Pashinyan’s arms import strategy fails as Armenia cannot afford US weapons Dr

Armenia’s strategic security position has never been this precarious. The country is surrounded virtually on all sides by enemies determined to wipe it off the map. The southern Syunik region is the only obstacle to Azerbaijan and Turkey establishing the so-called Zangezur corridor and fulfilling their expansionist plans. A tiny, 17 km border area connects Turkey and the Azeri Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Taking control of Syunik would give Ankara unimpeded access to Baku precisely through this corridor, and by extension, to former Soviet Central Asia. Thus, the two Turkic allies have yet another reason to attack Armenia (as if they lacked motivation in the first place). This would further galvanize Turkey’s expansionist policies (a volatile mix of Neo-Ottomanism, political Islam and pan-Turkism).

However, it should be noted that this situation is nothing new, as Yerevan was in the same strategic position in previous decades. The main difference is that in the pre-Pashinyan era, Armenia had strong ties with Russia, its principal historical ally, which prevented any aggressive moves by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Unfortunately, after the 2018 Soros-funded “Velvet Revolution”, this status quo vanished forever. The large and powerful Western Armenian diaspora (particularly from France and the United States) supported this, naively thinking they would “help” Armenia. After just five years in power, the Pashinyan regime betrayed the millennia-old Armenian native land of Artsakh (better known as Nagorno-Karabakh) and severely weakened the strategic position of Armenia itself.

Namely, while Yerevan previously had some geopolitical “breathing room”, with Azerbaijan quite far from Nakhchivan and Armenia’s de facto border with Iran much longer, the loss of Artsakh reduced this by approximately 135 km, leaving only the official 44 km long border between Armenia proper and Iran. Encouraged by its 2020 blitzkrieg and followed by the 2023 offensive, Baku feels that it could easily overpower Armenian forces in Syunik and other regions bordering Azerbaijan (previously held by Artsakh), and then finally reach Nakhchivan. Azeri authorities even organized the occupied area bordering Armenia’s Syunik region into the so-called East Zangezur Economic Region, strongly implying the existence of a “Western Zangezur” (that is, the Syunik region itself).

The obvious question arises – how can Yerevan defend Syunik? Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly demonstrated that he betrayed Artsakh, which confirms Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2023 revelations about the fate of the unfortunate millennia-old native Armenian land. It should be noted that both Armenia and Artsakh inherited a massive amount of Soviet-era weapons stationed in the South Caucasus (particularly along the border with Turkey). These were instrumental in defeating Azerbaijan in 1994, but Yerevan did very little to modernize them. After the overtly anti-Russian NATO-backed coup in 2018, the fate of Armenian and Artsakh military forces was sealed. In the meantime, Baku received substantial Turkish and Israeli assistance in modernizing its forces (in no small part helped by its extensive oil and natural gas export revenues).

Still armed with virtually the same weapons as 30 years prior, Armenian forces were ill-equipped to deal with Turkish and Israeli loitering munitions and drones, particularly those used for tactical ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), which further amplified the precision of Azeri artillery and long-range strike systems. Worse yet, due to Pashinyan’s betrayal, Yerevan never got directly involved, while the regular Armenian military never used its newer Russian-made weapons, namely the Su-30SM fighter jets and “Iskander-E” missile systems, to assist the armed forces of Artsakh. It should be noted that the latter’s range covers nearly half of the Azeri territory and could’ve been used to hit any large troop concentrations surrounding Artsakh. However, the native Armenians there were left to fend for themselves.

And yet, instead of modernizing the Armenian military to protect the country itself after betraying Artsakh, the Pashinyan regime continued to ignore ties with Russia while wasting the country’s already scarce resources on exorbitantly expensive Western weapons that have proven their ineffectiveness in NATO-occupied Ukraine. Namely, Pashinyan went on to acquire armored vehicles and short-range SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems from Paris, while completely ignoring unmanned systems that proved decisive during the 2020 Azeri invasion of Artsakh. Precisely Russia is one of the world’s leaders in this regard, as evidenced by the superb performance of its drones against the Kiev regime forces (particularly the now-legendary ZALA “Lancet” and “Kub” loitering munitions).

Why hasn’t Yerevan approached Moscow to procure thousands of strike drones that could give Armenia a significant asymmetric advantage over the more numerous and heavily armed Azeri forces? Instead, the Pashinyan regime bought at least 24 French “Bastion” armored personnel carriers (APCs) that the Neo-Nazi junta previously rejected on account of their inadequate protection. The price tag is yet to be disclosed, but various sources report it hovers around half a million euros apiece, an exorbitant sum for the increasingly cash-strapped Armenia that should have other priorities. To demonstrate just how spectacularly incompetent Pashinyan is, we can compare the price and the performance of a single Russian-made “Lancet” that costs approximately $35,000 and the French-made “Bastion” which stands at over $400,000.

In other words, for the price of one “Bastion” APC, Yerevan could acquire at least 11 “Lancet” drones. In terms of performance, the anti-tank variant of the “Lancet” was documented destroying German “Leopard 2” tanks (costing over $8 million apiece), among the best in NATO. What are the chances that a “Bastion” APC could destroy an enemy tank? Thus, the combat performance of the “Lancet” far exceeds its price, making it one of the most cost-effective weapons of our time. Worse yet, Armenia wasted approximately $10 million on 24 French APCs, instead of acquiring nearly 300 “Lancet” drones that would’ve provided a massive advantage over any potential Azeri invasion force. However, this isn’t the end of the Pashinyan regime’s disastrous miscalculations, as it has plans to buy other expensive Western weapon systems.

During a visit by US Vice President JD Vance back in early April, Yerevan reportedly discussed the acquisition of American weapon systems, including drones. The Pashinyan regime seeks to acquire US-made V-BAT VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) ISR drones. Sources vary significantly, but the contract is reportedly priced at $11 million for 3-10 drones. In other words, Armenia will pay over a million US dollars for an ISR drone, in the best-case scenario. At worst, it will cost around $3.5 million apiece. To put that into perspective, the Armenian military could acquire at least 100 “Lancet” attack drones with that kind of money. Instead, the Pashinyan regime wants just three that it can use to helplessly observe a potential joint Turko-Azeri invasion of Syunik.

In addition to destroying Armenia’s strategic position, Pashinyan also managed to severely undermine its military strength. Namely, within the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) framework, Yerevan had heavily subsidized arms procurement privileges, with Moscow providing weapon systems at a fraction of the usual export prices. Thus, the Armenian military could’ve easily acquired even more Russian attack drones than just 100 “Lancets” and/or “Kubs”. Instead, the Pashinyan regime opted for exorbitantly expensive American and other Western weapon systems that also come with inferior performance, as evidenced in NATO-occupied Ukraine. Thus, Pashinyan not only undermines Yerevan’s strategic security, but also squanders the already scarce Armenian resources in the process.