Month: November 2023

Iran, Armenia discuss ways of expanding customs co-op

Edgar Tavakalian
 TEHRAN TIMES 
Iran – Oct 31, 2023
  1. Economy
– 16:24

TEHRAN – The deputy head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration met with his Armenian counterpart in Moscow, on Monday, to discuss boosting cooperation in borders, IRNA reported.

During the talks, which were held on the sidelines of the annual International Customs Forum, the two sides discussed measures to increase the acceptance of trucks importing and exporting commodities and to promote transit on the joint border crossings.

Exchanging information electronically and developing the area of customs in the borders were also among the topics agreed upon by the officials.

The two officials also exchanged views about the acceleration and facilitation of trade affairs between Tehran and Yerevan.

After the talks, the two sides also agreed to hold expert meetings continuously to pursue the implementation of agreements.

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https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/490792/Iran-Armenia-discuss-ways-of-expanding-customs-co-op

Tehran, Yerevan ink MOU on labor exchange, technical training co-op

Suren Karakhanian
 TEHRAN TIMES 
Iran – Oct 31, 2023
  1. Economy
– 16:25

TEHRAN – Iran and Armenia have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to cooperate in the fields of labor exchange, technical and professional training, as well as, welfare and empowerment of the disabled, IRNA reported.

The MOU, signed by Iranian Labor and Social Welfare Minister Solat Mortazavi and his Armenian counterpart Narek Mkrtchyan in Tehran on Tuesday, also covers economic cooperation between the two countries in the fields of petrochemicals, road and construction materials, and medicine.

Speaking in the signing ceremony, Mortazavi said: “Iran is fully prepared to send labor to Armenia while establishing technical and vocational training centers in the country, and transferring experiences to empower the disabled and war victims.”

Pointing to the increase in the economic exchanges between the two countries, the Iranian official said: “Economic exchanges between Iran and Armenia have increased slightly and reached 700 million dollars, but we should aim for three billion dollars in trade between the two countries and plan to achieve this goal.”

“We are ready to develop trade and commerce with Armenia in order to achieve the three-billion-dollar [annual trade] goal. Our economic experts believe that in the first step, we can export strategic items and products that suit the Armenian market’s needs to the country,” he added.

Mkrtchyan for his part praised Iran’s interest in boosting trade ties with Armenia, saying: “In the few days that we have been in Iran, we established paths of cooperation more than expected, and this is a source of satisfaction.”

“I am sure that by signing this memorandum, we can move things forward and implement the MOU as soon as possible. I am sure that we will make the arrangements so that the Iranian workforce will find Armenia like their home when they enter the country,” he said.

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Iran, Armenia Initiate Joint Cooperation in ‘Skill Diplomacy’

George Mamian
TASNIM News Agency
Iran – Oct 31, 2023

October, 31, 2023 – 10:15 Economy news

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Officials from Iran and Armenia launched joint cooperation in the field of “Skill Diplomacy”.

In a joint meeting held between Minister of Labor and Social Affairs of the Republic of Armenia Narek Mkrtchyan and Iran’s Deputy Minister of Labor, Cooperatives and Social Welfare Mehrdad Azimi in Karaj on Tuesday, the two sides emphasized the need for strengthening cooperation in the field of ‘skill diplomacy’.

Presently, many developed countries are seeking to acquire and present training and internship courses aimed at training skilled workers and meeting the demand for the required manpower in their market, the head of Iran Technical and Vocational Training Organization (TVTO) said.

In recent years, Iran has tried to provide efficient and competent manpower by relying on skill training, he said, adding, “In this regard, job seekers and the graduates have been hired within the framework of skill training courses”

However, implementation of the National Skill Movement has been put on the agenda of the ministry, Azimi stared.

During the meeting, the two sides emphasized the need for developing bilateral cooperation in the field of presenting skill training commensurate with the requirements of the country’s labor market.

In addition, they stressed the need to establish a specialized technical and vocational training center and use the capacity of the public sector to hold a bilateral festival to introduce the skills of trainees to the economic enterprises, etc.

