Author: Lilit Nahapetian

ILHAM ALIYEV AND VLADIMIR PUTIN DISCUSSED MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION
MOSCOW, FEBRUARY 17. ARMINFO-TURAN. Working visit of Azeri President
Ilham Aliyev to Russia has concluded. It was devoted to opening of
the Year of Azerbaijan in Russia. Aliyev has held talks with Russian
President Vladimir Putin to discuss development of trade-economic
cooperation, measures to prevent international terrorism, perspectives
of the Karabakh conflict settlement and expanding of humanitarian
and cultural ties.
Russian president press office reports that “presidents have discussed
possibilities of military-technical cooperation between Russia and
Azerbaijan.”
The agreement on military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan
and Russia was signed in Baku in February 2003 during an official
visit of Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov to Azerbaijan.
During his official visit to Russia Ilham Aliyev has held an unplanned
meeting with Defence Minister to discuss military-technical issues.
Unofficial sources report that the Russian side is going to sell its
weapons to Azerbaijan.
The Karabakh conflict was another subject of negotiations. Russia, as
another OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen, offers parties to the conflict
to find agreement themselves and mediators could act as guarantors
of the agreement. At the ceremony of opening of Year of Azerbaijan
Putin said “Russia is going to assist to find a worthy settlement of
the Karabakh conflict and safeguard security in this region.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Radio Free Europe, Czech Rep.
Feb 6 2005
ARMENIAN OPPOSITION VOWS TO CONTINUE PARLIAMENT BOYCOTT
BODY:
Viktor Dallakian, secretary of the opposition Artaruriun parliament
faction, told journalists on 3 February that the parliamentary
opposition will continue the boycott it began one year ago but will
suspend that boycott to participate in debates on issues of crucial
importance, including compensating the population for the loss of
deposits in Soviet-era savings accounts, Noyan Tapan reported.
Dallakian further described as “a polite rejection” the response by
the ruling three-party coalition government to the opposition’s
proposals for compromise over the package of constitutional
amendments drafted by President Robert Kocharian. Earlier on 3
February, the three parties issued a statement welcoming the
opposition’s proposals. At the same time, the statement said the
opposition should not make its participation in discussions on
constitutional reform contingent on acceptance of its proposals,
RFE/RL’s Armenian Service reported.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARKA News Agency
Jan 31 2005
2366 emergency cases registered in Armenia in 2004
US Ambassador to Armenia to make a report `Armenia in 2005′ in
California University
Arman Melikyan: NKR authorities are ready to cooperate with the
mission of OSCE
*********************************************************************
2366 EMERGENCY CASES REGISTERED IN ARMENIA IN 2004
YEREVAN, January 31. /ARKA/. 2366 emergency cases registered in
Armenia in 2004, 749 people suffered in result of them, RA National
Statistics told ARKA. Of them 179 had died, 530 wounded and 40
evacuated.. 25.9% of the cases are disasters, in result of which 43
people had suffered, three people died, 32 – wounded and 8 –
temporarily evacuated. Namely in report period Armenia registered 13
disaster cases related to strong winds, 2 lightning strikes, 42 cases
of hail, 24 cases of showers, 9 snowfalls, 16 forest fires, 17
floods. Besides Emergency Department of Armenia registered 7
earthquakes. Damage from disasters in the republic made 271603
thousand AMD ($1 – 478.48 AMD). L.D. -0 –
*********************************************************************
US AMBASSADOR TO ARMENIA TO MAKE A REPORT `ARMENIA IN 2005′ IN
CALIFORNIA UNIVERSITY
YEREVAN, January 31. /ARKA/. US Ambassador to Armenia John Evans will
make a report `Armenia in 2005′ in California University. UCLA told
ARKA that the visit is organized by UCLA Professor Richard
Hovannisian together with Association of Armenian Students. Evans
will be accompanied by the Head of USAID representation to Armenia
Robin Phillips. L.D. -0 –
*********************************************************************
ARMAN MELIKYAN: NKR AUTHORITIES ARE READY TO COOPERATE WITH THE
MISSION OF OSCE
STEPANAKERT, January 31. /ARKA/. NKR Minister of Foreign Affairs
Arman Melikyan received the delegation of OSCE. According to NKR
MFA’s Press Service Department, the delegation consists of the
co-Chairmen of OSCE Minsk Group on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Yuri
Merzlyakov (Russia), Steven Mann (the USA) and Bernar Facie (France),
as well as the members of the mission for ascertainment of the facts
headed by Emily Haber (Germany). Greeting the members of the
delegation Arman Melikyan noted the interest of the NKR authorities
in the visit of the mission. Introducing the position of the
authorities of the republic regarding the territories under control
of NKR, the Minister emphasized that studying the real situation in
the security zone of NKR will enable the international community to
have an objective idea about the state of the refugees and
individuals moved out by force.
