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Author: Yeghisabet Arthur

Armenia, Georgia will try to boost trade turnover to 1 billion USD – Intergovernmental Commission session takes place

Yeghisabet Arthur

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 19:22,

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 20, ARMENPRESS. Chaired by the Prime Ministers of Armenia and Georgia Nikol Pashinyan and Irakli Garibashvili, the 11th sitting of the Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation between the two countries took place in Tbilisi. The event was attended by the heads of the bodies regulating foreign policy, economy, defense and other spheres of the Governments of Armenia and Georgia, ARMENPRESS was informed from the Office of the Prime Minister.

At the beginning of the sitting, the head of the Georgian Government delivered welcoming remarks, followed by the Prime Minister of Armenia.

In his speech, Irakli Garibashvili, in particular, said,

“Mr. Prime Minister,

Dear members of the delegation,

Dear friends,

It is a great honor for me to host you in Georgia, I welcome my friend Prime Minister Pashinyan in Tbilisi. Mr. Prime Minister, this is your second visit to Georgia this year, and I would like to note with satisfaction that I have also been to Armenia twice. I am glad to note that we have relations based on close cooperation and friendship, and I thank you for that attitude.

I would also like to thank you for the fact that today the sitting of the Intergovernmental Economic Commission being held at our initiative and with our agreement, is taking place at the level of Prime Ministers. This commission resumed its activities on your personal initiative, no sessions had been held for years.

We are interested that our close and friendly relations could contribute to the implemntation of practical work, by developing trade and economic relations, talking about regional, infrastructural and other projects that will be in the interest for our countries.

I would like to note that the relations between our countries are at a high level, I am proud and satisfied to note that such relations have not existed between our countries. We have always had close, friendly relations, but our merit is that there are no misunderstood issues between our governments and countries, we have ideal relations.

I would like to note that we are interested in regional peace and stability. Georgia is always motivated to play a key role in this process, and for that goal I have announced about an initiative of peaceful neighborhood. Mr. Prime Minister, I affirm that we are always ready to contribute to the development of regional peace and stability.

Dear colleagues,

I once again welcome all of you in Tbilisi”.

In his turn, Prime Minister Pashinyan said,

“Dear Mr. Prime Minister, dear Irakli,

Distinguished participants of the session,

Ladies and gentlemen,

I cordially welcome the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili and all the participants of the 11th sitting of the Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation between the Republic of Armenia and Georgia.

First of all, I would like to thank our Georgian colleagues for the traditional warm welcome.

 

I must state with satisfaction that despite the difficulties, today the relations between our countries have entered a qualitatively new stage, registering successes in various spheres.

In 2019, we set an ambitious benchmark with Georgia, aiming to increase bilateral annual trade turnover to $ 1 billion in the medium term. The coronavirus slowed down this process, but now that we are learning to live in parallel with the coronavirus, I propose to reaffirm this intention. We have already discussed with Prime Minister Garibashvili and we will try to increase trade turnover between our countries to $ 1 billion by 2026.

This is an extremely important and ambitious task that requires dramatic efforts to be solved. That’s true, our trade turnover index for the first 10 months of this year has already exceeded the annual index of the previous three years, but we are still far from the 1 billion benchmark and we must work seriously in this direction.

We are deeply convinced that our economic cooperation has that potential, and our task is to contribute to its full revelation and implementation. The Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation is one of the best platforms for the implementation of the above-mentioned and the fact that the Commission is co-chaired by the leaders of the two countries, which is also unprecedented, is one of the key steps to achieve it. 

This session of the Intergovernmental Commission had been scheduled for last year, but did not take place due to the pandemic, however, bilateral contacts at both the highest and sectoral levels continued to move in the planned dynamics.

Today, our bilateral agenda covers many areas, while the friendly relations between the two countries contribute to maintaining security and stability in our region, the importance of which has already been mentioned by Prime Minister Garibashvili. As for trade and economic cooperation, clear areas have been developed, which include transport, energy, high technology, tourism, agriculture and other areas.

