Author: Hambardsumian Paul

Armenia’s prime minister claims the large-scale migration amounts to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing”, while the Baku government argues the departure of the region’s residents is “their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation”.

A mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh has virtually emptied the breakaway territory after Azerbaijan took back control in a military operation.

More than 100,000 have now fled to Armenia from the disputed region, which had a population of around 120,000 before Baku launched the successful lightning offensive, according to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR).

The number of vehicles to cross the Hakari Bridge, which links Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, since last week has topped 21,000.

Some families were forced to queue for days because the winding mountain road that is the only route out became jammed with traffic.

Meanwhile, Armenia has asked the EU for temporary shelters and medical supplies to cope with the influx, Italy has said.

The flight of more than 80% of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population has raised questions about Azerbaijan’s plans for the enclave that was internationally recognised as part of its territory, but which had been run by an ethnic Armenian breakaway state since the 1990s.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has claimed the large-scale evacuation amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland”.

But Azerbaijan has rejected the accusation, arguing the mass migration by the region’s residents was “their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation”.

During three decades of conflict in the region, Azerbaijan and the separatists backed by Armenia have accused each other of targeted attacks, massacres and other atrocities, fuelling suspicion and fear on both sides.

While Azerbaijan has pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, many are fleeing because they do not trust the Baku government to treat them properly or guarantee their language, religion and culture.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said his “iron fist” had consigned the idea of an independent ethnic Armenian Karabakh to history.

After six years of separatist fighting ended in 1994 following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of ethnic Armenian forces, backed by Armenia.

Then, during a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan took back parts of the region in the south Caucasus Mountains along with surrounding territory that Armenian forces had claimed earlier.

In December, Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, accusing the Armenian government of using it for illicit weapons shipments to the region’s separatist forces.

Weakened by the blockade and with Armenia’s leadership distancing itself from the conflict, ethnic Armenian forces in the region agreed to lay down arms less than 24 hours after Azerbaijan began its offensive.

Talks have begun between officials in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku and Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist authorities on “reintegrating” the region into Azerbaijan.

https://news.sky.com/story/nagorno-karabakh-most-people-have-left-enclave-for-armenia-as-azerbaijan-retakes-control-12973147

Russian humanitarian aid arrived on Tuesday in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh via territory controlled by Azerbaijan, separatist authorities in the Armenian-populated enclave said.

Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of spurring a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh by closing the sole road linking the mountainous territory with Armenia.

That link, the Lachin corridor, is policed by Russian peacekeepers as part of a ceasefire agreement Moscow brokered between the ex-Soviet Caucasus nations in 2020.

Baku has rejected the claim, saying Nagorno-Karabakh could receive supplies via Azerbaijani-controlled territory.

“The Russian Red Cross’s humanitarian aid was delivered to the Republic of Artsakh (on Tuesday),” the rebel government’s information centre said, using Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian name.

Azerbaijan’s Red Crescent confirmed the report, saying that the truck belonging to Russia’s Red Cross arrived in the city of Stepanakert via the Aghdam road which links the region with the rest of Azerbaijan.

Earlier in September, Azerbaijan agreed to simultaneously reopen, for humanitarian supplies, both the Lachin corridor and the Aghdam road, but said Armenian separatists rejected the proposal.

Yerevan and international aid groups have warned of dire shortages of food and medicine.

Tension over aid comes as both sides blame each other for cross-border clashes.

Last week, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned of the risk of a fresh all-out conflict, accusing Baku of massing troops along the two countries’ shared border and near Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars for control of Nagorno-Karabakh and the last fighting in 2020 ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire that saw Armenia cede swathes of territory it had controlled for decades.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently said Moscow was either “unable or unwilling” to control the Lachin corridor.

Baku and Yerevan have been unable to reach a lasting peace settlement despite mediation efforts by the European Union, United States and Russia.

Armenia is facing another existential crisis.

Azerbaijan is blockading the small statelet of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), preventing medical, fuel, and food supplies from entering the country. An emboldened Ilham Aliyev is taking advantage of this situation to stoke the flames of prejudice and push Azeri forces into Armenia proper.

