Artsakh’s political and civic actors appeal to int’l community

Panorama, Armenia
Dec 11 2023

More than 120 parties, public organizations, media outlets, and leaders of the local self-government bodies of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh Republic) signed an appeal to the international community on the occasion of the Day of the Referendum on Independence, the Constitution Day of the Republic of Artsakh, and the 75th anniversary of the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights marked on 10 December.

The addressees of the appeal are: the UN Secretary-General, the UN Security Council, the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, the Council of Europe (Secretary-General, President of the Parliamentary Assembly, President of the Committee of Ministers), the President of the European Council, the President of the European Parliament, the Secretary-General of the CIS, the Secretary-General of the CSTO, and the Secretary-General of NATO. The invitation remains available for additional signatures. Entities interested in joining are encouraged to send a formal request via email to the following address: [email protected].

The text of the appeal and list of signatories are provided below and are also accessible here.

The STATEMENT made by the political and civic actors of the Republic of Artsakh reads as follows:

THE APPEAL OF THE POLITICAL AND CIVIL ORGANIZATIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARTSAKH TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

Addressees: UN Secretary General, Members of the UN Security Council, OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Council of Europe (Secretary General, PACE President, Chairman of the Committee of Ministers), President of the European Council, President of the European Commission, President of the European Parliament, CIS Secretary General, CSTO Secretary General, NATO Secretary General.

A free people cannot renounce its sovereign rights and submit to the rule of an alien state, especially one ruled for many years by an authoritarian, corrupt and racist regime, intoxicated by its impunity.

Our collective decision to leave our Homeland – the Republic of Artsakh (the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), our homes, our Armenian churches, leaving behind the relics of Saint John the Baptist (Surb Hovhannes Mkrtich) and the graves of our ancestors, which we have protected for centuries, is the proof to the whole world that freedom is the highest value for the people of Artsakh. We have made this forced decision amidst ongoing genocidal actions and looming serious existential threats.

We made this decision because those who call themselves champions and defenders of freedom and human rights decided to deny us our right to live with dignity in our homeland and our right to self-determination, thus aiming to achieve an imaginary peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and for the sake of their own geopolitical interests.

We left because it was the only way to guarantee our safety and preserve our human and national dignity and our gene pool, expose the big lie, on which the political idea of unilateral and forceful resolution of the conflict was based, by forcing us and our children to accept citizenship and swear allegiance to the regime that hates us.

For more than three decades, we have defended with all our might our children's right to peace and free development. We opposed the political deals that were offered to us at the expense of our sovereign right to live in our Homeland, won at the cost of lives and enormous sacrifices of many generations during the long centuries of struggle to preserve our national dignity and identity. And this struggle is not over. We are confident that we will regain our Motherland with the power of truth and justice.

For those who think that the world can be ruled by lies and brute force, we repeat the following:

The Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) was proclaimed on September 2, 1991, by the legitimate authorities of the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO) and the Shahumyan Region of the Azerbaijani Soviet Social Republic, when the authorities of the latter announced their decision to secede from the USSR. The political Declaration on proclamation of the NKR was based on the legal norm of the Soviet law in force at that time and the will of the Artsakh people, expressed in a national referendum. Our right to self-determination was recognized even by the authorities of Soviet Russia and Azerbaijan in 1920, and became the basis for creation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region in 1923, was enshrined in the constitution of the USSR, the constitution of the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic and its law “On NKAO”, and was preserved in the Law “Concerning the procedure of secession of a Soviet Republic from the USSR” of April 3, 1990, and is also based on the UN Charter and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of 1966. The referendum of December 10, 1991, confirmed that the absolute majority of voters supported the decision to declare the independence of our Republic. The legitimate parliament, elected according to democratic standards and in the conditions of a genocidal siege and armed aggression, adopted on January 6, 1992 the Declaration of Independence of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic, Artsakh. Thousands of our compatriots paid for this choice with their lives.

In 1992, all CSCE/OSCE member states recognized the right of elected representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh to participate in the OSCE international conference mandated to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In a referendum in 2006, our people approved the Constitution of the Republic, which defined the procedure for electing legitimate representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh and their powers; in 2017, again in a referendum, the people approved a new Constitution. This Constitution was and remains the only fundamental document by which the citizens of our Republic are guided and obeyed of their own free will.

