four generations living under
the same roof – a very large roof. That tradition does not survive in
America, although “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” shows that some Greek
communities come close.

In my father-in-law’s family, all of the three children went through
divorces. (A fourth child had died in the family’s exodus across the
border into Russia.) America has this effect on families.

MOVING ON

Paul Johnson is my favorite contemporary historian. He writes better
than the rest of them, and he writes smarter. His book, The Birth of
the Modern (1991), is 1,100 pages long, yet it covers only 15 years:
1815 to 1830. My favorite chapter is Chapter 3, “The End of the
Wilderness.” All over the world, cheap land was opening up: in
Russia, in Argentina, in Brazil, and above all, in the United States.

Perhaps the most potent of all American virtues, in European eyes,
had nothing directly to do with good government. It was the price of
land. In the early decades of the 19th century, good land – land that
was accessible and secure, ready to be cleared and worked by an
industrious family with a small capital – was cheaper than at any
time in history, before or since. It was a unique moment, which could
never conceivably happen again (p. 209).

So, Europeans came here. By the millions, they came. The birth rate
had been very high in America, but the survival rate was the highest
on earth. Ben Franklin had noted this fact half a century earlier. If
anything, the survival rate accelerated.

In America, from the beginning, community bonds had little power
because of cheap land. In his 1963 book, Puritan Village, Sumner
Chilton Powell describes the break-up of Sudbury, Massachusetts,
because the town fathers wanted to control land sales and allocation.
The sons walked out in protest and started another town, Marlboro.
This became the American way. Never in man’s recorded history has
there been geographical mobility to match America’s.

This is still true. Families in America move, on average, once every
five years.

The Westward movement in the 19th century was immense. The invention
of the steam-powered boat in the era covered in the early pages of
Johnson’s book was followed by the invention of the steam railroad at
the end. The railroad accelerated geographical mobility as no
invention ever had in history. It became possible to go 40 miles an
hour or faster, sitting in a bump-free compartment, reading a book.
With a covered wagon, 30 miles a day was making good time. In a
train, 30 miles an hour was nothing special, and the train traveled
all night.

In America, a man could take his wife and children and head west.
>From 1800 until the 1870s, this probably meant that the grandparents
would not see their grandchildren again. Saying goodbye was not a
formality. It was a permanent break in family continuity. Of course,
most people stayed close to home, but the westward movement was so
great a factor that Americans learned to shape their local
institutions in terms of it. We were the first society in history to
do this. Nomads had always moved, but they moved as communities. Not
in America. Families moved, and they kept on moving. It was cheap to
relocate. As economics tells us, when the price of anything falls,
more of it will be demanded.

CHEAP LAND, HIGH WAGES

When one factor of production is cheap, the complementary factors of
production become more valuable. In Western Europe, land has been
costly ever since the 15th century. It was relatively cheap only
after the bubonic plague of 1348-50, when a third of the population
died in three years. Families in Europe still keep the rural
homestead in the family for three or four centuries.

In a society that has high land costs, labor is not paid well.
Mobility is too costly. People stay put. Opportunities are few. In a
society with cheap but productive land, labor is paid very well. Why?
Because labor is mobile. A man can move somewhere else, where the
cost of living space is lower. Local employers must bid against the
opportunities that beckon. The grass is always greener on the other
side of the river. Dreams lure productive men to distant locations,
where their talents face less competition.

Americans have a 350-year tradition of pulling up stakes, as we put
it, and heading for greener pastures. This is considered normal. It
is even considered desirable. In Europe, in Great Britain, both
English and Scottish, young men moved to the colonies. In Asia, only
China has a tradition of moving away, and only in a few provinces. I
don’t know how long this tradition has operated. The offshore Chinese
have been a major phenomenon, which is one reason why China is a
formidable competitor today.

The willingness to move for the sake of economic opportunity is
fundamental in most entrepreneurial societies. Think of the “movers
and shakers” economically: the British, the Dutch, the Jews, the
Armenians, and the Chinese. They are all noted for their willingness
to move. Only the Japanese seem to break the rule. Instead, they have
imported culture, though not immigrants.

No society has ever been greener-pasture-motivated to the degree that
America has. Geographical mobility is a fundamental aspect of the
American way of life. “Your papers, please” is not a phrase that
Americans have been willing to tolerate. The government is slowly
infringing on this. If you fly on a commercial airliner, an industry
heavily regulated, you must present identification with a photo. But
you can always get on a bus, get on a train, or get in your car. You
can even thumb a ride. If you want to get from here to there, you can
do it cheaply in America.

