KARABAKH CLASHES RISK ESCALATION – EU ENVOY
Matt Robinson
Reuters
Sept 8 2010
TBILISI, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Intensified skirmishes around the rebel
Caucasus enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh risk spiralling out of control
at the heart of a key energy transit region, a senior European Union
envoy warned.
Peter Semneby, the EU’s envoy to the South Caucasus, said the ceasefire
between Azerbaijan and Armenian-backed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh
should be strengthened, possibly with the deployment of more
international observers after a summer of intensified skirmishes. Four
Azeri soldiers were killed last week.
Renewed conflict almost certainly would have an impact on energy
supplies to the West, with Azerbaijan host to oil majors including BP,
ExxonMobil and Chevron.
The BP-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline ships 850,000 barrels of
Azeri crude daily to the Mediterranean, skirting Nagorno-Karabakh.
“I think that both sides are very much aware of the risks and costs
of an escalation … but there’s always the risk that something can
go out of hand,” Semneby told Reuters late on Tuesday in Tbilisi
after a trip to Azerbaijan.
“You have a lot of people, soldiers, on both sides who are nervous. In
the heat of events, if something happens, it can easily get out of
control and this is something we have to take seriously.”
Clashes have worsened since 2008 around the mountain enclave, where
ethnic Armenian Christians, backed by Armenia, threw off rule by
Muslim Azerbaijan as the Soviet Union collapsed two decades ago.
“It is a precarious situation we have along the Line of Contact,
because it is … a self-regulated ceasefire with the two parties
facing each other without any separation force in between,” Semneby
said.
“I think the ceasefire regime needs to be strengthened.”
Semneby said one possibility would be to deploy more observers,
saying the six-person monitoring mission of the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was limited in its ability
to monitor and investigate.
AZERI BACKLASH
Armenian-backed forces have held Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding
Azeri districts forming a land corridor with Armenia since the
ceasefire was declared in 1994. An estimated 30,000 people were killed
and more than a million displaced.
Years of OSCE mediation led by French, Russian and American envoys
have failed to produce a peace deal and Azerbaijan — spending heavily
on its military with revenues from oil sales — frequently threatens
to take the region back by force.
Tensions have been fanned by a rapprochement beginning in 2008
between Azeri ally Turkey and Armenia and the possibility that Turkey
would open their border, which it closed in 1993 in solidarity with
Azerbaijan during the war.
An Azeri backlash led to the collapse of the Russian and Western-backed
deal in April. But diplomats say the process seriously unnerved
Azerbaijan, fearing it would lose leverage over Armenia in the conflict
over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Low intensity skirmishes have killed around 3,000 people, mainly
soldiers, since 1994, but observers say clashes have become more
frequent and intense since early 2008.
“This summer we have seen the most serious skirmishes along the line
of contact for more than two years,” said Semneby.
Military analysts warn that an Azeri military bid to retake the
territory could be disastrous, with Nagorno-Karabakh heavily fortified
since the war and holding the high ground.
“I believe the Azerbaijani leadership is aware of the enormous risks
and potential costs that would be associated with an attempt to
resolve the conflict by military means,” Semneby said.
From: A. Papazian