Category: 2023

July 27 2023

ISTANBUL 

Azerbaijan on Thursday said that a recent statement by the EU foreign policy chief on the current situation in the Karabakh region is “regrettable.”

“The presented approach towards the situation in the region by (EU) High Representative (for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) Josep Borrell in his July 26 statement, based on the propaganda and political manipulations spread by Armenia, is regrettable,” Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizada said in a statement.

Hajizada said that Baku appreciates the EU’s support “to establish peace and stability in the region, as well as to the peace negotiations with Armenia,” but “ignoring” the grievances of Azerbaijan regarding the incomplete withdrawal of the Armenian forces from the region and presenting Azerbaijan’s establishment of a border checkpoint on the Lachin road as its closure is “fundamentally wrong.”

“Similarly, it must be made clear that the blatant misinterpretation of the relevant decisions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will not yield results,” Hajizada said, indicating that an ICJ decision earlier this month “once more demonstrated that the protection of its own security by Azerbaijan is legitimate.”

On July 6, the ICJ unanimously rejected Yerevan’s request to modify the court’s February 2022 decision on the “Armenia v. Azerbaijan” case, in which one of its demands was to remove the border checkpoint established by Baku at the entrance of the Lachin road.

On Wednesday, Borrell said that the EU is "deeply concerned about the serious humanitarian situation" in the region, while also claiming that movement through the Lachin road "remains obstructed for more than seven months."

Responding to the claim, Hajizada said that vehicles belonging to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) pass through the road on a daily basis and that Azerbaijan continues to cooperate with the ICRC and facilitate the passage of medical supplies.

He further said that Azerbaijan made a proposal to use the Aghdam-Khankendi road and other alternative routes into the region for the transport of large amounts of cargo, while “taking into account threats originating from Armenia.”

Relations between the two former Soviet republics have been tense since 1991 when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.

In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan liberated several cities, villages and settlements from Armenian occupation during 44 days of fighting. The war ended with a Russia-brokered peace agreement.

Despite ongoing talks on a peace agreement, tensions between the neighboring countries increased in recent months concerning the Lachin road, the only land route giving Armenia access to Karabakh.

July 27 2023

There seems to be no end in sight for Azerbaijan’s blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, now in its seventh month.

The Lachin corridor, the only road that links the contested region to Armenia, has been blocked for more than 200 days, sparking a humanitarian emergency as food, energy and medical care becomes increasingly scarce.

The tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians living in the region are thus faced with a stark choice: either acquire Azerbaijani citizenship or leave the small enclave that has been at the heart of conflict between the neighbouring states for 35 years. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory, yet its Armenian population claims independence.

In mid-July, in the latest round of Western-mediated peace talks that have run for more than a year, Armenia and Azerbaijan showed some readiness to recognise each other’s territorial integrity. But differing views on Karabakh’s future persist. Azerbaijan continues to resist calls to lift the Lachin corridor blockade and accuses Armenians in Karabakh of escalating activity against Azerbaijan. Armenia says it will recognise Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan only if there are international mechanisms to protect the enclave’s ethnic Armenian population, which Azerbaijan rejects.

Unsurprisingly, for the European Union (EU), which mediated the latest talks, and regional power broker Russia, which has offered to host “a trilateral meeting” in Moscow very soon, their own interests – namely the conflict in Ukraine – take priority in the Karabakh confrontation.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been blockaded since 12 December 2022, when protesters claiming to be ‘eco-activists’ took to the streets. They alleged that illegal gold mining in Karabakh was causing environmental harm. Observers suggested the blockade was backed by Azerbaijan, which was denied by authorities in Baku, the capital.

The ‘eco-activists’ ended their protest in April, when Azerbaijani border guards established a checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin corridor, justified with claims that Armenia was using the road to send troops, weapons and ammunition to Karabakh. Armenia denied this, while Azerbaijan released videos of military-looking trucks being escorted by Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. What the vehicles contained and whether or not Armenian soldiers were in them remains uncertain. Either way, the checkpoint’s installation violated the Russia-backed Trilateral Agreement that ended Azerbaijan’s six-week full-scale offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh in November 2020. The agreement guaranteed unimpeded traffic through the Lachin corridor.

