A week ago, the leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey held a summit in Tehran, where the Syrian issue was mainly discussed. The South Caucasus region was not left out of the discussion, which Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei touched upon during his meeting with President Erdoğan of Turkey, making it clear that the Armenian-Iranian border could not be changed.
According to Shahan Kandaharian, editor-in-chief of the Aztag newspaper in Lebanon, Turkey has failed to advance on these two issues (Syria and South Caucasus).
U.S., Russia and Iran oppose Turkey's moves
Kandaharian is convinced that the security zone in the territories bordering Turkey, especially in Syria, will not be formed as Ankara wishes despite certain border actions, which have been and are still being observed.
At the trilateral meeting, it became clear that neither Iran nor Russia had agreed to such plans from Turkey.
Çavuşoğlu responded by saying Ankara does not need anyone's permission to launch military operations. Tehran and Moscow's position is that they will not give the "green light" and will not tolerate military intervention. Moreover, Russia officially stated that the Syrian government forces must control the entire border of Syria and ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. These are all counter-responses to Turkey's outbursts.
"Many are fixated on the fact that for Turkey there is a U.S. restraining position on the issue of Syria, but the ban by Iran and Russia is also important. In fact, the positions of the U.S., Russia and Iran on this issue are convergent.
The issue of establishing communication between Nakhijevan and Azerbaijan through Syunik was of no small importance during the trilateral meeting in Tehran. Tehran also clearly stated that no changes in the Armenian-Iranian border are acceptable in this issue," Kandaharian told NEWS.am.
As previously reported, last week, as a result of the Turkish Armed Forces' shelling of a resort area in the north of Iraq, 9 civilians, including children, were killed and more than 20 people were wounded. Iraq then recalled its chargé d'affaires from Ankara, which instead of apologizing, disowned the actions.
Baghdad accused Turkey of expansionism and sent a complaint to the UN Security Council with more than 22,000 Turkish violations and the names of the victims of the attack. Yesterday, the media reported that a missile fell near a Turkish military base near Bashik in Iraq.
According to Kandaharian's assessment, there is still no possibility of a large-scale war in Syria or Iraq at the moment. But it does not rule out cross-border warfare, as exemplified by Turkey's attacks on the Kurds in Iraq. What Erdoğan failed to achieve in the matter of Syria, he decided to compensate by shelling Kurdish fighting positions in Iraq and to balance the Syrian failure. However, this will not cause any serious reshuffle and will not lead to a loss of control of these territories by the Kurds.
"It is possible that all these actions are aimed at Turkey's domestic audience, given that elections are just around the corner. Erdoğan's political, diplomatic and military moves may contain attempts to influence his potential electorate," the editor-in-chief of Azdag noted.
Pushing the West out of the South Caucasus
Kandaharian expressed the view that both Russia and Iran want to push the West out of the South Caucasus by involving Turkey in joint processes. This is also confirmed by Moscow's statements on the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which envisages the establishment of a new status quo in the South Caucasus with the consent of Turkey and Russia and puts an obstacle to the West's involvement in the region. The interest in the West's withdrawal from the region has created a precondition for launching negotiations in "3+3" format.
The issue of Georgia's inclusion in the format has so far caused difficulties. It turns out that the component of the second troika (South Caucasus countries) does not work fully, if we take into account that the conflicting Armenia and Azerbaijan are also included.
"Yerevan in the context of all this should conduct a balanced policy, despite increased dependence on Russia after the 44-day war. The West's activity in the region will continue, and the statements about the resumption of the OSCE Minsk Group activities speaks about the desire of the U.S. and France (as the EU representative) not to fall behind in the race for the role of mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani processes," he added.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken reminded Azerbaijani President Aliyev that, "The United States has been co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group since 1994 and is committed to bilateral cooperation and engagement with like-minded partners to help Armenia and Azerbaijan find lasting, comprehensive peace.
Kars 2
Turkey and Azerbaijan closely link the Karabakh issue to the negotiation process between Turkey and Armenia, as evidenced by Ankara's statements that it will coordinate every step with Azerbaijan.
"From the very beginning, our 'red line' has been Azerbaijan. We stated that we will open "our doors" after the resolution of the Azerbaijani issue. We are serious and determined in the process of normalizing relations with Armenia," Erdoğan said recently.
Kandaharian believes there has been a change in preconditions on Turkey's part, which linked talks with Armenia to the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, then they started talking about the "Zangezur corridor" together without end. We should not forget about Ankara's wish to delimit the Armenian-Turkish border which is equal to Kars-2 (Kars treaty). That is, the traditional preconditions have changed, but the targets Ankara and Baku are trying to hit have not.
Despite statements about the absence of the Karabakh problem, but in fact Baku and Ankara have only changed the wording to the process of delimitation and demarcation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
Armenia must not suffer from the Turan bridge
The ninth point of the statement of November 9, 2020, according to the journalist, is not only to establish a cease-fire, but to unblock communications throughout the region. Attention is constantly focused on the road from Nakhijevan to Azerbaijan via Syunik, although the issue should be considered more broadly, since Turkey gets the road to Azerbaijan, from there to Russia, and further to other Turkic-speaking countries (Central and Central Asia).
"This suggests that the trilateral statement of November 9 may create a Turanian bridge," Kandaharian explained.
As for the Armenian-Turkish border, it was closed by Turkey, but in case it is opened, Armenia should also have its say.
"Yerevan must carry out preparatory work, first of all, in the legislative sphere, creating favorable conditions for Armenian producers, introducing price control, developing and applying a new tax policy. All of this is needed so that Armenia's economy is not hit by Turkey in case the border is opened," he said.
Aram Danielyan