Author: Alex Nanijanian

The authorities gave freedom to the banks, and the banks enjoy that freedom. By setting widespread high prices for intermediary services, they have been emptying the pockets of citizens and businesses for years. Nikol Pashinyan and members of the Communist Party, who once thought that banks were engaged in robbery, have turned the banking system into a scourge for citizens and businesses. Despite widespread complaints, nothing is being done to curb the banks’ appetite.

After massive complaints, recently, of course, the Central Bank decided to slightly reduce the commissions charged for cashless transactions with bank cards for small businesses. But they did it not because they are worried about small business and decided to curb the appetite of banks, but because the interests of the government demand it before the elections. Although it seems that the banks have also found an option to get out of that situation dry. They decided to replace those “losses” by increasing the price of other services.

The appetite of banks is great, especially in the credit market. There is no way they want to reduce the interest on loans, despite the fact that money has become cheaper in the last few years. We are talking about the money leaving the Central Bank.

Three years ago, the price of money coming out of the Central Bank was 10.75 percent, today it is only 6.50 percent. It decreased by 4.25 percentage points.

This is a serious devaluation of money, which implies that the banks should also reduce the interest rates on loans provided by them to citizens and businesses. But the banks, enjoying the patronage and assistance of the government, continue to keep the price of loans high. Not only do they not reduce the loan interest, but they also increase it.

Three years ago, the average interest rate of dram loans with a term of up to 1 year in the banking system was 11.76 percent. At that time, the price of money or refinancing rate was extremely high, it was at the peak of the last years, it was 10.75 percent. And in the conditions of that peak, the loan interest rate was incomparably lower than now.

One year later, in 2024. in January, the price of money was 9.25 percent, and the average interest rate on short-term dram loans increased from 11.76 to 12.76 percent.

They increased the price by 1 percentage point, although the price of money decreased by 1.5 percentage points during that time.

Next: 2025 in January, the price of money coming out of the Central Bank fell sharply, making 7 percent, while interest rates on dram loans with a term of up to 1 year continued to rise, reaching 13 percent.

At the beginning of this year, banks increased the price of such loans again.

Now the price of money coming out of the Central Bank is 6.50 percent, and the average interest rate of short-term dram loans has reached a record 13.41 percent.

Over the course of three years, money became cheaper by 4.25 percentage points, and dram loans with a term of up to 1 year, instead of becoming cheaper, became more expensive by 1.65 percentage points. In the case of this type of loans, the bank margin is already incredibly high. As a result of this, banks get big profits, and these profits are primarily at the expense of citizens, taking into account the fact that short-term dram loans are primarily consumer loans, which citizens are often forced to use to solve their household problems.

Just 3 years ago, in the case of short-term dram loans, the bank margin was only 1 percentage point, now it is almost 7 times larger. The price of these loans is more than double the refinancing rate. This means that when the bank borrows money from the Central Bank at 6.50%, it raises that percentage at least twice and gives it to the citizens.

With such means, money is made at the expense of the citizens, and the authorities follow all this indifferently. Moreover, they do everything so that the banks do not reduce the interest rates on loans. What is needed for that? You just need to subsidize loan interest and keep demand artificially high.

Now they have decided to provide interest-free loans to the villagers on the eve of the elections. Interest-free to the extent that the state budget should cover those interests instead of the peasants. Banks will benefit from this. The victim, naturally, is the state budget. But who pays attention to this? The state’s money has no owner, and the government can afford such extravagances for political purposes. They take the money out of the budget and put it in the banks’ pockets.

According to the latest data, the loans of the banking system approach 21 billion dollars, of which the largest portfolio is short-term dram loans. Such loans, which are primarily of consumer importance, approach 5 billion dollars. They are not only expensive loans, but also, as we see, they are getting more and more expensive. The government is not doing anything to curb the appetite of the banks.

Even the steps of the Central Bank to lower the price of money, which at first glance tend to “force” banks to reduce loan interest rates, are not yielding results. But with the same logic that limited the price of trade mediation for small businesses, they do not intend to limit credit interest. Banks, for obvious reasons, do not tend to limit their own appetite.