Melikyan noted that the authorities of NKR are ready to cooperate
with the mission of OSCE and create the necessary facilities for its
work and make it possible for the monitoring group to visit any
region it wishes.
The members of the mission for ascertainment of the facts touched
upon a wide range of issues connected with the official policy of the
authorities of NKR in respect of the territories under control of
NKR. Issues connected with the activity program of the monitoring
group during its stay in NKR were made agree.
The members of the delegation expressed their gratitude to the
Minister for a detailed conversation and readiness to support the
work of the mission. A.H. -0–
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

The Jamestown Foundation
Friday, November 12 — Volume 1, Issue 126
EURASIA DAILY MONITOR
IN THIS ISSUE:
*Russia-EU summit rescheduled for late November
*Putin’s economic aide says call the dogs off Yukos
*Gazprom turns up the heat on Tbilisi
*Cold War rhetoric infects Yanukovych statements
Friday, November 12, 2004 — Volume 1, Issue 126
GAZPROM OR SHAH-DENIZ ? GEORGIA’S CHOICE OF STRATEGIC PARTNERS
by Vladimir Socor
Russia’s Gazprom is counting on three factors to rush Georgia, despite U.S.
advice, into a political decision to sell the country’s gas transportation
system to the Russian monopoly. Those factors are: the specter of winter,
the urgent need for capital injections into that system, and fortuitously
convergent support for such a sale by interested lobbyists and disinterested
exponents of economic ultra-liberalism in Tbilisi.
Gazprom’s takeover of internal distribution pipelines could lock Georgia
permanently into dependence on Russian gas by blocking the access of
Azerbaijani gas from Shah-Deniz to the Georgian market. The
Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey gas transit pipeline would not necessarily be
affected; but Georgia would no longer be able to benefit from this safeguard
against the high political risks of dependence on Russian supplies.
At present, Georgia is almost totally dependent on Russian gas, consuming
approximately 1 billion cubic meters annually. Gazprom’s export arm,
Gazeksport, currently sells it for $60 per 1,000 cubic meters; but it has
just decided to increase the price charged to South Caucasus countries to
$78 per 1,000 cubic meters, with partial pre-payment, effective from January
1, 2005. The price hike and its timing are adding to the pressure on Georgia
to turn its insolvent gas transport system over to Gazprom.
The state-owned Georgian Gas International Corporation (GGIC) operates
Georgia’s trunk pipelines. Distribution systems are owned by as many as 40
local companies, among whom the municipally owned Tbilisi Gas (Tbilgazi) is
by far the largest, politically most sensitive, and most likely target for a
Gazprom takeover attempt.
Gazprom is also targeting the transit pipeline that runs via Georgia to
Armenia for possible takeover. Under existing arrangements, Russia pays the
transit fees in the form of gas. In 2003, Georgia transited 1.2 billion
cubic meters of Russian gas to Armenia and received 120 million cubic meters
in compensation.
The Russian company and some Georgian officials are considering several
possible modalities of a Gazprom takeover. The options include: equity
transfers, straight buyout, or a Gazprom-GGIC joint venture, for all or
major parts of Georgia’s gas transportation system. Regarding the link to
Armenia via Georgia, Gazprom is considering the possibility of expanding its
capacity or rebuilding it entirely and using it in reverse as an outlet for
Iranian gas exports.
