A possible US-Iran deal would have a direct impact on South Korea

Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Vahe Davtyan writes: “A possible US-Iran agreement will have a direct impact on the security architecture of the South Caucasus.

The lifting of the naval blockade, the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, the unfreezing of at least half of Iranian financial assets and a number of other factors will inevitably affect the logic of the American presence in the Greater Middle East, including the Caucasus.

1. Tehran can rethink the TRIPP project or at least stop considering it as a “red line”. Under the conditions of the new configuration, TRIPP can turn into an important route for Turkey’s energy supply, which solves not only economic but also strategic problems. Currently, NATO’s agenda includes the creation of an autonomous fuel system in order to supply the alliance’s military infrastructure. This system also includes the construction of a new fuel infrastructure between Turkey and Eastern Europe (Turkey-Romania oil pipeline), which I wrote about the other day.

According to my prediction, in the near future, Washington will start promoting the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project with new momentum, without which the entire energy-transport architecture that is being formed will become highly vulnerable. In this context, the South Caucasus can gradually turn into a structural element of NATO’s logistics system.

2. Under these conditions, an increase in supplies of Iranian energy carriers to Turkey is possible. Note that until 2026 At the end of July, a gas supply agreement with the annual volume of 10 billion cubic meters between Iran and Turkey is valid. in 2025 actual deliveries made about 7.7 billion cubic meters. Turkey has already expressed its willingness to extend the contract.

This can strengthen the competition in the Turkish market, weakening Baku’s negotiating opportunities in the framework of the energy dialogue with Ankara. The data is more than telling. in 2025 Turkey’s total pipeline gas import was about 57.9 billion cubic meters, of which 21.1 billion cubic meters came from Russia, 11.9 billion cubic meters from Azerbaijan, and 7.7 billion cubic meters from Iran.

3. The significance of the Caucasus is growing as an area of ​​intersection of the Middle East and Eurasian politics. If Iran partially leaves the regime of isolation, then the competition will not be moved to the field of its containment, but to the field of controlling the routes of movement of Iranian energy carriers and goods.

It automatically increases the strategic value of the South Caucasus for all external actors. In other words, the Caucasus is gradually ceasing to be a periphery of global processes and turning into a key platform of the ongoing struggle for the control of new logistics and energy flows.

—