TRIPP, an object of geopolitical bargaining? What is Russia up to?

Armenian-Russian relations are at the most critical stage of their post-Soviet history, where diplomatic coolness can turn into confrontation.

The “silence” established in relations since June 7, the indifference shown to bilateral official contacts, high-level phone calls and each other’s political agendas, seems to have been softened by the Armenian side today. According to the message of the Russian Government, a telephone conversation between Pashinyan and Mishusti took place at the initiative of the Armenian side.

This was the first Armenian-Russian high-level phone call after the parliamentary elections held in Armenia. According to the announcement of the RA government, the interlocutors discussed agenda issues of Armenia-Russia cooperation, which related to the trade-economic, scientific-technological and cultural-humanitarian spheres. By the way, it is noteworthy that the Russian side did not congratulate Pashinyan on his re-election, even though the issues related to violations in the elections continue to be discussed in the CC.

The other day, talking about his visit to Moscow and the elections, which he announced on June 1, Pashinyan said that there was no scheduled meeting, and that there will be contacts with the Russian side in the near future.

Perhaps Pashinyan meant the telephone conversation with Mishustin. Pashinyan answered the question: Is a meeting planned within the EAEU session to be held in August? “There is a meeting of the intergovernmental council and the prime ministers are participating, the presidents are not.”

In other words, the Russian President will not participate in the August meeting, but Mishustin will. Therefore, if the Russian side does not congratulate Pashinyan at the highest level even after the completion of the legal processes in the RA CC, the situation in Armenian-Russian relations will become unprecedented. All this will prove that the relations are not experiencing a temporary crisis, but have faced serious problems. The threatening rhetoric coming from Moscow, the harsh application of economic levers, and the public dissatisfaction with Yerevan’s foreign policy actions show that the Kremlin has switched to an openly intolerant policy regarding Armenia’s foreign policy orientation.

Along with all this, remarkable announcements are being made from Russia. Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Galuzin stated that the TRIPP project will pass through the territory, the security of which is ensured by the Russian and Armenian border guards, so Yerevan will have to take Moscow’s position into account in any case.  He noted that Russia’s participation would only benefit the project.

“Trump’s route” will pass through the zone guarded by the Russian border guards, who have been serving for decades together with their Armenian colleagues in the direction of protecting the borders of Armenia, Turkey and Iran. Therefore, in one way or another, it will be necessary to take into account the opinion of Russia, it will also be necessary to take into account the opinion of the Eurasian Economic Union. That is why we believe that Russia’s participation would only benefit the project,” he said.

He also specified: “Transit through the territory of Armenia, by the way, if we are talking about the Eurasian Economic Union, should be carried out in accordance with the norms and rules of the Eurasian Economic Union, from which Armenia, as it declares, does not want to leave.”

RA Deputy Foreign Minister Mnatsakan Safaryan also said yesterday in a conversation with “Azatutyun” radio station that at the moment TRIPP is being implemented in the RA-US format, an agreement has been signed and it is in the process of implementation. The deputy foreign minister, answering the question whether the effectiveness of TRIPP from Moscow without the Russian side is being questioned, is Moscow’s involvement in TRIPP in any format acceptable for official Yerevan or can it be discussed in the future, he also emphasized. “I didn’t want to say anything about the future at this time.”

Mnatsakan Safaryan noted that at the moment the Republic of Armenia is a member of the EAEU, and the transit rules are based on the EAEU regulations, so he hinted that the TRIPP will be based on the EAEU regulations. “The EAEU customs regulations are carried out by our customs bodies, so we don’t see a question there,” stressed the deputy foreign minister.

The statements of the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin regarding the TRIPP project are not accidental. Galuzin, using the theme of Russian-controlled border and infrastructure leverage, directly implies that any transportation project in Armenia without Moscow’s “dabro” or direct participation is doomed to uncertainty.

This approach of Moscow, of course, has a clear goal: to return the lost control over regional communications. The Russian side’s arguments about EAEU norms, the width of railway lines and border security actually show Russia’s desire to participate in TRIPP. RA Deputy Foreign Minister gave a cautious response to another Russian assertion of this content.

However, there is a subtle question hidden here: is it possible for the parties to make a “big bargain” on this issue in a situation where Russia is putting pressure on the RA authorities, raising the issue of withdrawing Armenia from the EAEU in case of the continuation of Armenia’s European integration agenda?

In this situation, it is possible that Galuzin’s statement is an invitation to negotiate on this issue. Moscow can eliminate the economic restrictions, the tough position on the EAEU issue towards RA, if the RA authorities provide the Russian side with technical participation in TRIPP. If Russia’s participation in TRIPP is ensured in any way, it can become the point that will soften the current acute crisis of Armenian-Russian relations.

With pressure, Moscow is trying not only to solve the issue of RA’s foreign policy, but also to strengthen it if possible. And TRIPP can be one of the options.

The Kremlin is not only trying to curb Yerevan’s foreign policy orientation towards the West, but is also looking for security and economic tools with which it will be possible to maintain its influence in the region. For Yerevan, the problems in the Russian direction are complicated: will the small cooperation on TRIPP become a means of de-escalation of relations, will Moscow accept the small cooperation, at the same time, it is unlikely that the RA authorities actively cooperating with the West will give more leverage to Russia in TRIPP and find themselves dependent.

After all, no matter how deep the factors of the bilateral crisis are, judging by the statements, Russia seems to be preparing for negotiations at this stage.

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