168: War in the Persian Gulf. water or oil, which is more important now?

With the start of US and Israeli military operations against Iran, analysts traditionally focus on the condition of commodity markets, be it hydrocarbons, aluminum or fertilizers. However, the real strategic resource that is under attack is fresh water.

The issue of freshwater scarcity is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, but its discussion is rarely placed in the context of current armed conflicts. The operation launched by the US and Israel in February of this year clearly demonstrated how devastating the impact of military operations on water security can be. Fortune magazine recently noted․ The decisive factor in the war with Iran is not oil, but water.

The war unleashed by Washington is having an extremely negative impact on the problem of water scarcityas a result of both direct destruction and the influence of mediated economic and climatic mechanisms. The regional aspect of the problem is more obvious. We are talking about the immediate destruction of vital infrastructures. One of the most obvious and alarming manifestations of the conflict was the targeted attack on water supply facilities. In the conditions where the Persian Gulf countries are the most water-scarce countries in the world, their dependence on desalination plants turns into a strategic vulnerability. The region produces about 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water, operating more than 400 plants along the coast.

According to The Economist, the arid Arab countries of the Persian Gulf increasingly rely on desalination, which provides 90 percent or more of drinking water for Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, and nearly as much for Oman. For Saudi Arabia, this indicator is 70 percent, and for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – approximately 40 percent. This under these conditions, any serious damage to water infrastructure facilities is tantamount to a humanitarian disaster. The countries of the Persian Gulf depend on thousands of water treatment plants, the most productive of which are located along the coast. And this makes them easily accessible for missile and drone strikes.

Although Iran relies much less on desalination capacity, Western sources report that the country’s water shortage is still quite severe. Over the decades, construction of dams and large-scale water abstraction have depleted the reserves. Almost a third of Iranians face water shortages. Given the current situation, the war is unlikely to help Tehran’s already modest cooperation with neighboring countries on water issues. at the same time As the conflict continues, Iran may cut off water supplies to its Gulf neighbors։ However, the probability that it will run out of water is increasing, summarizes The Economist.

Attacking civilian water infrastructure is traditionally considered a war crime. There have already been reports that the American troops attacked the water treatment plant on the Iranian island of Qeshm. Bahrain, in turn, accused Iran of attacking one of its desalination plants. Earlier, when Donald Trump abandoned his threat to destroy Iranian power plants, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it would retaliate by striking water facilities in the Persian Gulf countries.

Macquarie analysts warn. A strike on key facilities such as desalination plants will be a sharp escalation step.. In one of the analytical reports published a few years ago, it was calculated that if the water infrastructure of Saudi Arabia were to be disabled, then the capital, Riyadh, with its eight and a half million inhabitants, would have to be evacuated within a week.

The scale of dependence on a single object is amazing. The complex in Jubail produces 1.6 million cubic meters of water per day. The American embassy in the Kingdom once gave such an assessment. without Jubilee Station, the Saudi government will simply cease to function.

Most likely, Iran’s refusal to attack the water infrastructures of the pro-Western countries in the region is not a weakness, but a conscious diplomatic move. By avoiding attacks on the most vulnerable link of the infrastructure of its neighbors, Tehran actually sends them a clear and unambiguous signal. “We are able to dramatically escalate the situation, but we don’t do it consciously. “Maybe you should put pressure on the US and demand a de-escalation before we cross that line.”

At the same time, in addition to direct destruction, the conflict has triggered mechanisms whose impact on water resources is delayed in time, but no less destructive. These mechanisms are global in nature and turn the regional war into a factor of global water instability.

Thus, the collapse of the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 50 percent of the world’s urea and sulfur exports pass, has led to the collapse of the fertilizer market. The FAO described the situation as “one of the most rapid and serious disruptions in global commodity flows in recent times.” Between February and March 2026, urea prices increased by almost 46 percent. This directly affects agriculture. Agricultural producers around the world face the impossibility of buying fertilizer, which leads to a decrease in yields.

The relationship between fertilizers and water resources is twofold. On the one hand, declining yields force farmers to expand acreage or increase irrigation water intake to compensate for losses, which increases the burden on depleted aquifers. On the other hand, in the long run, the food crisis leads to the destabilization of states and, as a consequence, a weakening of their ability to invest in water-saving technologies and support water infrastructure.

Climate damage and its implications for hydrology also occur. According to available data, several million tons of greenhouse gases were released into the atmosphere during the first two weeks of the conflict, which exceeds the annual carbon footprint of 84 countries combined. The bombing of oil fields and infrastructure has resulted in the so-called “black rains,” precipitation laden with soot and toxins that not only threatens public health but also contaminates surface water. As a result, such consequences of military operations have long-term negative impacts on climate change, which in turn act as a “threat multiplier” for water security. According to pessimistic estimates, the climate footprint of this war will be felt for decades, exacerbating the global water crisis outside the theater of war.

The political consequences of the conflict could be extremely negative for the international water cooperation system: Attacks on civilian water infrastructure, which qualify as violations of the Geneva Conventions, set a dangerous precedent of impunity. Where transboundary water disputes are escalating, the erosion of international legal norms is fraught with increased conflicts over control of water sources.: Analysts stress that continued attacks on desalination plants threaten to knock out life support systems that serve around 100 million people. The destruction of a single plant can leave entire cities without water in countries where alternative sources are virtually non-existent.

Meanwhile, the availability of water dictates new rules for agriculture. Yield growth is already weakly dependent on areas and agro-technologies. water determines almost everything. World Bank experts have calculated, that we would only be able to feed 3.4 billion people within the environmental limits of the planet. The rest of the food is the result of relentless consumption of resources. The main problem is not how much water is used, but its extremely uneven distribution between countries and sectors.. Bank specialists are convinced that both the architecture of the agrarian sector and the budget policy ignore this factor. As a result, product volumes are increasing, but along with them, system limitations are also accumulating.

Recently, Victor Danilov-Danilyan, scientific head of the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences noted․

«The water crisis is intensifying in the world. consumption increases and fresh water available for use becomes less. Russia, which has the second largest amount of water resources on the planet, receives both economic benefits and serious difficulties due to this.”

The expert emphasizes that renewable water resources play the main role. According to his estimate, over the last hundred years, taking into account pollution and over-consumption, humanity has already lost about 20 percent of available water.: This deficit does not yet pose a direct threat to human life, but it will inevitably lead to a reshaping of the global economy, as cheap water will become increasingly scarce. According to the scientist, the solution will be the transfer of production to other regions and the change of the structure of consumption.

In this sense, the US-Israeli war against Iran could be a turning point in the recognition of water security as an integral part of global stability.։ The conflict clearly demonstrated that water infrastructure has transformed from a passive element of the utility economy into a strategic target and tool of pressure.։

The regional crisis in the Middle East, through the disruption of food and fertilizer supply chains, climate damage and the erosion of international law, is having a powerful negative impact on water resources policies around the world.

In the conflict between the USA, Israel and Iran, the main attention of the world community is focused on direct losses and geopolitical consequences. And here, apparently, the damage done to water resources and infrastructure remains unaccounted for. Meanwhile, another Gulf War has not only exposed the critical vulnerability of water systems in the arid region of the Middle East. It has provoked a number of global consequences that could worsen the already tense situation with water resources in a large part of the planet.

The scale of the consequences dictates the need for a radical review of approaches to the protection of water systems. National governments should diversify water supply sources as well as decentralize water management infrastructure and strengthen its sustainability and security.: At the international level, the need to create effective mechanisms to hold accountable for attacks on water infrastructures, as well as to integrate water security issues into the agenda of peacekeeping and climate diplomacy has matured.: Experts emphasize that without it, any efforts to combat the water shortage may be nullified by new wars, the main theater of which may not be oil fields, but desalination plants and reservoirs.

Andrey Kadomtsev

political scientist

interaffairs.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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