And it turned out that as much as possible, they oppress people with expensive loans, they advance the interests of banks. Market pricing and demand have become an excuse to keep the price of loans artificially high.

 HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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“The war against Iran will continue for several weeks, the United States will try to find ways to turn the course of the war in favor of the United States and Israel, for which they should try to find an opportunity for a ground operation in the region.” 168.amexpressed a similar opinion in the conversation with Russian orientalist Viktor Nadein-Raevskyreferring to the global war against Iran unfolding in Armenia’s immediate neighborhood.

He believes that at this moment a difficult situation has arisen for the United States, because only the air force could not carry out a short-term operation and achieve the goals set before the United States, nor does extending the situation solve the problem of the United States by imposing US conditions on Iran.

According to him, the opposite is happening when Iran starts to hit the energy infrastructures in Israel, Qatar, UAE, closes the Strait of Hormuz, creating serious economic problems for the Trump administration, as well as accumulating both internal political dissatisfaction and external contradictions, particularly from Europe, which is the first to bear the consequences of this war and expensive energy carriers.

According to the analyst, maybe in the USA they will think about concentrating ground forces in the direction of Iran, but it is connected with too much resources due to the remoteness of the region.

“Also, according to some data, this war is very costly for the USA. Ahead of the pre-election campaign of the US President’s team, the course of such a war is very dangerous, because failures and miscalculations, spending millions of dollars only accumulate dissatisfaction within the country. But with all this, I don’t see a chance for Trump to back down, even though the statements sometimes give such an impression.

I am more inclined to think that he will try to use land opportunities to wage war against Iran, we are talking about the Kurds and the Azerbaijanis of Iran. However, here too, in my opinion, it will not succeed, because the Shia faith has a different system, in the current situation they mobilize differently, so hopes like the US will not be justified either. But it is certain that Iran’s opponents will try to involve as many countries as possible in all this, including Azerbaijan. We have already seen such an experience with the Nakhijevan incident. In other words, they will use all possible methods.

The fact that Israel is not inclined to negotiate with Iran and pushes the USA to the scenario of a long war, because it alone cannot face Iran for a long time, adds to all this tension,” he said.

The expert drew attention to the resignation and statements of the director of the US National Anti-Terrorism Center, Joseph Kent.

Nadein-Raevsky believes that many people in the United States understand that this is not the war of the United States and that only Israel needs this.

“Therefore, the USA seems to be in a trap, it is a rather complicated mosaic for the USA,” he said.

He expresses his surprise regarding the statements of US President Trump that the people of Iran should elect a leader who will have the approval of the US. “In the USA, they really think that Iran is Venezuela. In the US, they don’t know what Shia Islam is, what system the Islamic Republic of Iran lives in, and how leaders are elected, in this case, the supreme spiritual leader. Everything can be announced in this way, but they will never come true,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

Speaking about the South Caucasus, he said that the main danger in the South Caucasus is that the USA and Israel will try or are trying to use the neighborhood, particularly Azerbaijan, in the war against Iran.

According to him, if something like this happens, it will be a dramatic event for the region.

“Why dramatic, because Iran regularly warns Azerbaijan?” And since the beginning of this war, the attacks on the American bases in the Persian Gulf and not only on the bases are worrying not only for the region, but also for the whole world. Therefore, the involvement of the South Caucasus in any way will expand the geography of the war, because Iran is determined and is fighting this war as the last war. Armenia, for its part, tries to maintain great neutrality, although, I think, Iran expects support from partner countries, but taking into account the recent relations between Armenia and the USA, I think it is naive to expect something like this,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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While before the elections, the political authorities are busy brainwashing the citizens, trying to create moods by making announcements about the rapid developments and growth of the economy, processes are taking place in the economy that do not fit into the optimism of the authorities. Despite the growth of economic activity, including the growth of industry, exports from Armenia have decreased again. It decreased after last year’s decrease.