GRANDPARENTS IN THE WILDERNESS

This has led to the isolation of American grandparents. Geographical
mobility of sons and sons-in-law has always loosened the ties of
grandparents to grandchildren in America. Now the rising divorce rate
has made these emotional ties high-risk between paternal generations.
Fathers lose custody of their children. If they get two weeks in
summer, the grandparents may get a few days of this. That is about
all they can expect. They become distant appendages in the lives of
these grandchildren.

The positive aspect of social and geographical mobility is obvious to
most Americans: more freedom to choose and more choices. Our society
is the envy of the world. Almost every other society on earth wants
to imitate us. This is a worldwide social revolution in a way that
Communists dreamed of but could not attain through force. But the
acids of modernity do eat away at the foundations of every social
order, including ours. There are no free lunches in life. There are
trade-offs. There are winners and losers. The great losers in America
are grandparents. In second place are grandchildren, especially those
ages three to ten.

Society’s link to the past has always been maintained by
grandparents. In America, we have replaced this link with tax-funded
schools. The yellow school busses that pick up children are the
visible sign of this transfer of social authority. Now that the
public schools are disintegrating, and have been for four decades,
Americans who fear the effects of the school system are pulling their
children out. But home schooling is done by mothers, not
grandmothers.

This had left grandparents with more free time, but less meaningful
work. They have more money and more political clout than oldsters
have ever possessed, but the price has been a social segregation that
is not much discussed. A friend of mine 35 years ago once described
Sun City as “the elephant burial grounds for the white middle class.”
This was accurate, except it is for the upper middle class. Sun City
and similar communities keep out children of school age in order to
keep property taxes low: no public schools. I understand the logic,
but I also recognize the price: a world without family ties.

Parents say, “I never want to move in with my kids. I don’t want to
be a burden.” Then they vote for Social Security and Medicare, i.e.,
stick it to everyone else’s kids. They substitute the State for the
family as the legal caregiver. This does to oldsters what the same
political process does to parents: it makes them socially irrelevant.
While there are no visible marks of this transfer of power that match
the yellow school bus, the transfer is equally powerful. Americans
have voted for a State run by bureaucrats with their tax money.
Americans have transferred to tax-funded bureaucrats the social
function of preserving society’s links to the past.

Then the television set breaks what few links survive this two-fold
severing: parents from children, grandparents from children and
grandchildren. Children today are being shaped mainly by the public
school and the television set. Parental influence is slipping away.
Grandparental influence no longer exists as a meaningful social
factor.

The war for our children, and therefore for the future of American
society, is being fought between the public school and the TV script
writers and their associates on Madison Avenue. Parents are becoming
bystanders. Grandparents are not even bystanders.

WHO WILL TEACH CHILDREN TO PRODUCE?

Schools teach children to obey. Television teaches viewers to spend.
Who teaches youngsters to produce?

Parents used to. They knew that they would become dependent on their
children in their old age. Their children were their capital. This is
still true in rural India and rural China, but it is fading fast even
there.

Grandparents have always provided positive sanctions. They have
rarely provided negative sanctions. Parents concentrate on pulling up
weeds. Grandparents are allowed to water flowers. Parents discipline
children. Grandparents spoil grandchildren.

In the old days, this spoiling process had a side-effect: linking the
child to the past. They went to visit grandmother, and grandfather
was allowed to impart general wisdom to the grandson, while
grandmother taught the granddaughter to make cookies. (I am not
speaking of Hillary Clinton’s grandmother, I suppose.)

We learn by seeing, then by doing. This is not bureaucratic
education. Bureaucratic education for the average student is learning
by reading and – when young – by reciting. The education of the rich
and powerful in prep schools concentrates on writing and public
speaking: rhetoric. But public school teachers are hard-pressed just
to maintain order. They don’t like to grade papers. They prefer to
give objective tests: true/false, multiple choice. In junior college,
a machine grades these tests.

Who will teach our children the skills that are necessary to become
economically productive? Bureaucrats reproduce themselves in the
classroom: obedience counts far more than creativity. Teachers are
paid to maintain order. If there is actual teaching going on, no one
cares too much, one way or the other, unless the teaching is superb.
Then envy takes over on the faculty. Pressures are applied. The
creative teachers eventually leave. If you want evidence, go to
Google and search for “John Taylor Gatto.”

