Defense Ministry denies rumors on Chief of Staff Onik Gasparyan’s resignation

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 13:49,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 25, ARMENPRESS. The Ministry of Defense of Armenia is denying rumors on Chief of the General Staff Colonel General Onik Gasparyan’s resignation.

“The ministry doesn’t confirm this information, there is no such thing,” Head of the Department of Information and PR of the Defense Ministry Gevorg Altunyan told ARMENPRESS.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

ICRC representatives visit Armenian POWs in Azerbaijan

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 16:18,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 24, ARMENPRESS. The representatives of the International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC) visited Armenian soldiers and civilians who are currently in the Azerbaijani captivity, the Armenian Unified Infocenter reports.

The Infocenter said that currently search operations for missing in action and recovery of dead bodies are underway by the mediation of the Russian peacekeeping troops and the ICRC representatives.

The search operations take place on a daily mode, covering all directions of the Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) border.

The Infocenter said the return of captives and the exchange of the bodies is one of the priorities of the government, over which collective efforts continue.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Spanish Congress adopts motion on Nagorno Karabakh

Public Radio of Armenia
Nov 24 2020

The Spanish Congress of Deputies has adopted another motion proposed by MP John Iñarritu, in which the Congress expresses its condolences to the families of the civilian and military victims of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The motion also reaffirms deep friendship with the Armenian people, highlights the importance of protection of Armenian cultural and religious sites under Azerbaijani control.

The motion stresses the importance of increasing EU humanitarian aid to the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, if necessary, as well as ensuring the return of internally displaced persons and refugees to their homes.

None of the political forces represented in the Congress voted against the motion.


Armenian Americans marvel at an elder’s generosity as they grieve over an ancestral home

Los Angeles Times, CA
Nov 22 2020

Persimmons were drying in the kitchen and a bowl of cracked walnuts sat on the table on this November day. Clara Margossian, 102, wore her favorite scarf tied around her head, knotted beneath her chin. The one she saves for company.

In the house she had built on old fig orchard land 40 years ago, she asked her caretakers, Nunufar Khalatian and Margo Ellison, to fetch a box of the See’s candy kept on hand for all occasions. But then she noticed the women, both Armenian immigrants, checking their phones, trying to hide tears.

“What happened?” Margossian asked, going suddenly still. “Is it the war?”

Six weeks earlier, as fighting escalated between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of antiquity and beauty in the Caucasus Mountains, Khalatian and Ellison had been too shocked to hide their emotions. They cried. They discussed how much money they were going to send to the Armenia Fund, a Los Angeles-based humanitarian relief organization. Khalatian sent $1,000. Ellison came up with $700. For both it was a sacrifice.

Margossian said she wanted to help too. No one in her family had ever been known for giving away money. But Margossian, the last of her clan and with no living relatives, told the church deacon in charge of her affairs to arrange a $1-million donation.

Quickly it spread throughout the diaspora that such a gift came to Armenia from a Fresno woman more than a century old — a daughter of the Armenian genocide of 1915.

Malia Urdahl, 4, sits with 102-year-old Clara Margossian in her Fresno home. Malia is the granddaughter of Nunufar Khalatian, one of Margossian’s caretakers.
(Nunufar Khalatian)

Ellison’s cousin in Armenia, home from the front lines, a bullet in his knee, called to ask if she knew who the woman could be.

She told him it was her Clara, the woman she worked for. She held up her tablet so he could speak to Margossian over video. He tearfully thanked her for helping a homeland she had never seen. He said that the money brought a special hope coming from a survivor of Armenia’s greatest tragedy.

Knarik Clara Margossian’s life spans the sweeps of history that define the Armenian experience. She was born in the shadow of the genocide and now, in old age, nightly watched YouTube updates of a war over lands her family fled.

Her mother was pregnant with Clara’s older brother when an estimated 1.5 million Armenians were killed and expelled by Ottoman Turk soldiers and police. Turkey continues to deny it was genocide.

Margossian’s older brother was born April 25, the day after the date recognized each year as the anniversary of the massacre. Her parents’ Turkish neighbors hid them. When the order went out that any Turkish families protecting Armenians would be killed, her parents began walking to Russia with a 3-day-old baby. Clara and her younger sister were born in Russia. One by one, their surviving relatives joined them.

The family of watchmakers prospered but remained cloistered and wary of outsiders. Neither Clara nor her siblings ever married. In the 1940s, like many Armenian families before them, they moved to Fresno, the first center of the Armenian diaspora in California. A family friend told them that if they set aside a little money each month for investing, they would be rich in their old age. Margossian still includes that man’s memory in her prayers.