Iran’s deputy labor minister further termed the visit of the Armenian labor minister to Iran as a turning point in developing and expanding relations between the two countries.

Armenia’s labor minister, for his part, said that the diversity of Iran's services and skill capacities is the main reason for his country's keenness to expand cooperation with Iran.

Armenia is seeking to launch a technical and vocational training center in Syunik province, located in southern part of Armenia, Mkrtchyan said, adding that Iran’s TVTO is equipped with the valuable experiences that can help Armenia to settle problems in the field of skill training.

Canada ambassador about sanctions on Azerbaijan: There is also dispute within Armenia regarding them

Emil Lazarian
News.am, Armenia
Oct 31 2023

Canada's ministry of foreign affairs is closely following the events in Nagorno-Karabakh, and is concerned about the dramatic deterioration of the humanitarian situation as a result of last year's events. Andrew Turner, the first resident ambassador of Canada to Armenia, said this in his opening remarks at the discussion on border security between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the foreign affairs and international development committee of the Canadian House of Commons.

Canada has joined the Armenian government's call for help. Canada has announced a total of $3.9 million in humanitarian aid to support refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh through humanitarian organizations, Turner said.

Canada has consistently called for non-use of force, and has called on all parties to participate in negotiations to reach a comprehensive peace agreement. Canada supports the principles of non-use of force, the territorial integrity of both countries, and the right to self-determination. The peace agreement must now also guarantee the displaced population's right to return to Nagorno-Karabakh and respect for their property and rights, the ambassador added.

MP Stephane Bergeron asked Turner a question about the possibility of imposing sanctions on Azerbaijan, to which the ambassador quoted Canadian FM Melanie Joly's words that the matter of sanctions is on the table.

If necessary, they will be imposed, but we avoid it and try to solve the problem diplomatically. Furthermore, we are making preparations for Canada to become the first non-EU country to participate in a monitoring mission to see what is happening at the border. We are also working with our allies to convey our message clearly to Baku, that territorial integrity must be respected, Turner added.

Responding to the ambassador, Bergeron noted that Canada imposed sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and in 2021, Azerbaijan invaded and occupied a part of the sovereign territory of Armenia.

Since the conflict has been going on for more than 30 years, there is no clear information about the borders of the two countries, so we expect that such issues will be resolved through a peace agreement, including the preservation of homes and cultural treasures. Canada supports these efforts, Ambassador Turner responded.

MP Heather McPherson asked the ambassador in which case the sanctions will be considered more seriously.

According to the ambassador, negotiations on sanctions with the allies are already underway, but as long as the Armenian government has the impression that the peace process can be moved forward, Canada would not want to take any steps to hinder those efforts.

MP Sameer Zuberi asked the ambassador whether Armenia petitioned with a request to impose sanctions against Azerbaijan.

No, responded Turner, and noted that there is a dispute within Armenia at the moment regarding the application of sanctions. There have been calls for support and concrete action, but there is a clear understanding that the main focus must be on achieving an agreed peace agreement, he noted.

The ambassador added that no country has yet followed the path of sanctions, but France announced the provision of military aid to Armenia, as a result of which Azerbaijan refused to participate in international meetings that could contribute to the peace process.

Of course, we don't know if those meetings would be useful or not, but this step gave Azerbaijan a reason not to participate. Thus, such steps, including the threat of sanctions, can be a reason for some parties not to participate in peace talks concluded the first resident ambassador of Canada to Armenia.

Russia’s powerful economic levers over Armenia

Hambik Zargarian
eurasianet
Nov 1 2023
Arshaluis Mgdesyan Nov 1, 2023

Armenia's relations with its strategic partner Russia are getting worse and worse and its leaders seem to desire a shift in geopolitical orientation towards the West. 

But a look at Russia's powerful levers over the country makes that kind of thinking seem delusional. 

And Moscow has begun dropping hints of how much economic pain it can inflict on Armenians. 