Grandparents for thousands of years watered the flowers. Their
unofficial job was to discover what a child did well and encourage
the child to do it even better. It was the parents’ task to maintain
order. Uprooting weeds was the parents’ task. The grandparent could
concentrate on more productive matters.

“Grandma, look what I made!” was followed by, “That’s wonderful!”
Then, “Would you like me to show you how I made those when I was a
little girl?” In every society I have ever read about, there is some
version of this crucial verbal exchange. We can mark the decline of a
society by the departure of this verbal exchange.

THE DAY CARE

In our day, grandma is distant. Mom works outside the home. The
children are farmed out – an ancient phrase that has little economic
relevance today – to day care centers. Then, when the yellow buses
roll, they are farmed out to the public schools. The latch-key child
is the result.

Mom works because the State extracts 40% of most families’ incomes.
This is the result of voting patterns of grandma’s generation and her
parents’ generation. It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets . .
. worse. Social Security/Medicare is going to take an ever-larger
percentage of working parents’ income.

The day care is therefore as sure a business venture as the home for
invalids.

I am a grandparent. I am not planning to become dependent on Social
Security/Medicare. I also do not plan to move in with my children. I
am mostly hoping none of them moves back in with me. So, I plan to
open a day care. I have looked at the economics of day care. I know
of no more obvious way to make a lot of money. I have written about
this in the past.

Most people my age won’t do this. There is too much hassle. This is
not true of home-based day cares. If they started a home-based day
care, they could easily pull in an extra $30,000 a year. In Alabama,
which allows 12 children in a home, it’s closer to $60,000 a year.

The economics are astounding: $100/week/child, 50 weeks a year.
That’s $5,000. Multiply this by 5 or 6 children — 12 in Alabama.

Then do what grandparents have done for millennia: teach.

Teach them phonics. Read to them. Let then do show and tell. (They
love show and tell.) Let them run around in your fenced back yard.
Teach them songs. Teach them manners.

Pay attention to them. “Watch me!” may be the second most popular
phrase for pre-schoolers. “Why?” is the most popular phrase. Put both
phrases to good use.

If your grandchildren are far away, let local parents pay you $30,000
a year to rent your professional grandparent services.

If you don’t think you are capable of doing this, start a free day
care for two or three children for three months. You’re just
entertaining a few children for the day, with their parents’ written
permission. Since it’s not a business, you don’t need to get the
business zoned. You don’t need licensing. You may not need insurance
beyond what you’ve already got. Try it. See if you like it. Then, if
you like it, go through whatever zoning hoops are in place to open a
home-based day care. There are few licensing rules.

Have mothers pack the lunches and snacks. Don’t get into the
meal-preparation business. But you can bake cookies with a little
help from your friends. Think of it as a treat. Think of it as
educational. Think of it as enraging Hillary.

If you want a free manual on the basics of running a full day care
program, which is a lot harder than running a home-based day care,
click here.

I have encouraged the author to write a shorter version for home day
cares. He says he will. But don’t wait. Skip the chapters on
licensing and similar barriers to entry that do not apply to home
based day cares. Just read the chapters on teaching, curriculum, and
discipline. Also read the chapter on Social Security. That ought to
motivate you!

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north263.html

Burbank: Parade date stirs controversy

Burbank Leader , CA
LATimes.com
April 3 2004

Parade date stirs controversy

Burbank on Parade organizers set event for April 24, not realizing it
is Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day.

By Jackson Bell, The Leader

BURBANK – After a tumultuous four months that almost led to the
cancellation of Burbank on Parade, organizers have discovered a
planning gaffe that could exclude thousands of residents from the
annual event.

In mid-February, organizers scheduled the parade for April 24, the
same date as Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day. Many of the city’s
estimated 10,000 Armenian-American residents will not join the
celebration because they will spend the day at homes, churches or
rallies throughout the area, remembering the victims of the 1915
massacre, local Armenian leaders said.

“It’s unfortunate that they couldn’t change the date,” said Razmik
Hovanessian, a Burbank resident and Armenian-American activist. “We
expect our [city] leaders to be smart and wise and avoid coincidences
like this.”

But the parade, which has traditionally been on the last Saturday in
April, cannot be rescheduled this year because of the challenge in
coordinating youth bands, drill teams, equestrian entries and
representatives from local organizations, organizers said.

“All the plans have been made and $25,000 has already been spent,”
Parade Chairwoman Joanne Miller said. “At this point, the parade is
so far in the can that it’s too difficult to switch the date.”