Former president Eduard Shevardnadze accepted a deal along those lines
during the twilight months of his rule. An agreement of intent envisaged
turning Georgia’s gas transportation network over to Gazprom. Shevardnadze
ignored Washington’s strong objections to that agreement in the final months
of 2003. The U.S. State Department’s special envoy for Caspian energy
affairs, Steven Mann, made the case against that intention one year ago, and
is making the case again now to prevent an expediency-based deal with
Gazprom against Georgia’s long-term national interests.
Gazprom holds out the incentive of stable gas supplies to Georgia and
overhauling the country’s gas transportation and distribution systems. Some
Georgian officials feel that the proposed deal would tide Georgia over the
next two winters, until Azerbaijani gas starts flowing. However, Georgia
would probably lose the opportunity to use Shah-Deniz gas, if Gazprom
acquires Georgia’s trunk pipelines. In that case, Gazprom could exercise
discretionary control over the access of Shah-Deniz gas to the Georgian
market. It would almost certainly block or manipulate that access and ensure
that Gazprom retains overwhelming market share in Georgia, not only for
commercial reasons (Georgia is a small market for Gazprom), but mainly for
political and strategic reasons.
The BP-led consortium, developing the Shah-Deniz gas project, will also own
and operate that gas transit pipeline, including the section in Georgia.
Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2006 under a 20-year sale and purchase
agreement. Georgia is slated to receive guaranteed volumes starting at 200
million cubic meters in the first year, rising gradually to 500 million
cubic meters by the sixth year, and continuing for another 14 years. Georgia
will pay a preferential price, starting at $55 in the first year and rising
at a rate of 1.5% annually.
In addition, Georgia will receive transit fees either in cash (at $2.50 per
1,000 cubic meters transiting Georgia, and rising at a rate of 2% annually)
or in the form of gas amounting to 5% of the volume transiting Georgia (that
volume will rise to 6.6 billion cubic meters, heading for Turkey, in the
sixth year and thereafter). Depending on the form of transit fees, the gas
from Shah-Deniz will cover between 50% and 83% of Georgia’s demand. On top
of that, Georgia will have an option to purchase Azerbaijani gas at market
prices.
This arrangement gives Georgia a unique set of advantages: first, the chance
to escape from dependence on Russian gas; second, lower prices (both
short-term and long-term); and, third, guaranteed deliveries from a
politically friendly, Western-managed supply source.
In Tbilisi, lobbying in favor of the sale to Gazprom is a non-transparent
process. Local observers trace it to a Shevardnadze-era gas trader who
became wealthy in the Russian gas import trade, and who aspires to regain
that niche for himself in the new conditions, trying to use a new contact
near the top, as he had in the old system. Entirely unrelated to that
effort, though coincident in the timing, Economics Minister Kakha Bendukidze
advocates the earliest possible state divestment of the gas transportation
system (and other state properties) by selling to whatever buyer, including
Gazprom — currently the only buyer in sight — if the price is right and
investment is forthcoming. Bendukidze, himself a businessman of unquestioned
integrity, is known to bring a fundamentalist liberal approach to the issue
of privatizing strategic state assets, with little regard for national
security implications.
Georgia’s gas transport system is in urgent need of a costly overhaul.