The Armenian connection is written on the landscape of the Central Valley. The winter-gold grapevines on the outskirts of town, trays of raisins recently harvested, were first planted by Armenian settlers in the late 1800s. Holy Trinity Armenian Apostolic Church is still the jewel of downtown, even now, flanked by a flashy car dealership. Across the street, Valley Lahvosh bakery makes Armenian cracker bread shaped like hearts.

Many of the city’s family names end in “i-a-n,” the ancient suffix meaning “son of”. It is the setting of “The Human Comedy” by native son William Saroyan. His novel of ordinary people on the home front during World War II is considered an American antiwar classic.

Fresno became a de facto home front to the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war. At the Armenian school, the eyes of a mother dropping her children off were red and swollen from crying all night. Almost every day there was a “Pastries for Peace” or a kebab sale to raise money for Armenia. As in larger cities, people protested on street corners, fruitlessly demanding the United States intercede. In a country grappling with a momentous election, pandemic and civil unrest, their voices gained little traction.

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan backed oil-rich Azerbaijan with advanced weapons, Armenians in Fresno and elsewhere quaked, fearing the end goal was destroying Armenia itself.

In the evenings, Margossian usually liked to watch her favorite show, “Poldark,” a PBS saga tracing generations of a family through wars. But now she watched real-time Armenian war coverage. They always reported that Armenia was winning, despite the odds and even though Khalatian and Ellison received messages from home telling of terrible losses.

On Nov. 9, the reality was announced. Armenia’s forces were broken and facing certain defeat. The Armenian government accepted a Russia-brokered peace deal returning much of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Russian soldiers will patrol the area and enforce new borders.

The day Margossian noticed her caregivers crying was when they first saw photos of the Azerbaijani flag flying over Shusha, the hilltop city Armenians call Shushi, and which both Armenians and Azeris treasure.

Khalatian didn’t directly answer when Margossian asked: “Is it the war?”

“Clara-jan,” she said, adding an endearment often used by Armenians. “Your money will help people who need medicine and places to live, even more now.”

Margossian seemed to understand what that meant. Her eyes filled with tears.

“I want to give a message to the Armenian people,” said Margossian, who is deeply religious. “Tell them to keep faith in God and each other.”

Grief spread through the community as Armenians realized the region they call Artsakh, home to their oldest churches and monasteries, was lost. Ellison got word that family members, two young brothers on her father’s side, had been killed 25 minutes before the truce was announced.

Varoujan Der Simonian, director of the Armenian Museum of Fresno, grew up in Lebanon and has lived in Fresno for 41 years. He asked himself why the loss of this blood-soaked land devastated him and others even more generations removed from Armenia.

“I realized it’s because it’s inside me. It’s part of me,” he said.

In the courtyard of the church downtown, he knelt in front of the eternity circle, an Armenian symbol of infinity that is also carved in countless crosses throughout Nagorno-Karabakh, a place he’s visited many times on agricultural missions.

“I had trouble coming here today,” he said, looking at the symbol’s looping, unbroken lines. “This circle holds the love and creativity of the Armenian people. We will endure and continue to contribute to humanity.”

During the Soviet era, Turkish Azerbaijan and Armenia lived peacefully side by side. But Josef Stalin tried to erase religious and cultural identities by making Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian cultural touchstone, part of Azerbaijan.

When the Soviet Union broke up, both countries became independent. Nagorno-Karabakh, with its large Armenian population, tried to break away from Azerbaijan. Armenia invaded the disputed territory it considers a homeland but is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan, and drove 600,000 ethnic Turks from their homes.

The war ended in 1994, with 20,000 dead and Azerbaijanis vowing to someday reclaim what they consider their land. The Armenian commander in that war was Monte Melkonian, an Armenian American who grew up playing Little League baseball in the Central Valley.

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, 5,000 were killed in this war. Many of the dead were civilians. Refugees are flooding into Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, even as a pandemic continues to kill. The power in a volatile region has tilted to Turkey and Russia.

Varoujan Der Simonian stands at the Grave of the Unknown Martyr in Ararat Cemetery in Fresno. The grave symbolizes the lives lost in the Armenian genocide whose names are not remembered and bodies went unburied. 

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

At Margossian’s house, she watched on video as people in Armenia rioted over their country’s surrender and Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh, some of them burning their houses behind them.