Hovanessian and Miller were among several city officials, parade
organizers and prominent members of the city’s Armenian-American
community who met Thursday evening at Vice Mayor Marsha Ramos’
request.

The outcome, Ramos said, resulted in an end to any future conflicts.

“There are more details that need to be worked out in terms of next
year’s date,” she said. “But there is a firm commitment that this
will never again happen on April 24.”

The trouble started when organizers in December sent a letter to the
city announcing their decision to no longer proceed with the parade,
citing difficulties working with the city’s License and Code
Compliance Division and Parks, Recreation and Community Services
Department.

But after the problems were ironed out and the event resumed,
awareness of the sensitive date fell under the radar.

“The next thing we knew, the date was publicized and everything was
planned in a very short time,” Ramos said of the parade, in its 23rd
year.

The meeting, however, helped to clear up something that could be
perceived negatively by the Armenian-American community, said Hoori
Chalian, a resident who is involved with the Armenian National
Committee of Burbank.

“I now understand that this was done with no malice,” Chalian said.
“But it is an unfortunate coincidence, and I appreciate the
opportunity to explain where I’m coming from.”

Iran, Armenia finalize gas accord

IranMania News
April 3 2004

Iran, Armenia finalize gas accord

TEHRAN, April 2 (IRIB) – Negotiations with Iran regarding the
construction of a gas pipeline to Armenia reached the final stage,
Armenian Energy Minister Armen Movsesyan said.

The sides have already reached accords on the main technical
parameters of the pipeline. Iranian oil minister is expected to
arrive in Yerevan in early April to sign an agreement on building of
a gas pipeline, Movsesyan said.

According to the minister, the construction, due to begin later this
year, will last 20 months and to be completed in 2006. Either country
will be fully responsible for laying its stretch of the pipeline.
According to preliminary estimates, the Armenian section will cost
dlrs 100 million to lay, and the Iranian stretch, slightly more.

According to the draft agreement, Iran will deliver gas to Armeniain
amounts sufficient only for the country’s domestic consumption,
Movsesyan said. The question of extending the pipeline farther to
carry Iranian gas to Europe was not considered, contrary to
allegations by some mass media.

The gas pipeline from Iran will ensure continuous gas supply to
Armenia and enhance its energy security.

BAKU: Ombudsman of Azerbaijan receives return mail from Hungary

Azer Tag, Azerbaijan State Info Agency
April 3 2004

OMBUDSMAN OF AZERBAIJAN RECEIVES RETURN MAIL FROM HUNGARY

Commissioner on Human Rights in Azerbaijan Republic Elmira
Suleymanova has recently sent a letter to Ombudsman of Hungarian
Republic to ask the latter to ensure rights of Azerbaijan military
officer Ramil Sarfarov detained in Budapest for murder of the
Armenian servicemen on February 19, promote unbiased investigation
and keep the issue under control. The letter also clued up on the
roots of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and infamous actions of the
Armenian aggressors including the Statement issued on the occasion of
the 12th anniversary of Hojali genocide resulted in mass annihilation
of innocent people.

In his return mail, Ombudsman of Hungarian Republic Albert Takashin’s
has expressed gratitude for the confidence to his office, and noted
in particular that the information provided in the letter had made
him think. `This detailed information will facilitate investigating
authorities to take fair decision,’ the letter said. Mr. Albert
Takashin pointed out that although the Hungarian law on Ombudsman did
not empower him to directly interfere the investigation, however, he
had sent all the documents to Prosecutor General, who had invited him
to monitor the process, receive information on the facts established,
and hear out the complaints from the suspect.

The Ombudsman of the Hungarian Republic assured his Azerbaijan
colleague that representatives of his office would regularly visit
Ramil Safarov to keep him informed of the efforts being taken by his
country to help him, and to learn of his needs and problems.
From: Baghdasarian

Home-grown terrorism: A reporter suggests lax laws…

The Vancouver Sun (British Columbia)
April 3, 2004 Saturday Final Edition

Home-grown terrorism: A reporter suggests lax laws and haphazard
security make Canada a haven for terrorists

by Jeff Lee

COLD TERROR: How Canada Nurtures and Exports Terrorism Around The
World

By Stewart Bell

John Wiley & Sons, 288 pages (36.99)

Stewart Bell is unapologetic, if nothing else, in his contempt for
what he sees as a Canadian bureaucracy that condoned and fostered the
establishment of terrorist organizations.