Turning the system over to Gazprom is not the only financing option,
however. With a rapidly growing state budget, incipient economic recovery,
high level of foreign aid, and renewed access to international credit,
Georgia can devise a financing package for that system’s rehabilitation
while retaining national control, so as to break out of the dangerous
dependence on Gazprom when Shah-Deniz gas comes on stream.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

GRYZLOV MADE WRONG STATEMENT, OSKANIAN CONSIDERS
PanArmenian News
Dec 22 2004
22.12.2004 18:02
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Touching upon the words of Russian Duma Speaker
Boris Gryzlov Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian stated that
“the word he used presents the Armenian-Russian relationships a
wrong way”. Boris Gryzlov “just used a wrong wording”, V. Oskanian,
who visited the National Press Club today, considers. He said “to
date negotiations can be more efficient than in 1997. Moreover,
with the proposals available today we can “fix” Karabakh’s right for
self-determination”. Vardan Oskanian also noted that at present the
leadership has to decide on Karabakh’s participation in the talks –
either to insist on involving Karabakh and break out the negotiations
unless the demand is satisfied or to continue the process. Nowadays
the authorities prefer the second variant.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Aliyev Comments on Georgia
Civil Georgia, Georgia
Dec 17 2004
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on December 17 that the
problems of blocked freight movement on the Georgian border will be
settled only after the Azerbaijani side is convinced that these goods
are not designated for Armenia.
“Azerbaijan will never permit the import of freight to Armenia via
its own territory,” RIA Novosti quotes the Azerbaijani President as
saying on December 17.
“The stoppage of train vans causes damage to both Georgia and
Azerbaijan. But we have no other way,” Aliyev added.
While commenting on the problems of ethnic Azeris living in Georgia,
Aliyev said that the Azerbaijani authorities always focus on this
issue, adding that “the Azerbaijanis in Georgia are citizens of
Georgia and they should respect the laws of their country.”
“There are particular forces which are trying to cause damage to the
relationship between Georgia and Azerbaijan. We know these forces;
unfortunately, they act inside our country as well. But basically
these forces operate outside Azerbaijan,” Aliyev said.
“We will never permit that the strategic relations between Georgia
and Azerbaijan to be endangered,” the Azerbaijani President added.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
November 22, 2004, Monday
21ST CENTURY PROBLEMS
SOURCE: Novoe Vremya, No. 47, November 21, 2004, p. 10
by Nikolai Popov
In evaluating the most pressing problems facing Russia and the world
as a whole, our people come up with various priority rankings for
ourselves and the rest of the world. The majority, however, viewed
one particular problem as the top priority: poverty. Forty-seven
percent of respondents name poverty as Russia’s major problem; 49%
say it is the major problem for the world as a whole. Subsequent
priorities differ. According to 45% of respondents, Russia’s second
most important problem is rising prices, or inflation. For the world
as whole, respondents put environmental protection in second place –
named as the biggest problem by 13%. Finally, Russian respondents
name “conquering AIDS, malaria, and other major diseases” as the
third most important problem for the world as a whole; for Russia,
third place goes to unemployment, named by 37% of respondents.
Further down the ranking of global problems, Russian respondents
named the following: reducing child mortality (7%), creating an
organization for helping poor countries (4%), better healthcare for
mothers (3%), eliminating illiteracy (3%), and gender equality (1%).
The selection of problems to be ranked was compiled by the United
Nations, which has set the goal of resolving them by 2015.
After the top three, respondents named the following problems as the
most important for Russia: drug abuse (33%), rising crime rates
(29%), weakness of state authority (20%), greed and bribe-taking
among the bureaucracy and state officials (15%), housing and
utilities problems like heating, water, and electricity supplies
(12%), delays in payment of wages or pensions (7%), international
problems (3%), and interethnic problems within Russia (3%). The total
adds up to over 100% because respondents were allowed to pick two or
three choices from the list of domestic problems.
As a recent international Gallup poll indicated, most of the world’s
population views eliminating poverty and hunger as the top priority:
44% of respondents named this as the main problem. The highest
percentage of respondents named this as the top priority in the
Middle East (62%); the lowest percentage (29%) in North America,
where people are evidently poorly-informed about poverty and hunger
in other parts of the world. The global poll’s second priority was
creating an organization for helping poor countries (12%), followed
by 10% each for environmental protection, fighting disease, and
ensuring universal basic education. These average figures conceal
some strong disparities between responses from various parts of the
world. For example, environmental protection was named as the top
priority by 21% of respondents in the Asia-Pacific, but only 1% in
Africa, where fighting disease scored 22%.