Margossian asked if people were glad the war had ended. Khalatian reached for Margossian’s hand and gave it a comforting squeeze.

“I think the people whose children will make it home alive, on both sides,” she said, “are happy that it’s over.”

Russia donates one more mobile lab to Armenia

       

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 15:07,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 21, ARMENPRESS. The Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) has donated a mobile lab to Armenia’s healthcare ministry. The mobile lab is designed for conducting classical biological and PCR tests to detect specific dangerous infections.

During the inauguration ceremony of the lab at Yerevan’s National Center for Disease Control and Prevention Armenian Healthcare Minister Arsen Torosyan stated that it’s difficult to mention the numerous invaluable support provided by the Russian colleagues. “That support is valuable especially these days when our country is facing a difficult situation: the fight is on two directions – the pandemic and the problems caused by the military operations in Nagorno Karabakh”, Torosyan said.

He stated that Russia has provided and continues providing support to Armenia in the treatment of both infectious and non-infectious diseases. From the first days of the fight against the COVID-19 Russia is providing an invaluable support to Armenia’s healthcare system. “Today we are receiving another important support from our Russian colleagues. One more mobile lab has been donated to us which will help us a lot to fight against infectious diseases and prevent their spread”, he said and thanked the Russian side.

Rospotrebnadzor executive Anna Popova stated that the relations with the Armenian partners have a long history. She added that in the past 5 years they are implementing 6 joint Russian-Armenian projects.

This new mobile lab joins the already existing 5 ones. “It will provide an additional opportunity for diagnosing, preventing the non-ordinary disease which we all are dealing with”, Popova said.

 

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Russian Defense Minister discusses NK situation with Azerbaijan’s President and Defense Minister

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 17:07,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 21, ARMENPRESS. Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu is confident that the ceasefire regime in Nagorno Karabakh will be maintained also in the future, the minister said during the meeting with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and defense minister Zakir Hasanov in Baku on November 21, reports TASS.

“I think not so much time has passed from the historic statement signed by the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the peacekeeping forces are already stationed in 23 positions. Main highways are under control for ensuring the security in the Line of Contact. The process of return of refugees has started. Our work is giving results. The ceasefire is maintained now, and I am sure that it will be so also in the future”, the Russian defense minister said.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Turkish government keeps groups of Syrian fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh – SOHR

Public Radio of Armenia

Nov 17 2020

Very reliable sources have informed the Syrian Observatory that the Turkish government will keep groups of Syrian fighters in Azerbaijan, despite the suspension of military operations and the agreement reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia’s mediation.

Separately, Syrian Observatory have monitored the arrival of a new batch of nearly 30 fatalities of Turkish-backed mercenaries in Syria, after they had perished in earlier military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to SOHR statistics, the death toll of the Turkish-backed mercenaries since the Turkish government sent them to the frontlines in late September has reached 293, including 225 fighters whose bodies were brought to Syria while the rest of bodies remain in Azerbaijan.

SOHR says the total number of Syrian fighters thrown into Nagorno-Karabakh battles has reached 2,580, of whom 342 fighters returned to Syria after they had given up and forgone their payments.

Last week UN human rights experts expressed concern over the use of mercenaries in and around the conflict zone until a statement on ceasefire was reached.

The UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries said last week there were widespread reports that the Government of Azerbaijan, with Turkey’s assistance, relied on Syrian fighters to shore-up and sustain its military operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, including on the frontline.

The UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries said the fighters in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone must be withdrawn

https://en.armradio.am/2020/11/17/turkish-government-keeps-groups-of-syrian-fighters-in-nagorno-karabakh-sohr/


COVID-19: Armenia reports 1589 new cases, 1726 recoveries in one day

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 11:42,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 18, ARMENPRESS. 1589 new cases of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) have been confirmed in Armenia in the past one day, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 120,459, the ministry of healthcare said today.

1726 more patients have recovered in one day. The total number of recoveries has reached 80,069.

4109 tests were conducted in the past one day.

28 more patients have died, raising the death toll to 1839.

The number of active cases is 38,082.

The number of patients who had a coronavirus but died from other disease has reached 469 (6 new such cases).

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

‘A Drastic Measure to Avoid an Inescapable Calamity’: Why Pashinyan Should Resign

November 14,  2020



Artsakh Defense Army soldiers

Since the signing of the “end of war” agreement by Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan, opposition forces in Armenia, including the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, have been staging protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for signing the humiliating document that, among other provisions, surrenders Artsakh territory to Azerbaijan, including Shushi.