But Bell, the author of an unvarnished look at how Canada became a
haven for terror groups, raises valid questions about why the country
failed to act, time and again, in identifying and expelling the bad
guys.

In his book Cold Terror: How Canada Nurtures and Exports Terrorism
Around The World, Bell argues that Canada has contributed, albeit
indirectly, to the deaths of innocent people, and that it is
incapable at this point of mounting an effective counter-terrorism
campaign.

Everyone now recognizes Al Qaeda as the preeminent terrorist
organization around the world. But Bell points out that Al Qaeda’s
forerunners and cousins had been established in Canada long before
the Sept. 11 attacks levelled New York’s World Trade Center towers.

Bell, a former Vancouver Sun reporter who now writes for the National
Post, recounts how more than 25 years ago terrorists looked above the
49th parallel and found a place from which to raise funds for their
causes. He takes us back to what he believes was the first true act
of Canadian terrorism, an assassination attempt in 1982 by Armenians
wanting to avenge the 1915 Armenian genocide at the hands of Turks.

This was not something Canada was used to. Factional disputes between
ethnic neighbourhoods were one thing; attempts at political
assassination were another. Then the bloody 1985 attack on an Air
India passenger jet raised Canadian culpability in terrorism to a new
level.

And yet, Bell suggests, Canada did little to prevent the incursion
and development of terrorist organizations on its soil. The result,
he says, was a conscious understanding by groups such as the Tamil
Tigers of Sri Lanka, Sikh separatists, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda that
the could operate from here with impunity.

“The list of specific government failures is extensive, from an
immigration system seemingly incapable of deporting even known
terrorists, to laws that have proven ineffective at shutting down
charities and ethnic associations fronting for terror,” he writes.
“But it all stems from a political leadership unwilling to take a
stand and secure Canadians and their allies from the violent whims of
the world’s assorted radicals, fundamentalists and extremists.”

Bell uses a network of security sources, both named and unnamed, to
spin stories demonstrating his thesis that Canada has long lacked the
chutzpah to stop terrorists. He also points out that Canadian
citizens have partaken in terrorist attacks abroad, from the 1993
World Trade Center truck bombing to the bombing of a Bali nightclub
in 2002 and the bombing of Western housing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a
year later.

“Canadian terrorists spill blood around the world,” he writes
harshly, as if somehow we should have expected otherwise.

In the end, Cold Terror is little more than an argument for tougher
laws and a tougher strategy for combating terrrorism.

Here, in suggesting Al Qaeda is governed by “irrational religious
zealots,” is Bell’s entire premise:

“What is needed to combat such fanaticism is a forceful security and
intelligence response that seeks to dismantle the terror networks
within Canada, coupled with an overseas military strategy that
attacks the dens of terror. That cannot happen as long as the
government is in denial and fails to recognize that terrorists have
declared war on our values, our way of life and our society.”

GRAPHIC: Photo: Istsuo Inouye, Associated Press Files; The Bali bomb
blast in October 2002 is an example of Canadian involvement in
terror.; Photo: COLD TERROR: How Canada Nurtures and Exports
Terrorism Around The World By Stewart Bell, John Wiley & Sons, 288
pages (36.99)

Armenia’s DM satisfied with CIS air defence system

ITAR-TASS News Agency
TASS
April 3, 2004 Saturday

Armenia’s defence minister satisfied with CIS air defence system

By Tigran liloyan

YEREVAN

The Commonwealth of Independent States’ (CIS) Joint Air Defence
System is capable of fulfilling any task, Armenian Defence Minister
Serzh Sarkisyan said at the meeting with Russian journalists on
Saturday. He said he would like that system to be armed with
state-of-the-art combat means.

The minister said, “Armenian air defence troops are mission capable
and they have proved it in the course of joint exercises at the
Russian air defence test range Ashuluk.”

“The armed forces are the main guarantor of the country’s security.
They have all the necessary means to protect the borders of their
homeland,” the minister said. Mechanised units led by career officers
with vast combat experience form the bulk of the Armenian armed
forces, the minister said.

“The important component of Armenia’s national security is the
Russian military base,” he stressed.

Armenia lauds Russian-Armenian military cooperation

ITAR-TASS News Agency
TASS
April 3, 2004 Saturday 7:20 AM Eastern Time

Armenia lauds Russian-Armenian military cooperation

By Tigran Liloyan

YEREVAN

Armenia considers the Russian-Armenian military cooperation to be
“part of the country’s national security and believes that the
presence of the Russian military base in the Armenian territory is
right and essential for Armenia,> said Armenian Defence Minister and
National Security Council Secretary Serzh Sarkisyan who received a
group of Russian journalists on Saturday.