The Consequences of War

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020 forced Artsakh’s president, Arayik Harutyunyan, to cede large portions of territory to Azerbaijan for the first time in decades. Azeri forces, equipped with firepower and mercenaries from neighbouring Turkey, pushed deep into the statelet, taking multiple cities from Armenian forces. Azeri forces left a trail of atrocities during the month-long engagement. At the end of the war, Armenia’s “friend” Russia brokered a tenuous ceasefire agreement that left Artsakh crippled and Armenia in a state of shock.

Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, called the arrangement at the time, “unbelievably painful for me and my people.”  The agreement left Artsakh with four key cities and dozens of villages lost to Azeri occupation. A disinterested Putin gave the security of Armenia to the authoritarian leader of Azerbaijan and by extension Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while Armenians were left with nothing but occupation. The importance of this agreement cannot be understated because the conditions agreed therein, such as Clause 9 stating that, “all economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked” have yet to be honoured.

Russian peacekeepers deployed to disputed areas around Artsakh are failing to maintain the peace; Azeri forces have attacked regions such as Martuni with artillery and harassed Armenian forces to test the limits of the ceasefire. Aliyev’s forces are empowered to do this by the change in attitude of Putin. Despite Armenia being part of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), Putin is pivoting towards Azerbaijan in diplomatic and economic matters, while sidelining Armenia.

Pashinyan, echoing the sentiment of many Armenians that feel Russia is not taking their concerns seriously, voiced the possibility of Armenia leaving the CSTO in May. Speaking to Yerevan media and quoted by the Moscow Times, Pashinyan said that “I am not ruling out that Armenia will take a decision to withdraw from the CSTO…” The reason for the bulk of discontent with Moscow is because of a lack of action that Russian peacekeepers are taking in the emerging humanitarian crisis in Artsakh.

The Lachin Corridor Crisis

The Lachin corridor that connects Artsakh with Armenia, and the outside world has been blocked since December 12. Azeri agitators operating under the veil of eco-activists have blocked the only road into the enclave. This agitation is a deliberate provocation by the Azerbaijan government to constrain 120,000 residents in a show of force to Yerevan and Stepanakert. Azeri forces are bolstering the blockade through deployment of forces, cutting off gas supply and creating a security checkpoint to regulate traffic into the region to suffocate Artsakh. This is despite the ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague to unblock the road in late February this year.

What is the justification from Baku for this?

Azerbaijan wants to reclaim control over the corridor and pressure the parties to the original agreement to acquiesce to Azerbaijan’s revanchist claims over Artsakh. This provocation is just a continuation of a series of moves that Aliyev feels empowered to make in the wake of Baku’s victory in 2020 and Moscow’s embroilment in Ukraine. It is a provocation impacting the lives of Armenians, disregarding international humanitarian norms, and showing the world the extreme nature of Azerbaijan’s war against its neighbour.

Growing Anti-Armenian Sentiment

Aliyev’s victory over Artsakh is emboldening a new wave of anti-Armenian sentiment, with the long-standing leader of Azerbaijan increasing his genocidal rhetoric against Armenians. The war had offered a new vehicle for the Azerbaijan government’s longstanding prejudice. An example of this is on full show with Baku’s “Military Trophies Park” where adults and children can walk around displays that dehumanise Armenian soldiers and include the real helmets of dead Armenians. Visitors to the museum can see the victory of Azeri soldiers over the destroyed vehicles, helmets, and equipment of Armenians in what can only be best described as a public show of jingoist hatred.

In December, during the start of the blockade, Aliyev proclaimed to the nation in a speech that, “present-day Armenia is our land” and, “When I repeatedly said this before, they tried to object and allege that I have territorial claims. I am saying this as a historical fact. If someone can substantiate a different theory, let them come forward.”

These irredentist claims set forth by Aliyev makeup the Baku government’s new, “Great Return” policy. The policy that is ongoing aims to resettle Azeri people onto Armenian land under the guise of restoring “Western Azerbaijan” to its “former” glory. Aliyev is sending thousands of Azeris to resettle Artsakh and take the homes of former Armenian residents.

Last month on a visit to the newly incorporated city of Lachin, Aliyev told residents that Armenians living in Artsakh “either…will come to us humbly, or events will develop in a different direction”.  This is important to note, because Aliyev is not joking with these words and his government is enacting policies designed to change the demographics of the region—in other words, ethnic cleansing. Every action, including the blockade, is a message to Yerevan and to the people of Armenia that they are not welcome in the region.

The Fear of Genocide

The Armenian people suffered one of the greatest genocides in history. What they see happening in Artsakh is an occupying power that threatens to erase the Armenian identity.

“We are not speaking about political or inter-ethnic conflict, we are talking about ongoing process of genocide, and not just its preparation.” Pashinyan told AFP in a recent interview in July, referring to the situation in Artsakh.

The prime minister is not exaggerating the situation with this hyperbolic phrasing. Officials from the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS) are noting that the actions of the Azeri government with its rhetoric, blockade and atrocities towards Armenians are “significant genocide risk factors.” It is not an exaggeration then to state that the actions of the Azeri government are deepening this concern.

People are rallying to speak out against the blockade in the streets of Stepanakert left unoccupied by Azerbaijan. Loved ones in neighbouring Armenia are showing an outcry of support for those facing starvation in the fledgling republic. I spoke with Ani Poghosyan, an Armenian Human Rights advocate and producer who has long been following this situation from its onset. I asked her what she would like the world to know about what is going on…

“The disregard of Artsakh and Armenia is very shortsighted.” She went on to say: “It’s terribly shocking and heartbreaking just how lonely and abandoned Armenians are in their fight against a dictatorship the brutality of which at times far exceeds that of Russia. If we as a global community are to stand for what is right (just as we are rightfully doing so for Ukraine), then we should be very straightforward and bold in the pushback against the dictatorship of Baku. Abandoning of principles for shortsighted interests is like opening Pandora’s box.”

Ani’s concerns represent the concerns of many Armenians trapped in Artsakh and those in neighbouring Armenia including those in the international diasporas abroad. Armenians are doing their part to raise awareness of a critical situation developing in their homeland. Armenian National Committee of America is just one organisation amongst many that is currently providing members of Congress and public officials information on the situation in Artsakh.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Robert Menendez is one official that is vocal about the situation in the region. Speaking about the blocking of International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) aid workers to the Lachin Corridor by Azeri troops, Menendez said the following:

“More than 7 months into Azerbaijan’s blockade, the time is now for the US & its allies to exert pressure on Aliyev. Lives hang in the Balance.”

Menendez’s sentiment reflects growing concern within Congress of the need for action against the Azeri government for this affront to international norms and violation of human rights.

What Should Be Done?

The current situation in Artsakh is at a critical juncture.

Tens of thousands of people are cut off from aid. International aid organisations such as the ICRC are unable to move through the Lachin corridor. Requests from legal bodies like the ICJ and European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) to unblock the passage are being ignored by Azeri authorities. Armenian interlocutors in Yerevan and Stepanakert are left now with little option but public appeal.

There are still options available to the international community to stop the situation from escalating. These actions are complicated to enact but involve measures that aim to open the corridor and address the situation directly.

Artsakh is still not recognised as an independent polity by the international community. The non-recognition of Artsakh is used to bar the government in Stepanakert from negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh. Appealing to the United Nations General Assembly or more importantly the Security Council to recognise a viable way forward to acknowledge the self-determination of the people of Artsakh and arrange a formal treaty to protect those people’s rights. If this is not possible to do, then an action in remedial secession should be supported.

Remedial secession refers to the act of a region, territory or aspiring state seeking unilateral secession from a parent state in response to grievous human rights abuses or systemic discrimination to its population. It is a controversial position to support since it directly challenges the principle of territorial integrity of the parent state, but if negotiations and other peaceful measures are not sought, then remedial secession may become a viable last resort option.  The most notable case of this was when Kosovo enacted remedial secession to separate from Serbia.

Another argument is to set up a demilitarised zone in the Lachin corridor. A demilitarised zone that is observed by a concert of international observers beside Russian peacekeepers, so France, Germany, and other EU states or alternatively the US, would help maintain a semblance of order in the area and allow for the free movement of people in and out of the zone. International peacekeepers that are not direct party to the ceasefire accords will get push back from Russia and Azerbaijan, which is why that pushing such measures through the UNSC or European Parliament should be considered.

A more poignant consideration is pressuring Azerbaijan to stop through the imposition of targeted sanctions on the Azerbaijan government and defence sector can limit Azeri forces. The United States and EU have a variety of sanctions available to utilise in applying pressure to the government, such as the Magnitsky sanctions, CAATSA sanctions (for Russian weapon procurement) and other similar policies (a reversal of the waiver on Section 907 of the US Freedom Act should also be considered). What the aim should be with any form of targeted sanction is to prevent the Azerbaijan government from pursuing hardline policies against Armenians.

International observers can do their part to raise awareness on the situation unfolding in Artsakh. Petitioning local congress and parliamentary officials to voice up about this situation is something that readers can practically do. The Azerbaijan government is deathly afraid of international attention on this issue. It works within its own country to suppress vocal criticism. If there is enough pressure, then it cannot suppress discontent on an international level.

A Warning from History

Aliyev’s government is determined to maintain a strong hold of Artsakh. This determination mirror’s the passion of Slobodan Milosevic’s government in keeping Kosovo within Serbia. Kosovars during the conflict in the Balkans fought extensively to free themselves from the oppression of Milosevic’s regime. NATO even intervened in the late 1990s to avert genocide with an eleven-week bombing campaign. This campaign forced Milosevic to the negotiating table.

The war in Kosovo provides a historical warning of what can happen if the situation is allowed to escalate to the point of no return. There are other historical tragedies that can be evoked, but the point is clear that the crisis in Artsakh needs immediate resolution.

The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/armenias-existential-crisis-understanding-the-siege-of-artsakh/

LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other on Thursday of moving troops close to their joint border as tensions over the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave rose even as the two countries said they remained committed to a peace process.

Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenian authorities, is at the centre of a rancorous standoff, with Azerbaijan restricting movement along the only road to it from Armenia to thwart what it says is arms smuggling.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Thursday accused Azerbaijan of conducting an “ongoing military build-up along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border”, according to Armenian state news agency Armenpress.

Armenia’s foreign ministry, which said Yerevan was not interested in military escalation and was ready to continue efforts to secure a peace deal, said the information had been confirmed by various sources.

Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry rejected the Armenian assertion in a statement which called on Yerevan to end what Baku called “military and political provocations.”

“These claims are…part of another fraudulent political manipulation,” the foreign ministry said.

Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, told Reuters that Azerbaijan’s armed forces were conducting pre-planned drills in preparation for the autumn and winter.

“It’s part of the regular planning process,” said Hajiyev, accusing Armenia in turn of concentrating troops on the border and of purchasing new weaponry systems.

He said ethnic Armenian forces inside Nagorno-Karabakh had also come out of their regular barracks and deployed to front line positions in what he said was a high level of alertness.

Armenia did not comment on its own troop movements.

“Our strategy is about deterrence and deterring any armed or illegal military actions or provocations against Azerbaijan,” said Hajiyev.

Russia, which has maintained peacekeepers in the region since a 2020 war in which Azerbaijan seized back significant amounts of territory it had lost to Armenian forces in the 1990s, said on Thursday it was continuing to fulfil its role as a security guarantor in the South Caucasus.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticised Armenia’s decision to host a joint exercise involving 85 U.S. soldiers next week as unhelpful however.

“In this situation, holding such exercises does not contribute to stabilising the situation in any case and strengthening the atmosphere of mutual trust in the region,” Peskov said.

“But Russia continues to fulfil its functions as a guarantor of security, Russia continues scrupulous, consistent and constructive work with both Yerevan and Baku.”