Accordingly, we, the citizens of the Republic of Artsakh, in an effort to defend our legal rights and the right to preserve the subjecthood of our Republic, affirm that the self-determined Nagorno-Karabakh did not take any part in the formation of the constitution and authorities of the self-proclaimed Republic of Azerbaijan, and, on the contrary, declared its independence. However, the newly formed Azerbaijan did not hide its baseless claims to Nagorno-Karabakh.

It was in such conditions that the international community recorded the fact that there were disagreements over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, recognizing the disputed nature of this territory. Armenia and Azerbaijan then became participating countries of the CSCE/OSCE on the condition that they recognized the existence of disagreements over the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and agreed that the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh would be determined at a peace conference under the auspices of the CSCE/OSCE. Both states have assumed an international obligation to resolve the issue exclusively by peaceful means.

However, once it became an CSCE/OSCE participating state, Azerbaijan immediately violated its international obligation to resolve disputes peacefully. Official Baku illegally used force against the NKR as a disputed territory in order to prevent holding an international conference to determine the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. In those conditions, the people of Nagorno-Karabakh exercised their right to self-defense. The armed aggression of Azerbaijan in 1992-1994 resulted in its defeat with significant territorial losses. It is important to emphasize that the Line of Contact between the NKR and Azerbaijan was internationally recognized.

However, during the three decades of the conflict, not a single statesman, politician or international legal authority answered a simple question: why Azerbaijan and other states that have legally recognized the obligation to follow the rule of law as a fundamental principle of their statehood, can disregard the obligation to respect the right of self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh and the principle of non-use of force, both arising from that fundamental principle?

This circumstance allowed Azerbaijan to retain in its policy arsenal the strategy of annexation Nagorno-Karabakh through the forced expulsion of its indigenous people. Azerbaijan’s aggressive policy has yet to receive due international condemnation. International actors, contrary to their international obligations to bear responsibility for protecting the population from genocide (Responsibility to Protect), unfortunately, did not pay due attention to the warnings contained in the Statement of the Parliament of Artsakh of July 27, 2023 about the most serious existential threats facing the population of Artsakh, did not prevent the criminal actions of Azerbaijan, which committed another military aggression against the NKR in September 2023 and completely expelled the indigenous Armenian population of Artsakh from their historical Homeland.

It should be recalled that after conclusion of truce on November 9, 2020, the President of Azerbaijan stated that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem no longer exists, and everyone must come to terms with the results of the Second Karabakh War. In an effort to change the essence of the conflict, Azerbaijan has introduced into its diplomatic vocabulary a false narrative of “Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani lands,” through which it attempts to mute legitimate concerns about its aggressive genocidal policy.

We do not intend to compromise our principles, beliefs and our rights in relation to our own Motherland, neither in the face of force, nor under the threat of destruction, neither in exile, nor under any other political circumstances.

The whole civilized world faces a choice today: either to restore the international order in Nagorno-Karabakh, based on respect for the right to self-determination and other rights and freedoms of peoples and human rights, or to agree that blockade, armed aggression, genocide and occupation are legitimate ways to resolve conflicts.

Today, leaders of many states speak about the need for the return of Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh. However, we believe that for the peaceful, safe and dignified return and life of our people in their homeland the following indisputable conditions are required:

First, we rule out the return of citizens of the Republic of Artsakh to the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani armed forces, police and administration must be completely withdrawn from the territory of the Republic of Artsakh, including the Shahumyan region, where too Azerbaijan bears full responsibility for the ethnic cleansing in 1992.

Second, multinational international UN peacekeeping forces should be deployed along the entire border of the Republic of Artsakh, and a demilitarized zone should be created.

Third, the internationally recognized Lachine Corridor should be completely transferred to UN control and management.

Fourth, the territory of the Republic of Artsakh should be handed over to the UN control to ensure the conditions for the return of all refugees, formation of democratic and legal institutions and the restoration of the economy. All refugees must have equal status, equal rights and be subject to the common rules of the transitional period until a referendum is held to confirm the final political status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the result of which will be legally recognized by all states.

Fifth, the possibility of criminal prosecution by Azerbaijan of citizens of the Republic of Artsakh on any charges for the entire period of the conflict should be completely excluded. All arrested and already convicted Armenians in Azerbaijan must be released immediately. We are ready to recognize the competence of an international tribunal to investigate every war crime for which our citizens are accused, provided that in a similar way this tribunal will also address all war crimes committed by citizens of Azerbaijan and its mercenaries.