He explained that Russia’s military presence promoted stability in
the region.

Armenia is interested in military cooperation with Russia because its
armed forces are armed with the Soviet or Russian weapons, Sarkisyan
told Russian journalists.

He said Armenia purchased spare parts for military hardware in Russia
and added that many problems in this area had been solved as a result
of favourable conditions created for Armenia within the framework of
the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

Armenian officers receive training in Russia free of charge. The
defence minister said 700 Armenian citizens studied in Russian
military schools and academies.

Karabakh problem should be solved by peaceful means – DM

ITAR-TASS News Agency
TASS
April 3, 2004 Saturday

Karabakh problem should be solved by peaceful means – DM

By Tigran Liloyan

YEREVAN

Armenian Defence Minister Serzh Sarkisyan said it is necessary to
solve the Karabakh problem by peaceful and political means.

Sarkisyan told Russian journalists on Saturday, “I believe that the
main thing is to prevent the resumption of armed actions” in the area
of the Karabakh conflict.

“There were no winners,” the minister stressed.

“We believe that the Karabakh problem should be solved by peaceful,
political means and it is necessary to hold talks and reach a
compromise,” Sarkisyan pointed out.

The defence minister said Armenia considers military cooperation with
Russia “part of the country’s national security and believes that the
presence of the Russian military base in the Armenian territory is
right and essential for Armenia.”

He explained that Russia’s military presence promoted stability in
the region.

Armenia is interested in military cooperation with Russia because its
armed forces are equipped with the Soviet or Russian weapons,
Sarkisyan said.

The minister noted that Armenia purchased spare parts for military
hardware in Russia and added that many problems in this area had been
solved as a result of favourable conditions created for Armenia
within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

Sarkisyan said 700 Armenian citizens studied in Russian military
schools and academies.

On Armenia’s air defence, Sarkisyan said the CIS Joint Air Defence
System is capable of fulfilling any task. The minister said he would
like that system to be armed with state-of-the-art combat means.

He stressed, “Armenian air defence troops are mission capable and
they have proved it in the course of joint exercises at the Russian
air defence test range Ashuluk.”

“The armed forces are the main guarantor of the country’s security.
They have all the necessary means to protect the borders of their
homeland,” the minister said. Mechanised units led by career officers
with vast combat experience form the bulk of the Armenian armed
forces, the minister said.

“The important component of Armenia’s national security is the
Russian military base,” Sarkisyan pointed out.

Armenian Genocide Quotes

Hellenic Resources Network
Saturday, 3 April 2004

Armenian Genocide Quotes

Mustafa “Ataturk” Kemal

Founder of the modern Turkish Republic in 1923 and revered throughout
Turkey, in an interview published on August 1, 1926 in The Los Angeles
Examiner, talking about former Young Turks in his country…
These left-overs from the former Young Turk Party, who should have been made
to account for the millions of our Christian subjects who were ruthlessly
driven en masse, from their homes and massacred, have been restive under the
Republican rule.

Adolf Hitler

While persuading his associates that a Jewish holocaust would be tolerated
by the west stated…
Who, after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?

Yossi Beilin

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister. April 27, 1994 on the floor of the Knesset
in response to a TV interview of the Turkish Ambassador
It was not war. It was most certainly massacre and genocide, something the
world must remember… We will always reject any attempt to erase its
record, even for some political advantage.

Gerald Ford

Addressing the US House of Representatives.
Mr. Speaker, with mixed emotions we mark the 50th anniversary of the Turkish
genocide of the Armenian people. In taking notice of the shocking events in
1915, we observe this anniversary with sorrow in recalling the massacres of
Armenians and with pride in saluting those brave patriots who survived to
fight on the side of freedom during World War I. – Congressional Record, pg.
8890

NATO Expansion: More Muscle for U.S. To Flex

THE STRATFOR WEEKLY
02 April 2004

NATO Expansion: More Muscle for U.S. To Flex

Summary

On March 29, NATO took in seven new member states. The
enlargement ensures that the NATO of the future will work as a
reliable arm of U.S. policy.

Analysis

At a 1999 summit in Washington, D.C., the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization welcomed its first new members of the post-Cold War
era: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The expansion was
broadly hailed in Europe and the United States as a bridge-
building effort to seal the Cold War rift. Moscow did not agree,
and the expansion condemned Russian-Western relations to the deep
freeze for three years.