I would like to emphasize that one of the most important preconditions for the deepening of economic cooperation between Armenia and Georgia is mutual trust, which is anchored on the historical brotherhood of our peoples.

Slightly deviating from the official protocol, I must emphasize the human-emotional dimension of our relations. By the way, this refers not only to Prime Minister Garibashvili and my relations, but also to the relations of many members of our governments. The thesis just voiced that our peoples have brotherly ties coming from centuries ago is being reflected today not only at the official level, but also at the level of human relations between our governments.

There is a serious human, personal mutual trust and respect and we must value and strengthen that trust and respect.

The meetings of the leaders of the Republic of Armenia and Georgia are regular, we have the opportunity to refer to the entire agenda of bilateral relations. We have met with the Prime Minister of Georgia in a bilateral format already four times this year. Such dynamics have never existed in the relations between our countries before and our biggest task is to create a new level of economic cooperation as a result of all this. I also want to emphasize that we need to make the traditional high level of our political relations more institutional.

Dear attendees,

Concluding my speech, I would like to once again thank for organizing the reception of the Armenian delegation at a high level and wish success and fruitful work to all the participants of the sitting.

Thank you.”

A wide range of issues related to the development and expansion of cooperation between Armenia and Georgia in all spheres were discussed during the sitting, the forthcoming steps and programs of the sectoral departments of the two governments were outlined.

Based on the results of the sitting, the Prime Ministers of the two countries signed the protocol of the Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation between the Republic of Armenia and Georgia.

Eduard Babayan elected mayor of Abovyan

Yeghisabet Arthur

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 15:41, 17 December, 2021

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 17, ARMENPRESS. Prosperous Armenia party’s candidate Eduard Babayan has been elected as Mayor of Abovyan town of Kotayk province.

The local elections in Abovyan were held on December 5.

Prosperous Armenia party received 46,28% of the votes, Civil Contract party – 36,65%, Republic party – 11,93% and Armenian Revolutionary Federation – 5,12%.

Prosperous Armenia party will have 13 members of the Council, Civil Contract party – 10, Republic – 3, ARF – 1.

During the first session of the Council, 2 candidates were nominated for the Mayor – Eduard Babayan from the Prosperous Armenia party and Pavel Tsugunyan from the Civil Contract party.

14 members of the Council voted in favor of Babayan, 12 voted in favor of Tsugunyan.

Armenia plans to restore 45 km of railway section leading to Azerbaijan

Yeghisabet Arthur
News.am, Armenia
Dec 18 2021
15:47, 18.12.2021

The Armenian government plans to restore 45 km of the Yeraskh-Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz section of the railway, for which it will spend about $ 200 million, Deputy Prime Minister of the republic Mher Grigoryan told TASS on Saturday.

“According to preliminary estimates of experts, the indicative cost of restoring sections of railway tracks passing through the territory of Armenia will be about $ 200 million. The length of the section (across the territory of Armenia – approx. TASS) in aggregate will be about 45 km, and the total length of the track – about 340 km,” he noted.

Can Turkey’s outreach to Armenia save US-Turkish ties?

Yeghisabet Arthur
Dec 16 2021
Although Turkey-Armenia normalization is not guaranteed, mutual moves by Ankara and Yerevan are hopeful steps in the right direction.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu speaks during the 2022 budget negotiations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara on Dec. 13, 2021. – ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images
Cengiz Candar

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced in Turkish parliament at the beginning of the week that Turkey would normalize ties with Armenia and charter flights between Istanbul and Yerevan would resume. 

“We will mutually appoint envoys as part of normalization steps with Armenia,” Cavusoglu said, adding that Ankara would coordinate its steps with Azerbaijan.

Citing a senior Turkish official, Bloomberg reported that Turkey’s surprise overture is in line with President Joe Biden’s request, who allegedly urged Erdogan to open the country’s border with landlocked Armenia during the two leaders’ October meeting in Rome. 