We are ready to do our best to contribute to achieving a peaceful resolution to the conflict, which will be based on the full respect for the right to self-determination and other internationally recognized human rights and freedoms of peoples.

Opposition MP: Pashinyan’s all opponents held in Baku prison

Panorama, Armenia
Dec 11 2023

Arayik Harutyunyan was not forced to resign as Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) president before being replaced by Samvel Shahramanyan, Armenian opposition MP Artur Khachatryan insisted on Monday.
Harutyunyan and several other former Artsakh leaders were detained by Azerbaijan following its violent seizure of Artsakh in mid-September.

“It’s yet to be revealed how the change of power took place in Artsakh,” the MP from the opposition Hayastan faction told reporters.

Khachatryan recalled that Shahramanyan and the Artsakh parliament majority were members of Harutyunyan’s Free Homeland Party.

“Are the [Armenian] authorities saying that they refused to intervene to stop the massacre in Artsakh because they disapproved Arayik Harutyunyan’s resignation? Are they trying to use it to justify their inaction?” the deputy asked.

“Arayik Harutyunyan’s imprisonment in Baku is also conditioned by the fact that he knows and can tell much more than the incumbent authorities would like to hear. It’s also about the other presidents. All political opponents of [PM Nikol] Pashinyan are being held in prison in Azerbaijan. This is probably the result of some kind of agreement between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaderships," Khachatryan charged.

Armenian cultural heritage sites tokenized on Solana blockchain

Coin Telegraph
Dec 8 2023

The initiative “Realm of Historia” is on a mission to tokenize historical sites in Armenia and around the world using the blockchain to preserve cultural heritage for future generations.

The Realm of Historia project recently announced its intentions to make strides in preserving Armenian cultural heritage through leveraging the use of blockchain technology and nonfungible tokens (NFTs).

In a departure from conventional methods, this initiative seeks to digitize historical artifacts and physical historical sites, starting with the Realm of Historia: Carahunge X digital asset collection.

Cointelegraph spoke with the two creators of Realm of Historia, Ivan Grantovsky and Ivan Krylov, about how emerging technologies can preserve culture and connect new generations with history.

At the core of Realm of Historia’s effort is the Solana blockchain, which the two developers said was chosen for efficiency and transparency purposes. 

Krylov said part of the inspiration for creating a platform is the lack of engaging platforms that digitally present cultural heritage and are transparent with how to participate philanthropically.

“This is the part for technology to solve this problem. The technology we’re talking about is the blockchain because it provides a solution for the lack of transparency.”

The Realm of Historia: Carahunge X collection aims to digitize the tangible essence of the Carahunge site, known as the Stonehenge of Armenia, which dates back to 5487 BC. All the NFTs in the collection combine art and digital versions of the stones from the physical site. 

In addition to digitizing pieces of cultural heritage, the project also aims to support local artists in Armenia and has collaborations with entities like the Yerevan Biennial Art Foundation (YBAF), A1 Art Space and Latitude Art Space. 

The founders of Realm of Historia said they see this project playing a pivotal role in bridging cultural divides, empowering local artists and showcasing Armenia’s cultural richness through emerging tech.

“The most important thing is that our projects are about the real-life impact, that you do something digitally and it impacts the real world.”

Related: How generative AI allows one architect to reimagine ancient cities

The project has a physical-digital aspect in the form of a QR code accompanying each NFT that can be scanned and redeemed in local cafes, museums and other sites in Armenia that have partnered with the project, they said.

“You’re not only helping the world and cultural preservation, but you’re a part of a community.”

This initiative aligns with a broader global trend recognizing blockchain’s potential in cultural heritage preservation. The decentralized and transparent nature of blockchain ensures a reliable record of historical assets, guaranteeing their unaltered accessibility for future generations.

In a similar project in Ukraine, a local art museum used blockchain digitization and NFTs to document and preserve art and cultural heritage during wartime.

More recently, The Sandbox Web3 metaverse platform collaborated with the British Museum to bring art and history to the metaverse in physical-digital experiences.

The team behind Realm of Historia also plans to build “The Atrium” or a “virtual museum hall” where users can enter a 3D lobby dedicated to cultural heritage and the sites represented by the project. 

“You can say, the digital ark for cultural heritage. The Atrium is aimed to draw the attention of the younger generation.”

In 2022, the island of Tuvalu, which is rapidly sinking into the sea, announced similar plans to build a digital version of itself to preserve its history as it faces erasure due to climate change.