Once the brouhaha of the summit died away, however, there were
some uncomfortable questions that NATO’s supporters had to deal
with. The alliance was formed to defend Europe from the Soviet
Union; what would it do, now that the Soviet threat no longer
existed? The answer from the new members was simple: Soviet =
Russian. The answer from the Russians was equally simple: Disband
NATO. Others felt that NATO should evolve into a political talk-
shop, a peacekeeping force, a military adjunct to the European
Union or some other nebulous confidence-building organization.

Five years later — 15 years after the Berlin Wall fell — it is
a different world and a different NATO. On March 29, the alliance
admitted the three remaining former Soviet satellites (Bulgaria,
Romania and Slovakia) and three former Soviet republics (Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania), as well as a piece of the former
Yugoslavia (Slovenia).
But the expansion did more than add 50 million people and
rationalize NATO’s eastern border.

For the most part, the confusion of 1999 is gone; with the 2004
expansion, NATO knows exactly what it is — even if some members
are not happy with the outcome. NATO is an instrument for Western
(read: U.S.) influence globally. The alliance now has troops
operating in long-term missions in Afghanistan, and soon will
have troops in Iraq. Because the United States remains the pre-
eminent power in the alliance — and in the world — it is
Washington that calls the shots.

Core NATO members such as France and Germany certainly disagree
with this turn of events, but have lacked the influence to stop
it. That has become — and will continue to be — the case
because of the admittance of NATO’s newest members. All of the
fresh blood can be safely grouped into the “new Europe” that U.S.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld so charmingly coined in the
lead-up to the Iraq war. These states all share historical
experience in betrayal by France and domination by Germany and
Russia. It is only natural that such states would search further
abroad for allies to help guarantee their security. In the 1999
Kosovo war, the United States was able to use NATO to generate a
veneer of international respectability for actions that it could
not get the United Nations to sanction. From Estonia to Bulgaria,
the United States now has 10 new — or newish — states within
NATO that Washington can count on for support when such a state
of affairs surfaces in the future. The 2003 Iraq war is a prime
example; Bulgaria practically led the charge at the United
Nations for Washington.

Russia might not be thrilled with this development, but it is
certainly glad NATO’s eyes are casting about the planet and are
not riveted solely on the East. Further smoothing Russian-NATO
relations is the fact that — although U.S. influence over the
alliance is stronger than ever — NATO forces in Europe are
weaker than ever and are only expected to be further downsized.
Germany, long the European bugaboo, has cut its military forces
to the point that it has next-to-zero power projection capacity,
while the United States is openly discussing pulling troops out
of bases across Europe (much to the Berlin’s chagrin, we might
add).

NATO’s home front is not merely secure, it is not even a front
anymore. The only spot on the European continent that requires
forces is the Balkans, and even this is child’s play compared to
the tasks of NATO’s past. Places such as Kosovo will be a
headache for at least a generation, but such brushfires do not
threaten NATO’s core — or even new — members. That has changed
the very nature of NATO from a defensive (or offensive, depending
on your politics) military alliance to a tool of global
influence.

NATO’s Neighbors

On the surface, Russia’s strategic situation is miserable. All
its former satellites — plus three of its former republics —
are in an alliance with a nuclear first-strike policy that was
formed to counter the Red Army. Its only reliable allies are an
incompetently led Belarus and militarily insignificant Armenia.
Russian military spending is well up from its late 1990s lows,
but failed nuclear exercises earlier this year and the 2000 Kursk
submarine sinking are real reminders that even the once-feared
Soviet nuclear arsenal is only a shadow of its former self. The
question at the top levels of the Russian government is how to
manage the military decline; they are not yet to the point of
asking how they can reverse it.

In this regard, NATO’s 2004 expansion is a symptom of a much
deeper issue: Russia’s endemic decline. Putin spent the bulk of
his first term simply asserting control over the levers of power.
Now, with a tame Duma and a relatively loyal government at his
beck and call, Putin is focusing Russia’s energies on halting
(and hopefully reversing) Russia’s not-so-slow-motion collapse.
Attempting such a Herculean task will take nothing less than 200
percent of the Russian government’s time and attention, assuming
everything goes perfectly — and in Russia things rarely proceed
perfectly.