According to the Bloomberg report, Turkey hopes that normalizing ties with Armenia will help Ankara to improve its strained relations with Washington over the former’s purchase of Russian air missile defense systems. The report has gone as far as to claim, “Erdogan could reap major benefits from any foreign policy move that helps to stabilize the economy as skyrocketing inflation threatens his popularity ahead of the 2023 vote.”

Turkey’s overture has nothing to do with the request of Biden, nor is it aiming to reap major benefits from the foreign policy move in a bid to stabilize its economy amid currency crisis as “skyrocketing inflation threatens” Erdogan’s popularity ahead of the scheduled 2023 elections.

In a bid to mend the strained relations with Washington, Turkey needs to withdraw from the S-400 deal it reached with Moscow. Ankara cannot alleviate Washington’s objections to Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400s by normalizing ties with Armenia. 

Moreover, Turkey’s economy is in such a deep crisis that this sort of foreign policy steps cannot prevent the looming train wreck, which in New York Times wording “has sped up with a ferocious intensity.”

The financial crisis and the Turkish currency’s unprecedented depreciation is Erdogan’s making. “And the foot that’s pushing hardest on the accelerator belongs to the country’s authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” because of his “insistence on lowering interest rates in the face of galloping inflation — precisely the opposite tactic of what economists almost universally prescribe,” The New York Times wrote.

Turkey is in such a desperate situation that new Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati, who was handpicked by Erdogan, reportedly called on the country’s businessmen to exchange $100 million converting to the Turkish lira.

While the devastatingly shaken country is on the verge of financial bankruptcy, normalization with Armenia would not yield any economic benefits for Erdogan to enhance his chances in the 2023 elections.

The text of a trilateral agreement signed between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan that ended the Nagorno-Karabakh clashes in November 2020 might provide clues for Turkey’s motivations on the latest move. The agreement, which Ankara also supported, was more than just a cease-fire deal — it was a document that aimed to shape the region’s future.

The last provision of the deal calls for a setup of a corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its autonomous exclave of Nakhichevan along the Turkish border.

Such a corridor would directly link Turkey to Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea’s western shore and from there to other Turkic states in Central Asia, in line with a decades-old joint Turkish and Azeri aspiration. 

Establishment of regional corridors and roads linking regional countries to each other also useful for China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

Commenting on the geopolitical importance of the trilateral agreement, The Economist said last year, “Though not mentioned in the trilateral agreement signed between the two belligerents and Russia, Turkey is a big beneficiary of it. It is to get access to a transport corridor through Armenian territory … linking Turkey to Central Asia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Russia will control the road itself, but Turkish and Chinese goods will travel along with it, and all parties stand to benefit economically.”

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev also hailed the multifaceted importance of the transit-corridor plan. He said that the corridor would “unite the Turkic world, as well as Russia with Armenia,” speaking in a Turkic Council summit held in Istanbul in November. 

Opening of transport links is also in line with Russia’s aim to increase its geopolitical influence in its former backyard, South Caucasus, as it would have access to Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan through railroads, bypassing Georgia.

The shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus has driven Turkey and Armenia to normalize their decisions. Armenia lost, and Azerbaijan regained all of the territories that had fallen under Armenian occupation in 1993. Turkey had closed off its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Baku.

As the new status quo has removed Turkey’s reason to keep the borders closed, Erdogan and other Turkish officials sent signals for normalization. During a visit to Baku in December 2020, Erdogan said “we will open our closed doors if positive steps are taken,” referring to Armenia. In response, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed his country’s readiness to strengthen ties with Turkey without preconditions. As a goodwill gesture, Armenia opened its airspace to Turkish Airlines flights to Baku.

Pashinyan, who emerged victorious from Armenia’s early elections in June 2021, acts in self-confidence when it comes to normalization with Turkey. In the September-October issue of bimonthly New Eastern Europe the following observation was made: “Pashinyan won early elections in June 2021 despite the fact he was leading the country when Armenia lost the six-week war with Azerbaijan last autumn. With his election victory, Pashinyan falsified the belief that losing Nagorno-Karabakh would mean losing the power. … Pashinyan’s real achievement was to make Armenians forget about the war.”

The turnout in the Armenian elections was the second lowest since the country gained independence in the 1990s. Nevertheless, his party won 53.9% of the votes. Pashinyan, with a strong mandate, was awaiting a move from Turkey and it came. He could also be encouraged by the endorsement of the United States and the European Union in this regard. 

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken tweeted that Washington “welcome and strongly support statements” by the Turkish Foreign Minister and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia on appointing special envoys to discuss the process of normalization.

A day later, Pashinyan tweeted from Brussels where he attended the European Eastern Partnership Summit on the sidelines of which he and President Aliyev met with French President Emmanuel Macron informally. From Brussels, Pashinyan wrote: “In a trilateral meeting with Charles Michel and Ilham Aliyev, we reaffirmed the agreement to relaunch the railway based on internationally accepted border and customs regulations on reciprocal principle under the sovereignty authority of countries that will receive railway access to Iran and Russia.” 

The missing word that he did not mention is Turkey. Yet it will be the natural outcome of the normalization process. First, the Armenian and Turkish special envoys will meet to discuss the opening of the land border. The process will probably be followed with the Turkish flag carrier’s landing on the tarmac of the international airport in the Armenian capital. The following step might be the reinstatement of ambassadors. If all of these are achieved, the railroad link between Armenia and Turkey, linking the latter with Azerbaijan, could be expected. 

Yet a smooth move toward the achievement is not guaranteed. The Turkey-Armenia normalization process can be derailed at any moment. The experience in this regard attests to that. Nonetheless, that is a hopeful step in the right direction.

While Turkey is financially collapsing because of Erdogan’s disastrous policies, a positive move on his part in foreign policy may sound paradoxical, but that is the case. A corridor linking Turkey with the Turkic world through Armenia is the new geopolitical reality of our time, and it certainly can outlive Erdogan and his successors.



Armenia Parliament Speaker to move to governmental mansion in Yerevan district soon

Yeghisabet Arthur
News.am, Armenia
Dec 8 2021
19:58, 08.12.2021

Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia Alen Simonyan will move to the governmental mansion in Kond district of Yerevan soon. Spokesperson of the Speaker of the National Assembly Tsovinar Khachatryan confirmed the news during a conversation with Armenian News-NEWS.am.

“Currently, the mansion is under renovation, and Alen Simonyan will move there after renovation,” Khachatryan said.

Azerbaijani press: President urges Armenia to give date for Zangazur corridor opening [UPDATE]

Yeghisabet Arthur
7 December 2021 10:00 (UTC+04:00)
800

By Ayya Lmahamad

President Ilham Aliyev has said that Armenia has to give a date when the Zangazur corridor will be opened, and then there will be no problem in this case.

He made the remarks at his meeting with residents of Guba region’s Gonagkand settlement on December 6.

Aliyev recalled his remarks made during last year’s 44-day war and stressed that he had “said that they should give us a timetable of when they would vacate our lands, and we were ready to stop the war”.

“I say the same thing today. I tell them to give us a date of when the Zangazur corridor will be opened, and there will be no problem in this case. Therefore, I think that both the Armenian leadership and the Armenian public must understand this. We have achieved what we wanted, and we will do that again,” he said.

He underlined that it would be better if the issue is resolved constructively through negotiations and mutual understanding.

Noting that the construction is underway in both Karabakh and Zangazur, the president emphasized that the recent work shows that if there are any revanchist tendencies, “this issue will be resolved immediately on the spot”.

“Because since the war ended, there have been several such attempts by Armenia, and they saw the bitter consequences of that. Therefore, it is not too late. I have repeatedly appealed to them, saying that they must accept our conditions and put an end to any insincere approach to roads and communications,” he said.

The head of state added that if this happens, then all the peoples of the South Caucasus will live in peace and tranquillity.

Speaking about the Karabakh war, Aliyev stressed that “it is a victory for all of us”.

“Every citizen of Azerbaijan brought that holy day closer with hard work. We kept Karabakh in our hearts during the entire period of occupation, and a generation of young people grew up who did not see Karabakh. They have liberated Karabakh at the cost of their lives. We have restored historical justice. We have restored the dignity of our people. A new era is beginning now,” he said.

Moreover, speaking about the visit to Gonagkand, he stated that this village has a great place in the history of Azerbaijan.

Stating that the main problem of the village was the problem of roads, he added that the construction of the Guba-Gonagkand highway can be considered a historic event.

“This is a beautiful tourist area. Since there was no road, tourists did not come here. I am sure that now beautiful recreation areas, hotels and public places will be created in these beautiful places. In other words, this part of Guba will revive, I have no doubts about that,” he said.

Turkish press: Why poke the bear if you are not a grizzly?

Yeghisabet Arthur
 NOV 29, 2021 – 12:05 AM GMT+3

Dr. Karen Donfried appears before a Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing for her nomination to be an Assistant Secretary of State, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 20, 2021. (Reuters Photo)

Writing for Sputnik International, British journalist Finian Cunningham portrays U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Karen Donfried’s actions as “poking the bear.” Recently rehabilitated George W. Bush-era neo-con Donfried said that “all options were on the table as far as Russia’s policy towards Ukraine.”

“As you can appreciate, all options are on the table, and there’s a toolkit that includes a whole range of options.”

The term “all options” is a not-so-diplomatic nomenclature for war. Donfried was recently in Turkey and, speaking on tensions between the two NATO allies Turkey and Greece, said she regretted that the U.S. presence in Greece caused uneasiness in Ankara. Like “all options,” the term “regret” in diplomatic parlance is a very subtle way to accuse the other party. You made me put all my options on the table. If you hadn’t threatened Ukraine, I wouldn’t be considering all these options … or – Why are you making so much fuss about our turning practically one third of the dry land in Greece into our military base? See what you did? Now we are so sad, so disappointed in you … Shame, shame…

Donfried has worked at several intelligence and strategy offices and agencies that are open to civilians in the U.S. government. She collected as many academic degrees and honors, awards and praises as possible. Her last stint was at the German Marshall Fund. She belongs to the cohort appointed by U.S. President Joe Biden to the White House and State Department that allegedly represents new American militarism (national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Wendy Sherman the former adviser to secretaries of state Madeleine Albright/Hillary Clinton, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, et. al.)

As all International Politics-101 students around the world know: (a) The U.S. cannot attack Russia as long as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is there as a military doctrine that warrants “a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender” and (b) Russia has nothing to win in occupying Ukraine. Yet Donfried uttered the “all options” idiom, which was not used by the chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, after talking to his Russian counterpart about Ukraine a few days earlier.

Milley, after discussing with Gen. Valery Gerasimov the increasing tensions over the Ukraine conflict and Black Sea region, went back to his business of defusing the tension by saying nothing. But, no! The White House and State Department faction was not satisfied, and Donfried had to bring every option to the table. This is only helping a Kyiv regime that has been amassing $3 billion worth of arms since 2014. They even bought Turkish aerial attack drones and tested them in a provocative assault against Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, causing a Kremlin spokesperson to warn Turkey about its arms sales to Ukraine.

Turkey’s only motive in those sales was hot cash; yet its NATO membership was immediately misused by Russian (as well as the U.S.) media as if Turkey was taking part in this new scheme of American militarism, which, unlike Turkey’s policies, has many motives unrelated to foreign trade. They want to poke the Russian bear, as Cunningham points out, by interpreting “the menacing formula of words” that Washington deploys to mean a military attack on targeted nations like Iran, North Korea and Venezuela.

American movie maker Bill Standish used to warn that one should not poke the bear unless one is a grizzly oneself! The U.S. is not a bear, let alone a grizzly, yet. Former U.S. President Donald Trump played along with Bush and Barack Obama’s leftovers for a while, but he never invested billions of dollars in the Pentagon as his predecessors did. Biden himself has been complaining about the overspending in those endless wars that have actually deprived the U.S. of its vital striking power. Biden’s $2 trillion spending bill will eventually restore that power as well as the infrastructure, but the U.S. is not there yet. Besides, the 1998 evaluation of the “flexible response” defense strategy, authored by John F. Kennedy in 1961, showed that the U.S. can hardly fight multiple wars simultaneously. Now, on the one hand, conscripting India and Australia against China, and on the other, agitating poor Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a Ukrainian comedian-turned-politician who is still wondering how he became the president against the Russian bear, would be too much for Biden.

It is plausible for the people at the White House and the State Department to ignite the fuse before Vice President Kamala Harris and like-minded progressives take over in case Mr. Biden retires unexpectedly. We know how easily a brushfire on the shores of the Black Sea could easily engulf the entire democratic establishment, liberal and socialist alike; Kamala, the “squad,” even Bernie Sanders and others will be on the war wagon eventually.

But there are grown-ups in the U.S. Senate, the Pentagon and other places who aren’t aware that Ms. Donfried’s reckless rhetoric towards Russia needs to be stopped before it leads to war hysteria. One only hopes that if Biden really has a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin that this provocation will come to an end.

Armenpress: Azerbaijan’s attacks on the population of Artsakh are becoming systemic – MFA Armenia

Yeghisabet Arthur

Azerbaijan’s attacks on the population of Artsakh are becoming systemic – MFA Armenia

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 21:13, 3 December, 2021

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 3, ARMENPRESS. The Foreign Ministry of Armenia issued a statement today, referring to the killing of a civilian of Artsakh by Azerbaijani armed forces on December 3. As ARMENPRESS was informed from the press service of the MFA, the press secretary of the Foreign Ministry of Armenia Vahan Hunanyan said in the statement,

“While carrying out agricultural work near the Chartar community of the Martuni region of Artsakh, Seyran Sargsyan, a resident of Chartar, was captured and deliberately killed by Azerbaijani units on December 3.

We strongly condemn and consider the killing of a civilian by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in gross violation of international humanitarian law inadmissible.

It is noteworthy that the attacks and acts of terrorism against the Armenian civilian population of Artsakh become systemic, which is the result of justifying previous similar crimes committed by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces with baseless motives by Baku, which leads to a recurrence of such behavior.

The recent atrocities committed by the Azerbaijani armed forces against the civilian population of Artsakh are a continuation of the Azerbaijani authorities’ policy of anti-Armenianism, eviction and ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, which once again proves that guaranteeing the physical security and right to life of Artsakh Armenians is impossible under Azerbaijani jurisdiction.

Properly investigating this and previous attacks on civilians and bringing the perpetrators to justice can create the preconditions for preventing similar crimes in the future”.

Azeri military breaches Artsakh ceasefire, again

Yeghisabet Arthur

Azeri military beaches Artsakh ceasefire, again

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 15:15, 2 December, 2021

STEPANAKERT, DECEMBER 2, ARMENPRESS. The Azerbaijani military opened gunfire from positions deployed in the direction of Karmir Shuka in Artsakh’s Martuni region on December 2, at around 10:30.

The shooting lasted 10-15 minutes. The Azeri troops mostly used firearms in the shooting, the Human Rights Defender of Artsakh Gegham Stepanyan said.

Stepanyan said that according to clarifications the shooting was heard in the community’s residential section, and the bullets passed through the gardens of the residents.

No victims or material losses were recorded in the shooting.

“Violating the ceasefire regime under the trilateral statement and the high-level agreements, Azerbaijan continues criminal actions against the rights of the people of Artsakh, encroaching first of all against the peaceful population’s right to life and psychological and physical inviolability. Since the establishment of the ceasefire we’ve numerously said that with such criminal actions the Azerbaijani side seeks to terrorize the people living in Artsakh and achieve exodus of Armenians from Artsakh through developing an atmosphere of fear and despair,” Stepanyan said.

The ombudsman added that the immediate withdrawal of Azeri troops from the vicinity of peaceful settlements and the introduction of mechanisms for impartial investigations of ceasefire breaches is highly necessary to suppress and rule out the repetition of the Azeri crimes and protect the safety and rights of the Artsakh population.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

The Border Escalation Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Is Part of a Dangerous Pattern [Azeri Opinion]

Yeghisabet Arthur
The National Interest
Dec 3 2021

What exactly triggered the most dramatic military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the end of the Second Karabakh War?

by Murad Muradov Simona Scotti

On November 16, intense fighting broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia in what is considered to be the most severe escalation since the end of the Second Karabakh War. This time, however, the situation spiraled out of control not in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan but along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

The border clashes involving the use of artillery, armored vehicles, and firearms of various calibers unfortunately produced fatalities. There are reports of about six deaths on the Armenian side, the capture of thirteen Armenian soldiers, and the loss of contact with another twenty-four. Conversely, Azerbaijan confirmed seven casualties and ten wounded during the conflict. On the same day, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a ceasefire mediated by Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu.

Both sides accuse the other of initiating the conflict. Azerbaijan’s defense ministry blames Armenia for “large-scale provocations against Azerbaijan in the Kalbajar and Lachin regions of the state border,” stating that Armenia unsuccessfully “launched a sudden military operation” to “take more advantageous positions.” Armenia, on the other hand, stated that the Azerbaijani forces attacked its eastern border along the provinces of Zangezur (Syunik) and Basarkechar (Gegharkunik).

Whatever the case, Armenia lost two military positions to the Azerbaijani army. Armenia called for Russian intervention under the terms of their 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan also said that Yerevan will turn to other international partners if the crisis cannot be overcome with the help of Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The November 16 conflict occurred after a few weeks of provocations that did not escalate to violence. However, these provocations increased tensions in Karabakh and neighboring border districts.

Then, in the early morning of November 13, Norayr Mirzoyan, an Armenian resident of Karabakh, threw a grenade at an Azerbaijani checkpoint near the city of Shusha located on the Lachin corridor that connects Karabakh to Armenia. Azerbaijani authorities issued a statement saying that an officer and two soldiers of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were wounded in the attack. Russian peacekeepers detained Mirzoyan, but they soon released him. While the Azerbaijani side declared Mirzoyan a terrorist and was frustrated by his release, many in Armenia hailed him as a “hero of revenge.” Tensions continued to increase on the following day with numerous shooting incidents reported on both sides of the borderline in the Kalbajar district. Partisans in Armenia were likely inspired by Mirzoyan’s terrorist act and called for compatriots to resume the battle against Azerbaijan.

But what exactly triggered the most dramatic military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the end of the Second Karabakh War? Recent months have seen diminishing tensions after the skirmishes around Garagol, a lake along the border, this past May. Public pronouncements on the prospect of peace, or at least, a readiness to fulfill border delimitation, have also been more pronounced in the official statements and public rhetoric on both sides. A trilateral meeting between Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Russian president Vladimir Putin was widely expected. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov commented that such a meeting was indeed in the works. Consequently, the November violence was rather unexpected.

From Azerbaijan’s point of view, delivering a hard response to November 16 was logical. The “grenade incident” highlighted a number of unpleasant truths not only about the persistent threat of Armenian revanchism but also about the Russian peacekeepers’ lack of control over people and goods entering Karabakh via the Lachin corridor. Baku has expressed discontent with the continuation of unrestrained trips by Armenian officials to Karabakh and the presence of remaining “Artsakh Army” units within the former autonomous region. According to the November 2020 deal, the “army” should have long been disbanded. Within this context, it is logical that Baku was willing to demonstrate that it can protect its armed forces and reconstruction projects in the liberated areas. But what pushed the Armenian side to provoke the battle-hardened and well-entrenched Azerbaijani forces into retaliating?