In its part, the ARF Western U.S. Central Committee issued a strongly-worded statement on Thursday reiterating the call for Pashinyan’s resignation. At the same time, a delegation of ARF leaders met with Armenia’s Consul General to Los Angeles on Thursday to express the party’s condemnation of the agreement and further drive the message that Pashinyan, who unilaterally signed the accord, must step down.

To provide analysis of the “end of war” agreement and to clarify the ARF’s position, Asbarez conducted an interview, via email, with Garo Madenlian, a member of the ARF Western U.S. Central Committee.

Below is the interview.

Asbarez: It is apparent by now that all Armenians everywhere are upset about the terms of the disastrous agreement signed by Pashinyan, but can you give us some of the specific issues?

Garo Madenlian: In addition to the 7 regions surrounding Artsakh that were at issue during settlement negotiations during the past two decades, this agreement also concedes the southern portions of Artsakh including Hadrut and up to and including Shushi. 2 of those 7 regions establish a new line of contact and border by which Armenia becomes extremely vulnerable to Azeri attacks. Further, it creates a transportation corridor across Armenia from Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan not only allowing unfettered access to for Azerbaijanis but also connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan and via Azerbaijan to the rest of the Turkic peoples east of the Caspian. This is something Turkey and specifically Erdogan, has wanted since the fall of the Ottoman Empire to further its Pan-Turanist agenda. For Armenia, in addition to being surrounded by Turks who continue the policies of genocide, it essentially creates the opportunity for an Azeri-Turkish coalition to seal Armenia’s border with Iran creating a noose around Armenia’s neck they can tighten at any time.

Asbarez: Does this surrender agreement actually secure portions of Artsakh including Stepanakert, Askeran and Martuni, and allow for people to return to their homes?

G.M.: On paper it gives the impression of establishing temporary security but since the final status of Artsakh is not confirmed, all those regions can and most likely be placed under Azerbaijani control. In either case, if this catastrophic agreement is not reversed, it would be next to impossible to imagine the Armenian population return to their homes as they would have to trust peacekeepers to keep Azeri-Turkish forces and Syrian ISIS jihadist mercenaries at bay. They would be surrounded by enemies without Armenian soldiers to protect them. The road to and from Armenia and Stepanakert would also be controlled by those same peacekeepers but remain vulnerable to Azeri forces occupying Shushi. Shushi has always been the key to peace and stability in the region because of its strategic location high above Stepanakert from where, even without their Israeli and Turkish drones, the Azeris can launch large scale offensives and rain missiles on the civilian population of Stepanakert and elsewhere, as they did until Shushi was liberated. And we all know that the Azeris committed war crimes against civilians, churches, schools and hospitals with cluster bombs and missile strikes during this war, all of which is well-documented, and they are more than willing and able to continue doing so. The Prime Minister himself has stated the Azeri-Turkish governments are continuing the Armenian genocide and thus it is unimaginable that he would now suggest Armenians return under these conditions and face such risks.

Further complicating matters is that the agreement calls for a return of displaced persons which includes Azeris who claim to have up to 800,000 prepared to relocate, including to Shushi and the surrounding areas.

Asbarez: How do you view Pashinyan’s assertion that he saved the lives of 25,000 Armenian soldiers by agreeing to these difficult terms?

G.M.: First of all, we can’t rely on the accuracy of the number of soldiers he stated because during one live broadcast alone he announced three different totals, the highest of which was 25,000. In addition. He has a track record of misleading the public in general, and especially during this war when he and the spokespersons for the Ministry of Defense repeatedly stated that we were winning, and then abruptly surrendered Shushi and claimed we’ve been losing all this time. Or by calling for volunteer fighters without enforcing a draft, and then closing the road from Goris to Stepanakert well before he surrendered Shushi. Now, he may also be announcing various numbers to confuse the enemy, but he already signed the agreement capitulating to their terms and called for a military withdrawal. There were many more inconsistencies but a primary indicator of his priorities is his populist agenda to retain his office, which resembles an ad campaign, such as when he made a poster portraying himself as the central character victoriously leading the Armenian nation out of this war while our soldiers were actually fighting and dying on the front lines. We all wish his PR campaign was actually true and that he saved Artsakh, but sadly it was not, and he actually sold us out.

Of course, every Armenian life is precious for us but we are surrounded by enemies and have a military complete with soldiers who serve at great risk and peril to themselves for the purpose of defending our people and our borders.

Asbarez: What can be done to reverse this tragic agreement and to help with the situation?

G.M.: First of all, we must remain strong and united for Artsakh and Armenia, and do everything possible to reverse this agreement that all Armenians find disastrous and should condemn. We need to carry out a multi-pronged approach where Armenia needs to immediately resume talks with Russia which can still play a key role with its military presence and can take concrete steps on the ground to reset negotiations. An important factor to consider here is Azerbaijan’s difficulty reaching Shushi due to limited access because of its location, which also raises questions about Pashinyan’s quick surrender.

Armenia also needs to quickly initiate discussions with France and the United States in line with the ANCA and EAFJD efforts, both of whom have already started parallel campaigns in the U.S. and Europe, and we encourage everyone to join and participate via the action alerts.

All three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries have their own interests in the region but can align with Armenia to create better terms to a cease fire agreement.

In order to do this and for the future of Artsakh and Armenia, Pashinyan must heed the calls for his resignation and allow for the immediate and peaceful transfer of power; a necessary step to restart negotiations. Only someone other than individual who agreed to give away everything to the Turks can undertake the process to undo this agreement or change its terms.

Of course, we have the humanitarian crisis with over 100,000 displaced persons, wounded soldiers and civilians, and families of our heroes who gave the ultimate sacrifice in defense of the Armenian homeland and people. We have an obligation and a duty to help them secure living arrangements, basic necessities, education, jobs, and medical care.

Asbarez: The ARF in Armenia along with other organizations have already called for Pashinyan’s resignation, is this something the ARF in the Western United States supports?

G.M.: Our announcement that was released yesterday makes it abundantly clear that the ARF Central Committee in the Western United States is in full agreement with the ARF in Armenia and completely supports its initiatives, especially in this regard. Pashinyan is the Prime Minister and commander in Chief of the armed forces and is ultimately responsible for this catastrophic failure, that some would call betrayal, and should be held accountable, without getting into all the other domestic problems and foreign policy issues he has created over the past 2 and ½ years. He entered into the agreement and cannot now restart negotiations by simply stating he changed his mind, nor has he shown any ability to communicate effectively with Moscow, or even France and the U.S.

This is not an endorsement of any of the past regimes who have all had their share of problems, and the calls for his resignation are not to further any internal political agenda, as all that was put aside for the war effort. This is simply to salvage an unimaginable and devastating problem created by the current regime.

Yes, we support ARF Armenia’s position whole heartedly and join in calling call for Pashinyan’s resignation, for the sake of our nation and in order to undo this disastrous agreement.

Let it be known that any Armenian who gives away our lands or puts Artsakh at risk is a traitor. Any Armenian who is complicit in this, or supports such treachery is also a traitor to the Armenian nation and will forever bring shame to their family’s name.

Asbarez: You mentioned that we must all remain united and stand strong with and for Artsakh and Armenia, doesn’t calling for the Prime Minister’s resignation create division instead of fostering unity?

G.M.: No. We are calling for a drastic measure to avoid an inescapable calamity created by the Prime Minister’s acquiescence to an untenable surrender agreement with the enemy.

The Armenian nation rose in defense of our people and our lands, united like never before, and fighting this war on all fronts in the Homeland and the Diaspora and should continue to do so together. We will continue this fight for Artsakh.

We are calling for unity, not merely for the sake of being united, but for our national goals based on our priorities, which today is Artsakh, and not for any single individual. Our call for unity remains engrained in our national agenda; the safety and security of Artsakh and its recognition by the international community, and any Armenian who dares cross this bright line would rightfully be deemed a traitor.

And in order to remain unified in this goal we cannot rally around the individual who misled the people then handed Artsakh, and probably Meghri, over to the enemy, and who currently arrests dissenters and attempts to silence critics instead of dealing with the humanitarian, political and military crisis while still looking for others to blame.

Based on the national agenda and priorities, all Armenians should be united in seeking to replace Armenia’s Prime Minister and overturn the agreement he entered into with the enemy.