Armenian officials offer assurances that all is fine on the economic front, but economists and businesspeople are increasingly worried about possible consequences of the political tensions.

About 40 percent of Armenia's exports go to Russia, and Yerevan's dependence on Russia for basic goods is overwhelming. 

Gazprom Armenia, the local subsidiary of the Russian state gas company, owns all of the country's gas distribution infrastructure. Imports from Russia of grain and petroleum products also enjoy a near monopoly. 

Armenia's economy is heavily dependent on migrant laborers sending their wages back home from Russia. In 2022 money transfers from Russia accounted for 3.6 billion dollars out of the total 5.1 billion entering the country.

Warning shot fired

On 24 October the lower house of the Russian legislature, the Duma, postponed debate on a bill that would have recognized Armenian driver's licenses for business and labor purposes. The move was widely seen in Armenia as politically motivated and a hint of the economic sanctions that Moscow could implement in a bid to bring its wayward junior partner to heel. 

 In fact, Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin all but directly said that the decision was linked to what he called the Armenian government's failure to take steps toward granting official status to the Russian language.

 Many Armenian labor migrants find work in Russia in the service industry, including as taxi drivers. They have long sought relief from bureaucratic headaches through the recognition of Armenian driver's licenses. Now that seems less likely than ever. 

Economist Suren Parsyan believes the Russian MPs' decision amounts to a "warning shot."

"This is just a gesture for now, one that could be followed by harsher measures if political relations deteriorate," Parsyan told Eurasianet. 

Economic dependency grows

The steady worsening of political ties between Armenia and Russia has had an inverse relationship with the two countries' growing economic cooperation over the past year and half or so. (Eurasianet reported on the same trend in April.)

After the U.S. and EU imposed sanctions against Moscow over its war on Ukraine, Armenia became one of several countries through which Western products have been entering Russia. 

In 2022 the volume of trade between Armenia and Russia nearly doubled, reaching 5.3 billion dollars, according to Armenia's state statistics agency. Armenia's exports to Russia nearly tripled, from 850 million dollars in 2021 to 2.4 billion dollars the following year. Imports from Russia were up 151 percent, reaching 2.87 billion dollars. 

The trend continues apace. The total trade volume for January-August, 2023 surpassed 4.16 billion dollars, a record level since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Exports from Armenia to Russia in this period totaled 2.3 billion dollars and for the first time exceeded the import figure, which stood at 1.86  billion dollars.

Unsurprisingly, most of Armenia's exports to Russia these days are in fact re-exports of Western products that Moscow is no longer able to get directly. 

Armenian Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan recently framed the centrality of re-export in the structure of trade with Russia in stark terms: He said that while exports to Russia were up 215 percent for the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, re-export accounted for 187 percentage points of this growth while exports of Armenian products accounted for just 28 percentage points. 

The overall effect is that, since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has greatly strengthened its positions in Armenia's economy. And many worry that this growing dependence on Russia could greatly limit Armenia's room for maneuver in the political arena.

"The fact that 55-56 percent of exports to Russia are not raw materials but finished goods, speaks to Armenia's high degree of dependence. And in these conditions, if Moscow introduces sanctions, they will be very painful for Armenia," said Suren Parsyan, the economist, adding that there is little prospect for redirecting these goods to Western markets. 

"Quality standards are different there. It would require overhauling whole sectors of the economy, which is a complicated and time-consuming process. And during this time many businesses would close, which would cause growth in unemployment and a worsening of the overall social-economic situation," Parsyan said.

He added that he has not seen any real attempts by the Armenian authorities to diversify the country's economic relations and reduce its dependence on Russia. 

Economics not influencing politics

There is no sign that Armenia's increased economic cooperation with Russia is having any influence on the growing political crisis between the two countries, according to analyst and director of the Caucasus Institute, Aleksandr Iskandaryan.