In January last year, a record drop in exports was recorded. was almost halved. On top of that, 13.5 percent less goods were exported from Armenia in January of this year.

Only 176 billion drams or about 464 million dollars were exported, including re-exports.

Re-exports, as in the previous few years, continue to make up quite a large weight in Armenia’s exports. Almost half of exports last year were re-exports. This year, re-exports are not small, but judging by the recorded declines, they continue to decrease.

In contrast to re-exports, it is worrying that ready-made food exports have decreased. This is the main export sector that is directly related to the economy of Armenia. There are mostly no or very few re-exports here. But here and there, a decline has been recorded here as well. The export of ready-made food was reduced by 16 percent at the beginning of this year.

The export of precious metals and stones has decreased sharply. Last year it was 176 million dollars, this year it was 96 million. It decreased by 80 million or more than 45 percent.

Decreased due to reduced known re-exports of gold.

Like gold, the re-export of a number of other products, particularly equipment and machinery, continues to play a crucial role in Armenia’s economy and export indicators. On indicators, but not on the economy.

The import has also decreased, and again, after last year’s decrease. Last year the decrease was almost 34 percent, this year it was more than 11 percent.

Domestic trade turnover has hardly increased. Instead, economic activity was primarily driven by construction, where almost 19 percent growth was recorded. Although the income tax refund program was withdrawn from Yerevan, construction continues to grow at a high rate. This is not because the construction is moving forward with inertia, but because the benefit of the return of income tax was only theoretically removed from Yerevan. There are many unfinished constructions that still retain that privilege. As a result of this, the growth of construction takes place. When the construction of the buildings built with previously issued permits in Yerevan will end, the “golden” era of construction will also end. It will be at the end of this year or at the beginning of next year.

For now, it is growing dynamically, although there is intrigue in this growth. In the construction industry, official statistics showed an increase of almost 19 percent at the beginning of the year, when in that same period, far fewer people were employed in construction. One can hardly think that this discrepancy was caused by the increase in productivity.

Something is wrong, has the shadow of the labor market grown, or have the official statistics tried too hard to present high growth?

After a fairly deep decline last year, the industry picked up early this year. At first glance, a tangible increase was registered: 10.6 percent. Although the decline of the previous year was almost the same, 10.4 percent. But let’s leave aside last year’s decline. The growth registered in the industry at the beginning of the year is mainly at the expense of mining and electricity production. More than 25 percent increase in production volume was recorded in the mining industry. And again, after last year’s decline.

Electricity production also increased by 17 percent. But as strange as it is, the growth of the manufacturing industry is very modest, barely 4.3 percent. That’s after the more than 16 percent decline of last year.

The year began with a decline in tobacco production, which had been growing at a fairly high rate in recent years. There is a slight increase in the production of beverages after a deep decline in the previous year.

At the beginning of the previous year, the production of beverages decreased by more than 25 percent. It has grown by 3.3 percent this year, but it still has a long way to go to recover.

The impact of the so-called Russian gold processing has not yet begun to manifest itself in the processing industry this year. There is a slight uptick in base metal production, but it is not the uptick we see in Russian gold movements. When Russian gold begins to circulate in the processing industry, we have significant increases in indicators, as we had at the end of last year. Imagine, in December of last year the production of basic metals, which included Russian gold, reached 173 billion drams, in January of this year it was only 26 billion drams. 6-7 times less when there is no Russian gold.

Apart from processing of Russian gold, there is also the production of jewelry in the processing industry, where a decline in production volume was recorded this year as well. Of course, it does not reach the decline of the previous year. Last year the decline was 37 percent, this year it was 1.4 percent.

There are no significant changes in both the industry as a whole and the processing industry. The effect of last year’s declines is particularly noticeable. After those declines, some increases are registered, the authorities seem to have developments.

The other sector, which has become the engine of economic activity in Armenia, is services, which is known, first of all, for the growth of the financial sector and entertainment services. Although there has been a significant slowdown in the growth rate in the services sector, compared to the previous year.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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