The activation of the Kars-Gyumri direction reduces the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway

On April 28, a meeting of the Armenia-Turkey joint working group for the restoration and operation of the Gyumri-Kars railway took place in Kars.

In the context of the expansion of transport communications in the region, the parties emphasized the importance of the early launch of the Gyumri-Kars railway.

This statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia was followed by the statements of the EU and the USA that they welcome the concrete steps taken in the direction of reopening the economic and public relations between Armenia and Turkey.

On the American side, in addition to the US Embassy in RA, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barak also responded to this event, considering the meeting of the Armenia-Turkey joint working group and the agreements on the restoration and operation of the Gyumri-Kars railway as an important milestone for regional communication and peace.

“Armenian and Turkish officials met in Kars, Turkey to announce the creation of a joint task force to repair the Kars-Gyumri railway, a vital trade and transit link that united the region for more than a century until the last train crossed the Turkey-Armenia border in July 1993.” X noted on his page he

And what question does the restoration of the Gyumri-Kars railway solve for Armenia, Turkey and the entire South Caucasus? Is this a purely economic project or a geopolitical one?

On the mentioned issues 168.amhas talked Analytical “Base”. of the center expert Shiraz Khachatryan with

– It is clear that the restoration of the Kars-Gyumri railway is primarily a geopolitical game, where each interested party tries to strengthen its position in the region.

The “optimistic” agenda presented by the Armenian authorities actually collides with the hard logic of geopolitics, where any infrastructure for other actors first of all turns into a tool of influence, and for us, you don’t know what?

In essence, any theoretical route through Armenia is considered for the West from the point of view of a channel bypassing Russia and Iran. And here a double situation is created for Armenia. on the one hand, talk of economic activation, and on the other, new addictions. The factor of Turkey is especially sensitive, the operation of the railway can form a disproportionate interdependence, where Ankara theoretically gets leverage to influence the economic viability of Armenia.

At the same time, the project can reshape the regional balance, especially for Georgia. The activation of the Kars-Gyumri direction reduces the “exclusivity” of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, which will inevitably affect the transit role of Tbilisi and may cause tension in Armenian-Georgian relations. However, the key issue remains the issue of control. as long as the railway system of Armenia is governed by the agreements concluded with Russia, the talk about “sovereign infrastructure” will become limited.

The lack of technical and operational control means that any geopolitical pressure can quickly turn into practical constraints. In any case, if the blockade is not accompanied by clear political guarantees, security mechanisms and real control over the infrastructure, then it can turn into a new form of dependence rather than development.

– Last year Kars–Put it on–Do it–Diluju railway construction of the program in context one other in the interview talk we are Gyumri–Akhuryan sector recovery of necessity about: At that time you noticed that Along with the information about the construction project of the Kars-Igdir-Aralek-Diluju railway, official announcements are silent about the Gyumri-Akhuryan section, which contradicts the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative presented by Pashinyan himself, one of the components of which was the restarting of that railway.

Moreover, you mentioned that if it becomes possible to bypass Armenia with the Azerbaijani-Turkish plan, having a direct railway exit from Turkey to Nakhichevan, then in that case, Armenia is left out of the regional logistics map, and the promised, so to speak, crossroads of peace actually turns into a one-way crossing line, which Armenia is not the beneficiary of.

More late in February of this year, Armenian side russian side with to discuss was Gyumri–Akhurik–Turkey and: Pledge–Nakhichevan railway infrastructures recovery the questions: Time will tell what will happen in the final calculation.

– The projects you mentioned fit into Turkey’s long-term strategy aimed at deepening its influence in the South Caucasus and expanding control over regional communications. It is clear that Ankara today seeks not only to open new channels, but also to form a transport architecture in which it is the key hub and intermediary, connecting Transcaucasia with Central Asia and the wider Turkish-speaking world. Especially important is the fact that Turkey, by creating bypass communication channels, is trying to reduce the geographical “isolation” factor of Armenia, not for the sake of Armenia’s interests, but for the purpose of strengthening its own regional positions.

In other words, Armenia is brought out of “isolation”, but at the same time it is involved in the system of other dependencies, where the key levers of control are located in external centers.

In this logic, the Gyumri-Akhuryan direction is seen as an additional access for Turkey to the territory of Armenia and the region, while the Yeraskh-Nakhijevan section has a wider strategic importance in connection with ensuring a direct connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey. This second direction is already included in the processes that are often characterized as “corridor politics”, where the priority is not the sovereign control of the given state, but the fast and uninterrupted transit for external actors. In the context of all this, the rhetoric about overcoming Armenia’s isolation can actually turn into a new geopolitical arrangement, where the country is not freed from restrictions, but appears at the crossroads of various influences, especially those distributed among Turkish forces.

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