He pointed to Prime Minister Pashinyan's recent statement that Armenia does not intend to change its foreign policy vector despite its displeasure with Moscow's refusal to support Yerevan in the conflict with Azerbaijan as well as Pashinyan's recent remark to The Wall Street Journal that Armenia does not benefit from the presence of roughly 10,000 Russian soldiers on its territory. 

"The thing is that, so far, this crisis has not gone beyond the level of discourse. There have been no institutional changes in Armenian-Russian relations. They [such changes] are spoken about, they're discussed, but Armenia remains a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Union. If and when relations deteriorate at the institutional level, interactions will deteriorate at the institutional level as well," Iskandaryan told Eurasianet. 

Arshaluis Mgdesyan is a journalist based in Yerevan.

https://eurasianet.org/russias-powerful-economic-levers-over-armenia

NK Armenians face choice of Armenian citizenship or refugee status

Hagop Kamalian
Nov 1 2023
  • JAMnews
  • Yerevan

Status of Karabakh Armenians in Armenia

The government decision according to which the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are granted temporary protection equal to refugee status is being discussed in Armenia. They are also invited to apply for citizenship of the Republic of Armenia.

Karabakh Armenians cannot understand why they need new passports when they already have the blue passports of Armenian citizens. The government says that residents of the former NKR are not considered citizens of the Republic of Armenia. The passport issued to them at that time is just a “travel document” with which they could travel abroad. Accordingly, the Cabinet considers it necessary to “clarify the status of those displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh”.

International law specialist Ara Khzmalyan considers statements about “travel document” unserious. According to him, all MK residents are citizens of the Republic of Armenia, except for those who have citizenship of another country.

  • “It is not necessary to provide security only with the army” – Pashinyan
  • Meeting in “3+3” format. Opinion from Yerevan: “There are risks, no benefits”
  • “France to help protect Armenia’s skies”. Signing of documents in Paris

This is the position of the Armenian government. According to Artyom Sujyan, Advisor to the Minister of Justice of Armenia, this is the same position Armenia took before the European Court of Human Rights, arguing that “that the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh were issued with RA passports does not mean that they are considered citizens of Armenia”.

“There was an agreement on the basis of which these passports [with the code “070”] were issued to the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh as a travel document, i.e. a document with which it would be possible to leave the country, to travel,” Sujyan said.

Karabakh Armenians are faced with the question of whether to remain in refugee status or obtain citizenship of the Republic of Armenia. They are already considered as persons with refugee status in Armenia because they are registered as residents of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Those who left NK during and after the 44-day war in 2020 are also considered refugees.

To obtain a document confirming this status, they should apply to the Migration Service. Obtaining a certificate is not urgent at the moment. But according to the government’s decision, should they leave the country and return after three months, it will have to be presented together with their existing passport with the code “070”.

If Karabakh Armenians settled in Armenia decide to remain in refugee status, they will lose a number of rights, such as the right to vote and be elected, enter civil service, and form or join parties.

As for obtaining RA citizenship, the law envisages a simplified procedure for them. There will be no requirements for them that are imposed on other applicants. These are three years of permanent residence in the country, knowledge of the Armenian language or familiarity with the Constitution.

The Cabinet of Ministers has expanded the list of those who will be able to receive a one-time financial aid of $250. The government will also compensate the rent and utility costs of the newcomers

A day before the government’s decision to grant temporary protection status to Karabakh Armenians, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in parliament that it was being adopted “as a result of discussions with fellow lawyers”.

Justice Minister Grigor Minasyan, presenting the draft to the Cabinet, explained that the status would enable more effective protection of the rights and legitimate interests of Armenians living in NK:

“Those taken under temporary protection become refugees by virtue of the law and enjoy the rights provided for refugees by the law and international conventions, including the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.”

Margarita Karamyan, a resident of NK and head of the “Return to Dizak” NGO, says that obtaining Armenian citizenship means renouncing one’s former life, even one’s biography:

“By becoming a citizen of the Republic of Armenia, a citizen of Artsakh may lose the ability to appeal to international courts and tribunals and demand compensation for his or her lost home and property. We will also lose our rights to the Republic of Artsakh. And in a few years we will have no opportunity to prove that we lived on the land of our ancestors.”