On 15 June, the flow of goods and humanitarian aid along the Lachin corridor came to a complete halt following a shootout at the checkpoint. Authorities in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, said Azerbaijani border guards had attempted to plant their national flag in an area claimed by Armenia, while Russian peacekeepers looked on. Armenia opened fire and the exchange left one border guard wounded on each side.

Ever since, Azerbaijani border patrol units have blocked Russian peacekeepers and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) from delivering humanitarian aid to the region, accusing the latter of “smuggling” goods. The ICRC is currently allowed to transport patients requiring urgent medical care to Armenia, but Azerbaijani medical personnel examine them at the border. The organisation says this practice is exacerbating Karabakh’s already dire situation.

As a result, Nagorno-Karabakh continues to experience severe shortages of food, baby food, fuel, medicine, hygiene and personal care items. The enclave previously relied on imports from Armenia, even for fresh fruit and vegetables, and the interrupted gas and electricity supply, which passes through Azerbaijan, is hindering local efforts to meet demands. Local media regularly shows empty supermarket shelves and long queues outside bakeries, with people waiting hours for just a couple of loaves of bread.

With rising unemployment and soaring prices of essential goods, the de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh have introduced food stamps. Adding to the hardships faced by Karabakh’s people are dwindling fuel supplies, which mean uncertain goods deliveries, reduced private car usage and decreased public transport schedule. There has been a rise in miscarriages and premature births due to stress, poor nutrition and lack of essential medicines, according to Amnesty International, which cited doctors in Karabakh.

In one tragic episode in early July, two young children – Leo and Gita Narimanyan, aged three and six respectively – lost their lives while searching for their mother, who had left them unattended while she went to collect the family’s food allowance. The children, who had sought shelter in an unlocked car, ended up suffocating in what the Karabakh police suggested was vehicular heatstroke. (Another law-enforcement body has cautioned that this is just one of the theories being investigated.)

Azerbaijan denies imposing a blockade, using its state media to release videos that supposedly show Karabakh residents passing through passport control at a checkpoint. In January, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev offered Karabakh Armenians a stark choice: accept Azerbaijani citizenship and the promise of security and equal rights, or leave altogether. “The road is not closed,” Aliyev said, “it is open.”

But Karabakh Armenians profoundly distrust Azerbaijan’s promises of security. They accuse the Azerbaijani military of repeatedly violating the ceasefire and shooting dead soldiers and civilians. War crimes reportedly committed against Armenian civilians and captured soldiers, as well as gross human rights violations in Azerbaijan, further erode trust. Indeed, Karabakh and the Armenian authorities have accused Baku of carrying out a programme of ethnic cleansing.

Azerbaijan is yet to present any plans to better integrate the Karabakh Armenian population and has done nothing to de-escalate hostility. In May, Aliyev demanded the de facto authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh surrender and promised them amnesty, but he threatened force if they did not comply.

International human rights organisations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have strongly condemned the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. Resolutions have been passed by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the European Parliament and the International Court of Justice. All have called on Azerbaijan to restore unhindered movement along the Lachin corridor, but these calls remain unheeded.

Baku’s intention may be to make life in Nagorno-Karabakh unbearable, forcing inhabitants to leave. This strategy would effectively achieve a ‘bloodless’ ethnic cleansing and sidestep the need to address Karabakh Armenians’ social and economic integration issues.

On 21 July, Aliyev appeared to take responsibility for armed escalations against Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia over the past three years. In referring to these incidents as “messages” to Armenia, Azerbaijan’s president basically admitted that Baku was using military pressure as its main negotiating tactic over Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev also declared that international law is ineffective as Armenian troops remain in Nagorno-Karabakh and force was the only guarantee of peace as signatures on agreements have little authority.

Even so, the Armenian leadership has generally adopted a more peaceable tone. On 25 July, prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said he was ready to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, based on mutual recognition of territorial integrity. This, he said, was in line with the agreement reached during the talks held in Brussels this month, which were mediated by European Council president Charles Michel.

The Karabakh blockade continues but so do the peace talks, with each round accompanied by claims of progress. In reality, meaningful developments remain scarce.

July 27 2023

July 27 2023

Azerbaijan is accused of throttling the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh — setting off a crisis in relations with the European Union just as the country becomes an increasingly important fossil fuel supplier to replace imports from Russia.

Members of the European Parliament are demanding action, and late Wednesday the EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell said that the bloc is "deeply concerned" about the worsening humanitarian situation in the region.

Worry is growing over the risk of famine in Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region inside Azerbaijan's internationally recognized borders. The Armenian population declared independence after a brutal war in the early 1990s, but Azerbaijan reversed many of those gains in a lightning campaign in 2020.

Since December, the only road in or out of the mountainous territory has been under the control of Azerbaijan's armed forces and, for the past two weeks, local officials say a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor linking Karabakh with Armenia has been closed to civilian traffic and supply trucks.

In a statement Tuesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross, which has been bringing food and medicine to the tens of thousands of Armenians in Karabakh, said that "despite persistent efforts, we are currently unable to deliver aid."

"People lack life-saving medication and essentials like hygiene products and baby formula. Fruits, vegetables, and bread are increasingly scarce and costly. Other food items such as dairy products, sunflower oil, cereal, fish, and chicken are unavailable," it added. Miscarriages have tripled in the past month as a result of malnutrition, one doctor told local media.

A day earlier, the president of the unrecognized local Armenian administration, Arayik Harutyunyan, declared that it had become a "disaster zone" and called on international organizations, foreign nations and the U.N. to urgently intervene.

Over the weekend, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that a repeat of the 2020 war is now "very likely." He accused Baku of laying the foundations for "genocide" in the region.

Azerbaijan denies it is blockading Nagorno-Karabakh, and has offered to provide aid by a road from Aghdam, a regional hub it regained in 2020, almost totally leveled during three decades of Armenian control.

Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry called Borrell's statement "regrettable" and said it was driven by “propaganda and political manipulations spread by Armenia."

Responding to a question from POLITICO, Harutyunyan insisted that his government is unable to accept the offer because, "Azerbaijan created this crisis and cannot be the solution to it."

Local officials fear that becoming dependent on Baku for supplies would effectively end their independence and make them vulnerable to future shut-offs.

However, Azerbaijan's foreign policy chief, Hikmet Hajiyev, declared this week that the international community should press the local Armenians to accept supplies via Aghdam, insisting "there is no other way! Game over!"

The EU is slowly waking up to the crisis. Borrell said Azerbaijan is disregarding an International Court of Justice ruling mandating that it keep the road open. He added that the Aghdam route "should not be seen as an alternative" to the Lachin Corridor.

In its response, Baku accused the bloc’s top envoy of a “blatant misinterpretation” of the International Court of Justice ruling. 

The EU has a long-standing interest in the region.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen jetted to Baku last year, hailed the country as a "crucial energy partner" and signed a deal to double the EU's purchases of Azerbaijani gas.

After Azerbaijan launched a series of incursions into Armenia last year, Brussels signed off on a Common Security and Defense Policy monitoring mission along the border in the hope of preventing future bloodshed.

Nathalie Loiseau, the chair of the European Parliament's defense committee, said the EU should go further than just voicing concern and impose "targeted sanctions" on Azerbaijani officials "responsible for hate speech and illegal decisions," arguing that the bloc's status as a mediator shouldn't prevent it from standing up for its self-declared values.

Nor, she said, should its energy ties with Baku weaken its leverage, because "in a trade relationship, both partners are dependent."

