Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faces mounting Russian pressure as Yerevan moves closer to the EU amid fears of political interference and regional destabilisation
Armenia is heading toward one of the most consequential elections in its post-Soviet history, with the parliamentary vote on 7 June increasingly framed as a geopolitical choice between continued alignment with Russia and gradual integration with the European Union.
The political stakes have risen sharply in recent weeks following accusations by Armenian officials that Moscow is attempting to influence the country’s internal political process and reverse Yerevan’s growing rapprochement with Europe.
At the beginning of May, Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan accused Russia of seeking to carry out a “political operation” aimed at seizing control of Armenia’s institutions through the upcoming elections.
“If in Ukraine they are trying to advance their interests through military means, in Armenia there is an attempt at a political operation – the seizure of power”, Simonyan said, adding that Armenia would not allow itself to become a Russian “province” or be governed “like Belarus”.
The remarks triggered strong reactions from both Moscow and Minsk, but tensions escalated further after Yerevan hosted the summit of the European Political Community and the first-ever Armenia-EU summit last week, attended by several European leaders as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Russia’s foreign ministry accused Europe of attempting to pull Armenia into an “anti-Russian orbit”, while Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Yerevan against following what he described as the “Ukrainian scenario”.
“We all see what is happening to Ukraine now. But how did it begin? With Ukraine’s attempt to join the EU”, Putin said on 9 May.
At the same time, the Kremlin leader suggested that Russia could agree to a “soft, intelligent and mutually beneficial separation” from Armenia if the country held a national referendum and society openly chose a European path.
While Armenian authorities rejected the idea of organising a referendum under Russian pressure, the upcoming parliamentary elections are increasingly being viewed domestically as a de facto vote on the country’s geopolitical orientation.
A new victory for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would likely be interpreted as a public mandate for deeper ties with the EU and further distancing from Moscow’s sphere of influence.
The EU-Armenia summit declaration adopted in Yerevan recognised “the European aspirations of the Armenian people” following Armenia’s adoption in March 2025 of a law launching the process of EU accession.
Although the declaration stopped short of offering any formal membership perspective, Armenian political circles interpreted the language as a signal that Brussels is willing to begin discussing Armenia’s long-term European future.
According to Armenian political analyst Ruben Mehrabyan, the summit demonstrated that the EU “has the political will to talk to Armenia about accession”.
At the same time, Armenian officials remain cautious about moving too quickly. One of the main obstacles continues to be the absence of a comprehensive peace agreement with Azerbaijan following years of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Officials in Yerevan reportedly fear that a rapid geopolitical break with Moscow before securing stable relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey could expose Armenia to major security risks.
The unresolved constitutional dispute over references to Artsakh, the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh, remains a key sticking point in negotiations with Baku. Azerbaijani authorities insist that such references represent territorial claims and must be removed before a final peace agreement can be signed.
Any constitutional amendment, however, would require a national referendum – something Pashinyan has so far avoided. Political observers believe that a renewed parliamentary mandate could give his government the political space needed to organise such a vote after the election.
The electoral campaign itself increasingly reflects the broader geopolitical divide.
Polling published in May by EVN Report suggested that Pashinyan’s party could secure around 32.5% support, placing it well ahead of several fragmented pro-Russian opposition forces.
Among them is the “Strong Armenia” bloc associated with businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who reportedly enjoys Kremlin backing and currently remains under house arrest on accusations linked to an alleged coup attempt.
Former president Robert Kocharyan, long regarded as one of Moscow’s closest allies in Armenian politics, trails further behind, according to the same survey.
Pashinyan’s campaign has focused heavily on domestic modernisation and infrastructure development rather than foreign policy slogans. His political messaging increasingly portrays his government as the “party of peace”, contrasting it with opposition forces that continue to advocate closer strategic alignment with Russia and a harder line on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia, however, appears determined to prevent Armenia’s continued westward drift.
During a meeting with Pashinyan in April, Putin openly criticised Armenia’s growing cooperation with the EU, warning that simultaneous integration with both the European Union and the Russian-led Eurasian structures would be impossible.
Moscow has also begun introducing economic pressure measures. In recent weeks, Russia reportedly restricted imports of Armenian mineral water and products from the Proshyan Brandy Factory, fuelling concerns in Yerevan that the Kremlin could intensify trade restrictions closer to election day.
Armenian authorities are also preparing for possible post-election destabilisation attempts if pro-European forces retain power.
French President Emmanuel Macron recently described Armenia’s transformation as remarkable, noting that only eight years ago the country had effectively been viewed internationally as a Russian satellite.
The 7 June elections may now determine whether Armenia continues moving toward Europe or faces renewed pressure to remain within Moscow’s geopolitical orbit.
The original article by EUalive’s parner European Pravda in Ukrainian can be found here.