In the event of receiving refugee status, according to her, former NK residents will still have the opportunity to receive compensation, they will receive the benefits and privileges that refugees are entitled to, but will be deprived of pensions.

Karamyan suggests that this status may contain other, “hidden threats.”

“Won’t it happen that tomorrow the RA government will insist that Azerbaijan guarantees the return of Artsakh Armenians to NK, and all those people who have refugee status must return to Artsakh? In case of the policy of the current RA authorities nothing can be excluded.”

According to Karen Mirzoyan, former foreign minister of the unrecognized NKR, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wants to “destroy the collective image of the people of Artsakh.”

“Having become citizens of the Republic of Armenia, the citizens of Artsakh give up their rights, do not demand return to Artsakh, and the issue of Artsakh becomes solely a territorial issue, although it has never been a territorial issue.”

People of all ages and professions, including students and even schoolchildren, can be found among the voluntary helpers to compatriots who arrived from Nagorno-Karabakh

“The so-called status is just a fiction. And, if I understand correctly, it is a consequence of the demand of part of the Artsakh people themselves to grant them a special status,” he told JAMnews.

He does not understand the noisy discussion on this issue and claims that no one can deprive a citizen of citizenship. When asked whether registration at a new address in Armenia can affect the future realization of the rights of those from Nagorno-Karabakh, including the claim for property compensation, the expert said:

“From the point of view of international law, it will not have any impact.”

According to him, only changes in the legislation inside the state and in the social assistance programs implemented by the Armenian government are possible.

“The work on the protection of the rights of these people should be built on all necessary grounds, one of which is probably the refugee status,” he said in a conversation with JAMnews.

The expert believes that the protection of rights is a fundamental and, at the same time a complex, long-term process. Therefore, in his opinion, in parallel with this work it is necessary to create for all Karabakhis “an opportunity to build their lives” in Armenia.

“The problem is what exactly is offered to people. If the offer meets their needs and creates a predictable prospect for them, no one will complain, it is not an end in itself. If problem-solving is effective, grievances will go off the agenda. The problems are not insoluble.”

The expert suggests involving legal, social and other workers for explanations and, if necessary, initiating legislative changes.

https://jam-news.net/status-of-karabakh-armenians-in-armenia-citizens-or-refugees/

Lemkin Institute issues Red Flag Alert for Azerbaijan in Armenia

Emil Lazarian
Panorama, Armenia
Nov 1 2023

The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention is issuing a Red Flag Alert for Azerbaijan in Armenia, due to the alarming potential for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the coming days and weeks.

"Azerbaijan has long coveted Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which has been discussed in the recent past as the site of an Azerbaijani-controlled “Zangezur Corridor” to Nakhichevan. Considering recent political developments in the region—including the Azerbaijani invasion of Artsakh on September 19, 2023 and the ensuing seizure of the territory—and well-established genocidal Armenophobia endemic in Türkiye and Azerbaijan, an Azerbaijani invasion runs a dangerously high risk of devolving into genocide. We remind the world that genocide is not only expressed through mass murder. As was the case during the recent seizure of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh in September of 2023, genocide can also be expressed through a pattern of massacre, atrocity, and forced displacement from indigenous territory when the ideology behind these actions is aimed at destroying an identity in whole or in part," it said in a statement on Wednesday.

"To avoid a catastrophic invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan, which would considerably threaten the peace and stability in the region for decades to come, it is imperative that Armenia and its allies do everything in their power to ensure that an invasion is unpalatable to Azerbaijan. Western powers, which have encouraged Armenia to distance itself from the Russian Federation (the state that has traditionally protected Armenia from Turkish and Azerbaijani aggression and expansionism—whom critics allege failed to defend Armenia from invasion as a member of the CSTO), must not fail to act while another genocide has begun brewing in the South Caucasus. Granting such a level of impunity to the genocidal atrocities committed by the Azerbaijani government and enabled by the Turkish state will only embolden them to continue their destabilizing agenda of aggression and expansionism in the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

"Accordingly Western powers need to help Armenia strengthen its sovereign borders and its diplomatic position in the region. They can do this by insisting on Armenian control of any corridor running through its territory. They can further assist Armenia in securing its sovereignty by forcing Azerbaijan to withdraw its army from the border regions, by imposing sanctions on the Aliyev family, and by suspending Azerbaijan’s current visa and energy agreements with the EU, as suggested by a European Parliament resolution on October 5. France’s decision to increase weapons sales to Armenia could be helpful, but only if there is coordinated action and material support in the event of an invasion by Azerbaijan. The United States, for its part, can enforce Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act (1992), which excludes Azerbaijan from participation in economic programs created by the act. Section 907 has been waived by US presidents each year since 2002 but, given that Aliyev has proven to be a brutal genocidaire, the waivers must come to a permanent end.

"If the Western world continues to ignore genocide and effectively embrace it as a legitimate solution to intractable conflicts created and perpetuated by regimes like Azerbaijan, it will not only declare an end to the rules-based order of the post-Holocaust world; it will usher in an age of genocide as (if not more) destructive than the one that characterized the last mad rush for control of territory and resources across the globe," the Lemkin Institute said.

COMMENT: Aliyev could still lose in the Great Game he started

John Hovhannisian
Nov 1 2023


By Robert Ananyan in Yerevan November 1, 2023

The Great Game in the South Caucasus continues despite the de facto dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia and the West are in fierce competition to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan, which would also confirm one of them as the prime mover in the South Caucasus.

After its new attack on Karabakh on September 19,  relations between the West and Azerbaijan have become complicated. 

Azerbaijan, which is in alliance with Turkey and Russia to remove the West from the region, recently refused to negotiate with Armenia through the mediation of European Council President Charles Michel in Brussels. The USA and the EU had strongly pressured Aliyev, who broke his promise not to start a war against Nagorno-Karabakh, according to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

In order not to suffer political losses from the occupation of Karabakh, Aliyev first refused to go to Granada to participate in the meeting with Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and then also cancelled the meeting in Brussels. Afterwards he announced in Bishkek that his preferred format is with Russian mediation. He invited the Armenian premier to both Moscow and Tbilisi. This is Aliyev's blackmail against the West to block any pressure on Baku.

In Granada, Armenia received the support of Germany, France, and the European Union (EU), which in a sense is a kind of security guarantee. In the agreed statement, what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh was described as a mass displacement, and there was unwavering support for Armenia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and inviolability of borders. It was also mentioned that borders should be drawn according to the last map of the USSR.

The European Parliament, in a resolution adopted on October 5, condemned Azerbaijan's military aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh and called on the EU leadership to impose sanctions on Azerbaijani officials who are responsible for the ceasefire violation in Nagorno-Karabakh and numerous abuses of human rights. The European Commission was urged to refuse the purchase of gas from Azerbaijan if it takes military steps against Armenia. Parliaments of individual European countries also adopted resolutions condemning Azerbaijan.

The US State Department announced on October 15, that it strongly supports Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. "We emphasised that any violation of that sovereignty and territorial integrity will lead to serious consequences," it said. In short, the West drew a red line before Aliyev, forbidding any military aggression against Armenia. 

Avoidance strategy

These developments made Aliyev realise that he would not succeed in Brussels, but on the contrary, would be told to recognise the territorial integrity of Armenia with an area of 29,800 square kilometers.

This would deprive Baku of the chance to create a narrative to carry out new military attacks against Armenia, using as an excuse, for example, the eight villages under Armenian occupation. The West has forbidden Azerbaijan to attack Armenia and re-occupy the "eight villages or three enclaves".

Aliyev avoided meeting the European interlocutors. Furthermore, he exploited the fact that Armenia had recognised Nagorno-Karabakh as a territory of Azerbaijan in the previous negotiations under the EU format. He declared that this is a basis for extending his sovereignty over Karabakh through a military operation. He no longer has anything to gain from the Western format, and is therefore boycotting it.