The Realm of Historia founders said their goal is to eventually go beyond Armenia and build collections “everywhere we can all over the world.” They said they’re in talks about potential preservation projects in Malta, Italy, Cambodia and Georgia.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/armenian-cultural-heritage-sites-get-tokenized-on-solana-blockchain

ALSO READ 

Joint statement of the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia

eureporter
Dec 8 2023

Baku, December 7, AZERTAC

The Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia have released a joint statement.

AZERTAC presents the statement: “The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region. Two countries reconfirm their intention to normalize relations and to reach a peace treaty based on respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Following the talks between the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, an agreement has been reached on taking tangible steps towards building confidence between two countries.

Driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Azerbaijan releases 32 Armenian military servicemen.

In its turn, driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Armenia releases 2 Azerbaijani military servicemen.

As a sign of good gesture, the Republic of Armenia supports the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, by withdrawing its own candidacy. The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan do hope that the other countries within the Eastern European Group will also support Azerbaijan’s bid to host. As a sign of good gesture, the Republic of Azerbaijan supports the Armenian candidature for Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership.

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan will continue their discussions regarding the implementation of more confidence building measures, effective in the near future and call on the international community to support their efforts that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries and will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.”

https://www.eureporter.co/world/karabakh/2023/12/08/joint-statement-of-the-presidential-administration-of-the-republic-of-azerbaijan-and-the-office-of-the-prime-minister-of-the-republic-of-armenia/#google_vignette

Armenia and Azerbaijan make joint statement announcing ‘confidence-building measures’

Dec 8 2023
 8 December 2023

Azerbaijan and Armenia have announced a prisoner exchange and several other measures intended to ‘build confidence’ in a move hailed as a stepping stone to a potential peace deal.

In a joint statement on Thursday, Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration and Armenia’s Prime Minister’s Office suggested that there was ‘a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region’.

According to the Azerbaijani side, the agreement was reached without the involvement of any third country. Since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, negotiations between the two countries have been mediated by either the EU and the US or by Russia. Prior to that, talks were mostly held under the multinational Minsk Group.

The announcement may mark the first time in the two countries’ post-independence history that Yerevan and Baku have reached an agreement without external mediation.

European Council President Charles Michel wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that he was ‘delighted to welcome a major breakthrough’ in Armenia-Azerbaijani relations, particularly the ‘unprecedented opening’ of political dialogue.  

‘I now encourage the leaders to finalise the [Armenia-Azerbaijan] peace deal ASAP’, wrote Michel. 

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller also welcomed the announcement, calling it ‘an important confidence-building measure’. 

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‘We commend Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan for their joint efforts to lay the groundwork for a more peaceful and prosperous future for the people of the South Caucasus’, wrote Miller. 

The announcement came shortly after James O’Brien, the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, visited Baku, where he met with Azerbaijan’s president. Earlier on Thursday, Aliyev announced that presidential elections would take place a year early.

O’Brien stated after his visit that the US would host peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s foreign ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov respectively, in Washington.

Mirzoyan affirmed on 8 December that he was ready to meet with Bayramov in Washington, but Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has not yet responded to the invitation.

On Friday, the chair of Armenia’s parliamentary foreign relations committee stated that the exchange of prisoners would take place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in ‘a matter of hours or days’. 

Khandanyan also added that bilateral negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan had begun in ‘the last weeks’. 

‘We are talking about a short period of time’, said Khandanyan. 

The two countries agreed to exchange a total of 34 prisoners, 32 Armenians and two Azerbaijanis. Most of the Armenians were soldiers captured during clashes near Hadrut in December 2020, with six others captured at various times along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. 

According to a separate Azerbaijani statement, all had already served the majority of their sentences. They also emphasised that the list did not include detained officials from Nagorno-Karabakh, including former State Minister Ruben Vardanyan and former president Arayik Haratunyan. ‘Crucially, the released individuals do not and cannot include leaders of the so-called regime who committed war crimes and outrage on humanity against the Azerbaijani people’, they said.

They also emphasised that the list did not include Vagif Khachatryan, who was detained at the Lachin checkpoint earlier this year, and Alyosha Khosrovyan, who was captured during the 2020 war. Khachatryan is accused of participating in the 1992 Khojaly massacre, while Khosrovyan is accused of torturing Azerbaijani soldiers captured in 1992–1994.