The EU has repeatedly cautioned that what it sees as inflammatory rhetoric is a threat to peace in the region. Despite that, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has threatened to "chase away" Armenian separatists "like dogs" and Baku previously issued a commemorative postage stamp featuring a worker in hazmat gear spraying disinfectant on the region.

Brussels' External Action Service has dispatched its civilian monitors to the start of the Lachin Corridor to "get first hand and verified information on current developments."

However, according to François-Xavier Bellamy, a French MEP who sits on the Parliament's energy committee, it appears there simply isn't the political will in Brussels to do anything more substantive at present.

“It’s becoming a case of Parliament vs. the Commission. We’ve tabled questions, we had a debate and now Parliament has voted to support a settled position on introducing sanctions on Azerbaijan," he said. "But if the Commission won’t listen, what else can we do?”

According to Laurence Broers, a leading analyst on the conflict and an associate fellow at Chatham House, the EU is trying to "compartmentalize" its role in the peace process to avoid damaging its relations with Armenia or Azerbaijan.

"We have seen some friction in the messaging between different parts of the EU, with the European Parliament taking a stronger normative stand," he said. "Those parts of the EU more directly engaged with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict have tended to rely more on positive incentives rather than negative disincentives."

European Council President Charles Michel has spearheaded a series of trilateral talks in Brussels, bringing together Aliyev and Pashinyan. However, the situation on the ground has continued to worsen.

"Michel's rhetoric is well received in Baku," said Rusif Huseynov, director of Azerbaijan's Topchubashov Center think tank. "He refers to Azerbaijani territorial integrity, he mentioned the Aghdam route as an alternative. Critical voices from MEPs of course are a source of irritation in Baku, but I don't think there's too much concern because Azerbaijan has good relations at the level of Charles Michel and von der Leyen."

A spokesperson for Michel declined to comment on whether the EU needs to step up its response to the growing humanitarian catastrophe, saying only that a press release issued two weeks ago had details of yet more talks planned for after the summer holidays.

"That answers your question," the official said.

July 27 2023

Recent reports in Azerbaijani media claim that the first consignment of India’s Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher System (MBRLS) has been delivered to Armenia via Iran. According to media reports, the shipment has really upset Azerbaijan, which is at odds with Armenia.

India’s reported sale of the Pinaka MBRLS to Armenia under an export contract valued at US $250M has been a breakthrough in defense exports as India looks to become a key defense exporter.

The export contract was likely for the Pinaka Mk-1 MBRLS and not the Pinaka Mk-2 or Pinaka Mk-2 EPRS. The longer-range Pinaka-2 systems, with optional (INS/GPS) guided rockets, had cleared user trials, but their production has most likely not begun.

In contrast, the first Pinaka Mk-1 Indian Army regiment was raised in February 2000. Production of the Pinaka Mk-1 system is underway, and the Indian Army is fielding 10 Pinaka Mk-1 regiments.

Besides ongoing system production, the production capacity for Pinaka Mk-1 rockets is well established and exceeds 5,000 per annum. As a result, India can easily export the system without affecting its defense readiness.

Pinaka Mk-1 is a free-flight artillery rocket area bombardment system with a range of 38 kilometers, quick reaction time, and a high rate of fire. A single Pinaka system fires a salvo of 12 rockets from a multi-barrel launcher in 44 seconds, while a battery can fire 72 rockets.

The 214mm bore Pinaka rocket has a payload of 100 kilograms and can be fitted with various warheads like anti-tank mines and blast-cum-pre-fragmented high explosives.

A battery of Pinaka consists of six launcher systems, six loader-cum-replenishment vehicles, three replenishment vehicles, and a command post vehicle with a fire control computer and meteorological radar.

Over 7.2 tons of payload in the form of lethal warheads can be delivered up to a range of 38 kilometers and effectively neutralize a target area of 1000 meters by 800 meters. A Pinaka regiment comprises three batteries plus reserves.