Actually, whether any particular problem is given priority in any
particular country depends on various considerations, frequently
contradictory. In East-Central Europe, where economies still lag
behind those of the developed world, only 5% of respondents consider
it very important to create an organization for helping poor
countries. The people of East-Central Europe aren’t counting on
getting any such aid themselves, but they are not yet prepared to
participate as donors. In these countries, fighting epidemic diseases
is viewed as more important than the global average response: 14% of
respondents in East-Central Europe name this problem as the most
important. And this problem is viewed as very serious in some
countries: 26% of respondents in Ukraine named it as the world’s top
priority, 21% of respondents in Estonia, and 20% in Lithuania.
In general, respondents in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union
are similar in their evaluation of their own problems, although there
are some substantial differences. In all these countries, the top
three problems named as the most serious are the following: poverty,
inflation, and unemployment. In some countries, respondents give
unemployment second or even first priority among their concerns:
Armenia – 82%, top priority; Kyrgyzstan – 69%, second place;
Lithuania – 62%, top priority; Bulgaria – 63%, second place. Drug
abuse is gradually pulling ahead of corruption as the most serious
problem: 35% of respondents in Kazakhstan name it as their top
concern, 33% in Russia, and 23% in Ukraine. At the same time, only
11% of respondents in Moldova and 5% in Armenia name drug abuse as
the top priority.
Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

IAGS Energy Security
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Nov 16 2004
A strategic approach to pipeline security
The most important infrastructure project in the Caucasus,
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, is about to be completed.
Next year, the 1,000 mile long $3 billion pipeline, passing through
the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, will be able to
export up to 1 million barrels a day of crude oil from the
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli offshore oil fields in the Caspian Sea
(reserves of 4.3 billion barrels) to the Western markets. Along with
the currently existing Baku-Supsa (Georgian port on the Black sea)
oil pipeline, BTC will be a valuable tool for reducing Western
dependence on Middle Eastern energy and will serve as a geopolitical
binder of the Caucasus to the Europe.
Aside from BTC, a consortium of Western energy companies has already
started the construction of the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, which
will enable the export of natural gas from the large gas field of
`Shah Deniz’ in the Caspian sea through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the
Turkish city of Erzurum. It will be $1 billion worth, 425 mile long
pipeline and will have the capacity to export up to 7 billion cubic
meters of gas (if upgraded even double that volume).
Given the unstable nature of the Caucasus, much has been said about
the threats to these pipelines. Indeed, most of the statements have
been valid. Located in a troublesome part of the world, Azerbaijan
and Georgia face major threats of terror on a daily basis. Some of
these threats are related to international terrorism (both Azerbaijan
and Georgia are members of the US-led war on terror). International
terror groups such as PKK and Al-Qaida have threatened to destroy oil
pipelines, should their political demands not be met. Additionally,
the unresolved conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya, South Osetia
and Abkhazia as well as the presence of criminal gangs in the
Northern Caucasus increase the risk of attacks on the pipelines.
Although both pipelines will be buried underground, recent history
shows that this does not secure pipelines from petty thieves and
minor explosions.
Thus far the host countries of the pipelines along with the Western
energy companies have taken responsibility for the protection of the
critical energy infrastructure. Yet, it is clear that by sole
attention to the military aspects of the pipeline protection it will
be impossible to guarantee their full protection. The host countries
can upgrade their pipeline protection units and patrol teams and
purchase the most advanced technology in the world, yet experts argue
that it is also vital that the communities along which the pipelines
will pass be involved in the protection process.
BTC and South Caucasus Gas Pipeline pass through rural communities
where thousands of people have been living for centuries. Shepherds
move their herds and children pass the pipeline on the way to their
schools. Farmers irrigate the land and villagers hurry to their
relatives across the village. And all of these happen on a daily
basis. The majority of residents of the communities along the
pipelines are excited about the projects. Some of them have been
employed directly or indirectly in the construction process. Others
have big hopes and expectations that the pipelines will bring much
desired social and economic improvements to their empowered areas. In
some villages, the construction of the pipelines has already brought
in some social investment as well, such as the repair of the local
schools and hospitals, installation of the water and sewerage lines
as well as mobilization and creation of community groups and
associations. It is imperative that the communities see the economic
and social benefit of the pipelines and that these benefits trickle
down to ordinary households. This would significantly reduce the risk
of social unrest, a major threat to the pipelines.