The two Azerbaijani soldiers released were detained in April after crossing into Armenian territory. One was later charged with murdering a security guard at the Zangezur copper-molybdenum mine in Syunik Province, sentenced first to 20 years and then to lifetime imprisonment.

The shared statement also noted that Armenia had, as a gesture of goodwill, supported Azerbaijan’s bid to host the 29th session of the UN Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP29) by withdrawing its own candidacy, while Azerbaijan had supported Armenia’s candidature for Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership. 

The Armenian and Azerbaijani courts had released verdicts for two of the prisoners shortly before the exchange was announced.

On Wednesday, the sentence of Azerbaijani soldier Huseyn Akhundov, accused of murdering a security guard after entering Armenia in April, was extended from 20 years to life imprisonment after an appeal by the security guard’s family.

The following day, Gagik Voskanyan, an Armenian reservist captured near the Armenian town of Jermuk in 2023, was sentenced to 18 years in prison in Azerbaijan on a number of charges, including terrorism.

Armenian prisoners were last released by Azerbaijan in October 2022, through US mediation.


Armenia, Azerbaijan Announce Steps Towards Normalising Relations, Prisoner Exchange

Arise TV
Dec 8 2023

This exchange is seen as a positive step towards building trust and fostering peace between the two nations.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared their intention to move towards normalising relations and exchange prisoners captured during the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. The joint statement released on Thursday night expressed a shared belief in a “historical chance” for achieving “long-awaited peace,” marking a potential turning point in their decades-long conflict over the disputed territory.

In a bid to solidify their commitment to the peace process, both countries expressed their hope to sign a comprehensive peace treaty by the end of the year. The conflict escalated in September when Azerbaijan launched a rapid military offensive, ending three decades of ethnic Armenian rule in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory. The offensive resulted in the displacement of most of the region’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians to neighbouring Armenia.

As a gesture of goodwill, Azerbaijan is set to release 32 Armenian military servicemen, while Armenia will release two military servicemen. This exchange is seen as a positive step towards building trust and fostering peace between the two nations. European Council President Charles Michel praised the joint statement, calling it a “major breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations,” and the U.S. welcomed it as an “important confidence-building measure.”

In addition to the prisoner exchange, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced their commitment to signing a comprehensive peace treaty, emphasising mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity. Other significant measures include Armenia’s withdrawal of its candidacy for hosting the COP29 climate summit in support of Azerbaijan’s bid, and Azerbaijan’s support for Armenia’s candidacy in a regional group associated with climate talks. The countries also called on the international community to support their efforts for lasting peace.

The breakthrough was achieved during talks between Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s office and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev’s administration. These talks, mediated by the EU, the U.S., and Russia, have been ongoing, with both leaders meeting on multiple occasions to facilitate normalisation. Talks had faced a setback when Azerbaijan refused to participate in discussions in the U.S. and Spain, citing perceived bias. However, negotiations resumed in Iran at the end of October, leading to this recent positive development.

Kiki Garba

Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to prisoner exchange, work toward peace treaty

UPI
Dec 8 2023
By Darryl Coote

Dec. 8 (UPI) — Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to exchange prisoners as they recommit to normalizing relations with intentions of reaching a peace treaty, their two governments said.

The announcement comes months after Azerbaijan violently seized the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenia in a resumption of fighting that threatened to restart the deadly war of 2020.

A joint statement Thursday from the Office of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and the Office of President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan states that following talks between the Caucasian nations, they have agreed to take "tangible" confidence-building steps, including the exchange of prisoners.

The countries said that "driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill" Azerbaijan will release 32 Armenian military servicemen and Armenia will release two Azerbaijani soldiers.

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"The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region," the statement said.

"[The] two countries reconfirm their intention to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity."

In another gesture of goodwill, Armenia said it will also support Azerbaijan's bid to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties, better known as the COP29 United Nations climate change conference, by withdrawing its own candidacy.

And in turn, Azerbaijan said it will support the Armenia's candidacy for Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership.

The development was welcomed by the United States, which commended Aliyev and Pashinyan in for their efforts "to lay the groundwork for a more peaceful and prosperous future for the people of the south Caucasus," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.

Charles Michel, the European Union's top diplomat, said he was "delighted" to welcome the "major breakthrough" in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

"Establishing and deepening bilateral dialogue between sides has been a key objective of the [EU]-led Brussels process: today's progress is a key step," he said in a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter.