Why is the Russian format preferable for Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan cannot demand in Brussels that Armenia provide it and Russia with the "Zangezur Corridor" through Armenian territory to its exclave of Nakhitchevan, but it can do this in Moscow.

At the meeting held in Brussels on May 14, Azerbaijan had agreed that Armenia and Azerbaijan should seek the help of the World Customs Organisation to restore railway and transport connections. This implies the approval of Armenia's sovereignty and jurisdiction over roads in its territory. The West considers the topic of the Zangezur Corridor closed.

Meanwhile, Russia is interested in creating a Zangezur Corridor outside of Armenia's customs, border, and security controls, which it will control with Russian Security Forces.

Unlike the United States and the European Union, Moscow also turns a blind eye to Aliyev carrying out military attacks against Armenia. During the Azerbaijani attacks, Russia refused to fulfill its security obligations towards Armenia, causing a security vacuum. This is a lever of pressure against the Armenian government so that it is forced to cede the Zangezur Corridor to Baku and Moscow. This scheme has been used for three years now.

Another military aggression of Azerbaijan against Armenia would be an excellent opportunity for Russia to finally deploy Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) peacekeepers on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The Kremlin announced the plan to deploy the CSTO in Armenia in autumn 2022, when Yerevan decided to deploy an EU observation mission on its territory.

Therefore Putin and Aliyev invited Pashinyan to Moscow to negotiate. It is unlikely that Yerevan will accept this offer. Yerevan realises that Russia is not a mediator, but a party to the conflict. Russia does not want to establish real peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, unlike the US and the EU. If Armenians and Azerbaijanis stop killing each other, who would the Russians "save"? Russian troups would be removed from the South Caucasus.

Georgia could be an interesting option, but Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili can at most offer Aliyev and Pashinyan a good hotel, delicious food, and a sincere wish not to go to war and reconcile. Georgia cannot present a political plan to resolve the 35-year-old Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Georgia has no leverage on the parties for the implementation of the agreement. If the Tbilisi meeting takes place, it will actually be an Armenian-Azerbaijani bilateral format.

Position of strength

Azerbaijan offers the formats of Moscow and Tbilisi to Armenia in order to exclude the US and the EU from the negotiation process. The absence of the West would be dangerous for Armenia, because Azerbaijan will continue to speak from a position of strength. Armenia has not yet managed to restore the military balance.

It will not sign a bilateral peace agreement with Azerbaijan in Georgia and participate in the Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani plan to push the US and the EU out of the region. If it did, Yerevan will lose the support of the West.

Yet Aliyev could still lose in the "Great Game" he started. Despite the support of Turkey and Russia, Azerbaijan is a weak link for the US and the EU. The West can apply sanctions against Azerbaijan, imposing embargoes on the sale of Azerbaijani oil and gas, and the purchase of arms.

France, one of the leading states of Nato, will start supplying weapons to Armenia and will support the reforms of its armed forces. America's ally India is preparing to deliver a new batch of weapons to Armenia. Armenia has security cooperation with three other Western countries.

If Azerbaijan continues to boycott Western formats, the West can strengthen Armenia's defence capabilities, forcing Aliyev to forget about the new war and return to constructive negotiations. Azerbaijan could even be forced to accept back the 150,000 Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh under the international mandate of the United Nations.

Aliyev's next step will be decided by Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin, who held a meeting in Sochi 15 days before Azerbaijan's September 19 attack on Karabakh.

It is still the case that Azerbaijan may not sign a peace treaty with Armenia and could prefer the logic of the "Cold War". There is a possibility that Azerbaijan will wait until a suitable window for new military aggression is created. Elections are coming soon in the US and the EU.

But if the US and the EU increase the pressure against Azerbaijan now, a new date for the meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan could be announced in the near future under the Western format.

Robert Ananyan is a journalist based in Yerevan, Armenia, who focuses on the political, and security problems of the South Caucasus.

https://www.bne.eu/comment-aliyev-could-still-lose-in-the-great-game-he-started-299409/?source=armenia

Pashinyan: Azerbaijan and Armenia in agreement on principles of peace treat

Toneyan Mark
Nov 1 2023
 1 November 2023

ByArshaluys BarseghyanandIsmi Aghayev

Officials in Baku and Yerevan have expressed hope throughout October of an impending peace agreement between the two countries. 

On Monday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Yerevan and Baku were in agreement on the ‘three main principles of peace and normalisation of relations’. He said that if both parties remained faithful to those principles, ‘the signing of the peace treaty becomes realistic’.

Pashinyan’s statement comes less than a week after he unveiled the ‘Crossroads of Peace’, an Armenian government proposal to establish a series of roads, railways, and power lines connecting Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenia. 

‘Without roads, it will be very difficult to build peace’, noted Pashinyan after unveiling the proposal at the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum, where he also expressed hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan would reach a peace agreement ‘in the coming months’. 

Hakob Vardanyan, Armenia’s Deputy Prime Minister, also announced Armenia’s willingness to buy Azerbaijani gas after the settlement of ‘political problems’.

At the forum in Tbilisi, Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili also offered his country’s mediation in the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. He later had an informal meeting with his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts.

On Wednesday, Nikoloz Samkharadze, the Georgian Parliament’s foreign relations committee chair, said that Georgia wishes Tbilisi would be ‘where the peace treaty will be signed’. 

Despite Armenia’s apparent optimism towards a potential peace deal with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan has sat out several planned meetings with Armenia throughout October.

Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev were due to meet in Brussels with Toivo Klaar, the EU’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, in the end of October before the meeting was postponed.

Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan later explained that ‘obviously’ Aliyev did not find the time to go to Brussels for the meeting, despite Armenia’s readiness to participate in the talks.

‘I hope that the problem is really the specific dates, and in the near future, it will be possible to agree on new dates for the new meeting’, said Mirzoyan.

Aliyev also sat out another big meeting with Pashinyan in Granada in early October.

Following this, Yerevan raised doubts about Baku’s willingness to complete the peace process, with the Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan stating that Aliyev’s statement about readiness to hold negotiations in Tbilisi that Baku’s ‘constant chang[ing] of formats raises serious doubts about whether it is interested in completing the peace process at all’.

Last month, Politico reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told US lawmakers that Azerbaijan might invade southern Armenia ‘in the coming weeks’. 

Washington has described the claims as ‘inaccurate’, while officials in Baku have expressed hopes for a peace agreement in the near future.

In another interview with Politico, Aliyev’s Presidential Adviser, Hikmat Hajiyev, even went so far as to stress that Azerbaijan had no interest in staking claims to Armenian territory.

Hajiyev told Politico that Azerbaijan’s proposed ‘Zangezur corridor’, a road that would connect western Azerbaijan to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, had ‘lost its importance’.

Azerbaijan has previously repeatedly pushed for the corridor, with Aliyev even threatening to establish it by force earlier this year.

Instead, Azerbaijan and Iran began the construction of a corridor to reach Nakhchivan through Iranian territory. 

‘Our agenda was the establishment of transport links and connections within the framework of bilateral negotiations. The project is still on the table, but the Armenian side should show that it is really interested in it’, said Hajiyev.

On Monday, Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov told Azertaj that ‘Azerbaijan is committed to the agenda of a peace treaty with Armenia’.

‘Azerbaijan’s proposal regarding the peace agreement is still valid today. Therefore, the next steps should be taken mostly by Armenia. To date, most of the points of the peace agreement have been agreed between the parties’ he said.

‘We believe that after Azerbaijan fully restores its sovereignty over its internationally recognised territories in Karabakh, the signing of the peace agreement is even more comfortable, easy, and the probability of its signing should be high.’

https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-azerbaijan-and-armenia-in-agreement-on-principles-of-peace-treaty/