Russia Pressures Armenia to Stay in EEU Amid Shift Toward EU

Last week, at the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), an economic cooperation body of former Soviet states held in Astana, Kazakhstan, an unusual joint statement was issued. The statement, co-authored by the leaders of four member states—Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan—effectively pressured Armenia, another member. It labeled Armenia’s early last month summit with the European Union (EU) to strengthen cooperation as a “serious threat to the economic security of EEU member states.” It further demanded that Armenia hold a referendum to decide whether to remain in the EEU or join the EU. On the 2nd, Russian food quarantine authorities announced a suspension of imports of Armenian fruits, citing failure to meet sanitary standards. Russia is also waging a disinformation campaign to influence the upcoming Armenian general election on the 7th in its favor.

Armenia has historically maintained close ties with Russia. After enduring centuries of oppression under empires like Rome, Persia, and the Ottoman Turks, Armenia sought survival by aligning with the Russian Empire, a fellow Christian power, from the 17th century. Even after the Soviet collapse, the two countries remained close. However, as Armenia recently strengthened cooperation with the EU and the U.S. in economic, resource, and security fields, signaling a shift away from Russia, Moscow has escalated its offensive across multiple fronts.

Russia Anxious Over Loss of Regional Control

Armenia is the smallest former Soviet state by area (13.5% of the Korean Peninsula) and has a population of 3.1 million, roughly a third of Seoul’s. Russia’s sensitivity to Armenia’s moves stems from its role as a “geopolitical pressure point.” Located in the South Caucasus, a strategic crossroads connecting the Middle East, Europe, and Central Asia, Armenia’s potential alignment with the West could drastically weaken Russia’s control over the region, which has served as a gateway for Russian influence into the Middle East for over 200 years. Armenia borders NATO member Turkey and Iran, which is at war with the U.S.

A decline in Russian influence over Armenia could enable NATO’s eastward expansion and sever Russia’s ties with Iran. This could also unsettle other nations in the Russia-led former Soviet cooperation bloc. Anna Ohanyan, a Eurasian expert at Stonehill College in the U.S., told France 24, “Armenia is diversifying its foreign policy to escape Russia’s periphery, but Putin insists on a geopolitical dichotomy centered on Russia.”

Russia Attempts Disinformation Ahead of Elections

On the 5th of last month, Armenia and the EU held a summit in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, discussing cooperation in energy, trade, and security. The EU pledged 30 million euros in military aid. Earlier, the Armenian parliament passed a resolution in March to pursue EU membership, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Armenia. On the 27th of last month, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Yerevan. During this trip, Armenia signed an agreement with the U.S. on mineral resource supply and the establishment of a transport corridor linking Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. For Putin, these events constituted a series of provocations.

Signs of strain in Armenia-Russia relations emerged in 2023. Armenia was deeply disappointed when Russia did not support it during its decades-long territorial conflict with Azerbaijan, an Islamic country within the former Soviet sphere. In response, Armenia boycotted meetings and joint exercises of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance of former Soviet states, to express discontent. Since then, it has accelerated its pro-Western, anti-Russia policies under the guise of diplomatic diversification.

Leading this policy shift is Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a former journalist who came to power in 2018 after leading protests that ousted a pro-Russia regime. After ending the war with Azerbaijan, he has further accelerated pro-Western policies. If Pashinyan, who is seeking a third term, wins the general election on the 7th, Armenia’s shift away from Russia and toward the West is likely to gain momentum. Analysts predict Russia will intensify its disinformation campaigns in the coming days to sway public opinion. The European Parliament’s Legislative Research Service stated, “Signs of Russia’s election interference and disinformation campaigns in Armenia are being detected on the ground.”