"I now encourage the leaders to finalize the [Armenia-Azerbaijan] peace deal ASAP."

EU Chief Michel Hails ‘Major Breakthrough’ In Armenia-Azerbaijan Relations

BARRON'S
Dec 8 2023
  • FROM AFP NEWS

EU chief Charles Michel on Thursday hailed a "major breakthrough" in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the arch-foe Caucasus neighbours agreed to exchange prisoners of war and work towards normalising ties.

"Delighted to welcome a major breakthrough" in relations, Michel wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "Welcome in particular release of detainees and unprecedented opening in political dialogue."

Welcoming the Release of Armenian and Azerbaijani Soldiers

U.S. Department of State
Dec 7 2023

The United States welcomes the announcement by Armenia and Azerbaijan of the release of two Azerbaijani and thirty-two Armenian detainees.  This commitment represents an important confidence building measure as the sides work to finalize a peace agreement and normalize relations.  We commend Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan for their joint efforts to lay the groundwork for a more peaceful and prosperous future for the people of the South Caucasus.

The United States will continue to strongly support efforts to reach a durable and dignified peace.


Armenia Under the Gun: Azerbaijan’s Territorial Ambitions Extend Beyond Nagorno-Karabakh

Foreign Affairs
Dec 8 2023

In late September, one of the most shocking human upheavals since the century began took place in the former Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a small, hilly patch of territory nestled within Azerbaijan. After three decades of tensions and conflict, it took just one day in September for Azerbaijan to seize the disputed enclave. Armenia stood largely on the sidelines, not strong enough to intervene, causing Nagorno-Karabakh’s population of some 120,000 ethnic Armenians to flee en masse in one of the starkest examples of forced displacement in the twenty-first century. And yet international attention soon drifted away from the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has faced no international consequences for its actions, a fact made all the more striking by the possibility of a new war in the region.

The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh did not resolve all the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These two neighbors have never established diplomatic ties and do not engage in trade, and their citizens cannot freely visit one another. Both countries have now raised three generations of people who view the other side as the enemy. Their shared borders are lined with miles of military positions, and their border skirmishes just in the past three years have resulted in more casualties than the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh over the same period.

Much is at stake. After more than a decade of rearmament and arms deals with Israel, Turkey, and other countries, Azerbaijan’s military is far more powerful than Armenia’s; it could within a matter of hours take control of swaths of Armenian territory. Its forces have already occupied a series of positions in southern Armenia. Observers fear that Azerbaijan might be preparing another offensive, with the goal of securing a route to its own exclave of Nakhichevan—a region of around 100,000 people that is separated from Azerbaijan by a sliver of Armenian territory. An aggressive Azerbaijani military action to establish this corridor could lead to the partition of Armenia, creating hundreds of thousands of new refugees in the process. With outside powers, including Armenia’s erstwhile ally Russia, preoccupied by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Armenia cannot count on external support.

The best way to avert another war is for international powers, including the United States and its Western allies, to pressure Armenia and Azerbaijan to return to the table and urgently resume peace talks, which last happened during the summer and have not occurred again owing to Azerbaijan’s refusal to attend new meetings. Issues concerning Nagorno-Karabakh—such as the return of its former residents—must be set aside in favor of settling several abiding disputes, notably over borders and the corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan. Western powers have tried to put pressure on Azerbaijan by signaling that its reluctance to return to talks may cost it bilateral trade deals and other planned projects. But it could simply decide that the battlefield is once again preferable to the negotiating table, flexing its superior military muscle in pursuit of its growing ambitions.

The conflict over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has flared periodically for around a century, but it became deadlier in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Armenia and Azerbaijan reemerged as independent states. Competing territorial claims and interethnic tensions led to the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s, which the Armenian side won decisively. Armenian troops took over not only Nagorno-Karabakh but also seven adjacent Azerbaijani regions. An uneasy truce held for a quarter of a century until 2020, when a six-week Azerbaijani offensive—known as the second Nagorno-Karabakh war—upended the status quo in the region. Aided by powerful new drones and artillery, Azerbaijan routed Armenian forces and retook most of the territories it had lost in the 1990s, although it stopped short of seizing all of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Fighting ended after Russia brokered a cease-fire deal and sent peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh, which remained home to around 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Moscow also sent military and security personnel to patrol the Armenian border with Azerbaijan.

