In the shadow of a fragile ceasefire. US-Iran negotiations begin

Steven Wittkoff, the special envoy of the US President, left for Switzerland to participate in the first round of negotiations on the nuclear deal with the Iranian delegation. This was reported by the American news portal Axios, referring to its source in the USA. According to him, another representative of the White House, the son-in-law of the country’s President Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, is already in Switzerland.

According to Axios, the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdel Rahman Al Thani, who is one of the main mediators between the United States and Iran, arrived in Switzerland on June 19. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi plans to arrive in Switzerland on June 20, but the plans may change, the source of the periodical claims.

Another Axios interlocutor said that Araghchi announced to his partners in the mediating countries in the negotiations with the US on June 19 that the establishment of a ceasefire in Lebanon is of “crucial importance” for Iran. Sources claim that the Iranians want to see a stable ceasefire in the region before the start of negotiations, so it is not yet clear whether the meeting date of the delegations of the two countries has been set.

The negotiations between the representatives of Washington and Tehran were supposed to take place on June 19. During them, it was planned to sign a memorandum of understanding between the two countries. One of its main points is the cessation of hostilities along the entire front, including in Lebanon. The document also assumes that a 60-day period of negotiations between the US and Iran begins from the date of its signing, during which the parties must agree on the final version of the peace agreement. However, the document was finally signed on June 17, remotely, and the meeting in Switzerland was “postponed”. On June 19, the media reported that the parties managed to reach an agreement on a ceasefire.

Let’s remind that yesterday the negotiations between the USA and Iran scheduled in Switzerland were postponed. The White House clarified that the visit of the American delegation was postponed due to “logistical” problems. Meanwhile, according to the Iranian media, Tehran postponed the visit of its delegation due to the ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. However, yesterday afternoon, a ceasefire was established between Israel and Hezbollah.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Vladimir Yevseyev said that the planned contacts on the Swiss platform are presented as diplomatic progress, but they are still the initial stage of the negotiation process. According to him, despite the signed memorandum and the negotiation process between the parties, there are differences between the parties regarding the limitation of Iran’s nuclear program and regional security architecture. “Iran is trying to connect the nuclear issue with a broader political and security agenda, including the issues of ending military escalation in Lebanon, Gaza and the Middle East in general. That strategy partially gives its results, but the start of negotiations does not guarantee a quick result, and the process can face new obstacles at any moment, taking into account the politics of the players included in it,” said Vladimir Yevseyev.

He believes that if Washington and Tehran manage to form another interim agreement, its influence will go beyond the scope of bilateral relations, a possible big deal can contribute to the reduction of regional tensions and the revision of the regime of sanctions against Iran. “Such a development will also strengthen the diplomatic role of Qatar and other intermediary states, forming a new balance in the Middle East. However, the fragility of the process is due to the fact that any military incident or political crisis can quickly destroy the agreements reached,” he said.

According to Vladimir Yevseyev, the possible agreement will have significant consequences for the South Caucasus as well.

“If Iran gets out of the most severe stage of international isolation and gets additional opportunities, its positions in regional projects will be strengthened. It can affect the transport and economic processes around Armenia, increasing Tehran’s participation in regional initiatives.

At the same time, even a limited progress in the normalization of US-Iran relations will reduce the risk of a large-scale military conflict, which is a positive factor for the countries of the South Caucasus. Therefore, the negotiations starting in Switzerland should be considered not as a final milestone, but as the first step in a long process. Its results can reshape the balance of power not only in the Middle East, but also in neighboring regions,” said Vladimir Yevseyev.

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