Most Armenian political and military experts now admit that Yerevan simply does not possess the resources necessary for waging a serious conflict with Azerbaijan. Armenia’s “achievements” from this latest round of fighting support this admission. Armenia’s said “achievements” are deplorable: lost positions and fortifications; the installation of Azerbaijani checkpoints on the Gorus-Kafan road, which previously provided unrestricted access to Armenians, cut off six Armenian villages from the rest of the country; a weakened negotiating position; and another humiliation.

Thus, there can only be two possible explanations for Armenian actions. The first is that the attack was meant to draw international attention to the South Caucasus and act as a jumping-off point to call for an international presence in the conflict zone. The second is that the flareup grew out of the domestic power struggle between Pashinyan’s circle, which is determined to complete the peace process, and military elite close to former president Robert Kocharyan, who hopes to discredit Pashinyan’s government through humiliation.

Both explanations require generous assumptions. The former presumes that the Armenian elite, despite all that has happened since 2020, still believes that Western nations may deploy forces to the region, while the latter presumes the existence of multiple power centers within Armenia and limited government control over the armed forces. However, some indicators hint that the second explanation may contain a grain of truth. These include anti-Pashinyan rallies in Yerevan; the firing of Defence Minister Arshak Karapetyan and his replacement with Pashinyan-loyalist Suren Papikyan; and the prime minister’s unexpected offer to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan without delay just as fighting receded.

Additionally, whenever the Armenian government has recently expressed its intention to carry out a rapprochement with Azerbaijan, similar situations occur at the border. This may further suggest that the Armenian government does not have total control of its military apparatus.

The November 16 escalation has also exposed three important realities about relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. First, Yerevan is stuck at an impasse with incongruent and mutually-exclusive positions: Armenia has lamented Azerbaijan’s “violation of Armenian borders and invasion of the Armenian sovereign territory,” but has, at the same time, de facto denied the existence of an uncontestable border by refusing delimitation and appealing to vague historic and ethnic arguments that undermine its own security.

The second reality is that Azerbaijan is determined not to go with the flow, reacting to the ceasefire violations and negotiation disruptions in a hard way to demonstrate its strategic and political preponderance. As President Aliyev has reiterated on different occasions, Azerbaijan is ready to engage with Armenia in diplomatic initiatives to secure peace and stability in the region. But any challenges emanating from Armenia will be dealt with in a harsh way, and no outside power can prevent Azerbaijan from doing so.

The third reality regards Russia’s ongoing unwillingness to assist its formal ally Armenia—the recent show about Yerevan’s “failure to give a written notice to the CSTO” is a good example. For Moscow, it seems that Karabakh and Armenia are now two different matters. While Moscow refuses to satisfy some of Azerbaijan’s legitimate demands regarding Karabakh to retain a pressure tool and gain concessions from Baku, it does not want to help Yerevan vis-à-vis Baku either. The Kremlin considers the resumption of full-fledged conflict to be an outcome as negative as its full resolution, which would question the need for Russia’s military presence in the region.

Finally, it should be noted that the absence of proper communication channels between Baku and Yerevan slows down the peace process, creates unnecessary difficulties, and claims soldiers’ lives. The recent decision to restore the direct contact line between defense ministers is as timely as ever and should be applauded.

Murad Muradov is the co-founder and deputy director at Topchubashov Center, a Baku-based think tank. His areas of expertise cover European politics, politics of identity and nationality, and international political economy. You can follow him on Twitter: @MMuradov3.

Simona Scotti is a research fellow at Topchubashov Center, a Baku-based think tank. Her main areas of expertise include post-Soviet states, Western Balkans, and Latin America, and her main interests are related to international law, peacebuilding, and ethnic conflicts. You can follow her on Twitter: @simona__scotti.