Iran the big loser in Nagorno-Karabakh war

Arab News, Saudi Arabia
Nov 13 2020
An almost three-decades-old conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh was brought to an end this week after 45 days of hard fighting.
The conflict had its origins in the collapse of the Soviet Union. During this period, ethnic Armenians living inside Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region tried to break away and join Armenia. Armenia took advantage of the chaos and invaded the region, capturing a sizable chunk of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory.
A ceasefire agreement was signed in 1994, which, for the most part, held — albeit there were occasional minor skirmishes over the years. That same year, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe established the so-called Minsk Group to help broker a final peace — but it failed to do so.
Having grown impatient over the lack of progress in peace talks and the bellicose rhetoric coming from Armenian leaders, Azerbaijan decided to act. Major fighting kicked off in late September and was brought to an end this week by an Azerbaijani victory. With the help of Turkish and Israeli drones, and a lot of bravery from its soldiers, Azerbaijan was able to liberate large swathes of its territory from Armenian occupation.
Armenia is estimated to have lost approximately 40 percent of its equipment, including hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles and pieces of artillery. It is likely that Azerbaijan ended up capturing more equipment from Armenia than it lost on the battlefield — probably one of the few cases in history of an army ending a war with more equipment than it started with.
Turkey and Russia played a big role in the conflict. Russia traditionally backs Armenia, but in this conflict took a standoffish approach to the dismay of Yerevan. Turkey has always been close to Azerbaijan and has been in a protracted geopolitical competition with Russia over places like Syria, Libya, and to a certain extent Ukraine in recent years.
The peace agreement announced earlier this week was brokered by Russia with Turkish influence behind the scenes. It led to the surrender of Armenian forces inside Azerbaijan and the deployment of a small Russian peacekeeping force to regions in Nagorno-Karabakh with a sizable Armenian minority. While a lot of the commentary has been focused on what Armenia’s defeat means for Turkey and Russia, one country that was a big loser in this conflict was Iran.

Iran will have to devote time, resources, and troops to adjust to the new geopolitical reality along its northern border with Azerbaijan.

Luke Coffey

For historical reasons Iran sees itself as entitled to a special status in the South Caucasus. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were once part of the Persian empire. Today, Armenia and Iran enjoy cozy relations.
Azerbaijan is one of the predominately Shiite areas in the Muslim world that Iran has not been able to place under its influence. While relations between Baku and Tehran remain cordial on the surface, there is an underlying tension between the two. During the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in the 1990s, Iran sided with Armenia as a way to marginalize Azerbaijan’s role in the region.
There are three reasons why Iran is a big loser in this conflict.
Firstly, it remains to be seen how Azerbaijan’s victory will play out with Iran’s sizable Azeri minority. Azeris are the second-largest ethnic group in Iran. During the conflict there was a lot of pro-Azerbaijani rhetoric and protests on social media and on the streets in support of Baku by ethnic Azeris. The Iranian regime was very careful to appear balanced during the conflict, but at the same time stifled many of these pro-Azerbaijani protests. There is a constant low-level push for self-determination and increased autonomy in northern Iran for the Azeri minority. Although this has not materialized into a mass movement for independence, it makes some in the Iranian leadership nervous.
Secondly, Iran will have to devote time, resources, and troops to adjust to the new geopolitical reality along its northern border with Azerbaijan. This could mean less Iranian focus on other places such as the Gulf and Syria. Part of the Azerbaijan-Iran state border has been under Armenian occupation since 1994. Now that this border is back under the control of Baku, a new security dynamic has been created between the two countries. Also, the presence of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers — now only 100 km from the Iranian border — is bound to make many in Tehran nervous. Although Russia and Iran have enjoyed good relations in recent times, the two have been rival powers in the region for centuries. Iran has already started to deploy more military assets along its northern border. It remains to be seen whether this is just a temporary measure or will become permanent due to the new security situation on the ground.
Finally, it is unclear how Azerbaijan’s success in the war will affect its bilateral relationship with Iran. Azerbaijan has strived to maintain cordial relations with Iran because it relied on access to Iranian airspace and territory to supply its autonomous region of Nakhchivan — an exclave of Azerbaijan nestling between Iran, Armenia and Turkey. In addition to transit rights, Azerbaijan also relied on Iran to provide natural gas to Nakhchivan. As part of the recent peace deal, Armenia is opening up a corridor through its territory to allow Azerbaijan to transport goods directly to Nakhchivan. In addition, earlier this year Turkey announced a new natural gas pipeline to supply Nakhchivan with energy. Iran is less important for Azerbaijan now and it is likely that the dynamics in the bilateral relationship will change in Baku’s favor.
Iran has many problems. A stagnant economy, political unrest at home, the fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the never-ending costly interventions in places such as Syria and Iraq. The last thing Tehran needs right now is a change to the cozy status quo it has enjoyed in the South Caucasus for the past three decades.
Unfortunately for Iran, this is exactly what is happening.

  • Luke Coffey is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey