Category: 2023

When the drumbeat of artillery began on 19 September, six-year-old Robert Khosrovyan was ambling home from school. Instead of taking the usual path, he fled down a rocky embankment to reach his house in Chartar, a town in the self-declared Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. 

His parents, mad with worry, went in search of him when his classmates returned without him. Unbeknown to them, Robert had crept into an outhouse on their property and crawled into a fridge to hide from the Azeri soldiers he had learned to fear, refusing to show himself even when his loved ones screamed his name. He stayed there for hours before they found him.

Days later, when Azeri soldiers swarmed their settlement, Robert’s mother, Arevik Grigoryan, a caretaker at a local school, watched them laugh as they brandished their knives at the children who cowered at the edge of the town square. Then they went door to door, Arevik said, looking through the bundles that families had hastily packed and tearing open the women’s handbags, helping themselves to whatever they wished. This encounter, while terrifying, might have been far worse if not for a curt bark from a unit commander telling the soldiers to sheave their weapons.

An abandoned municipal schoolbus was a blessing for Arevik and her family. Ernest (left) with Robert, grandmother and siblings. Photo: Joseph Draper

Arevik and her husband Ernest Khosrovyan, a construction worker, found an abandoned school bus which they filled with their nine children and 24 other locals before collecting relatives at the Karabakh capital of Stepanekurt and fleeing for the Armenian border, stopped along the way by Azeri soldiers who searched their vehicle and took photos of the men. They had survived a nine-month blockade, when Azerbaijan closed the only road to Armenia from Karabakh, choking those inside of food and supplies from the outside world. Now they were leaving their homeland forever, along with over 100,000 others, almost the entire population of Artsakh – the Armenian name for Karabakh. 

When Azerbaijan launched its brutal blitzkrieg to reclaim the mountainous enclave, killing over 200 people, including at least 10 civilians, according to estimates by Karabakh officials, stories of atrocities followed the tide of refugees. While these claims have not yet been verified, they have a precedent; In 2020, when Azeri forces captured land around Karabakh, they were known to mutilate Armenian soldiers and behead elderly civilians who had not fled.

An exhausted Karabakh refugee sleeps in Goris. Photo: Anoush Baghdassarian, Rerooted Archive

Anoush Bagdassarian, an American human rights lawyer collecting evidence of Azeri war crimes, spent days interviewing refugees flooding into the Armenian border town of Goris. She told me of Maria, a middle-aged woman from Martakert whose relative, an elderly grandmother in the town, died with her nine-year-old grandson in her arms when a bomb struck their home.

“People feel scared, incredibly vulnerable and traumatised,” Anoush said.

A Karabakh refugee with her belongings in Goris. Photo: Anoush Baghdassarian, Rerooted Archive

“The majority of people I asked answered ‘how can we live together when they have beheaded us, killed our children, and made very clear their intentions about ridding the world of Armenians?’” 

Then there were the deaths caused by months of deliberate deprivation. As one man who spoke to Anoush described it, “they choked the very air to breathe.” Parkev Aghababyan, a father of two from Askeran and his wife, Anush, witnessed one child die of an epileptic fit after he ran out of medication and another boy, just 10 years old, perish after being shoved to the ground where he struck his head on the concrete pavement when a fight broke out over bread in the final days of the Azeri blockade. “He died right there, within minutes,” Anush said in her testimony. 

Such stories imbue the seemingly harmless text messages, sent by Azeri authorities to Kharabakh Armenians during their offensive, with a cruel and sinister irony. These texts, which supported Azerbaijan’s claims that they wanted the local populace to stay, added to the fog of confusion after they hijacked the communications infrastructure, preventing locals from connecting with the outside world or with each other. “Peace developments and bright days are close in Karabakh,” read one, while another read: “Azerbaijani government guarantees your safety.”

In his office in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, Tigran Grigoryan, an analyst on the conflict with Azerbaijan who grew up in Karabakh before leaving in 2020, struggled to articulate the grief felt by his people. “Psychologically, emotionally, Artsakh is like an Armenian Jerusalem,” he said. 

“There won’t be any homes left for these people to return to – they will be settled by Azerbaijanis.

“This is a catastrophe which will stay with us until our final days. There is no forgiving, there is no forgetting.”

The international community had planted the seeds of another conflict with their timid response to the crisis, Tigran said, emboldening Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president, IIham Aliyev, and increasing the odds that he will strike Armenia proper. This would not be the first time. Since 2020, Azeri soldiers have made several incursions into the province of Syunik.

“The international order isn’t working anymore,” Tigran said.

“We are living in a very dangerous time. There is a significant risk of an attack and there are no deterrents on the ground. Aliyev sees this as a weakness. He sees a unique window of opportunity.

“This is a jungle – whoever is strong can take what they want. It will be impossible to talk about peace in the South Caucasus.”

In the immediate term, Armenia must grapple with a humanitarian crisis as its population of less than three million absorbs thousands of traumatised refugees. Already, the country’s housing prices are inflated, Tigran told me, after a wave of Russians left their country following the invasion of Ukraine.

In Yerevan, one school had been turned into a makeshift refuge, while an army of volunteers at the Armenian General Benevolent Union delivered around 2,000 meals a day to refugees throughout the region. Arevik and her family, meanwhile, have found shelter at a farmhouse outside the city, packed six to a room with dozens of people from Karabakh including two other families.

I sat with them in their smoky living room as they crowded around a roaring iron stove. We were joined by Arevik’s sister, Nune Hovsepyan, and her three children, including her 22-month-old daughter. They had buried their father Artur just a day before. A soldier in the Karabakh military, he was shot defending his comrades on September 19, just a week before his 41st birthday. Among the small number of items they grabbed before fleeing was his military cap which they laid at the foot of his grave in Yerablur, a hilltop military cemetery overlooking Yerevan.

“He was told to go and get his other weapons”, Nune told me as her mother-in-law quietly wept beside her. “But he said, ‘no, I’m staying with my friends – I go wherever they go.’ If he’d listened he wouldn’t have been shot.” 

Outside, Ernest showed me the yellow bus which saved their lives. Arthur played with his siblings, stopping occasionally to consider me before bursting into flight again and skirting by with a roguish grin.

In the liquid haze of late evening the snowy peak of Mount Ararat, floating above it all, caught the pink gaze of the setting sun. The Armenians who look longingly at the biblical resting place of Noah’s Ark, now on the farside of the Turkish border, have a phrase for it: “Ours but not ours.” It is a reference to another mass tragedy: the genocide of 1915 to 1916 when over a million Armenians were killed and thousands more expelled from their homes in the ailing days of the Ottoman Empire. 

“When I heard about Artsakh, I suddenly felt I didn’t live in Armenia anymore,” I was told by Serena Hajjar, an American aid worker of Armenian descent. Serena, 26, relocated to the country after the 2020 war where she met her Karabakh husband and started a family.

“It doesn’t feel like the same place. We are a peaceful people but we became complacent,” she said.

“We need to be like Sparta, ready to fight at any time. 

“Aliyev will come for Syunik next. If he does, that will be the end for Armenia.”

Before I left Arevik and her family, they insisted I stay to break bread and drink homemade vodka, made with the mulberries they shook from the bushes around their Karabakh home. Toasting to better times, they had found a measure of happiness. For how long, I wondered, will it last?

A video compilation showing the detention of three former leaders of Azerbaijan’s disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has been falsely claimed online to show the capture of Israeli generals by the Islamist militant group Hamas.

The 30-second compilation of three clips shows men in military fatigues removing three individuals in handcuffs from vehicles.

Captioning the video, one Facebook user wrote on Oct. 8: “Breaking News Israel: Several high ranking IDF Generals have been seen captured with Hamas Terrorists”.

A video compilation showing the detention of three former leaders of Azerbaijan’s disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has been falsely claimed online to show the capture of Israeli generals by the Islamist militant group Hamas.

The 30-second compilation of three clips shows men in military fatigues removing three individuals in handcuffs from vehicles.

Captioning the video, one Facebook user wrote on Oct. 8: “Breaking News Israel: Several high ranking IDF Generals have been seen captured with Hamas Terrorists”.

Reuters reported on their arrests on Oct. 3.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally viewed as part of Azerbaijan but was run as a breakaway ethnic Armenian statelet until October, when Azerbaijan re-took control.

Miscaptioned. The video shows detention of Nagorno-Karabakh former leaders, not Israeli generals.

This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work.

Azerbaijan's swift victory in its September conflict with Armenia effectively brought a protracted conflict, dating back to 1988, to an end. 

Azerbaijan seized control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh territory where reports say more than 120,000 Armenians living in the enclave have now fled to Armenia. The president of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh dissolved all institutions of the disputed region.

The decisive victory, however, has also put Iran on notice about the changing dynamics in the region. 

To understand the current state of relations between Armenia, Iran and Azerbaijan, one must first appreciate their complex connections. 

On paper, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Armenia, one of the oldest Christian communities in the world, make for unusual close allies.

But over the past three decades, both countries, which share a border, have developed close political ties. Iran has even extended electricity to Armenia during periods of energy shortages, strengthening their bilateral links. 

Conversely, Iran's relationship with Azerbaijan, which shares ethnic, linguistic and religious ties, has been riven with tensions. 

Earlier this year, Middle East Eye reported on a growing chorus of voices in Iran calling for more aggressive policies against Azerbaijan. 

Iran, at least publicly, has supported Azerbaijan's territorial integrity legally, and politically it couldn't stand against it. 

According to Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on geopolitics and security in the Middle East at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Iranian policymakers are mainly preoccupied with the broader implications of Azerbaijan taking the upper hand in the region and the wider geopolitical and geo-economic ramifications of that.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked a significant turning point in the region. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan emerged as newly independent states, while Iran reasserted itself as a key player in the changing political landscape alongside Russia. 

Now Turkey and Israel, which have been Azerbaijan's main military and political backers, are driving changes in the regional order. 

"Geo-economically speaking, Iran's main concern is the potential establishment of the Zangezur corridor," Azizi told MEE. 

The Zangezur corridor is a strategically significant narrow strip of land in Armenia's Syunik province, which separates the main part of Azerbaijan from the Nakhchivan, an autonomous exclave of Azerbaijan.

This corridor, approximately 3.5km wide at its narrowest point, would serve as the only land connection between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, which is also connected to Turkey. 

Both Turkey and Azerbaijan have called for the corridor to be opened, which could have important implications for Iran. 

For one, said Azizi, it would "significantly decrease the importance of Iran in any future Chinese plan for the region within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative".

The move to create the Zangezur corridor would also have geopolitical implications. 

"It has been indicated by Azeri officials from time to time that setting up the Zangezur corridor would somehow involve Iran losing its land access to Armenia," Azizi said.

Various arrangements have been floated including an internationally controlled corridor, which, if it went through Syunik province, "would be a geopolitical catastrophe" for Iran, he said.

At the end of the 44-day Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia, which stated that "all economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked".

It also stated that Armenia would guarantee the security of transport connections between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.

For Azerbaijan, that implied the creation of the Zangezur corridor. In Tehran, that implies the limiting of its geopolitical options and increased dependence on Azerbaijan, which has close ties to Israel, Iran's arch-enemy and Ankara's regional competitor. 

Iran's fear is not about Karabakh per se, said Azizi, but what it implies about Azerbaijan's phased approach in meeting all its objectives. 

"Baku retaking Nagorno Karabakh is a prelude to the establishment of the Zangezur corridor. That's what alarms Iran," he said. 

Despite strong opposition, Iran's ability to respond is so far limited. Russia has indicated that it is willing to accept some sort of accommodation, its hand weakened following the war in Ukraine.  

Though Iran might not want to admit it, Tehran no longer enjoys the backing of Russia, its main partner in the region. Azizi said. "Not only is Russia not supporting Armenia, but it actually sides with Turkey."

Within Iran, maintaining an open border with Armenia has become a "matter of patriotism and nationalism", said Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Ham-Mihan, an Iranian newspaper. 

"Public opinion towards this matter is that Iranians even support their government's military approach against any actions on the border with Armenia, if it is a necessity." 

In Iran, memories of losing control over various Caucasus territories in the early 19th century following wars with Russia, including modern-day Azerbaijan, Georgia, Dagestan, Armenia, and Igdir in Turkey, continue to rankle in nationalist quarters. 

'Iran now is faced with two countries with clear borders, and it has to choose whether it wants to go on through cooperation with the two or animosity with one'

- Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at Ham-Mihan

Similar ideas also permeate Turkish society, where a land corridor with Azerbaijan is seen as a gateway into Central Asia and a means to reconnect with other Turkic states. 

Beyond historical grievances, policymakers in Iran now have to tread a finer line than before, said Montazeri. 

"Iran now is faced with two countries with clear borders, and it has to choose whether it wants to go on through cooperation with the two or animosity with one. And I think this shift will also have an impact on Iran public opinion," added Montazeri.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tried to allay Iranian fears by suggesting that Tehran would be included in plans to create common prosperity amongst the countries.

"When Erdogan said that Iran has no problem with the Zangezur corridor, Iranian officials did not deny that," said Montazeri, adding that it means that Tehran is "willing to talk about the idea".

Such assurances from Turkey, however, will have to contend with lingering suspicions within Iran, said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. 

Azerbaijan, having achieved significant territorial gains, is likely to focus on consolidating its control over the newly acquired territories while maintaining its strategic energy interests with Iran. 

Armenia, on the other hand, faces the daunting task of rebuilding its economy, incorporating an influx of refugees, and coming to terms with the new geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus.

Meanwhile, Iran has to contend with two long-standing concerns with regards to Azerbaijan that have been compounded in the aftermath of the 2020 conflict, Vaez said.

"The first is related to Iran's own apprehensions about its territorial integrity. Nearly a third of Iran's nearly 88 million citizens are ethnic Azeris, who speak a Turkic mother tongue and mainly reside in the country's northwestern provinces bordering Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey," Vaez told MEE. 

"Tehran has historically feared irredentist sentiment among its Azeri population, and remains acutely sensitive to what it perceives as pan-Turkic rhetoric across Azerbaijan, as well as the broader South Caucasus and Central Asia."

In a sign of support towards Armenia, Iranian national security chief Ali Shamkhani met with his counterpart, Armen Grigoryan, earlier this month. 

"Tension and conflict in the Caucasus region are not in the interest of any country," said Shamkhani. 

In a press conference on Monday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanani, while expressing support for Azerbaijan's reclamation of the separatist Karabakh region, warned that it strongly remains "against making geopolitical changes in the region and this is our clear position".

In the past Iran has even conducted military drills on the border with Azerbaijan, and opened a consulate in Kapan, the capital of Syunik province, "as a means of expressing its opposition to any change of borders in that region," said Vaez.

For Azizi, a direct conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could see Iran potentially providing drones. 

“There could be quite a few wild-card scenarios and unpredictable circumstances," in such a situation where Russia and Turkey retain important roles in the region, said Azizi. 

Only if the threat from Israel towards Iran were to become "immediate" could it potentially push Iran to take extreme measures, but short of that "it's really complicated, and Tehran's options are much more limited compared to the past," concluded Azizi.

Oct 10 (Reuters) – Armenia's prime minister said on Tuesday that plans were proceeding for a meeting with the president of Azerbaijan to discuss a durable peace accord, after Azeri forces took control of the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh last month.

In comments reported by Russian news agencies, Nikol Pashinyan also told Armenian television that tensions had subsided on the border between the two ex-Soviet states.

Armenia, he said, was willing to resolve outstanding issues, like opening transport corridors across each other's territory.

Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev have held a series of meetings – arranged in turn by Russia, the European Union or the United States – with the aim of resolving disputes over Nagorno-Karabakh, the object of two wars in 30 years between the neighbours.

"We and Azerbaijan have both announced our readiness to hold this meeting and this will means a step towards," Pashinyan was quoted as saying. "It means that in the course of two to three months the likelihood of signing a peace treaty is 70 percent."

A top Russian security official, Nikolai Patrushev, met Aliyev in Baku, Russian news agencies reported on Tuesday.

Azerbaijan launched a lightning military operation last month to take full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region run for three decades by leaders of the ethnic Armenian population.

The territory has long been recognised as part of Azerbaijan but Armenian separatists took control of it in a war as the Soviet Union was collapsing in the 1990s.

Azeri forces recaptured stretches of territory in and around the enclave in a 2020 conflict – ended with a truce brokered by Russia – and restored full control last month. Generations of hostile relations between the two people prompted most of its 120,000 residents to flee to Armenia.

Pashinyan said earlier this year that Armenia was ready to acknowledge Azerbaijan's sovereignty over the region.

In his TV interview, Pashinyan said Armenia wanted to establish transport corridors across each country's territory – one of the other sticking points in attempts to sign a peace treaty.

"Opening up communications is in our interests," he said.

Pashinyan, who has complained that Russia has not fulfilled its obligations to help Armenia under a defence pact, also said his country saw no reason to change its relations with Moscow, including provision to keep a Russian base in Armenia.