But this arrangement was never stable. Soon after the cease-fire was reached, soldiers on both sides started establishing new military positions along the new line of contact and digging trenches. Azerbaijan, whose military decimated the Armenian army in 2020, poured further resources into its armed forces and provided its troops with more training and modern technology. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan had the advantage of lucrative oil and gas resources. It also benefited from its deepening ties with Turkey and Israel, both of which provided training and weapons to the Azerbaijani army. Armenia could not match these efforts. It was unable to replenish the weaponry and ammunition stocks it depleted in 2020 or to boost the morale of its beleaguered soldiers.

Azerbaijan’s military operation in September was swift and devastating.

Initially, Russia exerted some measure of control in the region through regular diplomatic contact with leaders in both countries. That changed in February 2022, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine and shifted its attention away from the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan quickly grasped that Moscow could no longer play a dominant role in the region. Over the course of several months in 2022, Azerbaijani troops took over territory not only inside Nagorno-Karabakh but also on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan. In December 2022, Azerbaijani forces started blocking the 40-mile Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. Without reliable access to food, medicine, and other goods, its population descended into humanitarian crisis, with some residents of the enclave succumbing to malnutrition. Entangled in Ukraine and eager to stay on good terms with Azerbaijan and its close partner Turkey, Russia did little to deter Azerbaijan’s aggression.

Since the spring and summer of 2022, the United States and the European Union have attempted to step into the breach. They had for decades cooperated with Russia to keep the situation in the South Caucasus stable, but relations between the Kremlin and the West broke down amid the Ukraine war. The West tried to facilitate talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan to head off further escalation, and the EU deployed a small civilian mission to patrol the frontline on the Armenian side of the formal border between these two countries in February 2023. This angered Moscow, which spoiled the Western-led efforts to arrange talks between Azerbaijani officials and the de facto local Armenian leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh. By stymying these talks, Moscow may have inadvertently facilitated the seizure of the enclave; Azerbaijan decided that arms, not talks, would change the facts on the ground.

Azerbaijan’s military operation in September in Nagorno-Karabakh was swift and devastating. Within a matter of hours, Azerbaijani soldiers had taken control of the main roads in the enclave and surrounded its capital, Stepanakert. Once local authorities had surrendered and a cease-fire was in place, rivers of cars filled with Armenians streamed out of the enclave on the single road toward Armenia. Over the following week, the entire population left, and Nagorno-Karabakh’s local leadership formally dissolved the self-proclaimed republic.

Tens of thousands of displaced people have spent the last two months in search of new homes in Armenia. Few of these refugees believe that the war is over. During my travels to these border areas in recent weeks, almost everyone I spoke with feared the breakout of a fresh war.

Armenia has every reason to be worried. A new conflict over the southern part of the country would in military terms closely resemble the recent Nagorno-Karabakh operation, but on a bigger scale and with the added significance of occurring on what is indisputably the sovereign territory of another state. It would take mere hours for Azerbaijani troops to seize much of Armenia’s critical infrastructure, particularly in the country’s southern regions, leading to the major displacement of civilians. Armenia could well have no alternative but to surrender and accept any terms proposed by Azerbaijan.

One area where Armenia is particularly vulnerable is near Jermuk, a once popular mountain spa resort. In September 2022, Azerbaijan made incursions along 120 miles of its border with Armenia, leaving its troops deep inside the neighboring country, including near Jermuk. Azerbaijani troops there have fortified their positions on the mountains overlooking an uninhabited gorge through which a road passes to Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhichevan. Military experts say that Azerbaijani troops would likely require just two days to traverse the gorge, a feat that could effectively sever the southern region of Armenia, known as Syunik, from the rest of the country.

Armenia fears this sword of Damocles dangling over its head. Since fighting flared last year, Armenia has been calling for the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from its territory and has advanced specific proposals to limit weaponry and increase the physical separation between armed forces stationed along the border. Armenia insisted that these measures would prevent the kinds of minor skirmishes that could quickly escalate into a full-blown war. But Azerbaijan, in a position of enormous relative strength, has not agreed to these sorts of measures. For over two years, the two countries have tried to discuss the demarcation of their joint border, both bilaterally and with the participation of Western officials. An agreement on the course of the border could in theory facilitate a withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from Armenian territory. But this ongoing process shows little promise of success. In late November, Armenian and Azerbaijani senior officials met again at their joint border. They discussed only the agenda and format of potential future talks, not the substance of the problem itself.

The peculiar geography of South Caucasus fuels these tensions. Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhichevan is separated from Azerbaijan by a narrow strip of southern Armenia. Azerbaijan has long demanded the creation of a special route through this territory to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave. It has advocated a route, which it calls the Zangezur corridor, that would run through Armenian territory near the border with Iran. Ultimately, that corridor would also give Azerbaijan greater access to Turkey, which borders Nakhichevan. The proposed route would go through about 25 miles of Armenian territory. In the final article of the Russian-brokered cease-fire deal in 2020, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia committed to establishing special controls along this route exercised by the Russian border guards. Armenia is now willing to allow unimpeded movement for Azerbaijani cargo and citizens, but it still is not ready to cede complete control of the route to Russia. For its part, Azerbaijan claims it is willing to discuss Armenian participation in passport and customs controls but still insists on special security protections, which in its view, has thus far been offered only by Russia.

Since the deal was first brokered, both local and foreign diplomats have considered this topic “low-hanging fruit” because the warring countries had an interest in making the agreement happen. Azerbaijan seeks an additional route through Nakhichevan to Turkey. This would help funnel economic support that could be used to reconstruct the regions near Nagorno-Karabakh that had been destroyed during three decades of Armenian control. For Armenia, the corridor can help end what it considers a blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey, both of which have kept their borders with Armenia closed because of the conflict. Russia and Turkey also have a stake in the project. Moscow wants an additional overland route to Turkey, a major trade partner—and one that has not joined Western sanctions during the Ukraine war. And in a speech at the UN General Assembly in September, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the opening of this corridor, which in theory would provide Turkey an additional trade connection to Central Asia and then China.

In the last three years, both Russia and the West have been attempting to proactively mediate talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a deal regarding the corridor. The parties came up with smart solutions for arranging joint passport and customs controls, and the EU even offered to invest in constructing a new railroad that would run through the Armenian section of the route. Azerbaijan remains concerned, however, about which entity, if not Russia, would guarantee the security of the route. After Russia failed to head off Azerbaijani attacks in September, Armenia distrusts Russia and does not want it to have any involvement in the operation of the corridor. Instead, Armenia now promotes a project that it calls a “Crossroad of Peace,” which promises a more peaceful and prosperous region if Azerbaijan drops its remaining demands and agrees to open its borders with Armenia.

Such posturing aside, an agreement regarding the corridor could be within reach because many of the technical issues appear to have been mostly resolved. But to make progress, both countries need to resume talks. Otherwise, the dispute will drag on, deepening frustration in Azerbaijan, as well as in Russia and Turkey, and potentially contributing to more tensions and even a new war.

If Armenia and Azerbaijan do not return to the negotiating table, a war grows ever more likely. Over more than 30 years of their conflict, these two countries have been close to sealing a deal many times. They failed on every occasion, leading to greater militarization of the region, increased tensions, new wars, and more circumscribed prospects for peace and development. The recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh and the exodus of the entire Armenian population from the enclave are tragic. But in the absence of a diplomatic solution to the remaining issues relating to border demarcation and the corridor, a new war could carve up Armenia.

Restarting talks will not be easy. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has already skipped two planned meetings with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan organized by the EU in October. The United States has recently put pressure on Azerbaijan to head back to the negotiating table, engaging more directly with Azerbaijani leaders and also signaling that Azerbaijan’s refusal to return to talks might have costs that Western states have previously refrained from imposing, including pausing bilateral cooperation projects or even placing travel bans on some Azerbaijani officials. So far, this approach has not yielded results. In late November, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had to call Aliyev to get his country to agree to the visits of U.S. envoys to the region. At the same time, Azerbaijani officials have advocated for talks with a different format and agenda purely on their country’s terms.

Even as the West remained at loggerheads with Russia over the war in Ukraine, Russian officials agreed to reopen lines of communication relating to the South Caucasus shortly before the September war in Nagorno-Karabakh, meeting with Western counterparts several times. These channels will not fundamentally change Russia’s confrontational attitude toward the West, but they could, at the very least, promote better mutual understanding and create some opportunities for risk management. Western officials should work to keep these channels open. 

Despite their failure to prevent the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the United States and the EU are still the only powers both willing and able to push negotiations forward. Their readiness to continue shuttle diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan is helpful, and the West should continue to try to bring Azerbaijan back to the negotiating table. The prospects for success in the Western-led process may now look small, but if Azerbaijan does not see any reason to return to the table, it may seek to advance its interests on the battlefield instead.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/armenia-under-gun