More than 70 years of Soviet rule and centralized economy have
created a mentality in which ordinary people do not feel
responsibility for public property. Absence of initiative and
mobilization skills at the grassroots level discourages people from
joining their resources to help protect the pipeline. This, in turn,
creates perhaps the most dangerous threat to the pipelines- lack of a
feeling of ownership among the people.
In many ways, BTC and South Caucasus Gas Pipeline will become a test
for a new method of protection of critical energy infrastructure.
Traditional methods of utilizing high-tech hardware and military
units to safeguard the pipelines often do not yield desired results.
It is the involvement of the communities into the decision making and
protection process that can ensure the long-term safety of the
pipelines. Feeling ownership over the pipelines and being sure about
the positive impact to their communities can encourage people to take
an active role in the protection of the pipeline and serve as a
support resource to the government’s para-military protection units.
The resources of ordinary people should not be underestimated in this
case.
Fariz Ismailzade is a Baku based analyst focusing on Caucasus
politics and economics.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

DASHNAKS SUPPORT AMENDMENTS TO ELECTORAL CODE WHILE THEIR COALITION FELLOW MEMBERS OPPOSED
A1+
11-11-2004
On Wednesday, Armenian PM Andranik Margaryan told journalists the
government has no intention to change the ratio of the parliamentary
seats filled through party lists to those chosen in individual races.
It is known that Dashnaktsutyun, one of the ruling coalition parties,
supports the idea of holding parliamentary election on party lists
to increase parties â~@~Y role in parliament in order to increase
partiesâ~@~Y role in parliament. It means all candidates should be
partiesâ~@~Y nominees.
Improvement of the electoral code was the partyâ~@~Ys key objective
mentioned in the coalition memorandum.
Dashnak Levon Lazarian said Thursday it isnâ~@~Yt ruled out the party
can quit the coalition if it fails to reach accord on the amending
the code.
Karen Karapetyan, the head of the People Elective Representative
parliamentary fraction, said some concession can me made: the ratio
can be changed slightly by lessening the number of non-partisans
in parliament.
He voiced skepticism over necessity to alter the code saying greater
number of partisans in parliament might pave the way for corruption.
–Boundary_(ID_HJZg9izJElUQHNj/YYh3uQ)–
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ENVOY TO TURKEY: US UNEASY ABOUT KURDISH EFFORTS TO CHANGE KIRKUK DEMOGRAPHY
Anatolia news agency, Ankara
20 Oct 04
Kayseri, 20 October: US Ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman said on
Wednesday (20 October) that also the United States felt uneasy about
Kurdish groups’ attempts to change demographic structure in Kirkuk,
Iraq, by settling their families in the city.
Speaking at a conference held in the Erciyes University in central
city of Kayseri on “2004 Presidential Elections in the United States”,
Edelman said that there would not be serious changes in Turkey-US
relations following the presidential elections in the United
States. Stressing that the United States had been supporting Turkey’s
EU process since 1963, Edelman said that there could be a difference
between the two candidates (President George W. Bush and John Kerry)
about a resolution like the draft on so-called Armenian genocide. He
said that the candidates, sometimes, could not fulfil their promises
when they came to the power. He highlighted strategic importance of
Turkey-US relations.
Edelman said he believed that the Turkish government, the Iraqi heads
of state and government and the United States were in favour of
preserving Iraqi’s political unity and territorial integrity.
When asked, “who will be bombed next?” Edelman said that there had
been very sound relations between Turkey and the United States, and
any attack on Turkey would be out of question. Referring to the
relations between the Turkish prime minister and the US president,
Edelman said that those relations were further consolidated during
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Washington DC and
President George W. Bush’s visit to Turkey for NATO summit.
He said that Turkey and the United States had been working together to
find a solution to the Cyprus issue.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress