Month: November 2023

"Economic growth in Armenia is unstable": analysis of the situation and expert’s forecast

Aram Torosian
Nov 1 2023
  • JAMnews
  • Yerevan

On the problems of the Armenian economy

The Armenian government intends to achieve economic growth of 7% in 2024. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the macroeconomic stability observed in the country is the most important tool for managing challenges and capitalizing on opportunities.

According to economist Lilia Amirkhanyan, macroeconomic indicators do point to positive trends in the economy. But the factors driving this, she says, are external, and warns that without them Armenia’s economy will face serious problems.

  • The effect of “positive and negative shock” on Armenia’s economy. Opinion
  • “A blow to microbusiness in Armenia”: experts on the abolition of tax incentives
  • Construction boom in Yerevan, prohibitively high housing prices will remain for the time being

During the preliminary discussions on the state budget for 2024, the Prime Minister said that macroeconomic stability is one of Armenia’s most important achievements:

“We were able to maintain it during the war, internal political instability and the coronavirus pandemic. Armenia continues to maintain the level of high economic growth for the second year in a row.”

According to Pashinyan, macroeconomic stability was also facilitated by “a principled and systematic fight against corruption”.

About the latest developments – according to the stories of ordinary people. Also, an expert’s commentary on support for socially vulnerable segments of the population and uneven distribution of income

According to Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan, “the services sector will remain the driving force of Armenia’s economic growth, and consumption will remain the driving component.” He believes that the inflow of investments and exports will also contribute to growth.

When asked by MPs what Armenia’s economic growth will be like without the positive influence of external factors, the minister replied:

“Armenia’s economic growth potential is estimated at 5.5%. The scale of this potential depends on the investments, diversification of our economy and the reforms we are implementing. The main efforts of the government should be directed precisely at increasing this potential.”

Economist Hrant Mikaelyan agrees with agency experts that economic growth in Armenia is “indirectly linked” to the ongoing war in Ukraine

Economist Lilia Amirkhanyan says that all the factors that have been the drivers of Armenia’s economy over the past year and a half are still going, but are mainly external, largely due to the economic effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war, i.e. migrants and cash remittances.

The expert notes that two “cornerstone areas of the economy” – industry and agriculture – are significantly lagging behind the growth rate. She is alarmed that the agricultural sector continues to be at ground zero, while industry is recording a decline.

“The economic growth in trade, service, services and construction is steady. These sectors dominate both the GDP structure and the economic activity index.”

But the recorded economic growth is unstable and the cessation of external factors will cause major problems:

“We will face the problem of an economy with declining industry, agriculture and agrarian sector and exports. These problems already exist, but the indicators of other sectors so far give us the opportunity to cover the gap.”

As for the influx of Armenians who left NK for Armenia, the expert said they could become a “stimulus” for economic activity:

“If additional value is to be created as a result of increased state budget expenditures and return to the state budget, this is a natural phenomenon, not a negative one. The problem is the lack of institutional mechanisms and inefficiency, not only in the case of migrants from Artsakh, but also in the case of Russian migrants.”


https://jam-news.net/expert-on-the-problems-of-armenias-economy/

Why does Israel still dominate the news and not Nagorno-Karabakh?

David Nargizian
Nov 1 2023

01-11-2023

Opinion

Evert van Vlastuin, CNE.news

The Israeli representative at the UN in New York put on a yellow star last Monday. His photo was used all over the world, confirming the observation that the conflict between Israel and Hamas still dominates all the news. Why is that?

Early October, just before the terrorist attack on Israel, we shifted our focus to Nagorno-Karabakh. Something historic was going on there: the “ethnic cleansing” of Armenians from the region.

The conflict there has a spiritual element as well. You can view these events as Christians (Armenians) against Muslims (Azerbaijan). But why does it not come back as a central topic in the news? Why is it still Israel and Gaza?

These questions are not easy to answer.

Of course, the Armenians are of no less value than Israelis or Palestinians. And it is still difficult to understand that such events that took place in Nagorno-Karabakh recently can take place in our days.

Still, there is a difference between Nagorno-Karabakh and Israel. Israel is not a country like all others; it is unique. And therefore, it is called the Holy Land. What does that mean? You can give three perspectives on that:

The Middle East has been a challenging region, at least since the end of the Second World War. Since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, there has been unrest continuously. Of course, this has to do with the territorial issue: not only the Jews but also the Arabs want their state to be on the same soil.

Together with this, the West has many interests there. The UN’s partition plan from 1947 was one of the significant decisions of this new international body. The United Nations still feel committed to the Israel-Palestine problem (although the relationship between Israel and the UN has never been so bad as it is now).

Many leaders in Israel have strong relations with the Western world. Prime Minister Netanyahu, for instance, even lived in the USA. And the same applies to thousands of other Israelis. Western journalists always have somebody to talk to. The country is quite easily accessible to the media compared with Nagorno-Karabakh.

Another aspect of this horizontal perspective is this short word: oil. The Middle East is a region that is essential for the economic development of the rest of the world because of energy. From this standpoint, it is understandable that the media focus on the region’s stability. Take only the nuclear ambitions of Iran.

There is more between Israel and Palestine than the issue of land. It is religion. Most Arabs are Muslim, and many Jews are Judaistic. They have different visions, even colliding values. In most Muslim countries, anti-Semitism is extreme. It seems that Islam and Judaism cannot live along each other easily.

Especially in Jerusalem, this is a problem. The Jews are proud that they are back in the Old City, in which even King David lived. But for the Muslim nations in and around Israel, this is an offence. A Muslim is not allowed to give up land that was occupied by Islam once. It doesn’t surprise that they use power and even violence to get this land back again.

The West has been trained in a secular outlook. Especially Protestantism has taught there is no difference between the sacred and the profane; God creates both, and they are equally holy. This sometimes resulted in an indifference towards the Israel-Palestine issue. If all land is sacred –even the Sahara desert– why would I be concerned about the Temple Mountain? Of course, this has not helped to solve the problem.

For many, Israel is not only called the Holy Land but is Holy Land. And within the country, Jerusalem is the very location where heaven meets earth.

As an outsider, I have witnessed how European Jews visited the Western Wall. The nearer they came to the Wall, the more they were captured by emotions. For them, this place is very, very special.

Also, for Muslims, Jerusalem is a holy city. This is where the prophet Mohammed prayed and was taken to heaven. For them, it is difficult to share the holy place with the Jews.

But also, for Christians, Israel is a beloved country. For centuries and centuries, God only revealed Himself to the twelve Israelite tribes. Only after the resurrection of Christ and Pentecost (around the year AD 35) the Gospel went abroad “till the end of the earth”. But still, no land was as blessed with God’s interference as this soil. It is self-evident that people with an interest in the Bible also have an interest in the land of the Bible. This is the place where it all happened. Many places in the world are historic, but this place is central in salvation history!

But after 1948, many Protestants –especially Evangelicals– have taken on a position that sometimes is similar to the Jewish and Muslim one, in that sense that Jerusalem has a vertical dimension that London, Paris and Moscow do not have.

In the past, Roman Catholics had this idea about the Vatican. We read that Martin Luther had strong expectations when he went to Rome in 1510; he would see a holiness that he had never seen before – and he returned very disappointed.

The same vertical dimension we see in Mecca, where the Muslims think the Black Stone from the Kaaba has fallen out of heaven. This stone gives a material connection between the earth and the spiritual world.

Does Jerusalem indeed have that vertical element? Well, as a staunch Calvinist, it would be difficult for me to say that. I don’t believe the Bible teaches that there is less sin in Jerusalem than in my hometown. Neither is there more holiness.

On the other hand, I believe that God still has a plan with the Jews, the chosen people. Few ancient nations have survived the centuries until the present day, but the Jews did. Why? I think that God has a unique goal with that, to glorify Himself and to bring the Israelites to Christ (see Romans 11,26).

Some have said recently that anti-Semitism is not just hatred against men but hatred against God. I believe this is true. Satan does not want this spiritual change among the Israelites.

Of course, this has nothing to do with politics and the Middle East. But it might be so that God brought (half of) His people back to their old house for a particular purpose.

I use the word “house” deliberately. The State of Israel is an earthly house for a special people. It is not helpful to put this state on a unique level, different from other states. But for the Jewish nation, yes, I think the Bible teaches that we can expect something of God for them.

Back to the first question: why so much publicity for Israel? I have given some considerations that could help.

It seems wise to me first to consider horizontal aspects. I believe that God works in horizontal things as well. If we don’t think of Him, He thinks about us. And there are plenty of reasons why the Middle East gets more continuous attention from the media than other regions.

And at the end, there remains a riddle. Or a secret. Only God knows that.

In my church tradition, they sometimes make the comparison with an embroidery: we only see the back of the stitching, a bit rough and full of loose ends. But God guides the history according to His plan – don’t be afraid.

https://cne.news/article/3822-everts-comment-why-does-israel-still-dominate-the-news-and-not-nagorno-karabakh

Armenia’s Pashinyan lists three agreed principles for settlement with Azerbaijan

Elizabeth Jabejian
TASS, Russia
Oct 30 2023
"If the sides observe these principles, the signing of a peace treaty will become a reality," Nikol Pashinyan said

YEREVAN, October 30. /TASS/. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that it is necessary for the sides to observe three basic principles of settlement in order to reach a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

"Three basic principles have been agreed upon that can contribute to peace and regulation of relations with Baku. And if the sides observe these principles, the signing of a peace treaty will become a reality," Pashinyan said in Yerevan at a parliamentary hearing on the 2024 budget.

The Armenian leader enumerated these principles. The first is formal recognition by both countries of each other's territorial integrity, given a sovereign territory of 29,800 square kilometers for Armenia and 86,600 square kilometers for Azerbaijan. The second principle is that the 1991 Almaty Declaration should become the political basis for the delimitation and further demarcation of the international border. The third principle is the opening of all regional communications lines and other utilities on the basis of mutual respect for the two countries’ respective sovereignty, jurisdiction and legislation, Pashinyan concluded.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are negotiating a peace treaty. One of the main obstacles is the issue of demarcation of the common section of the border. Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have held several face-to-face meetings mediated by Russia and the EU. Another issue discussed by the sides is the opening of regional communications. Yerevan insists that the principle of maintaining the jurisdiction of the countries through whose territory such communications pass should be applied.

In late October, Pashinyan said that he expected an agreement on peace and normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku to be signed within a few months.

Hamo Beknazarian’s 1928 Khaspush to be screened in New York’s Museum of Modern Art

Toneyan Mark

 10:43, 1 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 1, ARMENPRESS. The 1928 drama Khaspush by Hamo Beknazarian, the founder of Armenian cinema, will be screened in New York’s Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) on November 3 and 13.

The National Cinema Center of Armenia has provided the 35mm print of the film for the screening.

Khaspush is the second Armenian film to be screened in MoMa after Sergey Parajanov’s 1967 Hakob Hovnatanyan in 2021.

Armenpress: Armenian Church holds meeting of Supreme Spiritual Council

Emil Karabekian

 10:07, 1 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 1, ARMENPRESS. The meeting of the Supreme Spiritual Council of the Armenian Apostolic Church began on October 31 in the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin.

The assembly is chaired by Catholicos Karekin II and will be held for four days.

In a press release, the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin said that issues pertaining to the post-war challenges facing Armenia and the issues of the forcibly displaced Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will be discussed during the assembly. The clergy will also discuss issues related to the preservation of the spiritual-cultural heritage of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the spiritual, educational and social mission of the Church.

RFE/RL Armenian Service – 11/01/2023

Jack Hunanian 
                                        Wednesday, November 1, 2023


More Armenians Jailed After Anti-Government Protests

        • Naira Bulghadarian

Armenia - Riot police arrest an anti-government protester in Yerevan, September 
22, 2023.


Four more participants of recent anti-government protests in Yerevan, including 
a 16-year-old boy, have been arrested on what their lawyers and the Armenian 
opposition call politically motivated charges.

The largely peaceful protests erupted spontaneously shortly after the 
Azerbaijani army went on the offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, 
paving the way for the restoration of Baku’s full control over the 
Armenian-populated territory. They demanded that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian 
resign because of his failure to prevent the fall of Karabakh. Some 
demonstrators clashed with security forces outside the main government building 
in Yerevan.

Opposition groups swiftly took over and stepped up the daily protests in the 
following days in an attempt to topple Pashinian. Their “civil disobedience” 
campaign fizzled out later in September.

Riot police detained hundreds of people during the demonstrations. The majority 
of them were set free after spending several hours in police custody.

At least 48 protesters, many of them university students, were charged with 
participating in “mass disturbances.” As of mid-October, 31 of them remained 
under arrest pending investigation.

Armenia -- Armenians take part in an anti-government protest in central Yerevan 
on September 24, 2023.

The fresh arrests were made over the weekend. All four men are natives of 
Nagorno-Karabakh facing the same charges. They include the 16-year-old Samvel 
Mirzoyan, who is suffering, according to his lawyer, from a heart problem.

The lawyer, Abgar Poghosian, said on Wednesday, said a Yerevan court cited 
witness tampering concerns when it remanded Mirzoyan in pre-trial custody. 
Poghosian laughed off that explanation, saying that police officers are the only 
witnesses in the case and that his teenage client could simply not influence 
their testimony.

“There is no doubt that this is a politically motivated case,” Poghosian told 
RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.

“They want to arrest as many people as possible and thus create an atmosphere of 
fear,” he said, echoing the Armenian opposition’s assessments of the arrests.

Opposition leaders have described the arrested protesters as political prisoners 
and demanded their immediate release. Two of them visited the latest detainees 
in custody.

Armenia -- A protester waves the Karabakh flag as riot police officers guard the 
Armenian government building in Yerevan, September 2, 2023.

Some human rights activists have also expressed concern over the mass arrests. 
One of them, Zaruhi Hovannisian, believes that the Armenian authorities’ 
reluctance to place the indicted protesters under house arrest testifies to the 
political character of these cases.

The Investigative Committee, which is in charge of the cases, denies any 
political motives behind them, saying that the detainees assaulted police 
officers and threw rocks and other objects at the government building.

Among the detainees is Tatev Virabian, a Karabakh-born mother of two who is 
prosecuted for not only allegedly hurling a bottle of water but also her 
Facebook post construed by the law-enforcement agency as a call for violent 
regime change. She strongly denies the accusations.

Virabian’s lawyer, Arsen Babayan, expressed concern about the young woman’s 
health, saying that she recently fainted in her prison cell.




Russia ‘Rotating Troops’ In Depopulated Karabakh


Nagorno-Karabakh - Russian peacekeepers stand next to an armored vehicle at the 
checkpoint outside Stepanakert, October 7, 2023.


The Russian military has said that it has rotated its peacekeeping forces in 
Nagorno-Karabakh and sent their weaponry to Russia “for planned repairs” after 
the mass exodus of the region’s ethnic Armenian population.

Karabakh’s depopulation resulting from Azerbaijan’s September 19-20 military 
offensive called into question the continued presence of 2,000 or so Russian 
peacekeepers deployed there following the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war. Over 
the past month they have dismantled most of their observation posts along the 
Karabakh “line of contact” that existed until the assault.

“The rotation of the peacekeeping contingent’s personnel as well as the sending 
of weapons and military equipment to the Russian Federation for planned repairs 
is being completed,” read a statement released by Russia’s Defense Ministry late 
on Tuesday.

It said the contingent keeps cooperating with Baku on “preventing bloodshed, 
ensuring security and observing humanitarian law in relation to the civilian 
population.” Only several dozen ethnic Armenians are thought to remain in 
Karabakh.

A senior Russian diplomat said on October 9 that despite the exodus, condemned 
by Armenia as “ethnic cleansing,” the peacekeepers should remain in the region 
because their mission “will also be necessary in the future.” Russian President 
Vladimir Putin and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev discussed the issue 
when they met in Kyrgyzstan four days later. They announced no agreements on the 
future of the Russian presence in Karabakh.

Armenian leaders have denounced the Russians for their failure to prevent, stop 
or even condemn the Azerbaijani military operation. Prime Minister Nikol 
Pashinian insisted last week that they were “unable or unwilling to ensure the 
security of the Karabakh Armenians.”

Moscow has rejected the criticism. It has also bristled at European Union leader 
Charles Michel’s recent assertion that “Russia has betrayed the Armenian 
population” of Karabakh.




More Karabakh Captives Identified

        • Ruzanna Stepanian

Nagorno-Karabakh - A view through a car window shows abandoned vehicles in 
Stepanakert an Azeri military operation and mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from 
the region, October 2, 2023.


Azerbaijan detained not only eight current and former leaders of 
Nagorno-Karabakh but also at least as many other Karabakh Armenians following 
its September 19-20 military offensive, a senior Armenian law-enforcement 
official said on Wednesday.

“There are also captives who are not high-ranking officials. The capture of 
those individuals has been confirmed,” Argishti Kyaramian, the head of Armenia’s 
Investigative Committee, told reporters.

Kyaramian did not identify any of those captives. RFE/RL’s Armenian Service 
found out about one of them, Melikset Pashayan, last week.

Pashayan lived in the Karabakh village of Sznek. According to his relatives, he 
went missing while trying to help evacuate elderly and sick people unable to 
flee the village on their own. Pashayan’s wife said he subsequently phoned her 
from Baku and said he is in Azerbaijani custody.

Karabakh’s three former presidents -- Arayik Harutiunian, Bako Sahakian and 
Arkadi Ghukasian -- as well as current parliament speaker Davit Ishkhanian were 
taken to Baku to face grave criminal charges in late September. Their detentions 
followed the mass exodus of Karabakh’s residents that left the enclave almost 
fully depopulated.

Karabakh’s former premier Ruben Vardanyan, former Foreign Minister Davit 
Babayan, former army commander Levon Mnatsakanian and his ex-deputy Davit 
Manukian were arrested by Azerbaijani security forces last week while trying to 
enter Armenia through the Lachin corridor.

The Armenian government strongly condemned the arrests and urged the 
international community to help it secure the release of the Karabakh leaders. 
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry rejected the criticism, saying that they will 
go on trial for promoting separatism, organizing “terrorist acts” and 
participating in “aggression against Azerbaijan.”

Baku has so far acknowledged only nine Karabakh detainees. Kyaramian insisted 
that their confirmed number stands at 16.

The figure does not include 30 Karabakh soldiers and 12 civilians who 
Kyaramian’s law-enforcement agency says went missing during the Azerbaijani 
assault and remain unaccounted for.




Yerevan Says Keen To Allay Russian Concerns Over International Court Treaty

        • Siranuysh Gevorgian

Armenia - The building of the Armenian Foreign Ministry in Yerevan.


Armenia has again offered to sign an agreement with Russia to address Moscow’s 
concerns about Yerevan’s recent acceptance of jurisdiction of an international 
court that issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in 
March.

Despite stern warnings from the Russian leadership, the Armenian parliament 
ratified on October 3 the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court 
(ICC) known as the Rome Statute. The move initiated by Prime Minister Nikol 
Pashinian and condemned by Moscow added to unprecedented tensions between the 
two states.

Russian officials said it will cause serious damage to Russian-Armenian 
relations. They dismissed Yerevan’s assurances that the ratification does not 
commit it to arresting Putin and handing him over to the ICC in the event of his 
visit to Armenia.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said on October 9 that Moscow 
presented the Armenian government with “certain proposals” on the issue. He 
suggested that Yerevan is “either still thinking about them or has decided to 
reject them.”

In a statement to RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, the Armenian Foreign Ministry said 
on Wednesday that Yerevan has responded to those proposals. But it did not 
disclose them.

“In the context of proposals conveyed by the Russian side regarding the process 
of ratification of the Rome Statute by Armenia, the Armenian side came up with a 
proposal to conclude a corresponding bilateral agreement which can dispel the 
concerns of the Russian Federation,” the ministry said, adding that it has not 
received an “official written response” from Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed on October 3 the proposed bilateral 
treaty related to the ICC. He said it is not clear how Yerevan can “put in place 
special conditions, exceptions.”

For his part, Putin said on October 13 that the ratification of the ICC treaty 
will not stop him from visiting Armenia again in the future and that he and 
Pashinian “remain in touch.” The tensions between the two longtime allies have 
not eased since then.



Reposted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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Building sustainable peace in South Caucasus is one of key objectives of EU – Ambassador Maragos

Mike Maghakian

 13:01, 1 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 1, ARMENPRESS. Building sustainable peace in South Caucasus is one of the EU’s key objectives, Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Armenia Ambassador Vassilis Maragos has said.

In his speech during the opening of the EUMA headquarters in Yeghegnadzor, Ambassador Maragos recalled that during the European Political Community summit in Granada the EU reiterated its condemnation of Azerbaijan’s military operation against the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and stressed the need for respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. “We remain committed to these efforts," Maragos said.

The humanitarian needs of more than 100,000 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, who’ve found shelter in Armenia, are in the EU's focus, he said.

Ambassador Maragos said that Armenia and the EU are determined to strengthen their relations by working in the direction of fully utilizing the potential of CEPA and the EU Economic and Investments Plan.

"Building sustainable peace in South Caucasus is one of the EU’s key objectives," Ambassador Maragos said.

EUMA expansion to be discussed in Brussels by year-end

Kajoyan Gevork

 14:44, 1 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 1, ARMENPRESS. The issue of expanding the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) will be discussed in Brussels by year-end, EUMA Head of Mission Markus Ritter has said.

EUMA now includes representatives of 23 countries of the EU.

Ritter told reporters on November 1 that there is a possibility that representatives of all 27 countries will be included in EUMA. He said that there is “a lot of political attention” towards EUMA because of the developments taking place.

"The enlargement is something that also will be discussed in Brussels by the end of the year. We have to wait for the results. But, as it has been said before, at the moment because of the events here in autumn this mission has a lot of political attention," he said.

Last week, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly visited Armenia and announced that Canada will join EUMA, becoming the first country outside the EU to do so.

Ritter said that if other non-EU countries also express desire to join EUMA, then the issue will be discussed in Brussels.