Despite the parliamentary elections held on June 7, the political status quo has been preserved in Armenia. the ruling party retained power, while the composition of the opposition remained unchanged. About what deep processes are hidden behind these results, VERELQa political scientist tells in an interview Hrant Mikayelyan. The expert analyzes the influence of geopolitics on the domestic agenda, explains why the mathematical distribution of mandates allows the country’s leadership not to make compromises with opponents, and shares predictions about the inevitable increase in polarization in Armenian society.
Hrant Mikayelyan is in the photo, source: newsarmenia.am
VERELQ. According to the results of the June 7 elections, the ruling “Civil Agreement” party retained the majority in the parliament, but did not change the composition of the opposition in the legislative body. At the same time, the hopes of the opposition regarding the change of power were also not justified. In your opinion, what does such a status quo indicate in terms of politics?
Hrant Mikayelyan. First of all, it is very important to understand that Armenia is a small country that has a very serious external influence. The geopolitical structure that currently exists in the region existed both in 2021 and in 2018. In many ways, Armenia’s internal policy is a projection of these external trends. Accordingly, the fact that the status quo has not changed indicates that the status quo in geopolitics has also remained the same.
This time, the geopolitical influence on the Armenian elections was already obvious, although it has been affecting the internal political processes of Armenia for a long time. It’s just now, against the backdrop of the aggravation of the situation, it is becoming more and more noticeable. Therefore, in a broad perspective, the foreign policy has not changed, the geopolitics has not changed, and, accordingly, the internal political arrangement has also remained the same. As for the situation in the places, of course, somewhere the government conducted an effective campaign and the opposition made mistakes, but at the same time, the government also used administrative resources, an atmosphere of intimidation and mass arrests.
VERELQ. A number of experts note that the voting results exposed the deep division in the Armenian society. To what extent does this assessment reflect the real picture?
Hrant Mikayelyan. It is quite possible to say so, but it is worth noting that the division is recorded not so much in the elections as in the streets. For almost six years, starting from November 2020, we have been witnessing systematic protest activity by a section of society. Some parties manage to consolidate it in their ranks, but by and large these protests are caused by foreign policy.
First of all, it refers to the security policy of Nagorno Karabakh, border issues and relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. These fundamental issues cannot be resolved solely by party mechanisms, as they are also a projection of foreign policy. Basically, this deep division existed, it exists, and, judging by everything, it will continue to exist, which we have been noticing for quite some time now in the data of sociological surveys.
VERELQ. Judging by everything, the ruling party is deprived of the constitutional majority, which is necessary to advance the constitutional reform. What challenges does this create for him? Can it be said that the topic of constitutional reforms, in particular, the exclusion of the reference to the Declaration of Independence, is now closed? Is such a result a shock for the country’s leadership?
Hrant Mikayelyan. As for the constitutional majority, in fact, the ruling party has not had it for a long time, at least since a few deputies left it about a year ago. In my opinion, it was not there before either. the number of mandates of the ruling power was as close as possible to the constitutional majority (I think 66 deputies against the necessary 67), but one vote was still not enough. Moreover, the Electoral Code is designed in such a way that a constitutional majority does not arise in principle. Regarding constitutional reforms, it is better to consult with lawyers, but, in my opinion, a referendum is still necessary to change the Constitution. simply voting in the parliament is not enough for that.
Is the election result a shock? Of course not. The leadership of the country was very active and deeply engaged in the pre-election campaign. a month and a half or two ago, they even temporarily resigned and became fully involved in it. They had polling data and a clear understanding of public sentiment through contact with the electorate. Everything was done to get just such a result.
According to all polls exclusively, the rating of the government was relatively low at the beginning of the campaign, but then increased significantly. The holding of the European Political Community summit contributed to this, which in itself added a few percent to the rating. The campaign was clearly calculated and led to the necessary results, which the government considers good for itself.
VERELQ. The loss of the constitutional majority logically requires the ruling power to be more flexible and willing to make compromises with the parliamentary opposition. However, during the press conference, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan actually rejected that scenario. What do you think his intransigent position is related to?
Hrant Mikayelyan. If we talk about flexibility and compromises, the following fact should be taken into account. the government eventually received three-fifths of the mandates. The point is that after the twelve-hour counting of votes, the fourth political force, “Prosperous Armenia”, collected 3.996% and did not enter the parliament. As a result, his votes were redistributed and the majority of them went to the ruling party.
This will allow him not only to form a government, but also to get the same three-fifths of mandates, which are enough to appoint, for example, the Prosecutor General and representatives of the judiciary. Thus, the authorities will retain full control over the judicial system, and it has no need to cooperate with the opposition. We should look not at the obtained percentages or public opinion, but at the mandates themselves. And in terms of the distribution of mandates, everything is fine with the government, so there is no need to agree.
VERELQ. Do you foresee further strengthening of polarization in Armenian politics and society? If so, what are the consequences for the pregnant country?
Hrant Mikayelyan. Yes, I foresee a further strengthening of the polarization. On the one hand, we have seen that consolidation has strengthened in recent months. the authorities conducted a really effective pre-election campaign, using all available methods. However, such an artificial accumulation of votes before the elections will not allow to maintain a high rating indefinitely. The ruling party peaked on election day, and then inevitably began a rapid decline.
The further development of the situation will depend on real successes in the economy, in politics and the actions of the opposition. Since fundamental foreign political and structural economic changes are not planned, all conditions for maintaining the current internal political and social status quo will remain in force. As a result, polarization will begin to increase again. What exactly this will lead to, I don’t want to speculate for now, because geopolitics has an extremely serious impact on Armenia’s internal agenda, and the situation is quite difficult to predict. But it can be said with confidence. at least for some time, the government will keep what is happening under control, and what will happen later, time will tell.
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