In the meantime, Moscow simply lacks the bandwidth to seriously
address anything going on in its neighborhood, much less farther
abroad. Attempts to counter what it considers unfriendly
developments will be flimsy and fleeting. Witness the recent
violence against Serbs in Kosovo: Russia sent a few harshly
worded press releases and some humanitarian aid, and that was the
end of it. The fact that the Baltics made it into NATO with so
little Russian snarling — or that Georgia transitioned to such
an anti-Russian government so easily — is testament to Moscow’s
distraction.

It is also a harbinger of things to come as Russia’s
introspection creates opportunities for power groups far more
aggressive than NATO:
* Uzbekistan hopes to become a regional hegemon, and will
capitalize on its indirect U.S. backing to extend its influence
throughout eastern Central Asia, particularly vis-a-vis Russian
allies Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
* Militant Islamist groups will deepen their influence in the
southern former Soviet Union, particularly in the Caucasus.
* China will continue quietly encouraging its citizens to
populate eastern Siberia while working to lash Kazakhstan,
traditionally Russia’s playground, to it economically.
* India is planting flags in the energy-rich Caspian basin,
particularly in Kazakhstan, while its intelligence services flow
anywhere Kashmiri militants might travel.
* Turkey is deepening its political, economic and military ties
with Georgia and particularly with Azerbaijan where Turkish
military forces often patrol the Azerbaijani skies.
* Japan is looking to carve out the resources of Siberia for
itself and is steadily expanding its economic interests in the
Russian Far East.
* The European Union is pressing its economic weight across the
breadth of Russia’s western periphery. As it brings the former
Soviet satellites into its own membership, Russian interests will
find them cut off from their old partners and markets.
* The United States is making inroads whenever and wherever it
can.

The question is not whether Russian influence can be rolled back
in the years ahead, or even where — it is by how much.

NATO’s Future

Diplomatically, the second post-Cold War expansion was not as
loud an affair as the first. The 1999 expansion also occurred
during the run-up to the Kosovo war. Within a two-month period
Russia saw the three most militarily powerful of its former
satellites join an opposing alliance with a nuclear first-strike
policy, while its most loyal European ally suffered a bombing
campaign, courtesy of that same alliance. Russia fought tooth and
nail in diplomatic circles to prevent the expansion, and quite
rightly felt betrayed. One of the deals made by the
administration of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush in the
last days of the Cold War was that Moscow would allow Germany to
reunite and remain completely in NATO, so long as the alliance
did not expand eastward.

Stratfor does not expect NATO’s next enlargement, likely within
the next five years, to be particularly troublesome. If Russia
had a red line, it drew it at the Baltics — three of its own
former republics — or Kaliningrad, a Russian Baltic enclave that
NATO’s new borders seal off from direct resupply. The next
enlargement is likely to take in the Balkan states of Albania,
Croatia, Macedonia and perhaps Bosnia. All fall behind NATO’s new
eastern “front line” and would not threaten Russia at all.

The only expansion in the near future that might elicit a rise
would be one that included Finland — which considered submitting
an application in the late 1990s — but even this would not be as
traumatic to the Russians as the now-official Baltic entries.
There is even the possibility that Austria, another of Europe’s
traditional neutrals, might someday join NATO. Vienna is already
more active in NATO exercises than are several full members. Any
serious discussion of a second across-the-Russian-red-line
expansion will be put off until well after 2010, although by that
point Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine could shape up as
possibilities.

NATO certainly has challenges ahead of it. The strain and
political arm-twisting that are likely to precede the expected
Iraq deployment could well reopen wounds that only recently
closed, and competing visions of what NATO should be will
certainly hound it for years. Ironically, this divergence of
perception is part of what will keep NATO powerful, present and
relevant to U.S. policymakers.

While several Western states — and Stratfor — no longer view
NATO as a true military alliance, that view is not shared
uniformly. It is a simple fact that many European countries feel
threatened by the political or military strength of Germany or
Russia. The age-old adage of NATO that it existed “to keep the
Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down” was always
far more than a clever turn of phrase. Many European states still
see this as a core NATO raison d’etre. Such belief is not an
issue of wealth — Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway are just
as pro-NATO and pro-American as Latvia, Hungary and Bulgaria —
it is an issue of place. These countries, by virtue of their
proximity to large neighbors with a past predilection for
domination, want a counterbalance.

So long as that is the case, a majority of NATO’s membership will
be enthusiastic about the alliance as an alliance. Even the
dullest of U.S. administrations will be able to translate that
energy into international influence in Europe — and beyond.
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