Armenian defense forces are mostly equipped with Soviet-era defense systems. In 2015 Armenia bought some newer Russian systems. Because of its Special Military Operation underway in Ukraine, Russia is likely unable to meet additional Armenian weapon system requirements.

The DRDO developed the Pinaka system as a replacement for the Russian GRAD BM-21, which equips the Armenian armed forces. Another important reason for Armenia’s choice was likely its adversary Azerbaijan’s heavy use of drones, including suicide drones.

For an MBRLS to survive in a drone-saturated battlefield, it must have the ability to shoot and then disappear quickly. The Pinaka Mk-1 has precisely that ability.

It requires no separate survey to position and orient, making the launcher autonomous. The launcher features brushless servo motors/drives that facilitate quick laying with accuracy within one milli-radian, allowing the system to respond to fire requests quickly.

Shoot and Scoot capability enables the launcher to escape the counter-battery fire. Pinaka support vehicles have matching mobility and logistics commonalities.

Other reasons for the Armenian choice are likely to be low cost, ready availability, simplicity of operations, assured supply of spares, and availability of future upgrades.

It would be easy for the Armenian Army to absorb the Pinaka Mk-1 MBRLS based on its familiarity with the Grad system. Our established production capacity for the system and rockets guarantees an unrestricted supply of spares and ammunition.

India has already developed and tested an enhanced capability Pinaka Mk-2 system with range & accuracy at par with the US M270 & HIMARS.

The Pinaka MBRLS export contract is the first genuinely indigenous system with near-zero import content. In the past, major weapon systems exported by India, such as the Dhruv helicopter and Brahmos missile, have featured major foreign OEM assemblies. Export earnings were split between India & the OEMs.

The Pinaka MBRLS was developed in partnership with private sector Tata Electric and L&T, who developed the Launcher and Command Post Vehicle, OFB (Ordnance Factory Board), which developed the rocket, and OFB and Bharat Earth Movers Ltd (BEML), who together developed the Loader-cum-Replenishment Vehicle.

The Indian defense industry, including the public and private sectors, has made significant investments in establishing a production capacity for over 5,000 Pinaka rockets.

The export of the Pinaka Mk-1 to Armenia, where the MBRLS could be used extensively in its ongoing hostilities against Azerbaijan consuming spares and ammunition, will ensure that our production capacities don’t languish and the jobs associated with the abilities remain secure.

If the Indian defense industry is to flourish, such export orders are essential. Production costs are dependent on the length of production order runs. The longer the runs, the greater the profits and incentives for private-sector investments.

Exporting a major weapon system to a combatant during hostilities represents a significant paradigm shift in India’s defense export policy. The export marks a sharp & bold departure in Indian foreign policy, which hitherto was averse to meddling in conflict zones.

The export heralds India’s coming of age as a significant power in the emerging multi-polar world. Some leading defense hardware exporting countries like the US, Israel, and France have thrived on exports to conflict zones.

There is no reason for India to shy away from doing the same. India has to seize opportunities when they arise and establish itself as a reliable defense partner if it wants to grow in stature on the world stage.

Such a bold policy will encourage Indian private sector investments in the defense sector more than unending tweaks in our DPP (Defense Procurement Policy).

Senior DRDO officials have asserted in the recent past that Indian rocket and missile technology has matured to a level that can be considered world-class. Consequently, the MoD has banned future imports of missile systems.

The recent successful maiden tests of the VSHORADS (Very Short Range AD System) suggest that the DRDO has seized the initiative to develop missile systems with no global analogs.

DRDO’s sustained efforts to master missile technology over many decades will yield even more promising results. The Pinaka MBRLS is likely just the first of many missile systems that India will export in the future.

Hopefully, the newfound boldness in our foreign policy will persist and facilitate India’s emergence as a great power.

• Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot. He is also an author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
• Article Republished Due To Readers’ Interest

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/at-par-with-himars-why-indian-pinaka-mbrls-for-armenia/

July 27 2023