Washington and Tehran on the verge of a fragile memorandum and a new war

In the first days of July, the direct and indirect military strikes between Iran and the United States, the outbreak of sharp rhetoric showed that the existing temporary arrangements and the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran could not ensure complete stability. Therefore, the situation in the region can get out of control at any moment.

The parties are actually returning to the logic of a managed crisis, where military pressure and the diplomatic process are applied in parallel. If during the previous weeks the main goal was to preserve the fragile ceasefire formed after the war, then the escalations of the first week of July became a risky period of preparation for the next round of negotiations, during which both sides tried to strengthen their negotiating positions through a show of force, without taking into account the possible irreversible consequences.

US President Donald Trump announced on July 6 that the United States will either make a deal with Tehran or “finish the deal”, referring to the US-Israeli joint attack on Iran launched on February 28. The Iranian side described the US president’s words as “illusory”, calling to speak with the Iranian people with respect, “otherwise we will respond in another language”. This was followed by information from Western periodicals that the Iranian military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the evening of July 6.

According to the AXios publication, Tehran’s strikes threaten to violate the memorandum of understanding signed on June 18, in which Iran agreed to stop attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the media also predicts that the US is likely to retaliate against Iranian targets.

In turn, the UK Maritime Trade Office (UKMTO) reported that on July 6, a tanker traveling south along the coast of Oman through the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile, which caused a fire. On the evening of July 7, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) carried out airstrikes against the military bases of the IRGC and its allies in the east of Syria, Tehran responded in the early morning of July 8 by shooting down an American reconnaissance ATS in the Strait of Hormuz and shelling the locations of the American contingent in Iraq.

Along with military operations, harsh statements were made. The US Defense Minister emphasized.

“We will not allow the security of our forces to be threatened and we will respond to any aggression by taking all necessary measures,” to which the Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces stated.

“Any miscalculation on the part of the US and disruption of regional stability will receive a disproportionate and crushing blow, directly from our own side.”

US President Donald Trump also announced that the memorandum of understanding signed to end the conflict with Iran is “finished”, adding that he no longer wants to communicate with Tehran.

“For me, I think everything is over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They are vile people,” said Trump.

“They are sick people. They are led by sick people. They are cruel, violent people, and if they had nuclear weapons, they would use them. This issue is over for me,” President Trump said. The US president also noted that negotiations with Iran can continue, but added:

“For me, dealing with them is just a waste of time. They are liars.”

Trump made this statement in Ankara, before the NATO summit being held in the capital of Turkey. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters before the NATO summit that new US attacks on Iran were “absolutely necessary”.

Kaya Kalas, head of EU foreign policy, wrote later in X. “The skirmishes between the US and Iran further complicate the already tense negotiations to end the war. Iran’s attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait are unacceptable.”

Speaker of the Iranian parliament and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Russian Orientalist Victor Nadein-Raevsky 168.amtold that the peculiarity of the situation is that the military escalation and the diplomatic process are interrelated, and any tactical step taking place in the field immediately reshapes the agenda of the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad. According to him, there are several scenarios for the development of the situation, one of which is a manageable de-escalation, according to which mutual strikes are a re-establishment of the “red lines” of the parties, there is no desire to wage a big war. In another scenario, he said, the escalation could spiral out of control.

“A stalemate, a situation of ‘no war, no peace’ can also develop.” In the case of all these scenarios, the logic of the negotiations scheduled days later changes, putting their effectiveness in doubt.

This crisis showed that diplomacy without military pressure and military pressure without a diplomatic window no longer work in US-Iran relations. Most likely, the region will follow the path of the first scenario. The meeting in Islamabad will become a political platform for “ceasefire”, where the parties will try to capitalize on the military results recorded in the field in recent days. But the lack of guarantees of stability means that any subsequent mistake could start a more dangerous wave of escalation,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

In his opinion, this new escalation of US-Iran relations is directly projected on the environment of the South Caucasus, further increasing the vulnerability of the region, competition, tension in and around the region.

“The deepening of the crisis between Washington and Tehran affects the South Caucasus, any Western presence in the Caucasus is now perceived by Iran as a possible attempt to block the USA. At the same time, the restoration of economic pressures and the issue of regional communications worry Iran and force it to work more actively in the region, trying to neutralize possible risks for itself,” Victor Nadein-Raevsky said.

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